You are seeing it through your lens as I'm seeing it through mine.
The fact that the PV has been so close historically is a direct reflexion of what I'm trying to talk about. We are split pretty even and have been for awhile. Then you try to turn around and and demonstrate that 5% is a huge deal. You are doing the exact same thing I'm doing to prove your point. Its all in the spin, and I stand by that. Again, if Trump, and his base, and if by extension the GOP in your mind is everything wrong with America, the scales would have to be tipped way further in that direction for that to be true. 5% is 5%. Ignoring the fact that the entire excess of votes in Biden's favor came out of 1/50 states, it isn't some supermajority that demonstrates we should open up the flood gates to left leaning ideology. And it wasn't the clear repudiation of Trump that some of y'all were hoping for (*ehem, he will win by more than 10%). Its actually even besides the point as it has no bearing in who sits on the throne, it was only included on my end because some on here have been focused on it.
How are we doing the same thing? I'm pointing to the record and to the historic election statistics to argue that we're not all that evenly split this time around, and you're essentially just saying axiomatically out of thin air that things have always been close. If you are going to posit that the election of 2020 is close and that pretty much all recent elections have been close, then you really do need to provide what standard you're using to make that claim- or else there is nothing I could say which could invalidate your starting premise.
"5% is 5%" is an axiom. It doesn't mean anything in isolation. Biden having a 5% margin just by itself is already > than a standard deviation above recent election outcomes. That combined with the fact that an incumbent has not been unseated in a two-man race since 1932 essentially proves that this election had a degree of statistical rarity to be significant, which in turn lends itself to the idea that "the race wasn't all that close." It's not "spin" on my part when I'm saying "hey dude, here are reasons X, Y, and Z based off data A, B, C why this race lends itself to the notion that Americans are not all that evenly split."
The elephant in the room behind this disagreement is the electoral college (aka "the way the game is played"). I don't dispute that the electoral college result came down to "close" 1% margins in a few states. But this fact is not synonymous or equivalent with your claim that "the country" is evenly split. Nor is your pointing out that California contributed significantly to the margin, unless of course you want to claim that 5 million Californians are in some special category that's not included in the group "Americans" or "the country." Ultimately the electoral college being "close" has nothing to do with whether "the country" aka Americans are close on an issue.
Voter turn out is the highest it has been in 100 years. That may 'suck' in your eyes. In the middle of a pandemic, I'd argue that it is pretty impressive we got a >60% turnout. I was one of those people in Texas. Early voting was open and accessible, mail-in was open and accessible. IF you wanted to vote, you could vote. Didn't even have to wait in line. Anecdotes aren't evidence. Again, voting, while not perfect, has never been easier. That applies to all your examples. And if it has to come down to a few districts in a few states, I'd argue that supports my points more so than yours.
Don't get me wrong, I'm happy turnout increased, esp in a pandemic. But having a historic number which indicates that only half of eligible voters engaged in their civic duty is pretty sad in my opinion, and
indeed, we are near the bottom of the OECD in turnout.
As far as TX, you're telling me anecdotes aren't evidence while sharing your anecdote? Lol OK. Here is
an actual new article documenting the long lines and wait times. Here is
another article about Greg Abbott ordering a maximum of one drop box per county even though Harris has 4.7 million people. Also,
Texas doesn't have no-excuse absentee so I'm not sure how you're making the claim that "mail-in was open and accessible.
The country is evenly split. 1.) gap in house majority closing with republicans to gain 6 seats currently. 2.) Republicans will likely maintain senate control, which by the way, comes down to runoff elections in one state. That is how evenly we are split. 3.) polling waaaay off.
No, it's not. 1) A House which has one representative for >700,000 people actually tells us very little about "the country" overall compared to the nationwide PV results of "one man one vote." 2)
Those GOP senators with the "majority" represent 15 million fewer Americans. 3) you can disagree with the numerous popular opinion polls done by Gallup over the course of 50 years, or the plethora of
Fox News Polls here indicating the liberal slant.......but unless you've got some opposing data then your response is essentially you just shoving your fingers in your ears, clenching your eyes shut, and then shouting "no no no no no no no"
Again, the majority of "the country" is clearly to the left when the votes of every American are taken (popularly) into account and nationwide opinions are sought. You have to play the game of absurd House apportionment, a diverging and non-representative Senate, and an electoral college where a voter in Wyoming counts 57x a voter in California to even come close to "spinning" an illusion that things are evenly split.
Vec, I respect you, I'll give you the last word if you want it.
@DocMcCoy To give you a more specific example of the cognitive bias that I think many conservatives are subject to regarding the degree of ideological split in this country, consider the topic of gay marriage. I think everyone here would agree that in 2020 this is pretty much a settled issue when the question is posed to all Americans. Yes, there are some conservative holdouts but by and large 50% of the GOP has moved on to supporting gay marriage, and the other 50% at the very least doesn't care enough about it to legislate against it.
But say we take a time machine back to the late 2000s/early 2010s and I tell you guys that even back then there wasn't an even split in "the country" on the issue. You guys would argue to the death about how it was evenly split, but in reality 60+% of dems supported it, 50+% of independents supported it, but Republicans were so so opposed that even with an outright majority of Americans supporting it nothing happens.
The same thing just plays out over and over. Until republicans get to a near-majority or majority
of themselves on board with an issue they pretend that the rest of America couldn't possibly have an overall majority in favor of an issue. It's what is currently happening with single-payer. A majority of dems and independents have supported single-payer for a long time. Republican opinion is slowly growing. Again, we are going to pretend that the we are split down the middle even though a majority of Americans support the policy....that is until a majority of Republicans (who are in fact an overall minority) get on board. Undemocratic rule at its finest.
www.pewresearch.org
prospect.org
govtrackinsider.com
