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This thread is an update of the 2012 thread created by @sector9 and team, which uses AAMC Fact Tables A-24 and A-25 for the 2010-2012 applicants and acceptees. Unfortunately, the 2012 thread is a bit outdated and some of the links for the AAMC tables are not usable.

The updated thread uses AAMC Fact Table A-23, Table A-24.1, Table A-24.2, Table A-24.3, Table A-24.4, and Table A-24.5 for the 2013-2015 applicants and acceptees that are archived thanks to the Internet Archive: Wayback Machine. These tables are important since they use the most recent data available for the old MCAT before the administration of the new 2015 MCAT. Additionally, this thread serves as a useful supplement to the SDN Application Assistant. All data is copyrighted by the AAMC and is used for educational, noncommercial purposes.

I used Excel and MATLAB for creating figures, and I made them to be similar to sector9's charts. I will also update this thread with other statistical insights based on suggestions and previous reports from the SDN community.

Index

2013-2015 Acceptance Charts
1992-2015 Trends
2015-2016 State Maps
Additional Statistics

Background

The charts use data consisting of cumulative undergraduate GPA (cGPA), most recent MCAT score and acceptance percentages. To calculate your cGPA, you can use the following spreadsheet which is based on the AMCAS Application Grade Conversion Guide.

The MCAT score used in the AAMC data is based on the most recent score for each applicant. But be aware that each medical school may have its own policy regarding how to interpret multiple MCAT scores. The charts can also be used for the new 2015 MCAT scores by utilizing efle's MCAT Percentile Conversion Tables.

The percentages displayed are based on the fraction of applicants who have at least one acceptance at a US MD school. The historical acceptance percentage also varies based on race and ethnicity. The following charts express acceptance percentages as a function of cGPA and MCAT, but there are multiple factors involved in determining each admissions decision. As a result, these acceptance percentages should not be interpreted to mean "your chance at acceptance".

To use the charts, find the colored line closest to your cGPA by using the legend on the right. Next, find your MCAT score on the x-axis. Your historical acceptance percentage is found on the y-axis.

Hope you find these charts helpful and feel free to leave your comments/recommendations below.
 
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2013-2015 Charts for All Applicants

The following charts are used to have a general estimate of your success rates. The contour and 3D surface plots are alternative ways to visualize the data.

Figure 1.jpg

Contour Plot

Figure 2.jpg

3D Surface Plot

Figure 3.jpg

2013-2015 Chart for Hispanic or Latino Applicants

The following chart shows chances for applicants who self-identify as Hispanic or Latino.

Figure 4.jpg

2013-2015 Chart for Black or African American Applicants

The following chart shows chances for applicants who self-identify as Black or African American.

Figure 5.jpg

2013-2015 Chart for Asian Applicants

The following chart shows chances for applicants who self-identify as Asian.

Figure 6.jpg

2013-2015 Chart for White Applicants

The following chart shows chances for applicants who self-identify as White.

Figure 7.jpg

2013-2015 Chart for URM Applicants

The following chart shows chances for applicants who self-identify as Hispanic or Latino, Black or African American, or American Indian or Alaskan Native (combined).

Figure 8.jpg
 
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Below are the 1992-2015 trends in matriculation rate (number of matriculants divided by number of applicants), cumulative GPA, MCAT and LizzyM scores. Note that LizzyM score = 10*GPA + MCAT (out of 45). AAMC data were gathered from Internet Archive Wayback Machine.

Trends in the Matriculation Rate

Matriculation rate can be calculated by dividing the number of matriculants by the number of applicants. This metric can be used to estimate how competitive the application process is for a given year. High matriculation rates correspond to low levels of competition; low matriculation rates correspond to high levels of competition.

Figure 9.jpg

Academic Trends

The following are long-term trends in GPA, MCAT and LizzyM score. The matriculant metrics can be used to assess how selective medical schools are in choosing candidates. The applicant metrics can be used to assess how smart and prepared applicants are over time.

GPA Trends

Figure 10.jpg

MCAT Trends

Figure 11.jpg

LizzyM Score Trends

Figure 12.jpg
 
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The following state maps are based on AAMC Table A-5, Table A-19 and Table A-20. These maps illustrate the geographic distribution of academic metrics and matriculation rates, and so they can be used to assess which states are favorable to be part of when applying. Green states are least competitive and red states are most competitive.

Some states do not have medical schools, and thus applicants from these states would need to apply out of state. States without medical schools are Delaware, Maine, Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Applicants from the last four states constitute the WWAMI region (for Washington, Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, Idaho) and are granted regional preference by the University of Washington School of Medicine.

State Maps Based on Matriculation Yields

Matriculation yields can be calculated from percent of applicants who matriculate in state (IS%) and percent of applicants who matriculate out of state (OOS%).

The yield rate is equal to the difference between IS% and OOS%. Negative yield rates indicate states that are net exporters of applicants. Positive yield rates indicate favorable outcomes for applicants preferring to remain in state. Note that states with very high yield rates are usually averse to OOS applicants unless they demonstrate strong regional ties to those states.

Figure 13.jpg

The sum of IS% and OOS% can be used to measure how competitive a state is for applying to medical school.

Figure 14.jpg

State Maps Based on Academic Metrics

Applicant LizzyM scores measure the academic quality of the applicant pool (i.e. how hardworking, smart and prepared an average applicant from that state is).

Figure 15.jpg

Matriculant LizzyM scores indicate how selective medical schools are in that given state (if there are any) and the academic quality of the state's matriculants.

Figure 16.jpg
 
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Relationship between Acceptance Rate and LizzyM Scores

The following figure shows the relationship between acceptance rates and LizzyM scores based on data from AAMC Table A-23. Since LizzyM score = 10*GPA + MCAT, percent GPA contribution = (10 * GPA) / LizzyM score and percent MCAT contribution = MCAT / LizzyM score.

In 2015, the average matriculant metrics are: GPA = 3.70, MCAT = 31.4 and LizzyM score = 68.4. The percent contributions from GPA and MCAT are thus 54.1% and 45.9% respectively. Any data point where GPA contributed more than 54% was colored blue (GPA contributes more to your LizzyM score than average matriculant), and any data point where GPA contributed less than 54% was colored orange (MCAT contributes more to your LizzyM score than average matriculant).

Figure 17.jpg

Relationship between Competition and Selectivity

Competition is defined as the applicant to seat ratio, which is the inverse of the matriculation rate. Competition is calculated by dividing total number of applicants by total number of matriculants. Selectivity is defined by the academic and related metrics by which candidates are chosen. Selectivity is quantified by using matriculant LizzyM scores.

Competition-selectivity curves can be found by plotting applicant to seat ratios against matriculant LizzyM scores. Curves pointed right indicate higher selectivity; curves pointed upwards indicate higher competition.

Figure 18.jpg
 
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Matthew9Thirtyfive

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Great stuff!
 

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Wow.....there's still around 10% of applicants with a 3.8-4.0 and 39-45 MCAT that don't get into any medical school. Is it because of some big issue, like they have a felony, they don't have ANY volunteer experience, they only applied to 1 or 2 schools, they had a horrible LOR, etc. ??? Things like this scare me...
 

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Wow.....there's still around 10% of applicants with a 3.8-4.0 and 39-45 MCAT that don't get into any medical school. Is it because of some big issue, like they have a felony, they don't have ANY volunteer experience, they only applied to 1 or 2 schools, they had a horrible LOR, etc. ??? Things like this scare me...
most likely interview knocks a bunch out, imo. I'm sure some have bad letters or IAs on record, that kind of thing, but more likely that a good number are weird/awk to sit with for an hour
 

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I cleaned up a lot of stuff and made the thread more organized. I'll eventually add more charts and figures into the initial posts from various prior reports made by @efle @Lucca and many others on SDN since those are extremely valuable.
 
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What explains the dip at the end with very high MCAT scores.
Small sample size of applicants and acceptees. Low GPA + high MCAT is a rare combination especially when factoring in URMs. That's why I excluded GPAs below 3.0 because sample sizes in the teens and single digits make the graphs look misleading.
 
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would like to point out that technically, Jefferson is the in-state school for delaware. But this is great stuff so informative!
 

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would like to point out that technically, Jefferson is the in-state school for delaware. But this is great stuff so informative!
Jefferson has in-state preferences? How about Temple, Drexel, Penn State?

Yeah the six states pointed out don't have any state schools so the applicants from there would necessarily have to move OOS for medical school (and hence why these states are deep red in the Yield Rate State Map)
 
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Jefferson has in-state preferences? How about Temple, Drexel, Penn State?

Yeah the six states pointed out don't have any state schools so the applicants from there would necessarily have to move OOS for medical school (and hence why these states are deep red in the Yield Rate State Map)
To my knowledge, Temple, Drexel and Penn State do not give in state preference. If they do, I can't find it on their website. U Penn gives "slight" preference to Pennsylvania residents.

See the following from the Thomas Jefferson Website:

Screen Shot 2017-04-20 at 8.01.55 AM.png

It's weird to me that they do this when Pennsylvania doesn't have a state school, but whatever. Guess people who live in Pennsylvania just get the short end of the stick.
 
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PreMedMissteps

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Wow.....there's still around 10% of applicants with a 3.8-4.0 and 39-45 MCAT that don't get into any medical school. Is it because of some big issue, like they have a felony, they don't have ANY volunteer experience, they only applied to 1 or 2 schools, they had a horrible LOR, etc. ??? Things like this scare me...
most likely interview knocks a bunch out, imo. I'm sure some have bad letters or IAs on record, that kind of thing, but more likely that a good number are weird/awk to sit with for an hour

Late to this thread, but when I've repeatedly seen a surprising number of very high stats applicants without any acceptances, I've always suspected a bad app list, applying late, essays that don't seem sincere, or little/no medically related ECs/volunteering/research. I bet there are some 39+MCAT/3.8+GPA students that apply mostly to top med schools and probably use their state schools as safeties. Then the top schools don't bite and the safeties have yield concerns.
 
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efle

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Late to this thread, but when I've repeatedly seen a surprising number of very high stats applicants without any acceptances, I've always suspected a bad app list, applying late, essays that don't seem sincere, or little/no medically related ECs/volunteering/research. I bet there are some 39+MCAT/3.8+GPA students that apply mostly to top med schools and probably use their state schools as safeties. Then the top schools don't bite and the safeties have yield concerns.
Thing is, those students almost always do get interviews, even some great interviews. I really think it's just that a few percent of that bin look great on paper but struggle with the interviews.
 

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Many reasons - mostly personality issues that interfere the interview.
 

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Thing is, those students almost always do get interviews, even some great interviews. I really think it's just that a few percent of that bin look great on paper but struggle with the interviews.
Many reasons - mostly personality issues that interfere the interview.

Would you say that arrogance is the issue? Mumbling? Awkward? Random babble? What?
 
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All sorts of things really. I'm sure you'll see some people clearly not handling nerves well at your interview days, like walking out of the interview room extremely sweaty and with shaking hands. Or that person who is like totally silent all day. Or yeah maybe they're arrogant/rude.
 

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Would you say that arrogance is the issue? Mumbling? Awkward? Random babble? What?
All sorts of things really. I'm sure you'll see some people clearly not handling nerves well at your interview days, like walking out of the interview room extremely sweaty and with shaking hands. Or that person who is like totally silent all day. Or yeah maybe they're arrogant/rude.
Aren't some nerves/awkwardness/shyness expected though? We're just a bunch of nerds on an interview that can determine the projection of the next 4 years of our life, it'd be more shocking if were weren't a little sweaty-palmed. I'm asking for a friend...not because I'm awkward/nervous as hell IRL or anything....:oops:
 

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Aren't some nerves/awkwardness/shyness expected though? We're just a bunch of nerds on an interview that can determine the projection of the next 4 years of our life, it'd be more shocking if were weren't a little sweaty-palmed.

I'm asking for a friend...not because I'm awkward/nervous as hell IRL or anything....:oops:
:D :p :laugh:

Everyone is a little nervous...it's a super huge deal.

There must be more than just typical nervousness that is a turn-off.
 
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All sorts of things really. I'm sure you'll see some people clearly not handling nerves well at your interview days, like walking out of the interview room extremely sweaty and with shaking hands. Or that person who is like totally silent all day. Or yeah maybe they're arrogant/rude.
I agree! Total silence is a big one that an admissions rep pointed out to me once. Make sure you talk to the other interviewees when everyone is waiting together because you'll stick out if you're the only one looking down at your phone or staring into space for fifteen minutes. Also, an even bigger thing is to make sure you're engaging in conversation with the interviewer. Someone who doesn't share ideas and thoughts and who can't engage in conversation is not someone you'd want to include in the next matriculating class. More importantly, that person may not even make for a great physician in the future.
 
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Some nerves, sure. I'm not saying you'll get rejected for some nervous "ums" in your first answers. Im talking people that really freak out and ramble/lose coherence or shut down and can't even think of answers for uncomfortably long times.

Like haven't you ever been in a class with presentations and seen people with public speaking issues that become a total mess in an instant ?
 

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Aren't some nerves/awkwardness/shyness expected though? We're just a bunch of nerds on an interview that can determine the projection of the next 4 years of our life, it'd be more shocking if were weren't a little sweaty-palmed. I'm asking for a friend...not because I'm awkward/nervous as hell IRL or anything....:oops:
From my own experience and from what I've gathered, it's usually only the first one or two interviews that are truly nerve-wracking. After that, you tend to get used to them and they flow a lot smoother.
 
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PreMedMissteps

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We've seen posts and MDapps where students report multiple interviews and either multiple acceptances or multiple rejections (with maybe a WL or two). Obviously, the ones who get accepted to virtually all of their interviewed schools are doing something right, and the others are doing something very wrong.

Wish there were hidden cameras where afterwards there could be some honest critiques (faces blanked out) so that others could learn from the successful and the failures.
 

PreMedMissteps

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From my own experience and from what I've gathered, it's usually only the first one or two interviews that are truly nerve-wracking. After that, you tend to get used to them and they flow a lot smoother.
Probably true, but not helpful for the student who only gets one or two interviews.
 
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Thanks so much for making this! Any chance you can post graphs with data from MCAT 2015
 

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Thanks so much for making this! Any chance you can post graphs with data from MCAT 2015
Unfortunately, Table A-23 MCAT/GPA grid for 2016-2017 is misleading for two reasons. First, the table groups MCAT scores of 517 and above into one column, which hides important information. The old Table A-23 for 2013-2015 has two columns: 36-38 and 39-45. I'm hoping the AAMC separates the 517 and above data column into 517-520 and 521-528 to provide this missing information.

Second, the new Table A-23 is essentially half-complete. From the footnote: "In 2016, 45.9% of the applicants applied with scores from the 1991 version (the old version) of the MCAT® exam only. Additionally, 52.4% of the applicants applied with scores from the new MCAT® exam (20.0% applied with scores from the old exam and the new exam, and 32.4% applied with scores from the new exam only)."

I think the 2018-2019 application cycle will be the first cycle consisting entirely of new MCAT scores. So the MCAT/GPA grid from that cycle can provide the new MCAT/MCAT 2015 only data needed to produce the charts accurately.

Until then, I'd use percentile conversion tables to convert MCAT 2015 to old scores.
 
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So I'm a little late to this thread but I watched an interview with an old admissions guy from John Hopkins and he said the reason that someone with a low gpa and high mcat wont get accepted is because it just shows they test well.
 
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Apologies in advance, I'm new to the website and trying to understand the historical acceptance percentages for hispanic or latino individuals.
Can anyone clarify what the bottom MCAT score refers on the bottom of the graph? I'm not used to seeing MCAT scores listed as 5-40. Great resource by the way!
 

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Apologies in advance, I'm new to the website and trying to understand the historical acceptance percentages for hispanic or latino individuals.
Can anyone clarify what the bottom MCAT score refers on the bottom of the graph? I'm not used to seeing MCAT scores listed as 5-40. Great resource by the way!
The test used to be scored on a different scale, where a 25 was the average, and a 40+ was the top 0.1%

You can use this conversion chart to compare to what similar scores are like on the new exam:

Efle's MCAT 2015 to Old MCAT Percentile Comparison/Conversion Tables
 
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Very interesting that high and low SES groups are using the standard low-cost preparation resources (AAMC official materials, Khan academy) at similar rates, and yet the score gap is persisting unchanged. If wealthier and poorer students are both preparing from the same resources these days, why would the wealthier students score significantly higher?
 

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Very interesting that high and low SES groups are using the standard low-cost preparation resources (AAMC official materials, Khan academy) at similar rates, and yet the score gap is persisting unchanged. If wealthier and poorer students are both preparing from the same resources these days, why would the wealthier students score significantly higher?
Access to better public school systems in K-12 ( or being able to pay for private school), and being able to attend a prestigious, private undergrad, or being more likely to be in any prestigious undergrad due to the strong K-12 schooling.
 

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Access to better public school systems in K-12 ( or being able to pay for private school), and being able to attend a prestigious, private undergrad, or being more likely to be in any prestigious undergrad due to the strong K-12 schooling.
But that's the thing, I could buy the argument that the prestigious undergrad with a big prehealth office is advantageous because they'll make sure you know what resources to use.

Beyond that, though? Studying from Khan academy in the dorm rooms of Cornell vs SUNY should make no difference. I don't understand how two people could watch the same video, and one person gain more from it because of where they watched it.
 
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mwsapphire

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But that's the thing, I could buy the argument that the prestigious undergrad with a big prehealth office is advantageous because they'll make sure you know what resources to use.

Beyond that, though? Studying from Khan academy in the dorm rooms of Cornell vs SUNY should make no difference. I don't understand how two people could watch the same video, and one person gain more from it because of where they watched it.
Your undergrad education feeds into your MCAT prep. Aren't you a WashU Grad? Aren't you aware how much higher your lot scores on the MCAT?
I go to a mid-tier state school, and my advisor said she can count on one hand the number of our grades breaking 510 on the MCAT , whereas at your school I'm sure the bottom of the pack are scoring 512+.
Khan academy videos are just for revision- analyzing passages, and the background in problem-solving needed for the MCAT can be better taught at an elite university. The new MCAT ( which I recall you didn't take) uses a lot of passage analysis and knowledge of how to read scientific papers that can be better filled by an elite school, at least in theory.
Edit: I realize I sound aggressive. Not my intention, just seemed like you understood that ( based on some posts I recall) and now you're surprised.This is the exact efle level analysis you're famous for.
 

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Your undergrad education feeds into your MCAT prep. Aren't you a WashU Grad? Aren't you aware how much higher your lot scores on the MCAT?
I go to a mid-tier state school, and my advisor said she can count on one hand the number of our grades breaking 510 on the MCAT , whereas at your school I'm sure the bottom of the pack are scoring 512+.
Khan academy videos are just for revision- analyzing passages, and the background in problem-solving needed for the MCAT can be better taught at an elite university. The new MCAT ( which I recall you didn't take) uses a lot of passage analysis and knowledge of how to read scientific papers that can be better filled by an elite school, at least in theory.
Edit: I realize I sound aggressive. Not my intention, just seemed like you understood that ( based on some posts I recall) and now you're surprised.This is the exact efle level analysis you're famous for.
The high scores at WashU don't come from the student body being rich, but rather from the student body having high SAT/ACT scores, and being heavily weeded out during prereqs so that only the strongest students reach the MCAT. And it's not like WashU students study their course notes to prepare for the MCAT. We used the standard stuff (AAMC and Kaplan/Berkeley in my day, now AAMC and Khan) too.

What this study is looking at is only people who reached the MCAT, and who were equally likely to use the main prep resources. I guess the missing component here was control for previous aptitude tests. Maybe the effect would disappear if they only looked at rich vs poor students who had performed similarly on the SAT/ACT.

That leaves us in a pretty pessimistic spot if it's true - there's little we can do to fix the situation at the level of the MCAT itself, and would have to wait on the K-12 differences and SAT/ACT differences to be addressed.
 
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mwsapphire

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The high scores at WashU don't come from the student body being rich, but rather from the student body having high SAT/ACT scores, and being heavily weeded out during prereqs so that only the strongest students reach the MCAT. And it's not like WashU students study their course notes to prepare for the MCAT. We used the standard stuff (AAMC and Kaplan/Berkeley in my day, now AAMC and Khan) too.

What this study is looking at is only people who reached the MCAT, and who were equally likely to use the main prep resources. I guess the missing component here was control for previous aptitude tests. Maybe the effect would disappear if they only looked at rich vs poor students who had performed similarly on the SAT/ACT.

That leaves us in a pretty pessimistic spot if it's true - there's little we can do to fix the situation at the level of the MCAT itself, and would have to wait on the K-12 differences and SAT/ACT differences to be addressed.
I'm saying those things are correlated due to educational background.
True, but the critical thinking skills are still taught early on, man. You're slowly trained during those weedout classes. How to analyze passages, etc. The new MCAT is much more about analysis and critical thinking skills that can be taught at an elite UGrad.

And right, it's a pessimistic spot to be in.
 
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I'm saying those things are correlated due to educational background.
True, but the critical thinking skills are still taught early on, man. You're slowly trained during those weedout classes. How to analyze passages, etc. The new MCAT is much more about analysis and critical thinking skills that can be taught at an elite UGrad.

And right, it's a pessimistic spot to be in.
I’m surprised nobody mentioned that lower-income students tend to work a lot more hours in order to pay for their educations. All of that time working interferes with studying for the MCAT.
 
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