So what happens when medicare goes bankrupt-o?

[rusyrusyrusy]

Medicare takes up about 17 percent of the gdp right now. All these reforms in healthcare the politicians keep bringing up are an effort to keep medicare sustainable. All projections indicate that that's not going to happen. The CBO data, for example, indicates that the Affordable Care Act has only speeded up the road towards bankruptcy. As things stand right now, medicare is set to be bankrupt as of 2017 (conveniently right around the time most of us will be starting residencies ). Income taxes can only be increased to a certain extent to make up for the defecit.

So, since medicare is the nation's largest insurer, what happens to doctors (and patients) when medicare collapses?

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[gravitywave]

thread fail. stop reading conservative blogs.

The ACA improved the long-term outlook for Medicare solvency according to the latest CBO figures. In addition, I think it's worth noting that Medicare isn't like some kind of piggybank, where as soon as current liabilities exceed current assets, payments to doctors and hospitals will just stop. Medicare is part of the federal government, and as such, the government will simply start issuing Treasury debt to cover any shortfalls should they occur. Just as they do when they allow all of us to borrow more money from the Chinese to cover continued tax breaks for millionares. After all, that's exactly what the government has been doing with the Medicare surpluses - writing IOUs to Medicare!

 

[VikingLegacy]

baleeted

 

[cbrons]

When it goes bankrupt? What do you mean WHEN? It IS bankrupt. The system is INSOLVENT. We've already begun borrowing against current obligations to fund all medicare payments.

The real question is what will they do when it becomes obvious that medicare is bankrupt. Well first of all it won't become obvious until everyone realizes that the federal government is bankrupt (which it already is). And the answer is nothing. People will not be cared for and all the dumb politicians who ruined the country from the age of FDR through Bush and now Obama will be lifting their skirts up while they run full-speed towards the Gulfstream sitting in a hanger at Dulles so they can get the hell outta the country while the going is still good. Know what I mean?

thread fail. stop reading conservative blogs.

Lol conservative blogs. Conservative bloggers don't even have it right. They talk like, "What are we going to do WHEN it becomes insolvent." It already is.

 

[Jrsharp70]

catastrophic health insurance costs less/month than a cheap cell phone bill.

If you polled every uninsured American for cell phone ownership, I think you'd find that people make a choice every month.

Instant argument ender.

 

[IvyHopeful20]

Nothing is going to happen. Medicare will not go away, the money will be found somewhere, either through other cuts or higher taxes.

If you want to commit political suicide, try telling seniors that their medicare will be cut or go away. It'll be fun when I run against you in two years time and win with 70% of the vote - and promptly undo whatever cuts you made.


Seniors vote. A lot. And there are going to be a lot more of them soon. And they'll vote. A lot. Especially when it comes to medicare and social security.

 

[cbrons]

Nothing is going to happen. Medicare will not go away, the money will be found somewhere, either through other cuts or higher taxes.

If you want to commit political suicide, try telling seniors that their medicare will be cut or go away. It'll be fun when I run against you in two years time and win with 70% of the vote - and promptly undo whatever cuts you made.


Seniors vote. A lot. And there are going to be a lot more of them soon. And they'll vote. A lot. Especially when it comes to medicare and social security.

While I do not disagree with your assessment of political reality, the fact of the matter is that seniors will soon have no choice. The government will soon either default on the debt or inflate its way out. In either case, this portends drastic cuts to entitlement programs like medicare and social security. They can vote for as many useless *****s who promise to keep unsustainable programs afloat but no matter how nice you arrange the deck chairs on sinking ship, it will still be at the bottom of the lake unless you start bailing water.

And actually what you said reminded me of this:

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.
​

 

[IvyHopeful20]

While I do not disagree with your assessment of political reality, the fact of the matter is that seniors will soon have no choice. The government will soon either default on the debt or inflate its way out. In either case, this portends drastic cuts to entitlement programs like medicare and social security. They can vote for as many useless *****s who promise to keep unsustainable programs afloat but no matter how nice you arrange the deck chairs on sinking ship, it will still be at the bottom of the lake unless you start bailing water.

I am not claiming that no services will be cut.

My guess is if the budget is under control, it'll be via some cuts to defense and other services, and moderate sized tax hikes on the wealthy. But that's a guess.

But it won't be medicare and social security. If the government will fund anything, it'll be those two programs. Because the simple fact is that if they don't, two years later, there'll be a new government who will. That's the reality.

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.
​

Yea, it's a common quote that people bring up with dealing with this stuff. Suffice it to say I disagree with it completely, but that's another discussion for another day.

 

[DrYoda]

I am not claiming that no services will be cut.

My guess is if the budget is under control, it'll be via some cuts to defense and other services, and moderate sized tax hikes on the wealthy. But that's a guess.

But it won't be medicare and social security. If the government will fund anything, it'll be those two programs. Because the simple fact is that if they don't, two years later, there'll be a new government who will. That's the reality.

Exactly. No one is politically capable of directly cutting MC or SS services in the absence of an acute crisis. They may, and probably will IMO, lower the projected deficits by raising the retirement age. They may also limit growth to where it is "cut" or flat against inflation (which in the case of medicare is bad for healthcare providers).

I also agree the military is near the top of the chopping block list.

 

[Snarkalark]

no politician wants to touch the issue, but that doesn't mean it isn't an elephant in the room. i just hope the criticisms lose taboo because as many posters have said, the cost of keeping it running will soon be taxation ad infinitum.

 

[IvyHopeful20]

no politician wants to touch the issue, but that doesn't mean it isn't an elephant in the room. i just hope the criticisms lose taboo because as many posters have said, the cost of keeping it running will soon be taxation ad infinitum.

Nah it's not that bad. We could fund it easily just by making reasonable changes to the defense budget. And a couple percent tax would be way more than needed.

 

[cbrons]

Nah it's not that bad. We could fund it easily just by making reasonable changes to the defense budget. And a couple percent tax would be way more than needed.

That's because you don't understand the concept of "future obligations." A little cut here or there to defense and a little income tax hike here or there won't make a dent in anything. There needs to be massive cuts in everything from defense to social welfare programs to education and on down the line. And even if we make those cuts today, we are still going to default on the debt because all cuts today would do is eliminate costs tomorrow. We already owe beyond what we can afford. We are past the event horizon. All we can do is be honest about it and begin to develop a more realistic and affordable framework down the line.

 

[Myuu]

Moving to Topics in Healthcare.

 

[JaggerPlate]

thread fail. stop reading conservative blogs.

The ACA improved the long-term outlook for Medicare solvency according to the latest CBO figures. In addition, I think it's worth noting that Medicare isn't like some kind of piggybank, where as soon as current liabilities exceed current assets, payments to doctors and hospitals will just stop. Medicare is part of the federal government, and as such, the government will simply start issuing Treasury debt to cover any shortfalls should they occur. Just as they do when they allow all of us to borrow more money from the Chinese to cover continued tax breaks for millionares. After all, that's exactly what the government has been doing with the Medicare surpluses - writing IOUs to Medicare!

When it goes bankrupt, huh?

 

[michaelrack]

catastrophic health insurance costs less/month than a cheap cell phone bill.

If you polled every uninsured American for cell phone ownership, I think you'd find that people make a choice every month.

Instant argument ender.

If medicare ended, catastrophic health insurance for an eighty-year old would cost much more than a cell phone bill.

 

[DoctwoB]

Nah it's not that bad. We could fund it easily just by making reasonable changes to the defense budget. And a couple percent tax would be way more than needed.

US Tax receipts in 2009 = 2.12 Trillion
US Gov't spending in 2009 = 3.94 Trillion
US deficit in 2009 = 1.75 trillion = 44% of all spending

I'm sorry, but a small change in defense spending will do nothing. Even if we cut ALL discretionary spending (every social program, the entire military, etc.) then we would still be running a small deficit based only on entitlement programs.

Yes its true 2009 was a terrible year for the deficit (recession = tax receipts down and unemployment spending up, + fighting 2 wars). But to say that small tax hikes or small spending cuts will save us is unbelievable ignorance.

Things that will make a big difference, however, are small-seeming reforms to entitlement programs. Raising the age of social security and medicare from 65 to 68 or 70 would save ridiculous sums of money. People on average live 21 years post retirement now, back when those laws were made the average was 13. Seems only fair to raise the age with increasing lifespan

As a side benefit, this would serve as a bit of a health tax as well. Obese diabetic smokers would pay into social security and medicare, but get less out of it due to their reduced likelihood of making it to 70. I'm all for making people bear the responsibility of their actions, but thats just me.

 

[lee9786]

While I do not disagree with your assessment of political reality, the fact of the matter is that seniors will soon have no choice. The government will soon either default on the debt or inflate its way out. In either case, this portends drastic cuts to entitlement programs like medicare and social security. They can vote for as many useless *****s who promise to keep unsustainable programs afloat but no matter how nice you arrange the deck chairs on sinking ship, it will still be at the bottom of the lake unless you start bailing water.

And actually what you said reminded me of this:

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.
​

I tend to align with this viewpoint. America as a superpower is over. We are now witnessing a desperate attempt to sustain the bubble, America; and all of it's mini bubbles contributing to blow it up - healthcare, education, housing, banking, bonds, military industrial complex, Federal Reserve etc. We a consumption driven society powered by the almighty greenback, which is being printed into oblivion. Inflation is imminent which is going to result in a decrease in purchasing power (i.e. savings - Medicare, SS). It's also going to hit the American populace hard as well (think they're not going to start voting when they're reduced to poverty and the govt wants to increase MC taxes among others)? Of course that's if they still can (if we still have the plutocracy I mean democracy) after a likely bout of civil unrest (look to austerity measures in Europe.)

What's the answer for Medicare? HMOs I mean ACOs? Is that really going to make this thing sustainable? It's so sad that nobody's paying attention. Society at large is content to the couch and think their government is acting in the populaces own best interest - which of course hasn't been the case for years (they haven't even been trying to hide it - neither political party). I wish I was more optomistic, but Medicare was a huge issue BEFORE our double dip recession. If politicians were talking about implementing controlled austerity measures I'd have more confidence, but there reaction is to spend more money that we don't have by borrowing from the next superpower China and printing from the Fed Reserve. The MC/SS population (ie Babyboomers) are going to be left high and dry when they can't afford living costs let alone medical expenses. They are starting to see this as they are attempting to work longer as they have been seeing their retirement accounts wither away.

 

[SFO-IST]

the govt does not go bankrupt. it prints more money.

 

[benjee]

the govt does not go bankrupt. it prints more money.

ditto. But recently govt print out defective newly designed money note , and need to reprint them...

 

[IvyHopeful20]

US Tax receipts in 2009 = 2.12 Trillion
US Gov't spending in 2009 = 3.94 Trillion
US deficit in 2009 = 1.75 trillion = 44% of all spending

I'm sorry, but a small change in defense spending will do nothing.

Let's see:

Without touching entitlements

 

[DoctwoB]

Let's see:

Without touching entitlements

So the projected 2015 deficit is 418 billion? I call bullocks. Our current deficit is 1.75 trillion and trending in one direction. upwards. If you want to base your ideas on assumptions only the sunniest of optimists could hope for, then best of luck to you. I mean who can blame you. Its what Washington has done for years.

 

[IvyHopeful20]

So lets see. Using estimates only the sunniest of optimists could hope for (same growth rate in GDP over next forty years as in the previous forty? highly doubtful), you gave us a $500 billion deficit. A 500 BILLION dollar deficit. Like you just solved our problems. The only good thing about a 500 billion dollar deficit is that its not a 1.5 trillion dollar deficit. It is NOT good thing.

Sorry, how is it a $500 billion deficit again? It's early, I'm missing something.

 

[DoctwoB]

Sorry, how is it a $500 billion deficit again? It's early, I'm missing something.

my fault, I misread the NYT sheet. The $500 billion was the amount saved over 5 years and the deficit gap that needed to be closed. Already edited my post due to my mistake.

 

[lee9786]

the govt does not go bankrupt. it prints more money.

If it were only that easy. This works until the world's reserve currency (aka the fiat US dollar) is no longer seen as such. OPEC holds the cards really, and they've been discussing differentiating away from the US dollar to a "basket of currencies." The day people decide it's a bad investment to be holding an American dollar is the day this all starts re-correcting itself. Of course we are seeing this trend.

So if (when?) this happens, US govt does go bankrupt. An overextended Military campaign would make it almost synonymous to the collapse of the U.S.S.R. Either the U.S.A. decentralizes like the U.S.S.R., with power going back to the state, or it could centralize - which has been the trend. The result of course being a move to a one universal government and a one world currency. There's talk of more consolidated currencies (see Amero.) There's talk of consolidated Unions (see North American Union.) Would it happen? Who knows. It does seem there has been an awful lot of mexican immigration with relative ease over the past decade or so. I wouldn't put it past the powers in charge. So in conclusion, I would vote against printing the US currency into oblivion. Probably restoring confidence in the dollar would be the better bet. Looking at the price of gold and silver, it doesn't look pretty.

 

[lee9786]

the govt does not go bankrupt. it prints more money.

You might find this video interesting. Shows how everything is interrelated

[YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k&feature=related[/YOUTUBE]