stay liquid

[2win]

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just an advice for my fellow anesthesia doctors - if you wanna save some money please be really careful with you investments (I mean securities).
Doom and gloom guys.
I am not joking.
2win

 

[cfdavid]

just an advice for my fellow anesthesia doctors - if you wanna save some money please be really careful with you investments (I mean securities).
Doom and gloom guys.
I am not joking.
2win

2win, this is from CNBC yesterday, and to your point. This is one guy whom I feel actually "gets" the severity of market risks in this environment.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37259541

 

[2win]

2win, this is from CNBC yesterday, and to your point. This is one guy whom I feel actually "gets" the severity of market risks in this environment.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37259541

i don't watch the news anymore...
Just charts.
We are going down.
Play the short side - careful.

 

[gaspasser2004]

Timing the market is extremely difficult, if not impossible. It basically amounts to gambling.

Asset allocation is key. You absolutely should keep an emergency fund liquid (cash, short term CD's etc). For longer term goals (retirement), a buy and hold strategy utilizing low cost mutual funds that mimic the entire market is reasonable.

For stocks, there is an intrinsic value and speculative value. Intrinsic value reflects the earnings and growth of a company. Speculative value reflects the other investors guesses on whether something is overvalued or undervalued. In a bull market, the speculative value pushes prices artificially higher because everyone is high on life and in a bear market prices are lower for opposite reasons.

I think having long term investments (retirement, kid's college) in liquid investments is a mistake, even now.

 

[2win]

Timing the market is extremely difficult, if not impossible. It basically amounts to gambling.

Asset allocation is key. You absolutely should keep an emergency fund liquid (cash, short term CD's etc). For longer term goals (retirement), a buy and hold strategy utilizing low cost mutual funds that mimic the entire market is reasonable.

For stocks, there is an intrinsic value and speculative value. Intrinsic value reflects the earnings and growth of a company. Speculative value reflects the other investors guesses on whether something is overvalued or undervalued. In a bull market, the speculative value pushes prices artificially higher because everyone is high on life and in a bear market prices are lower for opposite reasons.

I think having long term investments (retirement, kid's college) in liquid investments is a mistake, even now.

Hell - I am not the greatest investor not either qualified to give advice...
I was just giving you guys a hint....Do your own DD.
Read this post in 4 months from now.

 

[IlDestriero]

I think having long term investments (retirement, kid's college) in liquid investments is a mistake, even now.

I'm not sure I agree with you there. The last go around, I reallocated early when I thought the death spiral was starting. It stopped, for a few months, and DOWN it went. I got back in at the bottom and did very very well. I was contemplating doing it again this week. What's the downside really, do you really think we will miss a big bullish run, big enough to care? I doubt it. it's much more likely to correct down and maybe slowly climb back up. Like the current housing market. It's not going anywhere for a while. Some predicted gains this summer season, it's here- no gains, and Obamas tax credit is gone.
You can always get back into your old buy and hold stuff.

 

[2win]

I'm not sure I agree with you there. The last go around, I reallocated early when I thought the death spiral was starting. It stopped, for a few months, and DOWN it went. I got back in at the bottom and did very very well. I was contemplating doing it again this week. What's the downside really, do you really think we will miss a big bullish run, big enough to care? I doubt it. it's much more likely to correct down and maybe slowly climb back up. Like the current housing market. It's not going anywhere for a while. Some predicted gains this summer season, it's here- no gains, and Obamas tax credit is gone.
You can always get back into your old buy and hold stuff.

Either there is a V shape recovery OR a double dip.
Now - there are advocates on each side.
Use your mind to see how this will go.
Me - I believe that this is a double dip. i could be wrong though.
BUT - i put my money on the double dip - btw you guys are traders?
I am ....
I Love Anesthesia.

 

[deleted126335]

Either there is a V shape recovery OR a double dip.
Now - there are advocates on each side.
Use your mind to see how this will go.
Me - I believe that this is a double dip. i could be wrong though.
BUT - i put my money on the double dip - btw you guys are traders?
I am ....
I Love Anesthesia.

The economy is not the stock market. from 1980-2000 England experienced anemic economic growth yet their stock market returned almost as much as the US. emerging economies experienced excellent growth during these years and had mediocre returns.

6 months ago everyone was talking about a collapsing dollar and fearing soaring commodity prices and interest rates. Now the dollar and treasury bonds have rallied and the market is telling us to expect deflation. Commodities (except gold) have tanked.

 

[IlDestriero]

6 months ago everyone was talking about a collapsing dollar and fearing soaring commodity prices and interest rates. Now the dollar and treasury bonds have rallied and the market is telling us to expect deflation. Commodities (except gold) have tanked.

The only reason that the dollar is up is because the Euro is tanking, and should get even lower. I'm planning 2 trips overseas this year. The airfare may hurt, but I expect the dollar to be strong abroad. If the Eurozone was more stable the dollar would be very weak. We can thank Greece, and their protesting of their own recovery plans😕, for that.
2win, no day trading for me, but I do take some calculated risks on stocks that I feel strongly about.

 

[sevoflurane]

Never put a cent away until this past year. Opened a SEP-IRA and have 50k just sitting there. I'm gun shy. I don't like risks. I've begun to scratch the surface of investing and it's relevance to my retirement plans. 2008 and the last couple of weeks have been very deflating. My parents moved from boston to cali right before the housing and stock market bottomed out. They were months aways from retirement and now are still working.

These are the facts that I think I know:

1. 1931 was the worse year in the stock market, followed by 1937/2008.
2. Over the last 10 years the market is DOWN -.5%, that is not including inflation.
3. I'm glad I didn't listen to my stock broker/financial advisor. I would be down substantially if I had.
4. Day trading has historically done worse than sticking to a plan long term.
5. Some mutual funds want a 5% front load, which means you start behind the 8 ball in an unsure market.
6. Tax free bonds are good, especially for someone in the higher income bracket: 4% return is like 7% return. However, now is not the time to buy. I think there is an inverse relationship between bonds and interest rates.
7. As posted in an earlier thread on SDN, the Clinton years blessed this country with a surplus of billions (500 or so I think). Now we are down to 13 trillion form 4 trillion during the Clinton years. Check this site out... scary: http://www.usdebtclock.org/
8. Our GDP is lacking far behind our national debt. To me, this is a very bad sign. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Debt_Trend.svg
9. You can understand economics and formulas all you want, but I do believe to some extent that the market is like gambling as stated above. I hate gambling if it involves more than $50.
10. I've been told you can use your SEP-IRA to buy real estate. Is this a safer option?

So, if you were new to the game, what would you do?
Keeping your money in your retirement account w/o investing ie "liquid" sounds pretty good to me unless I see a definite bottom.

I will be the first to say that I am naive when it comes to investing. Buy low , sell high sounds like an easy formula 😕 What I do know is that in these times one needs to proceed with caution.
Advice is much appreciated. They don't teach this in residency. 😡

 

[deleted126335]

start here:

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads_Financial_Start-Up_Kit

 

[IlDestriero]

Never put a cent away until this past year. Opened a SEP-IRA and have 50k just sitting there. I'm gun shy. I don’t like risks. I've begun to scratch the surface of investing and it's relevance to my retirement plans. 2008 and the last couple of weeks have been very deflating. My parents moved from boston to cali right before the housing and stock market bottomed out. They were months aways from retirement and now are still working.

These are the facts that I think I know:

1. 1931 was the worse year in the stock market, followed by 1937/2008.
2. Over the last 10 years the market is DOWN -.5%, that is not including inflation.
3. I’m glad I didn’t listen to my stock broker/financial advisor. I would be down substantially if I had.
4. Day trading has historically done worse than sticking to a plan long term.
5. Some mutual funds want a 5% front load, which means you start behind the 8 ball in an unsure market.
6. Tax free bonds are good, especially for someone in the higher income bracket: 4% return is like 7% return. However, now is not the time to buy. I think there is an inverse relationship between bonds and interest rates.
7. As posted in an earlier thread on SDN, the Clinton years blessed this country with a surplus of billions (500 or so I think). Now we are down to 13 trillion form 4 trillion during the Clinton years. Check this site out... scary: http://www.usdebtclock.org/
8. Our GDP is lacking far behind our national debt. To me, this is a very bad sign. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Debt_Trend.svg
9. You can understand economics and formulas all you want, but I do believe to some extent that the market is like gambling as stated above. I hate gambling if it involves more than $50.
10. I’ve been told you can use your SEP-IRA to buy real estate. Is this a safer option?

So, if you were new to the game, what would you do?
Keeping your money in your retirement account w/o investing ie “liquid” sounds pretty good to me unless I see a definite bottom.

I will be the first to say that I am naive when it comes to investing. Buy low , sell high sounds like an easy formula 😕 What I do know is that in these times one needs to proceed with caution.
Advice is much appreciated. They don't teach this in residency. 😡

I dabbled in real estate speculation when I lived in CA. The market was booming. As soon as the writing was on the wall and prices slipped, I cashed out. My investment was about to become a liability. Man was that the right decision!😍
I don't think its a good time to start investing in Real Estate unless your trying to get something for yourself, or your future retirement home on the cheap. Prices could fall again quickly as the economy slides leaving you way underwater. There are also many factors to consider with real estate including increasing taxes, dropping rent, rental management fees and damage to the property. No matter how carefully you screen a renter, there's going to be significant damage after a few years, and most of it is just accelerated wear and tear. Renters just don't treat a house like you would to your own. There are exceptions, but don't expect to get one in your place. One bad rental will cost you legal fees to get them out, many months of lost rent and thousands in damages. My old neighborhood didn't have many rentals, but one got stung by a family that seemed really nice. They were there for about 4 months. Never paid a cent of rent, and did over 20K in damage.😱 All they paid up front was a $1000 security deposit. They were gone like the wind when the 5-O came to evict them. I have a few friends back there that are really in trouble because of some bad property decisions. They're trapped there indefinitely between losses on their home and rental. I'm not sure if you're following CA, but it's in pretty bad shape. I'm glad to be elsewhere.
The mattress might be a good place to stash your loot!

 

[2win]

i don't watch the news anymore...
Just charts.
We are going down.
Play the short side - careful.

I hope you did...
Possible a short rebound coming and after that again DOWN.
Any thoughts?

 

[Southpaw]

start here:

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads_Financial_Start-Up_Kit

Glad to see someone post this. 👍

I'm a resident and therefore have very little to put away, but I'm doing what I can. Any advice from the those in the boglehead crowd would be much appreciated.

I've been reading the bogleheads forum pretty heavy recently, am currently reading The Bogleheads Guide to Investing, and I'm definitely sold on the fact that this is the way to build long-term wealth.

 

[deleted126335]

Glad to see someone post this. 👍

I'm a resident and therefore have very little to put away, but I'm doing what I can. Any advice from the those in the boglehead crowd would be much appreciated.

I've been reading the bogleheads forum pretty heavy recently, am currently reading The Bogleheads Guide to Investing, and I'm definitely sold on the fact that this is the way to build long-term wealth.

-you have taken the first step.
-first rule and most important: Spend less than you make. Resist the pressures of competitive consumerism that so many docs fall prey to.
-Save an emergency fund.
-Pay off debt (don't know the rules any more for student loan consolidation or IBR)
-Don't buy the big house. Bigger house=bigger expenses. On a national basis over the long term residential real estate appreciates @ the rate of inflation. Granted some regions of the country and some time periods have had explosive growth. Undoubtedly will again. Hard to know when and where.
-If you need life insurance get a 25-30 year term policy. DO NOT buy cash value life insurance. (not everyone here agrees)
-pay up for own occ disability insurance (again not everyone here agrees)
-Invest in your ability to earn an income. Keep your practice skills current.

-Keep reading the boglehead forum and wiki. They aso have a suggested reading list.
- Low costs, passive investment strategies, asset allocation strategies, broad diversification, tax management are the foundation of sound investing and building wealth and what has worked best in the past.
- Market timing, individual stock picking, sector bets, option strategies, private equity are almost always bad choices that don't go well.
-Few people treat finance from the most useful perspective-an academic discipline worthy of serious study with scholarly peer reviewed literature.

 

[IN2B8R]

-you have taken the first step.
-first rule and most important: Spend less than you make. Resist the pressures of competitive consumerism that so many docs fall prey to.
-Save an emergency fund.
-Pay off debt (don't know the rules any more for student loan consolidation or IBR)
-Don't buy the big house. Bigger house=bigger expenses. On a national basis over the long term residential real estate appreciates @ the rate of inflation. Granted some regions of the country and some time periods have had explosive growth. Undoubtedly will again. Hard to know when and where.
-If you need life insurance get a 25-30 year term policy. DO NOT buy cash value life insurance. (not everyone here agrees)
-pay up for own occ disability insurance (again not everyone here agrees)
-Invest in your ability to earn an income. Keep your practice skills current.

-Keep reading the boglehead forum and wiki. They aso have a suggested reading list.
- Low costs, passive investment strategies, asset allocation strategies, broad diversification, tax management are the foundation of sound investing and building wealth and what has worked best in the past.
- Market timing, individual stock picking, sector bets, option strategies, private equity are almost always bad choices that don't go well.
-Few people treat finance from the most useful perspective-an academic discipline worthy of serious study with scholarly peer reviewed literature.

Excellent advice! OK, dr doze, bear with me here as I get into my Robert DeNiro voice from the movie "Meet the Parents:" You!, You!, guess who just made it back into the circle of trust?" Well done, Fockker, your stock just went up in my book👍

 

[Narcotized]

I hope you did...
Possible a short rebound coming and after that again DOWN.
Any thoughts?

Didn't you catch the memo? Obama saved us by blowing trillions of dollars on frivolous waste. Guy's a friggin genius I'm tellin ya.

Ok, seriously, you're preaching to the choir here on this one. My stance has seen absolutely no reason to change. The economy is in complete shambles. If you are drinking the media koolaide of this "economic rebound," you might want to step back and look at the situation. It is on life support being propped up with trillions and trillions of dollars of new debt. Double dip my ass; we aint even seen the first bottom of this friggin growing catastrophe.

The economy is one big massive ponzi. It has to grow exponentially forever to support the ridiculous entitled lifestyle people have come to expect. Until new technology comes along to bring us into a new level of productivity, we are presently well overpopulated without the resources to carry us forward. Look at your Gulf of Mexico. Places like Texas and Oklahoma once supported our energy needs. Now we are dependent on far off places and dangerous drilling in very deep waters (no pun intended). The easy oil like other resources are gone forever.

All ponzis collapse. Mathematical fact. Infinity never exists in a finite environment. The debt ponzi will collapse, 100% certainty (barring some miraculous technology such as driving cars powered by water; although we're running out of fresh water, too). Hey you can call me Sunshine all you want. But I'm just the messenger of a message largely being ignored. The situation has greatly deteriorated in the last couple of years. If we are improving then why are we much more massively in debt?

My opinion is I don't see the infinite growth possibilities we had post-great depression to easily pull us out of this, and I see more fiscal problems here than in Europe when you add up federal debt, unfunded SS and Medicare liabilities, new healthcare entitlement, state and local debts, pension collapses, fannie and freddie obligation, and whatever else I'm missing. Spit out the koolaide; it should get very very ugly at some point.

 

[deleted126335]

Didn't you catch the memo? Obama saved us by blowing trillions of dollars on frivolous waste. Guy's a friggin genius I'm tellin ya.

Ok, seriously, you're preaching to the choir here on this one. My stance has seen absolutely no reason to change. The economy is in complete shambles. If you are drinking the media koolaide of this "economic rebound," you might want to step back and look at the situation. It is on life support being propped up with trillions and trillions of dollars of new debt. Double dip my ass; we aint even seen the first bottom of this friggin growing catastrophe.

The economy is one big massive ponzi. It has to grow exponentially forever to support the ridiculous entitled lifestyle people have come to expect. Until new technology comes along to bring us into a new level of productivity, we are presently well overpopulated without the resources to carry us forward. Look at your Gulf of Mexico. Places like Texas and Oklahoma once supported our energy needs. Now we are dependent on far off places and dangerous drilling in very deep waters (no pun intended). The easy oil like other resources are gone forever.

All ponzis collapse. Mathematical fact. Infinity never exists in a finite environment. The debt ponzi will collapse, 100% certainty (barring some miraculous technology such as driving cars powered by water; although we're running out of fresh water, too). Hey you can call me Sunshine all you want. But I'm just the messenger of a message largely being ignored. The situation has greatly deteriorated in the last couple of years. If we are improving then why are we much more massively in debt?

My opinion is I don't see the infinite growth possibilities we had post-great depression to easily pull us out of this, and I see more fiscal problems here than in Europe when you add up federal debt, unfunded SS and Medicare liabilities, state and local debts, pension collapses, fannie and freddie obligation, and whatever else I'm missing. Spit out the koolaide; it should get very very ugly at some point.

Assuming one agrees with your analysis, but believes that timing the end game is not possible-what do you think an individual should do to prepare?

 

[Narcotized]

Assuming one agrees with your analysis, but believes that timing the end game is not possible-what do you think an individual should do to prepare?

Assuming one agrees with your analysis, but believes that timing the end game is not possible-what do you think an individual should do to prepare?

Man, it's so complex and I'll be the first one to admit there are no sure answers to that question. I hate giving financial advice because I can live with taking my own advice and being wrong, but I hate advising others and being wrong.

I feel very confident dollars are on a eventual path to losing major purchasing power while there may be significant economic price deflation in the short term. Large debt will either be defaulted on or printed away. The best long term alternative to cash is definitely up for debate. Real estate is overpriced on a historical inflation adjusted level and should fall further, but massive monetary inflation would help prop up and maybe raise prices. Gold is nice, should be better than cash long term, but you can't eat it and only has value cause we say it does. Pluses and minuses to everything.

If we had a total currency collapse, the old standbys of food, water, and guns I think would retain the most value. As for today, as you say it's a tough call on the timing of events, so everyone has to do what they think is best. I don't think stocks particularly look too good of value at this point, but I firmly believe their price movements are more based in emotion at any given time than value. I am giving more and more serious consideration to giving up city living as I dont like the long term prospects of being in a major city should the stuff hit the fan.

 

[pgg]

Assuming one agrees with your analysis, but believes that timing the end game is not possible-what do you think an individual should do to prepare?

I have long and strong opinions on this but I'll try to be brief ...

I honestly don't sweat the return vs risk investment numbers game. It seems silly to agonize over how much investment risk I'll tolerate (settle for 3% in bonds? risk big losses to chase 8% or 10% in stocks? gold?), when a simple lifestyle choice can increase disposable income so very much.

The simplest, safest, and most effective decision anyone can make concerns choosing where you live and practice. If you're expecting nationwide or global economic bad times, it makes no sense to live someplace with lower wages and a higher cost of living (looking at you, big "desirable" cities). Seriously, a few points difference in the return from investment A vs B pales before the difference you can make with an extra $50-100K/year in disposable income.

Second - and just as important - cities are disproportionately affected by economic downturns and are at much much higher risk for problems related to crime, cuts in government services (esp police/fire/EMS), and civil unrest. I'm not saying everyone should head for the hills and dig a bunker, but there are absolutely massive financial and security benefits to living someplace rural.

So my free advice is to really, really consider how important it is to live in that urban paradise close to the in-laws, and how much it will cost you in actual dollars and other harder to quantify risks.

If we had a total currency collapse, the old standbys of food, water, and guns I think would retain the most value.

10 years ago you'd be labeled a survivalist nutter for saying such things. 🙂 Actually I guess lots of people would still say it today.

While the population of actual tinfoil survivalist nutters out there seems to be exploding (presumably they're the ones watching Glenn Beck and buying his advertisers' heirloom seeds and gold at spot+5% 🙄), I'm running into more and more normal people who are buying their first guns and even storing food. I'm endlessly amused by the ******ed fantasy survivalists with 23 guns and 60,000 rounds of ammo but no food or water.

Then again, I lived in a border hurricane state for a few years - for most people, once it got windy enough to ruin the barbecue, it was time to rush to Wal-Mart to buy milk, eggs, and batteries. Doesn't matter if the disaster is a natural one or an economic one, most people are just passive and will count on the government to help out. Hope and a tent for camping out at the Superdome don't constitute a plan though.

Everyone should be armed at have at least a few months of nonperishable food stored. And that's all I have to say about that ...

 

[Narcotized]

10 years ago you'd be labeled a survivalist nutter for saying such things...

I would have been saying that myself 10 years ago!!

One of the best posts I've read in a while. Lots of good stuff.

 

[Narcotized]

I'm endlessly amused by the ******ed fantasy survivalists with 23 guns and 60,000 rounds of ammo but no food or water.

Better hope you aren't one of his neighbors that has a lot of stored food.

 

[IlDestriero]

Better hope you aren't one of his neighbors that has a lot of stored food.

I was thinking the exact same thing. You don't need much food with a small crew and 60000 rounds. I liked The Road, I'm sure the movie sucked.

 

[deleted126335]

Never bet on the end of the world. It only happens once and is hard to cash in on.
-Massive civil unrest...unlikely.
-Life going to get harder for most Americans...definitely. Probably a semipermanent situation.
-I am Down on Gold. In a way it too is a Ponzi scheme. It has no use other than people value it. And you are betting that someone will pay you more for it down the road.
-Agree with saving lots. Living below your means.
-My portfolio 60/40 stock bond.
Bonds- Short term US treasury or TIPS or CDs or very high grade corporate. Yes I know that they pay s hit right now.
Stocks-55% international Unhedged. Of the Stocks 10% reit also half international. 6% commodity companies. The unhedged position plus REIT plus commodities should do well in a major run on the dollar. Conversely The treasury bonds have done well with the recent strengthening of the dollar.
-I think that we will have deflation before inflation. I think our dollars will buy less, but the most likely end game is a major crimp in our standard of living as opposed to civil unrest and complete collapse of the currency and of government. Again impossible to time. Financial assets real return going forward will be nothing like it used to be.

 

[pgg]

Never bet on the end of the world. It only happens once and is hard to cash in on.

The world doesn't have to end 🙂 for there to be a large impact on our standard of living.

End of the world only happens once, but Argentinas and Greeces and Weimars seem to happen often enough that people we know have lived through them.

Cashing in on an economic downturn or inflation probably isn't a reasonable objective, but steps to preserve wealth and minimize the impact are.

-Massive civil unrest...unlikely.

Agreed. Short-lived riots ... likely. Americans have been known to riot over court cases and sporting events. Unemployment minus the usual check is an even better reason.

-I am Down on Gold. In a way it too is a Ponzi scheme. It has no use other than people value it. And you are betting that someone will pay you more for it down the road.

I also am not buying gold now. Its price has become almost as irrational as the stock market. Gold is a very, very emotional purchase for many people. Other precious metals are probably better buys right now.

People usually don't have large gains by investing in PMs. I think they're best purchased if the goal is a store of wealth rather than an investment that's expected to grow..

Gold will probably hit $2000 eventually, but I'd place better than even odds on it seeing $500 first. Goldbugs say this time is different. Seems unlikely.

-I think that we will have deflation before inflation. I think our dollars will buy less, but the most likely end game is a major crimp in our standard of living as opposed to civil unrest and complete collapse of the currency and of government. Again impossible to time. Financial assets real return going forward will be nothing like it used to be.

I don't see a government collapse in the cards. Currency - probably eventually, but it wouldn't surprise me if they kept the music going for decades still.

Better hope you aren't one of his neighbors that has a lot of stored food.

🙂 I really don't believe it'll ever come to that ... but I'm fairly well armed too, and I don't think the predatory types would last long anyway.

I liked The Road, I'm sure the movie sucked.

Didn't see the movie. One nice touch I remember from the book was that the prepared family with the bunker and all the supplies died in their beds during the original event.

Anyway, I live in earthquake country. The stuff I have is more for getting through short term problems a la Katrina or the next iteration of the LA riots. If China nukes us or an asteroid gets past the Bruce Willis team all bets are off. 🙂

 

[2win]

Didn't you catch the memo? Obama saved us by blowing trillions of dollars on frivolous waste. Guy's a friggin genius I'm tellin ya.

Ok, seriously, you're preaching to the choir here on this one. My stance has seen absolutely no reason to change. The economy is in complete shambles. If you are drinking the media koolaide of this "economic rebound," you might want to step back and look at the situation. It is on life support being propped up with trillions and trillions of dollars of new debt. Double dip my ass; we aint even seen the first bottom of this friggin growing catastrophe.

The economy is one big massive ponzi. It has to grow exponentially forever to support the ridiculous entitled lifestyle people have come to expect. Until new technology comes along to bring us into a new level of productivity, we are presently well overpopulated without the resources to carry us forward. Look at your Gulf of Mexico. Places like Texas and Oklahoma once supported our energy needs. Now we are dependent on far off places and dangerous drilling in very deep waters (no pun intended). The easy oil like other resources are gone forever.

All ponzis collapse. Mathematical fact. Infinity never exists in a finite environment. The debt ponzi will collapse, 100% certainty (barring some miraculous technology such as driving cars powered by water; although we're running out of fresh water, too). Hey you can call me Sunshine all you want. But I'm just the messenger of a message largely being ignored. The situation has greatly deteriorated in the last couple of years. If we are improving then why are we much more massively in debt?

My opinion is I don't see the infinite growth possibilities we had post-great depression to easily pull us out of this, and I see more fiscal problems here than in Europe when you add up federal debt, unfunded SS and Medicare liabilities, new healthcare entitlement, state and local debts, pension collapses, fannie and freddie obligation, and whatever else I'm missing. Spit out the koolaide; it should get very very ugly at some point.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/...from-financial-authorities-all-over-the-globe
👍👍👍

 

[2win]

I will reply (with satisfaction ...) to myself -
I was right.
Friday was only the beginning.
2win

 

[pgg]

I will reply (with satisfaction ...) to myself -
I was right.
Friday was only the beginning.
2win

Congratulations, you predicted the direction of a small fluctuation in an irrational market over a period of 15 days. Yay.

Will you be back to reply (with disappointment ...) when the irrational market corrects the correction of a bubble in a subcorrection in the + direction by 200 points on Monday (day 17)? 🙂

The roulette table is thataway -->

 

[2win]

Congratulations, you predicted the direction of a small fluctuation in an irrational market over a period of 15 days. Yay.

Will you be back to reply (with disappointment ...) when the irrational market corrects the correction of a bubble in a subcorrection in the + direction by 200 points on Monday (day 17)? 🙂

The roulette table is thataway -->

The prediction "of a small fluctuation in an irrational market over a period of 15 days" means a return of 10% at least for an average stock holder. The 200 points on Monday will not happen most likely. ANd if it is - I'll be long for that and short at the overbought.
It was years ago when I had a "disappointment".
That was the original message - "stay liquid" - and it was stated like that because I realize that some of you guys don't have the knowledge, time and experience to play this game.
2win

 

[IlDestriero]

I'm staying liquid. I just bought 2 cases of wine and 6 more bottles of single malt.😍 Sippin' some Glenfarclas 21 yr old this evening. Ahhh... so Highland.😍
The Glenfarclas 21 is a fantastic malt. The nose is really deep and complex. On the palate it does not disappoint with tremendous balance and a long lightly smoked finish. 92/100.
Cheers.

 

[2win]

I'm staying liquid. I just bought 2 cases of wine and 6 more bottles of single malt.😍 Sippin' some Glenfarclas 21 yr old this evening. Ahhh... so Highland.😍
Cheers.

THAT'S MY BUDDY!!!!!

CHEERS ILDESTRIERO - the future belongs to us!!

 

[deleted126335]

I will reply (with satisfaction ...) to myself -
I was right.
Friday was only the beginning.
2win

The question is did you put your money where your mouth is? I am close to a rebalancing band. If the market drops another 3% or so I will be there and sell bonds and buy stocks. Hope it gets there.

 

[2win]

The question is did you put your money where your mouth is? I am close to a rebalancing band. If the market drops another 3% or so I will be there and sell bonds and buy stocks. Hope it gets there.

I did.
It will drop more than 3%. Wait and see.
2win

 

[Narcotized]

Probably the only thing keeping this market propped up is massive monetary inflation. I don't see any reaon otherwise for optimism. I'm not touching it. A few thousand point drop wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Obviously you can make (or lose) money playing the bounces and dips, but as far as buy and hold, my opinion is it's dead money in real value for many many years. Again, just my opinion.

 

[deleted126335]

I did.
It will drop more than 3%. Wait and see.
2win

I've shared my portfolio:

-My portfolio 60/40 stock bond.
Bonds- Short term US treasury or TIPS or CDs or very high grade corporate. Yes I know that they pay s hit right now.
Stocks-55% international Unhedged. Of the Stocks 10% reit also half international. 6% commodity companies. The unhedged position plus REIT plus commodities should do well in a major run on the dollar. Conversely The treasury bonds have done well with the recent strengthening of the dollar.Heavy tilt to small and value.

What's yours look like?

 

[2win]

I've shared my portfolio:

-My portfolio 60/40 stock bond.
Bonds- Short term US treasury or TIPS or CDs or very high grade corporate. Yes I know that they pay s hit right now.
Stocks-55% international Unhedged. Of the Stocks 10% reit also half international. 6% commodity companies. The unhedged position plus REIT plus commodities should do well in a major run on the dollar. Conversely The treasury bonds have done well with the recent strengthening of the dollar.Heavy tilt to small and value.

What's yours look like?

100% stocks.
Do not forget that I am a trader.
🙂

 

[2win]

The question is did you put your money where your mouth is? I am close to a rebalancing band. If the market drops another 3% or so I will be there and sell bonds and buy stocks. Hope it gets there.

hey Urge - happy now?
2win
dow 10146

 

[deleted126335]

hey Urge - happy now?
2win
dow 10146

Still hasn't gotten there yet. S&P 500 at the time of that post was about 1050. Today is about 1070. Market is actually up since that post. Foreign stocks up slightly more. Sticking to my rebalancing thresholds.

 

[Lonestar]

young doc here.

My 401k: 40% emerging market fund, 35% S&P500 index mutual fund, 25% mid cap fund (half the stocks from emerging markets).

Trading account: Dividend paying stocks. Altria, AT&T and Verizon. Looking to add PM.

Saving 20% downpayment for my house. Have lived like a resident for almost 2yrs now. Will probably buy a house in next yr.

 

[2win]

young doc here.

My 401k: 40% emerging market fund, 35% S&P500 index mutual fund, 25% mid cap fund (half the stocks from emerging markets).

Trading account: Dividend paying stocks. Altria, AT&T and Verizon. Looking to add PM.

Saving 20% downpayment for my house. Have lived like a resident for almost 2yrs now. Will probably buy a house in next yr.

Lonestar,
the original post was intended as an "advice" from a trader 🙂 who believes that the stock market is poised for a dive.
I base my prediction on a possible head and shoulder formation in SPY and also on the theory of deflation - see Elliot Wave - Mr.Prechter.
The bear market looking on CTI is here to stay. The average time is 10-15 years. Yes - we'll have rallies and we supposed to take advantage of them. If the time and knowledge doesn't allow you to to that - it is smart to stau 'liquid" and when the bottom will be reached - BUY.
The dollar will gain strength and also the bonds...
The price of gold is predicted to drop - I don't know...yet.
If you read the news - the Feds keeping the interest rate almost 0 - you know that the recovery is far away.
Soon will come the other bomb - the pension funds - unable to pay anymore..
2win

 

[2win]

Still hasn't gotten there yet. S&P 500 at the time of that post was about 1050. Today is about 1070. Market is actually up since that post. Foreign stocks up slightly more. Sticking to my rebalancing thresholds.

june 29/2010
dow 9976

 

[deleted126335]

june 29/2010
dow 9976

Still not quite there yet. Sticking to my target allocation. Next purchase will be probably be international small cap as they have tanked more due to appreciating dollar.

 

[sevoflurane]

6/30 15:55 Midwest time. Dow = 9769 staying liquid right now... how low will it go this time? When are you gonna through some $$$ into the market?

 

[2win]

6/30 15:55 Midwest time. Dow = 9769 staying liquid right now... how low will it go this time? When are you gonna through some $$$ into the market?

If Prechter is right....we'll retest dow 4000.
Hard to say - and I hate to give advice for entrance and exit points.
I work myself hard to get better at this.
Wait until you'll have a clear sign for a bullish market (and I speak for intermediate trend).
Otherwise play short.
I have money in the market (and I had..) on the short side.
The last months were a blessing for me...Makes me quit anesthesia almost.
I'll try to post some of my picks either long or short. Study them and make your mind.
I hope you guys listened at my first advice - could save you a lot of money..
2win

 

[Narcotized]

.

 

[deleted126335]

Tax loss flipped a large cap value ETF for another and added a few bucks to the position consistent with my allocation today.


""I feel no shame at being found still owning a share when the bottom of the market comes… I would go much further than that. I should say that it is from time to time the duty of a serious investor to accept the depreciation of his holdings with equanimity and without reproaching himself. Any other policy is anti-social, destructive of confidence and incompatible with the working of the economic system. An investor…should be aiming primarily at long-period results, and should be solely judged by these.""


-John Maynard Keynes

 

[cfdavid]

Still hasn't gotten there yet. S&P 500 at the time of that post was about 1050. Today is about 1070. Market is actually up since that post. Foreign stocks up slightly more. Sticking to my rebalancing thresholds.

doze, i'm not responding specifically to you, but rather making a general point along the lines of what Narc said.

here's a chart of the S&P500 index going back 5 years.

if you're not a trader, "buy and hold" is for fools. history is clearly telling us this. times have changed.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=SPX:IND

if memory serves me, going back 10 years would be even more telling.

cf

 

[Narcotized]

.

 

[Narcotized]

.

 

[Narcotized]

President Barack Obama said the economy is "headed in the right direction,"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ell-125-000-in-june-jobless-rate-at-9-5-.html