The average LizzyM score of SDN!

[ZedsDed]

One of the most frequent charges leveled against SDN is that the site is home to too many high-stats applicants who give an imbalanced view of the admissions process. Well, let's find out if this is true!

A few things:

1) LizzyM formula for those who have taken the old MCAT:
(GPA*10+MCAT)

2) If you have taken the new MCAT, please use the chart below to convert your score (all credit goes to @efle) and plug it into the above formula.

3) Please do NOT use grade replacement. Use AMCAS guidelines to calculate your GPA if necessary.
4) If you have taken the MCAT multiple times, please use your most recent score.
5) Please do NOT participate unless you have completed most of your prereqs and have taken the MCAT (duh.)
6) For those who just want to view the data -- I will post the results once the poll closes. Have patience please.

Hopefully I can get a large enough sample size!

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[medic86]

Raw? Or LizzyM + 5 for military?

 

[ZedsDed]

Raw? Or LizzyM + 5 for military?

Yeah there's all kinds of confounders. I can't complicate it too much or people won't participate

 

[ZedsDed]

81+ checking in (no estat) (lol)

I have no idea what an "estat" is my friend

 

[Toutie]

oops!

 

[Lawpy]

My prediction:

Spoiler: Don't read this until you voted

SDN LizzyM scores will average at least a 75

 

[WedgeDawg]

I wonder how much sample bias there is going to be. People with higher scores will likely be more inclined to vote.

 

[cyang]

how the hell do 7 people have 81+ LizzyMs?????????? That's like a 4.0 and 41+ MCAT right?

 

[GrapesofRath]

My personal guess

The LizzyM average of people who take part in this survey: 72

The real LizzyM average of all SDNers(this sample is going to be heavily skewed towards the top scores by self reporting bias): 69

 

[Pagan FutureDoc]

how the hell do 7 people have 81+ LizzyMs?????????? That's like a 4.0 and 41+ MCAT right?

It's that selection all bias wedgedawg was talking about.

 

[Lannister]

how the hell do 7 people have 81+ LizzyMs?????????? That's like a 4.0 and 41+ MCAT right?

People with numbers like that are more likely to answer the survey. Someone who has a low LizzyM score probably isn't as willing to make that known.

 

[Lucca]

Based on the survey I did in December, with n=100 the median SDN LizzyM was between 66-70.

Only 1 respondent had an 80+ LizzyM

 

[Cyberdyne 101]

Based on the survey I did in December, with n=100 the median SDN LizzyM was between 66-70.

Only 1 respondent had an 80+ LizzyM

I had similar thoughts. In addition, 81+ really means 82 and above in zedsded's poll. 8 people?! No freaking way...

Edit: I just realized that the last category could include someone with an 81.2 LizzyM-duh. Still though...

 

[Lawpy]

how the hell do 7 people have 81+ LizzyMs?????????? That's like a 4.0 and 41+ MCAT right?

I had similar thoughts. In addition, 81+ really means 82 and above in zedsded's poll. 8 people?! No freaking way...

Edited to include a complete clip

 

[efle]

I'm also skeptical of the 81+ frequency, but could just be from overly optimistic conversions of scores above 523 (eg treating 526 as a 43). Or just trollin'

 

[efle]

Really should just have the max bin be 79+ since that would already be a 4.00 and 100th percentile MCAT!

 

[WedgeDawg]

Really should just have the max bin be 79+ since that would already be a 4.00 and 100th percentile MCAT!

agree

 

[justadream]

The ironic thing is that this survey designed to uncover the voluntary response bias of SDN suffers from it itself.

 

[ZedsDed]

People with numbers like that are more likely to answer the survey. Someone who has a low LizzyM score probably isn't as willing to make that known.

I knew that was going to happen though it's highly illogical. The poll is anonymous (as is SDN at large.)

 

[ZedsDed]

I'm also skeptical of the 81+ frequency, but could just be from overly optimistic conversions of scores above 523 (eg treating 526 as a 43). Or just trollin'

Considering that I was only expecting like 2-3 80+ scores, I can probably safely toss out the anomalies (*cough* trolls) without really affecting the actual mean/distribution.

 

[ZedsDed]

Based on the survey I did in December, with n=100 the median SDN LizzyM was between 66-70.

Only 1 respondent had an 80+ LizzyM

That's a pretty wide disparity from what I'm seeing so far, though your data is probably more representative of reality.

 

[ZedsDed]

Really should just have the max bin be 79+ since that would already be a 4.00 and 100th percentile MCAT!

I'm hoping the differentiation helped separate out the authentic from the trolls since the sample of 81+ SHOULD be tiny to begin with.

 

[Mad Jack]

The ironic thing is that this survey designed to uncover the voluntary response bias of SDN suffers from it itself.

Self selection of the self selected.

When stats come up on SDN in a nutshell.

 

[Lucca]

That's a pretty wide disparity from what I'm seeing so far, though your data is probably more representative of reality.

Yes your numbers seem shifted to the right. I expect SDNers to be right at the matriculant averages and a bit above the applicant averages. Although I do think SDN has a lot of very bright students who are and will continue to be very academically successful it's still a pretty diverse community in more ways than one.

 

[andybshaker]

Just as a thought experiment: For you to have a LizzyM score of 81+, you need an MCAT score of at least 41. That's considered the 100th percentile, so let's estimate it at about 99.5. Let's say 86,000 people take the MCAT every year (that's how many took it in 2011 according to a quick google search.) That means that about 430 people each year achieve that score. Let's say that every single person who earned a 41 or above for the past three years was on SDN right now. That's 1290 people. Assume that each one of them has a 4.0 GPA. All of these people combined constitute about one third of the people online right now, and this poll says that 8.1% of SDN users have a LizzyM above 81, and 13% over 79.

 

[ZedsDed]

Just as a thought experiment: For you to have a LizzyM score of 81+, you need an MCAT score of at least 41. That's considered the 100th percentile, so let's estimate it at about 99.5. Let's say 86,000 people take the MCAT every year (that's how many took it in 2011 according to a quick google search.) That means that about 430 people each year achieve that score. Let's say that every single person who earned a 41 or above for the past three years was on SDN right now. That's 1290 people. Assume that each one of them has a 4.0 GPA. All of these people combined constitute about one third of the people online right now, and this poll says that 8.1% of SDN users have a LizzyM above 81, and 13% over 79.

Yes. As myself and pretty much everyone have said, a handful of people are obviously trolling.

 

[efle]

Just as a thought experiment: For you to have a LizzyM score of 81+, you need an MCAT score of at least 41. That's considered the 100th percentile, so let's estimate it at about 99.5. Let's say 86,000 people take the MCAT every year (that's how many took it in 2011 according to a quick google search.) That means that about 430 people each year achieve that score. Let's say that every single person who earned a 41 or above for the past three years was on SDN right now. That's 1290 people. Assume that each one of them has a 4.0 GPA. All of these people combined constitute about one third of the people online right now, and this poll says that 8.1% of SDN users have a LizzyM above 81, and 13% over 79.

The old MCAT gave percentiles to the 0.x% and a 41 was 99.9th percentile. The fraction of that 0.1% with a perfect 4.00 is probably what, half at most? No way these numbers are legit

 

[andybshaker]

Yes. As myself and pretty much everyone have said, they are obviously trolling.

Right. I just don't think this methodology will give you anywhere close to an accurate average. I would be interested in somehow looking at random LizzyM scores reported in WAMC over a large sample size. When people are actually seeking advice it is far less likely for them to troll, and it doesn't have as strong a sample bias.

 

[andybshaker]

The old MCAT gave percentiles to the 0.x% and a 41 was 99.9th percentile. The fraction of that 0.1% with a perfect 4.00 is probably what, half at most? No way these numbers are legit

Interesting! I did not know that. Alright, so using the same numbers from above means about 86 people per year get a 41 on the MCAT. Let's be generous and round that to 100. So since 2013, we have 300 people with a 41, and let's say 100% of them got a 4.0 (again, a stretch...but if you get a 41 you're some kind of super-genius so it's probably not that far off). If all of them were online right now, it would be 11% of online SDN users.

 

[deleted630732]

Raw? Or LizzyM + 5 for military?

Hmmm... you'll have to explain to me the military rule? I'm not familiar with the concept. Does this mean people who have served have a heavy advantage compared to their non-service counterparts? If that is the case why?

 

[efle]

Hmmm... you'll have to explain to me the military rule? I'm not familiar with the concept. Does this mean people who have served have a heavy advantage compared to their non-service counterparts? If that is the case why?

Yes, vet status is a massive boost to your app. Can show serious discipline, commitment, ability to operate under pressure, potentially leadership, bunch of other goodies. And of course the military itself needs docs and runs its own medical school plus residency programs, and they charge you years of service instead of $$.

 

[efle]

Thanks so much! That's really fascinating. I do see the overlap between those characteristics and ability to succeed in medical school. I would have guessed that it would help an application, but I never realized just how much weight it has.

Goro frequently mentions it as one of the most impressive things you can have on your resume, along with time serving in the major humanitarian organizations for obvious reasons.

 

[GrapesofRath]

Goro frequently mentions it as one of the most impressive things you can have on your resume, along with time serving in the major humanitarian organizations for obvious reasons.

Gyngyn will tell you its THE most impressive EC you can ever have hands down(LizzyM has also said there's no other EC that has that kind of impact on admissions comittees). Those in the military have demonstrated a level of service, discipline and commitment to sacrifice for others you wont find anywhere else; you couldnt better describe the characteristics you would want in a physician. I have absolutely zero problem with a 3.3/27 military candidate getting in over a hoard of more traditional applicants with their 3.7/31 equivalents at a lower tier school. Hell give me the 3.3/27 ORM military vet over the 3.3/27 traditional URM app any day of the week.

 

[efle]

Gyngyn will tell you its THE most impressive EC you can ever have hands down(LizzyM has also said there's no other EC that has that kind of impact on admissions comittees). Those in the military have demonstrated a level of service, discipline and commitment to sacrifice for others you wont find anywhere else; you couldnt better describe the characteristics you would want in a physician. I have absolutely zero problem with a 3.3/27 military candidate getting in over a hoard of more traditional applicants with their 3.7/31 equivalents at a lower tier school. Hell give me the 3.3/27 ORM military vet over the 3.3/27 traditional URM app any day of the week.

Yeah, I can imagine especially those that had a leadership role are a standout package. Though I don't think the particular value in URM can be compared with any others.

 

[Cotterpin]

I'm guessing that some of those 40+ responders are those people who make posts that read like "I have a 4.0 and I'm planning to score at least 523 on the MCAT when I take it next year. "

 

[md-2020]

To be fair, 81+ applicants are probably 1. more likely to find and 2. more likely to spend time using and 3. respond to such epeen polls on sites like SDN. Thus far I see 12 respondents claim 81+; not to be "That guy," but I don't think that number is far out of proportion for a high traffic site such as this. Anecdotally, not counting myself, I am reasonably confident I can name at least 4 users who belong in that category. Do I think SDN stats are pretty high compared to IRL? Yes. Do I think most of the 81+ respondents aren't actually 81+? Probably not.

I think it's more of a bias towards lower scores being under-reported rather than top scores being trolled or whatever. My 2c

 

[efle]

To be fair, 81+ applicants are probably 1. more likely to find and 2. more likely to spend time using and 3. respond to such epeen polls on sites like SDN. Thus far I see 12 respondents claim 81+; not to be "That guy," but I don't think that number is far out of proportion for a high traffic site such as this. Anecdotally, not counting myself, I am reasonably confident I can name at least 4 users who belong in that category. Do I think SDN stats are pretty high compared to IRL? Yes. Do I think most of the 81+ respondents aren't actually 81+? Probably not.

I think it's more of a bias towards lower scores being under-reported rather than top scores being trolled or whatever. My 2c

What happened to your MDApps link

 

[GrapesofRath]

What happened to your MDApps link

Yeah honestly I'm interested in hearing if there were any schools he DIDNT get into, last I saw a few months ago he had at least a dozen top 20 II's

 

[md-2020]

What happened to your MDApps link

Yeah honestly I'm interested in hearing if there were any schools he DIDNT get into, last I saw a few months ago he had at least a dozen top 20 II's

I forgot my password quite a while ago, and can't update it anymore. Thus I de-linked it from SDN, since it no longer serves a purpose.

Nah, I've gotten holds and rejects haha.

 

[GrapesofRath]

I forgot my password quite a while ago, and can't update it anymore. Thus I de-linked it from SDN, since it no longer serves a purpose.

Nah, I've gotten holds and rejects haha.

You have an idea yet of where youll go next year?

 

[efle]

You have an idea yet of where youll go next year?

Iirc many Top 20s don't give final decisions until March

 

[md-2020]

You have an idea yet of where youll go next year?

Iirc many Top 20s don't give final decisions until March

Not finalized yet, thus far I have only received a small handful of decisions, and--equally importantly--on $$

 

[ZedsDed]

220 participants so far. I'll let it run for a couple more days.

 

[shoopshoop]

I forgot my password quite a while ago, and can't update it anymore. Thus I de-linked it from SDN, since it no longer serves a purpose.

Nah, I've gotten holds and rejects haha.

where have you been rejected? is it mostly yield protection?

 

[md-2020]

220 participants so far. I'll let it run for a couple more days.

Just let it run forever so I can necrobump this in a decade when (hopefully) we'll all be attendings

where have you been rejected? is it mostly yield protection?

I wouldn't want to speculate at the risk of inflating my ego past its already unrealistic proportion

 

[efle]

where have you been rejected? is it mostly yield protection?

Probably not pure and simple yield protecting for stats, he's one of them lopsided applicants with sGPA down by the 10th percentiles but MCAT at 90ths

 

[shoopshoop]

Probably not pure and simple yield protecting for stats, he's one of them lopsided applicants with sGPA down by the 10th percentiles but MCAT at 90ths

Right, but it seems that his ECs would scream 'top tier' so schools outside top 20 might be reluctant to interview him.

I was surprised when he didn't have an interview at WashU particularly, with their love for high MCATs, but now I see his Mdapps just isn't up to date!

 

[Dreamstoo]

SDN pre meds are in a minority. I only know of 2 people who had a 73+ LizzyM who have applied in the past 5-10 year (a 3.8/35 and a 3.7/38).

 

[efle]

Right, but it seems that his ECs would scream 'top tier' so schools outside top 20 might be reluctant to interview him.

I was surprised when he didn't have an interview at WashU particularly, with their love for high MCATs, but now I see his Mdapps just isn't up to date!

I think for some schools, an Asian applicant would need a Nobel Prize and Medal of Honor to be interviewed with an sGPA of 0.2 below the 10th percentile. WashU is a notoriously heavy selector for high numbers.

 

[Halcyon32]

I'd also like to point out the fact that the poll is only viewable if you vote. Many people haven't even taken the MCAT yet but will likely vote anyways to be able to see the results, so I'm sure there's a good amount of inaccurate votes here.