The future of Primary Care doesn't look good

[Ho0v-man]

That is not AI.

A surgeon presumably would still be able to ask a staff radiologist about the scan. Its just that the demand for radiologists would be lower since AI could make preliminary reads. There will come a point in human progress where society should trust the opinion of a computer over that of a single radiologist.

I hope you are not serious with your analysis. This is zero question that AI will take over most human jobs *in general*. That includes radiology and pathology.

Cool. Glad you’re an expert.

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[Ho0v-man]

I did comp sci for 4 years and have a basic enough understanding of humans, so yes.

Yeah but are you a radiologist? This gets brought up a lot by people who don’t really understand a lot about radiology. There’s even a recent thread on the rads forum here by someone who was very certain as to how exactly AI would impact radiology. He/she was majorly backpedaling as he/she came to understand more about what a radiologist really does. Those who speak on these fora with the most authority on this matter seem to have very little, if any, exposure to the field.

This is a common theme though and not unique to radiology.

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

What I am saying is that every field will be replaced by AI and eventually androids.full stop.

The question is only how long it will take particular jobs to be replaced.

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

Do you think otherwise?

Do I disagree that androids will replace us all? Yes.

 

[Sephirakra]

Do I disagree that androids will replace us all? Yes.

So long as we keep John Connor from being killed in the past...

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

interesting. Do you believe we will ever achieve other technological feats in the future, such as interstellar travel?

My point is that technology has advanced dramatically just within the last 20 years. I find it naive to say that within the next two centuries we cannot displace physicians from their jobs.

Oh I’m not saying it won’t be possible to do that at some point in the (far) future. I’m just saying I don’t think we are so stupid as to let AI or robots completely replace us and put us out of work.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Oh I’m not saying it won’t be possible to do that at some point in the (far) future. I’m just saying I don’t think we are so stupid as to let AI or robots completely replace us and put us out of work.

I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.

As long as they’re more like bender and less like the terminator, I’m cool.

 

[Perrotfish]

interesting. Do you believe we will ever achieve other technological feats in the future, such as interstellar travel?

My point is that technology has advanced dramatically just within the last 20 years. I find it naive to say that within the next two centuries we cannot displace physicians from their jobs.

People have a tendency to believe that any current trend in technological advancement will continue forever. Maybe that's true in some cases, but more often engineers start to run into real physical barriers and progress slows or stops. We will, unquestionably, all be displaced by computers if processing power continues to double over and over again, but will it? Moore's law is not an actual law, its a joke that became an industry benchmark.

Read old science fiction from the height of the space race. There was once a time when science fiction writers, even the ones with physics degrees who should have known better, were absolutely sure that in a generation we would be living on at least three worlds, and that computers would always use punch cards. People are not good at predicting the future. Maybe computers will displace our entire profession, or maybe processing power will hit a hard wall and we'll stall, or maybe some other unimaginable advancement will happen and our salaries will triple while a different industry collapses. I don't think we know.

Bringing that back around to this thread, BTW, people are also really bad about predicting the future of physician salaries. Maybe this profession will collapse tomorrow, but everyone thought this profession was on the verge of collapse 10 years ago when I started medical school and real physician salaries had been decreasing for almost a generation. Certainly no one thought that salaries would rise by 10% per year for a decade. If you had told someone 10 years ago that you were hoping to make 250K as a Pediatrician they would have laughed at you, now that's barely above the median full time salary.

 

[TeddyBears]

As long as they’re more like bender and less like the terminator, I’m cool.

Too funny!

 

[nimbus]

People have a tendency to believe that any current trend in technological advancement will continue forever. Maybe that's true in some cases, but more often engineers start to run into real physical barriers and progress slows or stops. We will, unquestionably, all be displaced by computers if processing power continues to double over and over again, but will it? Moore's law is not an actual law, its a joke that became an industry benchmark.

Read old science fiction from the height of the space race. There was once a time when science fiction writers, even the ones with physics degrees who should have known better, were absolutely sure that in a generation we would be living on at least three worlds, and that computers would always use punch cards. People are not good at predicting the future. Maybe computers will displace our entire profession, or maybe processing power will hit a hard wall and we'll stall, or maybe some other unimaginable advancement will happen and our salaries will triple while a different industry collapses. I don't think we know.

Bringing that back around to this thread, BTW, people are also really bad about predicting the future of physician salaries. Maybe this profession will collapse tomorrow, but everyone thought this profession was on the verge of collapse 10 years ago when I started medical school and real physician salaries had been decreasing for almost a generation. Certainly no one thought that salaries would rise by 10% per year for a decade. If you had told someone 10 years ago that you were hoping to make 250K as a Pediatrician they would have laughed at you, now that's barely above the median full time salary.

Yep. Where’s the flying car I’ve was drawing when I was 8?

 

[libertyyne]

Yep. Where’s the flying car I’ve was drawing when I was 8?

 

[ortnakas]

Machines can’t accurately interpret EKGs more than half the time yet, and that’s asking an electrical machine to interpret electricity. I’m not worried about radiologists quite yet.

 

[anbuitachi]

Which physicians have jobs that are easy to do when your 55 and which ones have jobs that are hard to do when your 55?

Jobs that involve mostly desk work or clinic time, with predictable hours, flexibility are the ones that are easy to do when 55. Fields like dermatology, psychiatry, IM, heme onc etc. Other than that, fields like cardiology , GI, can be easy to do as well since they tend to be flexible fields.

Fields that are harder are fields with long unpredictable hours/shift changes and different levels of physical labor. this includes surgical fields, anesthesiology, EM

 

[BorntobeDO?]

If you have no loans (like many of the princes and princesses I know), PC is LEGIT.

Just one example... One buddy of mine works 9-5:00. Weekends are free. Starting salaries around $250-260K in his neck of the woods. He has no loans... so he is playing around with the DPC model and plans on doing that in the next 3-4 years. Lives at home with his parents and stacks his cash up like no tomorrow. He's on track to put down money for 2 retail properties by the end of this year.

His life is pure goals for me.

Wanna bump up your pay? Go see more patients and go in on the weekends or hook up with a hospital to do sone inpatient work.

No matter how many dumb NPs or PAs enter the realm... being a PHYSICIAN still carries weight no matter what.

There is no way I can let that one slip by. 'Lives at home with his parents' followed by 'His life is pure goals for me' Come on queen, your better than this.

 

[QueenJames]

There is no way I can let that one slip by. 'Lives at home with his parents' followed by 'His life is pure goals for me' Come on queen, your better than this.

Dude.

If "living with your parents" is living in a 7,000 square foot paid off home with mommy and daddy who have maids and constant cooking and laundry service with a pool and golf course in the backyard...? YES. THAT IS PURE GOALS lolol You'd be a fool not to take that up.

It's not like he's living in the basement screaming "MA?! WHERES THE MEATLOAF MA?!!!"

I'd do it.

 

[Mr.S]

the future of every specialty is bleek..

 

[nimbus]

the future of every specialty is bleek..

Yes the future of medicine is not what it once was. We are transitioning from local mom and pop stores to Walmart and Amazon.

 

[anbuitachi]

the future of every specialty is bleek..

it's what happens when US is spending far more than it can afford.

 

[SterlingMaloryArcher]

The problem with our field vs others is that ours do not only depend on supply and demand but also hugely on insurance reimbursements. Even if there is a large demand for spine surgeons for example, if insurance cuts the reimbursement by half, your salary is going down. In other fields, if Microsoft is in huge need of engineers, they'll pay them 7 figure salaries.

I'm surprised it's predicting radiology to be hot in the future. Must be because our generation over orders imaging. Cause in the future it's likely that AI will do a lot of the simple imaging reads to speed things up. Kind of like EKG reading

Nah we should be in DC fighting this stuff. We chill too much!



I disagree with this one. Look at what is happening to EKGs. Ive seen many cardiologists just glance at ekg for like 2 seconds and put their name on it. Machine reading has gotten really good for simple stuff.

The same thing can happen for radiology. Put AI in for simple stuff first. I imagine the government will be for it if you tell them it lowers cost since healthcare cost is going nuts.

No, not really. 5-10% of the time the automatic interpretation (on atleast three separate brands of 12-Lead machines I have seen) will erroneously declare an infarct.
Unless by simple stuff you mean Rate
Just because a cardiologist only looks at it for a few seconds doesn't mean he didn't look at it.

 

[lawrencewellsbourne]

it's what happens when US is spending far more than it can afford.

man, where is @BernieSanders when you need him?

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

I am saying that it is almost certain that we will replace doctors *eventually*. That is obvious to me at least.

Well sure, and the sun will blow up *eventually* too...

No flying cars, but we do have self driving ones...

So in other words... we aren't really that close.

THAT IS PURE GOALS lolol You'd be a fool not to take that up

Sorry Queen but no. I will never live in the same house as my parents again. Never. I don't care if it's one of the multi-billion dollar mansions that LBJ lives in, I could never do it.

 

[jw3600]

Dude.

If "living with your parents" is living in a 7,000 square foot paid off home with mommy and daddy who have maids and constant cooking and laundry service with a pool and golf course in the backyard...? YES. THAT IS PURE GOALS lolol You'd be a fool not to take that up.

It's not like he's living in the basement screaming "MA?! WHERES THE MEATLOAF MA?!!!"

I'd do it.

Sounds the the more relevant factor is that he’s rich. And comes from a rich family. Really just boils down to that.

 

[QueenJames]

Well sure, and the sun will blow up *eventually* too...



So in other words... we aren't really that close.



Sorry Queen but no. I will never live in the same house as my parents again. Never. I don't care if it's one of the multi-billion dollar mansions that LBJ lives in, I could never do it.

that's fair.

I have a great relationship with my parents and I know his family really well so it works out for him.

I pray that WHEREVER you live, you find abundant peace, happiness, and success to go along with it my friend.

 

[QueenJames]

Sounds the the more relevant factor is that he’s rich. And comes from a rich family. Really just boils down to that.

AND his parents aren't dicks either.

I know plenty of parents that make dumb money, but their kids end up leaving the house and NEVER come back because of how much their rich parents step on their necks.

This guy has his stuff together and has some financial moves to make... might as well do it with some support from mommy and daddy. No shade at all.

 

[physiciansforpatients]

I'm not going to fault you, but you actually have to read the report before you respond.

It's 56 pages and starting on page 16 they talk about trends and observations.

On page 26, they dive into primary care more.

On page 46, they talk about stagnating salaries for primary salaries. Here is a quote:

" At some point, starting salaries for primary care physicians will plateau. With the exception of pediatrics, this was not observed by the 2018 Review, but Merritt Hawkins projects slower growth in primary care starting salaries over the next several years than has been seen previously.... salaries do not always correspond to increases in demand, at least not initially, as the market needs time to adjust to changing supply and demand dynamic "

If NPs/PAs continue to encroach then this will probably impact us. It will be worse for doctors and patients alike. As someone that’s part of a group that lobbies for patient and physicians, I can tell you first hand how much the AANP is pushing. They have massive lobbying power and if doctors don’t push back the future is going to look very different. This isn’t just a turf war type deal, this is a future of medicine, care and the proper education of folks who deliver it.

 

[DrRiker]

Are NP's really more desirable than PA's? PA's aren't unionized

 

[puahate]

Are NP's really more desirable than PA's? PA's aren't unionized

NPs have more lobbying power and already have indepedent practice rights in some states. PAs not so much but they are trying

 

[DubbiDoctor]

Are NP's really more desirable than PA's? PA's aren't unionized

Yes, their independence practice rights in most States make them easier to employ. One of the physician salary reports released earlier this year said they out-earn PAs and are in greater demand.