The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

mentos

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before the pandemic hit, i posted on this forum that the market has hit its high for the next 10 years.

if you scroll back, i had been warning of a massive tanking of the stock market on this forum starting in Oct 2019, just a few months before Covid reared its ugly head...

after seeing this massive run-up in stocks, i am reiterating my call that stocks have hit their ceiling for the next 10 years. the key is to pay full attention to the DOW index. i don't care that tech has made all-time highs. the DOW holds all the clues. it won't break all-time highs for the next 10 years. what's more, this is all gonna end with a bang 5-10 years from now. DOW 10k here we come!

there is a mathematical secret to this that i have unlocked
So are you doing to short everything now? Sounds like you should be a billionaire by now?
 

WVUPharm2007

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before the pandemic hit, i posted on this forum that the market has hit its high for the next 10 years.

if you scroll back, i had been warning of a massive tanking of the stock market on this forum starting in Oct 2019, just a few months before Covid reared its ugly head...

after seeing this massive run-up in stocks, i am reiterating my call that stocks have hit their ceiling for the next 10 years. the key is to pay full attention to the DOW index. i don't care that tech has made all-time highs. the DOW holds all the clues. it won't break all-time highs for the next 10 years. what's more, this is all gonna end with a bang 5-10 years from now. DOW 10k here we come!

there is a mathematical secret to this that i have unlocked

There you go. Screenshot the buy order for us. If you're right you'll be a legend.
 

wagrxm2000

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Oh no, people invited that guy back?

Put him on ignore a long time ago.
 
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wagrxm2000

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wagrxm2000

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Do you think it will be flat?
My thoughts are the same either flat or we drop back down again to a correct range.

Valuations are just way too high right now.

Revenue growth was -14% last quarter, p/e ratio is 29. It doesn't appear we are getting back to normal any time soon.

If/when a vaccine comes out will it allow everything to go back to normal? If so the market will have to continue to stay at these high valuations to have any return in the next few years.
 

Sine Cura

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There will be no going back to "normal." Enjoy the stagnation/decline. At least those of us who can actually "participate" in the financial markets are better off (perhaps should invest in guns + ammo instead) than the hand-to-mouth crowd
 

msweph

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My thoughts are the same either flat or we drop back down again to a correct range.

Valuations are just way too high right now.

Revenue growth was -14% last quarter, p/e ratio is 29. It doesn't appear we are getting back to normal any time soon.

If/when a vaccine comes out will it allow everything to go back to normal? If so the market will have to continue to stay at these high valuations to have any return in the next few years.
Gotcha. I mean as nice as it was to have my 401k balance go way back up, I was pumped for 6 months or a year of low stock prices. We got like a month. Hardly enough time to build positions slowly in the individual stocks I wanted.

I have a hard time buying anything extra besides my 401k, HSA, etc but I will admit I've been throwing some chips in slowly.
 

wagrxm2000

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Gotcha. I mean as nice as it was to have my 401k balance go way back up, I was pumped for 6 months or a year of low stock prices. We got like a month. Hardly enough time to build positions slowly in the individual stocks I wanted.

I have a hard time buying anything extra besides my 401k, HSA, etc but I will admit I've been throwing some chips in slowly.
I'll never stop autocontributing until I retire.

I just need to see growth to turn back into a bull again.

Could 27 to 33 be the new range? Sure but that's the only way we continue to get returns.

A huge recession though while still having a job is the best for everyone that isn't retiring anytime soon.

I haven't felt this strong against the market since around 2015-2016 when I also was saying we need growth to continue moving up.

Go look at the negative growth during those years and how the market performed.
 
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lane one

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before the pandemic hit, i posted on this forum that the market has hit its high for the next 10 years.

if you scroll back, i had been warning of a massive tanking of the stock market on this forum starting in Oct 2019, just a few months before Covid reared its ugly head...

after seeing this massive run-up in stocks, i am reiterating my call that stocks have hit their ceiling for the next 10 years. the key is to pay full attention to the DOW index. i don't care that tech has made all-time highs. the DOW holds all the clues. it won't break all-time highs for the next 10 years. what's more, this is all gonna end with a bang 5-10 years from now. DOW 10k here we come!

there is a mathematical secret to this that i have unlocked
Is that when the satan worshiping, sex trafficking pedo politician ring will finally collapse!?!?
 
Jan 22, 2019
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Real estate > stocks. Discuss.

I am just hoping the Houston real estate market does not go crazy in the next 2 yrs...
 

wagrxm2000

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People need to stop looking at all the areas in the country that have had housing prices sore and realize that a vast majority of housing has barely cracked previous highs after including inflation.

Also, I find it very odd to post an article from a guy who prefers real estate crowdfunding over owning.
 
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mentos

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Real estate > stocks. Discuss.

Depends on location and when you bought.
 

wagrxm2000

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I also think telling anyone in the pharmacy profession they should have even more debt outside their loans and mortgage is absolutely a horrible idea
 
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wagrxm2000

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There is a difference between good and bad debt.

Taking debt to buy a good rental property especially at low interest rate is a good thing. Taking on debt to buy a new car is not.

The point is real estate offers superior return. You just have to put in the work.
Telling a person who may not have a job in 10 years to go farther into debt is ridiculous.

How is this person suppose to pay for everything when they are out of a job and the housing market crashes with their tenants not able to pay rent and getting evicted?

It doesn’t matter if it has not reached its previous high. If it goes up just 3%/year and you had put down 25% on a rental, you made 12% return assuming it cash flow.

So far this year, it has gone up 4.8%....4 x 4.8% is 19.2% while the stock market is flat.
Tell that to the people who bought at the top and still haven't made anything.

They will wish they had invested it instead.
 
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wagrxm2000

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There are many people who live off their rental properties.

Extra monthly rent money = income and you don’t need to pay tax if you take depreciation

Appreciation = cash out refinance and you don’t have to pay tax on it

Every investment has some kind of risk but people have been investing in real estate for thousands of years. It is not new. It is not scary. If anything, it is safer than the stock market. You would rather bet against a super computer than compete with first time home buyers?

You can also minimize your risk by identifying and buying positive cash flow properties. You should also have 6 months of expenses on hand. Hire a property management team to run the properties.

You have a doctorate degree and you can’t beat the average home buyer? Seriously...it is not rocket science. I can teach anyone how to pay a good rental properties in a few hours, just as long as they have the capital.
Key words have the capital.

Good luck to anyone with a million in debt, no job, and your tenant can't pay rent
 

wagrxm2000

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Of course I wouldn’t tell someone to buy rental properties when they don’t have the money like I wouldn’t tell someone to start a business if they don’t have the capital.

I don’t know why you always paint the worse case scenario for rental properties. The stock market can crash tomorrow, is that going to stop you from buying stocks? Of course not.
You have to pay for said house, my stocks have no debt.

Single pharmacist is paying $2k on this mortgage, gets laid off and his tenant says he's moving out. It takes him time to find a new person and now he's paying $4k that month.

No new pharmacist should take this risk with pay constantly being lowered and getting let go every year

Oh and a tenant leaving is not an extreme case. I'm pretty sure most people will tell you expect rent 11 out of 12 months a year
 
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wagrxm2000

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That is why you need to put away some of your rent money for unexpected repairs and vacancy. It should be part of your business model.
If you told me the person had minimum loans, job security and a reasonable mortgage on their personal house I'd agree more but these new grads have no clue what they've gotten themselves into.

So no I don't recommend pharmacists getting into the rental game
 

Momus

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Real estate > stocks. Discuss.

Stocks > RE anyday. Don't need to discuss.
 

Sine Cura

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It takes a lot of discipline and sacrifice to save $300,000 for a down payment on a median priced home in New York City. Therefore, most people don’t and get pissed at those who do or have the means.

The human condition assigns luck to the achievements of others and skill to our own.
No it takes being a trust fund baby
 
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Even if you can get 2-3x the return of stocks with rental properties?

View attachment 316110

Yeah rentals require more work than stocks but it is certainly not a second job. I spent some weekends looking at properties and I would outsource the rest to a property management company. Not totally passive but close.
Agree. It's pretty passive after you acquire the property and fix it. I literally got between 6-10 calls/year from my property management company. You just have to be willing to pay that 8-10% of the rental $$$ per month.

Between 2009 to 2013, investing in real estate was great because properties were selling at 50%+ 'discount'. But I think it's better to invest in index fund than real estate right now except for some selective places.
 

MatCauthon

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Been focusing on coronavirus stocks since March. also, played a few high movers that my investment group picked out. This had been a truly exceptional year. Some of the biotech names I am still watching include capr, bcrx and SRNE. Also like to play runups into FDA approval/pdufa and adcoms, and phase 2/3 studies.

Also have a few picks I'm holding from my investment group: clsk (microgrids), Tesla. grwg (gardening company with ex ceo of home depot), gold etf. that said we are all looking to trim profits and possibly even have some short exposure soon. all my money in retirement is in ETFs not mutual funds so I can easily get out of it rather tha. wait for 3 days settlement.
 
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MatCauthon

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@MatCauthon

If you got CLSK right after the pandemic, you are sitting extremely well right now.
started buying clsk in the low 2s. I added on twice so my basis is 4.19 now (always happy to pm snapshots so people don't think I'm bsing) my group thinks that this could still double or triple from here. However, the market could also tank any minute so I'm keeping a realistic perspective.
 
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msweph

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Been focusing on coronavirus stocks since March. also, played a few high movers that my investment group picked out. This had been a truly exceptional year. Some of the biotech names I am still watching include capr, bcrx and SRNE. Also like to play runups into FDA approval/pdufa and adcoms, and phase 2/3 studies.

Also have a few picks I'm holding from my investment group: clsk (microgrids), Tesla. grwg (gardening company with ex ceo of home depot), gold etf. that said we are all looking to trim profits and possibly even have some short exposure soon. all my money in retirement is in ETFs not mutual funds so I can easily get out of it rather tha. wait for 3 days settlement.
What's your investment group?
 

WVUPharm2007

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wagrxm2000

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What's better, GLD or an S&P?
Low dollar is very bullish for S&P500. Exports will be more competitive for foreign countries.

If this was happening in a normal environment, I'd be all over the market.
 
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wagrxm2000

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Gotta love when all the talking heads start saying go value and the NASDAQ takes over again

Why, because no one knows exactly what will happen
 

mentos

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Alright so I think I have FOMO now for TSLA. I've never owned any shares before and it just keeps going above and beyond the moon. I think I'll finally buy 1 or 2 shares tomorrow, would that be a wise move?

I've been indexing for the past couple years until last week when I bought a little bit of NIO and GLD.
 

redfish955

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I'm buying globo coin. There are half as many as bit coin and it's controlled by the Chinese national bank of Zimbobway.
 

wagrxm2000

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I don't buy individuals much anymore but I'm sticking to my precious metals trade and bought some silver on this dip. Wouldn't mind if it fell more so I could strengthen my position.

30 is the goal.
 

mentos

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I think if you are going to buy > 10 individual stocks, then might as well buy the index.

I like to bet big on 2 or 3 individual stocks. It is my gambling money, not my rent money.
What else do you have besides NIO? BABA?
 

wagrxm2000

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I think if you are going to buy > 10 individual stocks, then might as well buy the index.

I like to bet big on 2 or 3 individual stocks. It is my gambling money, not my rent money.

Depends on what you're doing. I have been long FAAMNGT for awhile now.

I also wouldn't mind if people bought specific sectors they think would outperform over the entire index.

I'm very disappointed in not getting into silver earlier thinking there's no way it could continue going higher. We finally had that retreat so after the dip today it was time to create another position in precious metals
 

mentos

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Depends on what you're doing. I have been long FAAMNGT for awhile now.

I also wouldn't mind if people bought specific sectors they think would outperform over the entire index.

I'm very disappointed in not getting into silver earlier thinking there's no way it could continue going higher. We finally had that retreat so after the dip today it was time to create another position in precious metals
Which silver ETF?
 

wagrxm2000

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Which silver ETF?
Slv

I literally got it at 25.37 almost at the peak decline.

Silver itself is currently at 27.96 and I think it's inevitable it will hit 30 so I'm looking for a quick 10% gain. I would actually prefer it to drop though.
 

redfish955

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There is like a 12 month wait period for bicycles and bicyle stocks are soaring. Fox factory, shimano, etc.
 

mentos

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I asked my mortgage loan officer what their rates were. They're currently above 3 but last month they had 2.625% 30 year fixed no points. If it falls that low again I will refinance for the second time this year.
 

Chrish

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VTI reaches new all time high.. Market going up or case of hyperinflation?
 

msweph

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Alright so I think I have FOMO now for TSLA. I've never owned any shares before and it just keeps going above and beyond the moon. I think I'll finally buy 1 or 2 shares tomorrow, would that be a wise move?

I've been indexing for the past couple years until last week when I bought a little bit of NIO and GLD.
Only buy if u plan to hold for 10 years. Otherwise I'd buy something else
 

wagrxm2000

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I really can't imagine Tesla going up much more over the next year or so. They will have very little growth this year.

They have gigafactory 4 in Germany that will start production in the summer of 2021 and giga 5 by the end of 2022.

If all four car production gigafactories produce 250k a year that's only double production of this year's 500k goal
 
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