The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

[aqb]

Rate my monthly budget?

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[LFA20]

Another discount day at the stock market. Merry Xmas!

 

[owlegrad]

Rate my monthly budget?

Nothing in the budget for transportation, rent, or vacations?

 

[gwarm01]

Nothing in the budget for transportation, rent, or vacations?

They must live in a fully paid off RV

 

[aqb]

Nothing in the budget for transportation, rent, or vacations?

Ah. Tiny adjustments then.

Vacation is still only 2 weeks out of the year, so if anything would use no more than $500 from debt budget. And that's assuming we go somewhere.

Fortunately wife is taking care of rent right now with her fam discount. We've been sitting on a down payment for a house over the last year but no good inventory. So it's just been collecting that sweet, sweet 0.3% interest...

Transportation, my commute is 20min away so maybe $60 every 2 weeks.

They must live in a fully paid off RV

RV market is crazy hot right now too.

 

[mentos]

Rate my monthly budget?

Why so much school debt? What's the interest? I personally wouldn't invest so much in crypto unless I maxed out retirement accounts first and had no school debt. It feels like a falling knife now.

 

[Prepharm1214]

Also seconding too much crypto for me but that's a personal decision

 

[mentos]

Are you investing in a taxable account? IMO, replace crypto with VTI. With that much student loan debt, your crypto budget is gambling at this point.

Crypto looks bearish. Even the CEO of Kraken thinks crypto winter is coming:

Kraken CEO reverses $100K BTC 2021 forecast: Crypto winter now possible

Kraken CEO Jesse Powell now says that a potential crypto winter is “possible” pointing to historical cycles.

cointelegraph.com

If you've already bought a house and settled in, have no major repairs, paid off your student loans and DCA index funds in a taxable account then sure throw anything extra into crypto. But in your situation it makes no sense.

 

[aqb]

Why so much school debt? What's the interest? I personally wouldn't invest so much in crypto unless I maxed out retirement accounts first and had no school debt. It feels like a falling knife now.

I know right?

Want to get rid of the debt asap, not sure how much longer I can tolerate retail. That weight off my shoulders will give me more flexibility with career and hours worked. Interest on average is probably around 6.4%.

Decision on crypto was more recent, and the reason why I've been holding off so long was because of your exact concerns. But ultimately I've been following it since 2016 and have had friends do it that made serious bank (6-7 figs). A bit of FOMO and regret. Been doing research, I think there's potentially more upside, but also more risk which I'm okay with. The swings don't bother me. These are >5 year holds.

Crypto winter is coming. Time to load >1k capital?

401k, Roth IRA, HSA are maxed. I don't have a taxable account yet and it's something I've considered. Not sure what the best play is. How much would you put in taxable?

No house yet, got 20% down ready to jump on one if anything we like pops up.

 

[mentos]

I know right?

Want to get rid of the debt asap, not sure how much longer I can tolerate retail. That weight off my shoulders will give me more flexibility with career and hours worked. Interest on average is probably around 6.4%.

Decision on crypto was more recent, and the reason why I've been holding off so long was because of your exact concerns. But ultimately I've been following it since 2016 and have had friends do it that made serious bank (6-7 figs). A bit of FOMO and regret. Been doing research, I think there's potentially more upside, but also more risk which I'm okay with. The swings don't bother me. These are >5 year holds.

Crypto winter is coming. Time to load >1k capital?

401k, Roth IRA, HSA are maxed. I don't have a taxable account yet and it's something I've considered. Not sure what the best play is. How much would you put in taxable?

No house yet, got 20% down ready to jump on one if anything we like pops up.

If you're paying down your loans that aggressively then you should look into refinancing. 6.4% is high. I refinanced around 3% after school, might be even lower now.

I've been putting whatever I can into taxable VTI each paycheck.

 

[aqb]

If you're paying down your loans that aggressively then you should look into refinancing. 6.4% is high. I refinanced around 3% after school, might be even lower now.

I've been putting whatever I can into taxable VTI each paycheck.

Yea, now that 0% is stopping in February I might just do that.

 

[LFA20]

I hope y'all bought the dip on TSLA this past few days(I bought some). The rally is about to start.

Elon done selling. Giga factories opening...

 

[PharmDminus]

Yea, now that 0% is stopping in February I might just do that.

it was extended until May

 

[LFA20]

Another record delivery for TESLA this quarter (Q4). Wall street estimate's was 206k. They delivered 308k.

FY2021 total delivery : 936,172
For your reference FY2020 total delivery was around 500k

At this rate they will deliver over 1.5M in 2022.

🚀🚀🚀🚀

 

[Vaxonvaxoff]

There is no competition. Next Tesla is Tesla

 

[mentos]

Another record delivery for TESLA this quarter (Q4). Wall street estimate's was 206k. They delivered 308k.

FY2021 total delivery : 936,172
For your reference FY2020 total delivery was around 500k

At this rate they will deliver over 1.5M in 2022.

🚀🚀🚀🚀

That's it? Toyota sold 10mil cars in 2020.

TM market cap 256bil
TSLA market cap 1.06tril

I really don't get it.

 

[owlegrad]

That's it? Toyota sold 10mil cars in 2020.

TM market cap 256bil
TSLA market cap 1.06tril

I really don't get it.

Bro common on its Tesla, Tesla is the future, EV, Elon Musk was man of the year, etc etc

 

[LFA20]

That's it? Toyota sold 10mil cars in 2020.

TM market cap 256bil
TSLA market cap 1.06tril

I really don't get it.

Bro.. stop living in the past

We all know EV is the future and Tesla is leading

Valuation matters but potential growth is much more important.

 

[mentos]

Bro.. stop living in the past

We all know EV is the future and Tesla is leading

Valuation matters but potential growth is much more important.

So what happens when Toyota matches Tesla's EV sales? Will it be a trillion dollar company too? Or when Tesla matches Toyota's sales, will it be 10 trillion?

 

[LFA20]

So what happens when Toyota matches Tesla's EV sales? Will it be a trillion dollar company too? Or when Tesla matches Toyota's sales, will it be 10 trillion?

Buy some Tesla puts then. I dare you.

 

[mentos]

Buy some Tesla puts then. I dare you.

That's always the default answer. I mean I wouldn't buy GME or AMC puts either.

 

[StockPharmD2020]

So what happens when Toyota matches Tesla's EV sales? Will it be a trillion dollar company too? Or when Tesla matches Toyota's sales, will it be 10 trillion?

They won't.

 

[Splenda88]

Who is joining me in going all in on AAPL?

30 shares now and plan to have 150-170 by year end.

 

[JustFillIt]

Buy some Tesla puts then. I dare you.

Honestly - im starting to get to that point with Tesla. If I did not promise myself and my wife that I would never buy an option again, I would buy some puts right now.

If you could point me to a platform where I could short for the next 6 months I would do it.

If the child tax credit dies, and the fed starts it’s interest rate hikes. It’s game over in my opinion for the near future

 

[mentos]

Honestly - im starting to get to that point with Tesla. If I did not promise myself and my wife that I would never buy an option again, I would buy some outs right now.

If you could point me to a platform where I could short for the next 6 months I would do it.

If the child tax credit dies, and the fed starts it’s interest rate hikes. It’s game over in my opinion for the near future

I'm sure it will go up and down just like last year. Opportunities to make or lose money both ways. If it hits 1500 soon I might get a put.

 

[mentos]

Who is joining me in going all in on AAPL?

30 shares now and plan to have 150-170 by year end.

I have 69 in my Roth. Not sure if I want to add more yet.

 

[owlegrad]

Buy some Tesla puts then. I dare you.

Options make no sense to me at all. You have to be correct about both direction and timing. What a crazy bet to make imo. No thanks.

 

[mentos]

Options make no sense to me at all. You have to be correct about both direction and timing. What a crazy bet to make imo. No thanks.

I find this funny cause I lost money on Tesla calls last year. If I buy a call, it tanks. If I buy a put, it rips LoL.

 

[mentos]

Bernstein:

"While we acknowledge Tesla's success and see continued near-term stock appreciation as likely, we continue to struggle to justify the company's valuation. TSLA's valuation is higher than all other major auto makers combined, and appears to imply huge volume AND industry leading profitability going forward, which is historically unprecedented. Looked at another way, TSLA trades at >$1M per car delivered, ~90x the traditional auto OEM peer average."

I guess the bulls will be saying the same thing when its valuation is $2M per car delivered. "You're investing in growth", "it's Elon", "short it I dare you". 🤷

 

[mentos]

Today is Ford's turn. Read this comment on Yahoo finance:

"The news is that Ford will double production of the Electric F-150, from 75k per year to 150k per year. Now let's assume they make 4k on each vehicle (10%), which is quite generous. That's another 250M in Net Income. What happens to the stock? Market Cap jumps 10B+. Welcome to the age of insanity... lol"

People have too much money to throw around.

 

[JustFillIt]

Fed just announced First round of interest rate hikes - BBB agenda is not going well.

I dunno about you guys but I’m all out including my quick money swing trades. My understanding is that this is just round one of interest rate hikes. There is still money to be made and there will likely be green upswings in response to the large dips - but, I’m predicting a macro downtrend for the next 6-8 months.

I’m sitting out for a while. People are out of money and foresee a very financially difficult year. The grocery store is sapping everyone of money unless you are on govt assistance

Also - professional salaries have not increased in response to inflation. The floor for minimum wage/entry level has increased significantly. Those of us making a professional wage are making about 10% less than we were a year ago today. Don’t forget that professionals hold the majority of shares in the stock market, outside of institutions of course.

The bulls are becoming exhausted and can’t hold the floor unless the powers that be infuse the economy with trillions once again

 

[mentos]

Fed just announced First round of interest rate hikes - BBB agenda is not going well.

I dunno about you guys but I’m all out including my quick money swing trades. My understanding is that this is just round one of interest rate hikes. There is still money to be made and there will likely be green upswings in response to the large dips - but, I’m predicting a macro downtrend for the next 6-8 months.

I’m sitting out for a while. People are out of money and foresee a very financially difficult year. The grocery store is sapping everyone of money unless you are on govt assistance

Also - professional salaries have not increased in response to inflation. The floor for minimum wage/entry level has increased significantly. Those of us making a professional wage are making about 10% less than we were a year ago today. Don’t forget that professionals hold the majority of shares in the stock market, outside of institutions of course.

The bulls are becoming exhausted and can’t hold the floor unless the powers that be infuse the economy with trillions once again

You cashed out? Even in your retirement accounts?

I'm glad I got SARK but regret not buying more. I can see ARKK falling to 70s or lower.

 

[mentos]

Buy some Tesla puts then. I dare you.

Monday would have been the perfect day to buy.

 

[JustFillIt]

You cashed out? Even in your retirement accounts?

I'm glad I got SARK but regret not buying more. I can see ARKK falling to 70s or lower.

Oh - not my 401. Just my personal savings

 

[mentos]

Oh - not my 401. Just my personal savings

Value stocks are still green. The boring ones that no one talks about.

 

[mentos]

Up 25.17% on SARK now. Thinking I should take profits soon. But I still think ARKK falls to 60 or lower.

 

[Splenda88]

The market is scary right now, but I will keep buying AAPL. 33 shares right now with plan to finish the year with 175-200.

 

[mentos]

The market is scary right now, but I will keep buying AAPL. 33 shares right now with plan to finish the year with 175-200.

AAPL 147 and MSFT 281 are good support levels. If they fall that low, I may go all in both for 50/50 portfolio in my Roth.

 

[Splenda88]

What do you guys/gals think of palantir?

Will it get below $7? I might throw 2k at it if it gets that low.

 

[Splenda88]

AAPL 147 and MSFT 281 are good support levels. If they fall that low, I may go all in both for 50/50 portfolio in my Roth.

I will keep buying AAPL no matter what...

 

[mentos]

SARK is ETF of the year.

Year to Date

SARK +29
VXX +25
Energy +13
Hussman +9
Gold 0
EM ex China 0
Emerging 0
ST TIPS -1
Treas -1
Staples sector -1
TIPS -2
China -2
Value -2
Junk -2
High Qual Corps -3
Financials -3
Developed ex-USA -3
60/40 -4
Schwab Dividend -4
Utils -4
Industrials -4
Comms sector -7
Materials -7
healthcare -8
SP500 -8
REITs -9
USA -9
Small Caps -10
TSLA -11
Vanguard Momo -12
Weed -12
Tech -12
Cons Discr -12
Retail -14
Clean Energy -17
BTC -23
ARKK -24
PTON -24
GME -28

 

[Rockinacoustic]

Been awfully quiet 'round these parts lately

 

[owlegrad]

Been awfully quiet 'round these parts lately

I’m buying and loving it. I wish I had more on the sidelines but I don’t believe in trying to time the market by staying out of it.

I am considering changing my allocation to less bonds and more stocks though. Maybe that’s a form of market timing but it just makes sense to me to buy stocks while they’re cheap.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Been awfully quiet 'round these parts lately

I'm buying!

 

[gwarm01]

Wish I could do my company stock purchase now instead of in the summer.

 

[mentos]

Sold 100 SARK at 50.00 for 32.1% gains. Have 200 shares left. Put in another limit sell order for 55.00.

Will put the money in VTI.

 

[Rockinacoustic]

Good week to max out your Roth contributions

 

[LFA20]

Been buying Tesla for the past month(30 shares ;13 on margin) at average price of $999.99 🙂.

Margin makes up about 7% of my total portfolio

Been slowly dollar cost averaging. My average price went up about $35 since I posted in December.

I’m stationed overseas since the one day ahead date.

Good earnings report but I wish Elon was not at the earnings call. Portfolio managers were asking about core business and he started rambling about robots 🤦🏻

 

[mentos]

Been buying Tesla for the past month(30 shares ;13 on margin) at average price of $999.99 🙂.

Margin makes up about 7% of my total portfolio

Been slowly dollar cost averaging. My average price went up about $35 since I posted in December.

I’m stationed overseas since the one day ahead date.

Good earnings report but I wish Elon was not at the earnings call. Portfolio managers were asking about core business and he started rambling about robots 🤦🏻

Ouch you're down 20% of 30k 😫I think Tesla falls back under 600 this year.

 

[mentos]

I will keep buying AAPL no matter what...

Nice earnings report today. Can always count on AAPL.