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[LetItSnow]

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***lynch dwin**** ... Slight suspicion.

 

[devyn]

Official Lynch Tally

3D3C - 3 (dwin, TV, KB)
TV - 1 (SOV)
alors - 1 (TRH)
dwin - 1 (LIS)

6/14 votes cast

Lynch Deadline 7 PM EST (12 AM IT)


MOAR LYNCHING!!!!! 😡😡😡

 

[Dwindlin]

***lynch dwin**** ... Slight suspicion.

As I told DVM, no wolves here old man (I may have left out the old man bit though).

 

[shortnsweet]

I'm gonna go with lynch Tucker

Something about her and TRH's convo about swings and low numbers of posting seemed off to me.

 

[that redhead]

I was hoping someone would have come forward about 3d3c by now.

Unlynch alors
Lynch 3d3c

 

[Flim Flam Man]

I guess I am missing why everyone is lynching 3d3c...

Is it the high likelihood of being converted? Seems kind of asinine to throw out a lynch vote for a villager with a role ability without a little more discussion.

 

[abbercadaver]

Brain is frazzled from all this.

Mreh. Lynch nstarz

Suspecting SOV would have been a good conversion target, so not sure about his quick vote tossed out there on Tucker.

On that note, here are my present thoughts:

FS voted for swings, then nstarz after swings asked why....so I doubt FS is a wolf. (unless it's a sneaky wolf move)
Swings voted for SOV and TRH...doubting they were wolves at that time. (unless it's a sneaky wolf move)
KB voted early on the swings vote--2nd person--that would be crazy to vote for your own wolfmates that early in a lynch, I'd think.


Hypothesizing a conversion...and SOV and/or 3d3c are the only ones who (those of us who are not seer) think are possibly cleared, so thinking they'd be a good conversion, unless wolves seered and found a good role to utilize.

What are y'all's thoughts on all that?

 

[shortnsweet]

Swings voted for SOV and TRH...doubting they were wolves at that time. (unless it's a sneaky wolf move)
KB voted early on the swings vote--2nd person--that would be crazy to vote for your own wolfmates that early in a lynch, I'd think.



What are y'all's thoughts on all that?

Throwing a vote out for a fellow wolf when you doubt there will be a bandwagon is a classic wolf move. And if that wolf ends up getting lynched...well then you can always be like "but I voted for them!"

Swings changed to TRH pretty close to the deadline...

 

[that redhead]

I guess I am missing why everyone is lynching 3d3c...

Is it the high likelihood of being converted? Seems kind of asinine to throw out a lynch vote for a villager with a role ability without a little more discussion.

She mentioned she had received a PM the night that everything switched up. Those of us who remained vanilla villagers did not receive a PM at all, so either she became a wolf or a villager with a role.

One would think that if she were a villager with a role, the wolves would have probably moved to off her relatively quickly - not necessarily, for the reasons SOV pointed out but the fact that she's still alive AND hasn't been investigated (or no one has shared results) by the presumable villager seer is a bit fishy.

 

[that redhead]

Throwing a vote out for a fellow wolf when you doubt there will be a bandwagon is a classic wolf move. And if that wolf ends up getting lynched...well then you can always be like "but I voted for them!"

Swings changed to TRH pretty close to the deadline...

Still a vanilla villager. Keep fishin'.

 

[abbercadaver]

Thanks. Has anyone been a lynch avoider as a villager this game? I know someone with this role, and I also know they cannot use it this cycle.

Throwing a vote out for a fellow wolf when you doubt there will be a bandwagon is a classic wolf move. And if that wolf ends up getting lynched...well then you can always be like "but I voted for them!"

Swings changed to TRH pretty close to the deadline...

See this is why I suck at theorizing.

 

[abbercadaver]

***whoops.

Forgot I'd quoted 3d3c.

Who was it that couldn't use the lynch avoider last cycle? Obviously Swings used it when we lynched her.

 

[shortnsweet]

Still a vanilla villager. Keep fishin'.

Defensive much?


I was merely pointing out she switched to you close to the deadline when it was pretty clear she was the one going down...but whatever.

 

[shortnsweet]

***whoops.

Forgot I'd quoted 3d3c.

Who was it that couldn't use the lynch avoider last cycle? Obviously Swings used it when we lynched her.

I would guess it's catdog if shes a villager with a role and knew this about swings...role stealer perhaps?

 

[Dwindlin]

Thanks. Has anyone been a lynch avoider as a villager this game? I know someone with this role, and I also know they cannot use it this cycle.

Missed this earlier. Suppose it gives some credence to 3D3C being a roled villager. Though doesn't rule out conversion.

Unlynch 3D3C for the time being.

Lynch tucker, no reason other than bandwagoning...

 

[LetItSnow]

old man

Hmm.....

 

[NStarz]

lynch tucker

I'm assuming someone investigated 3d3c last night, so I'll be willing to switch my vote if more info comes to light...

 

[Flim Flam Man]

She mentioned she had received a PM the night that everything switched up. Those of us who remained vanilla villagers did not receive a PM at all, so either she became a wolf or a villager with a role.

One would think that if she were a villager with a role, the wolves would have probably moved to off her relatively quickly - not necessarily, for the reasons SOV pointed out but the fact that she's still alive AND hasn't been investigated (or no one has shared results) by the presumable villager seer is a bit fishy.

Yeah, but the protector is presumably in the same boat as everyone else, and would be most likely to protect 3d3c. Wolves would know that and could opt to go for a sure death rather than risk a block.

The numbers are rapidly turning in the wolves favor. Lynching a villager helps them immensely.

 

[kbrow47]

Does anyone think the group shuffling has any clues to it? Now I could believe there is one wolf in each remaining group.

I am going to unlynch 3d3c and lynch tucker though I had suspected him before the roles changed initially.

 

[DVMDream]

Lynch Dwin Suspicious.


Also, why the heck is everyone (ok not everyone, but quite a few people) asking why people are not coming forward with investigation results? Seriously. Unless there is a wolf, or a villager that has been cleared recently is about to be lynched that should be kept as quiet as possible. The only thing that coming out and saying who has been cleared will do is direct the wolves towards which group the seer is, which is not good.

 

[LetItSnow]

Lynch Dwin Suspicious.


Also, why the heck is everyone (ok not everyone, but quite a few people) asking why people are not coming forward with investigation results? Seriously. Unless there is a wolf, or a villager that has been cleared recently is about to be lynched that should be kept as quiet as possible. The only thing that coming out and saying who has been cleared will do is direct the wolves towards which group the seer is, which is not good.

Yeah, I've been a little puzzled by that. I'm operating under the assumption that whoever the villager seer is, they are playing reasonably intelligently and investigated SOV first night post-Event, and then either a co-group member second night or 3D3C second night (reversing those for the third night), and then will be sharing their investigation results with the cleared group member. Bonus points if it's someone IN SOV or 3D3C's group so they can conserve by clearing one of them and sharing with the same one. That's just straightforward seer strategy.

Beyond that, there's no reason to say anything in thread if SOV and 3D3C are villagers.

If our villager seer is out there doing random investigations as well as not sharing the results with someone ... then all I can do is facepalm.

And if we don't actually HAVE a villager seer ... then I'll just keep voting based on suspicion and guesswork. *shrug*

 

[tuckervet]

I'm gonna go with lynch Tucker

Something about her and TRH's convo about swings and low numbers of posting seemed off to me.

Do you mean my convo with alors? I think that is only person that I responded to about voting for swings based on lack of posting. I think TRH commented on it, but there really was no convo between me and TRH. Not that it makes any significant difference, just trying to understand the logic.

I haven't been PMing with anyone in my group, so I have no one to vouch for me.

For now, unlynch 3D3C, I am waffling between three others for a lynch vote, so I'll keep the waffles for myself for now, and I'll be back soon with my new vote

For those that believe the one wolf per group theory, are you thinking my group now has two since we were combined with others?

 

[abbercadaver]

so I'll keep the waffles for myself for now.

Stingy!

 

[DVMDream]

Went back through the thread to see who all claimed that they were vanilla villager before and then still remained vanilla villager after and thus not receiving any PM...

-wildcat mentioned it first but did not specify on thread that she didn't receive a PM just that she was a villager

-TRH was the first to mention the no PMs received

-swings and NStarz also claimed the same, but not until later.

-wildcat verified that she also did not receive a PM either after the role change up. Wildcat is a verified villager.

This does not clear anyone of course, but at least makes me trust TRH a little bit more.

 

[devyn]

Official Lynch Tally

TV - 5 (SOV, SnS, dwin, nstarz, KB)
dwin - 2 (LIS, DVM)
NStarz - 1 (abber)
3D3C - 1 (TRH)

9/14 votes cast

Lynch Deadline 7 PM EST (12 AM IT)


I am going out in a little while with a friend for some drinks... so I will keep checking back in for the votes, but dyachei (you might need to close this out later 😉 )

 

[StartingoverVet]

Yeah, I've been a little puzzled by that. I'm operating under the assumption that whoever the villager seer is, they are playing reasonably intelligently and investigated SOV first night post-Event, and then either a co-group member second night or 3D3C second night (reversing those for the third night), and then will be sharing their investigation results with the cleared group member. Bonus points if it's someone IN SOV or 3D3C's group so they can conserve by clearing one of them and sharing with the same one. That's just straightforward seer strategy.

Beyond that, there's no reason to say anything in thread if SOV and 3D3C are villagers.

If our villager seer is out there doing random investigations as well as not sharing the results with someone ... then all I can do is facepalm.

And if we don't actually HAVE a villager seer ... then I'll just keep voting based on suspicion and guesswork. *shrug*

This is pretty much my thinking as well.

Have to assume people are acting logically, otherwise we are screwed anyway.

I'm not expecting any postings unless someone finds a wolf, or someone with a role is in imminent danger of being lynched...

 

[tuckervet]

lynch dwin based on a gut feeling (although that really only helped rojo and BB in my last game) and because voting for someone with no votes is not going to help me get off the chopping block

 

[Frozenshades]

Just making my best guess...****lynch tuckervet*****


Doubt any waffles will be had, don't think I'll be able to check again until past deadline

 

[AlorsOnDanse]

I wish we weren't stabbing in the dark hopping to find a wolf. The lack of information is quite annoying. I hate throwing a vote out there with no basis or jumping on a bandwagon. But with that said ***lynch tuckervet***. Hopefully we will get some much needed information very soon.

 

[that redhead]

Defensive much?


I was merely pointing out she switched to you close to the deadline when it was pretty clear she was the one going down...but whatever.

Internet is poor for conveying tone - wasn't trying to be abrasively defensive, just to reiterate that I remain a vanilla villager 👍

Honestly, I'm not sure what to think of the 3d3c situation. If she's been investigated, she must have come back clear or else someone would have said something. I can only hope she has been investigated.

So unlynch 3d3c
lynch dwin.

I don't even know right now.

 

[DVMDream]

TRH, I just have one question... you lynched alors to start off (I know you have unlynched her since) with saying that you are "just doing the same thing you have been." Which to me means, the 1 wolf/group theory again, but swings was the wolf in that group if you go with your theory... so why lynch anyone in that group then?

It just struck me as odd...

 

[AlorsOnDanse]

TRH, I just have one question... you lynched alors to start off (I know you have unlynched her since) with saying that you are "just doing the same thing you have been." Which to me means, the 1 wolf/group theory again, but swings was the wolf in that group if you go with your theory... so why lynch anyone in that group then?

It just struck me as odd...

Was wondering the same thing.

 

[that redhead]

TRH, I just have one question... you lynched alors to start off (I know you have unlynched her since) with saying that you are "just doing the same thing you have been." Which to me means, the 1 wolf/group theory again, but swings was the wolf in that group if you go with your theory... so why lynch anyone in that group then?

It just struck me as odd...

The wolves gained a convert last night, meaning that there should still be four wolves in the game, and four groups. So in my group, I know that I'm a villager, leaving me with dwin and alors. I had chosen alors, but as others are now choosing dwin, I switched over to him.

 

[DVMDream]

The wolves gained a convert last night, meaning that there should still be four wolves in the game, and four groups. So in my group, I know that I'm a villager, leaving me with dwin and alors. I had chosen alors, but as others are now choosing dwin, I switched over to him.

So you are guessing that the wolves converted someone in that group last night?

 

[that redhead]

So you are guessing that the wolves converted someone in that group last night?

If I go off of the one wolf per group theory, yes. But as you have pointed out, there may have been more than one wolf in the group to start with, so dwin or alors could have been original wolves2 or converted last night.

 

[that redhead]

Plus the wolves may want to keep a wolf in each group for the chance to keep tabs on what's going on. I know dwin PMed the group before the first event to ask us our thoughts on SOV. I haven't heard from him again (dunno about alors), though, so who knows.

 

[tuckervet]

Not waffling again (yet) but I am curious as to why 3D3C hasn't posted at all today, even after knowing we would be wondering if he/she was converted last night.

Looks like I might have a second helping of waffles before the lynch mob comes for me...

 

[DVMDream]

If I go off of the one wolf per group theory, yes. But as you have pointed out, there may have been more than one wolf in the group to start with, so dwin or alors could have been original wolves2 or converted last night.

Ok, but the original post you made was "just doing what I have been doing since the start of the game", and then you lynched alors, which if you are doing what you had been since start of game you would be assuming she has been converted. That is what is odd to me. Especially now with you stating that there could be more than 1 wolf/group after you had said you were using the 1 wolf/group theory still earlier on. I guess I am just trying to understand your thought process, because it isn't making sense to me.

 

[Flim Flam Man]

lynch tuckervet I guess...

 

[Dwindlin]

Not much I can say. I'm not a wolf. As I said to DVM earlier I don't think losing me means much other than numbers.

 

[that redhead]

Ok, but the original post you made was "just doing what I have been doing since the start of the game", and then you lynched alors, which if you are doing what you had been since start of game you would be assuming she has been converted. That is what is odd to me. Especially now with you stating that there could be more than 1 wolf/group after you had said you were using the 1 wolf/group theory still earlier on. I guess I am just trying to understand your thought process, because it isn't making sense to me.

I'm not really sure what's so hard to understand.

My thought process:
One wolf per group (not necessarily 100% true at all times, but a theory to work with)

Swings (wolf) killed, conversion in same night = still 4 wolves

Possibility that conversion occurred in group where wolf just died (group 1) to keep ears to the ground in all groups.

Choose between alors or dwin.

The possibility that there was more than one wolf per group and thus two original wolves2 in the group is just a tip of the hat to you saying there may have been more than one wolf per group. Either way, it is possible that there is a wolf in my group at this time, hence why I chose to lynch from within my own group.

 

[DVMDream]

Unofficial lynch tally

TV - 7 (SOV, SnS, dwin, nstarz, KB, FS, FFM)
dwin - 4 (LIS, DVM, tuckervet, TRH)
NStarz - 1 (abber)
3D3C - 1 (TRH)

13/14 votes cast

Lynch Deadline 7 PM EST (12 AM IT)

 

[DVMDream]

I'm not really sure what's so hard to understand.

My thought process:
One wolf per group (not necessarily 100% true at all times, but a theory to work with)

Swings (wolf) killed, conversion in same night = still 4 wolves

Possibility that conversion occurred in group where wolf just died (group 1) to keep ears to the ground in all groups.

Choose between alors or dwin.

The possibility that there was more than one wolf per group and thus two original wolves2 in the group is just a tip of the hat to you saying there may have been more than one wolf per group. Either way, it is possible that there is a wolf in my group at this time, hence why I chose to lynch from within my own group.

I would just guess that if you are going to follow your original thought process why continue with that group where the wolf was already found? I mean, why look for the convert when there are originals out there? Also, ears in groups only helps if people are talking.... I don't know about your group (but I am assuming from your posts that yours is the same) there really isn't much PMing going on over in my group. I don't know the comment of still going with your original theory and then lynching someone in a group where a wolf was already found was just odd to me... why not stick with one person consistently? Like you did with abbers before the role switch up?

 

[that redhead]

I would just guess that if you are going to follow your original thought process why continue with that group where the wolf was already found? I mean, why look for the convert when there are originals out there? Also, ears in groups only helps if people are talking.... I don't know about your group (but I am assuming from your posts that yours is the same) there really isn't much PMing going on over in my group. I don't know the comment of still going with your original theory and then lynching someone in a group where a wolf was already found was just odd to me... why not stick with one person consistently? Like you did with abbers before the role switch up?

I am applying the same theory - one wolf per group. 4 wolves - 1 wolf + 1 wolf = 4 wolves. 4 groups...

As for one person consistently, I have zero information and zero "hunch" on either dwin or alors. Others find dwin suspicious so I'm rolling with that group and tossing my vote in for hm.

 

[3Dogs3Cats]

Sorry guys, I've been at work since 8 AM EST until just now so I've only even able to skim. I'm sitting in the parking lot at work so I could check in. I'll post more once I get home but so I can get in my vote, I guess I'll go with

*****lynch tucker*****

If there was a successful conversion last night, it was not me.

 

[shortnsweet]

Hey guys...sorry I haven't been around much this afternoon...was working at the barn in the heat and now sort of want to die....

Sent from my SCH-I405 using SDN Mobile

 

[dyachei]

results pending.

 

[dyachei]

Although they aren't sure why he can't see them coming, the villagers decide to lynch tuckervet. Tuckervet was unable to hide the evidence.

You have lynched tuckervet, a wolf

Official Roster

One
1. allie - villager
2. TRH
3. Alors
4. swings - lynch avoider
5. Dwin

Two
1.SnS
2.NStarz
3. nohika - villager
4. DVMD

Three (Men's club)
1.FFM
2.SOV
3. FS
4. The LIS
5. wildcatj - villager

Four
1. abber
2. kbrown47
3. 3Dogs3Cats
4. tuckervet - Wolf Seer


Five
2. WS - Villager
3. Wld - villager
3. Hedgie - villager
4. Jamr0ckin - Villager

13 players remain.

Lynch Deadline is 8 AM EST (1 PM IT)


READ ALL MOD PMs BEFORE ANY OTHER PMs

 

[Dwindlin]

Nice.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[3Dogs3Cats]

You have lynched tuckervet, a wolf
[/B]

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