~*~*~*~ Updated Post II Acceptance Rates 2021 ~*~*~*~

[TheDataKing]

special shoutout to @Teletubby for the help on this!

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[DoctorFate]

special shoutout to @Teletubby for the help on this!

Is this for the 2019-2020 cycle or 2020-2021? The numbers on here appear identical to 2019-2020.
On our interview day for pitt we were told that in 2021, Pitt got 8601, interviewed 913, and admitted 299 of which 158 matriculated. The data here for pitt is for their 2020 cycle.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Thanks @TheDataKing

My chances based on this of not getting is .1%…too bad for autocorrelation

 

[DoctorFate]

Thanks @TheDataKing

My chances based on this of not getting is .1%…too bad for autocorrelation

do any of your recent interviews include any of your old accepts (or even schools that interviewed you in the past) or still no?

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

do any of your recent interviews include any of your old accepts (or even schools that interviewed you in the past) or still no?

No. Surprisingly only ones that I’ve applied and was rejected pre II or didn’t apply

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

I was wondering looking at this sheet. Couldn’t schools increase their yield by mainly just accepting from a waitlist? Seems somewhat logical

 

[KnightDoc]

Is this for the 2019-2020 cycle or 2020-2021? The numbers on here appear identical to 2019-2020.
On our interview day for pitt we were told that in 2021, Pitt got 8601, interviewed 913, and admitted 299 of which 158 matriculated. The data here for pitt is for their 2020 cycle.

Yeah, your Pitt numbers are hot off the presses. There is no way data that recent would be compiled and made publicly available this quickly for every school in that spreadsheet. If it's coming from USNWR (I think it is), they won't be publishing until next spring. Just look at the date of the post you are citing -- it's from last March!!!

 

[KnightDoc]

I was wondering looking at this sheet. Couldn’t schools increase their yield by mainly just accepting from a waitlist? Seems somewhat logical

??? Sure, but yield isn't a be all, end all. If it was, they could wait until the spring and then start interviewing people who don't have anything, and have a yield close to 100%! Schools could achieve the same result merely by accepting people who are not competitive at peer institutions (i.e., Penn could probably get a close to 100% yield if it limited itself to applicants with MCATs <516 rather than competing with Harvard, JHU and NYU for the limited pool of 520+.

Most well run schools want attractive candidates who are excited about their program. They understand the best candidates are going to have multiple attractive offers, and they are not going to land all of them. And that's okay and expected. A yield of 35-50% is very respectable for most schools. Even Harvard and NYU top out at around 70%.

Gaming it as you suggest would mean losing the best candidates to other schools that don't make them wait until April or May for an acceptance. The only schools that could consistently get people to drop everything when they call are the ones who already have high yields!

 

[doomer_md]

Wait KU and UMKC have identical everything? No way that's right...? I don't know much about either school but I find the fact that they have the exact same applications and acceptance rates hard to believe. Also Michigan is listed as a public school in Wisconsin.

 

[DoctorFate]

Yeah, your Pitt numbers are hot off the presses. There is no way data that recent would be compiled and made publicly available this quickly for every school in that spreadsheet. If it's coming from USNWR (I think it is), they won't be publishing until next spring. Just look at the date of the post you are citing -- it's from last March!!!

This March, not last March (it says 2021). I expected as much, it's just that the title of this thread is "Updated Post II Acceptance Rates 2021" so I wasn't sure if this was meant to be the for the 2021 cycle.

You know, this raises a question for me though. USNWR has already released their 2022 medical school rankings (they did months ago, April in fact). It's kind of ridiculous that what they deem to be a ranking for 2022 is based on 2019-2020 data, haha. It will be over two years old by the time 2022 rolls around. Probably one of the reasons many on this site disregard it.

 

[TheDataKing]

Wait KU and UMKC have identical everything? No way that's right...? I don't know much about either school but I find the fact that they have the exact same applications and acceptance rates hard to believe. Also Michigan is listed as a public school in Wisconsin.

fixed the KU UMKC data - sorry about that

 

[TheDataKing]

This March, not last March (it says 2021). I expected as much, it's just that the title of this thread is "Updated Post II Acceptance Rates 2021" so I wasn't sure if this was meant to be the for the 2021 cycle.

You know, this raises a question for me though. USNWR has already released their 2022 medical school rankings (they did months ago, April in fact). It's kind of ridiculous that what they deem to be a ranking for 2022 is based on 2019-2020 data, haha. It will be over two years old by the time 2022 rolls around. Probably one of the reasons many on this site disregard it.

This data was from USNWR's newest data release in March of 2021. It couldn't have been from the 2020-2021 application cycle because that cycle was not over yet. I put 2021 in the title because it is from the 2021 data.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Is there any raw data for IIs received. Seems that aamc surveys use bins such that after a certain number of IIs, it’s impossible to tell where you stand on the bell curve.

It would be so much better to just have unbinned data.

Do we even know the mean or standard deviation of IIs received? At least then a distribution could be approximated.

 

[DoctorFate]

Is there any raw data for IIs received. Seems that aamc surveys use bins such that after a certain number of IIs, it’s impossible to tell where you stand on the bell curve.

It would be so much better to just have unbinned data.

Do we even know the mean or standard deviation of IIs received? At least then a distribution could be approximated.

Is what you're asking related to this USNWR data? It's a little hard for me to understand the question. Do you mean you just wish the AAMC released the total percentage of applicants with each number of interviews?

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Yes to your second question. I know that @gonnif has posted a matriculation survey in which aamc reports the number of interviews per matriculant but the data is in bins rather than linked to each number of interviews

 

[gardensoflife]

Are the numbers for UVA legit? As in the OOS post-II acceptance is really almost 8 in 10?

 

[KnightDoc]

"all hope abandon ye who enter here"
inscription on entrance to Hell in Dante's Inferno

Data on interviews per applicant is not, repeat, not examined by AMCAS during the application process as an aggregate. The interview matrix found for each school found in the MSAR is something that is reported/edited "directly" by schools. By that I mean, AAMC/AMCAS does not analyze/process these numbers, they just get dumped into MSAR of raw numbers from each schools intake system, all of which communicate with the AMCAS system. The reason being there is no standardization across schools on this as to the number of interview slots and how that relates that relates to the number/percent of applicants the schools chooses to interview. This is also why AMCAS does not analyze numbers/percent of WL/Alternates. It would be nice if they did an applicant/matriculant showing number/percent interviews by a GPA/MCAT matrix. My guess is it would closely match acceptance data

Despite the desire to read the tea leaves or the crystal ball, there is no benefit in some aggregate analysis of interviews. The numbers for each school exist in MSAR and you can knock yourself out with them. The only information I provide are:

1) Simply by the numbers of applicants per school, the finite number of interview slots, at least 80% of applications at any individual school will not get an interview invite. Any possible increase in the number of invites due to virtual interviews is certainly offset by the increased number of applicants, likely 20%+ from 2019 matriculation year (post pandemic cycles)
2) from the matriculating student questionnaire, which are reported by the accepted students and not collected by school reported data to AMCAS. This is where the average number of 3 interviews per matriculant comes. This is also where the roughly half (47%) of matriculants receive a single acceptance comes from.

Right. I'm pretty sure what he is looking for is something more complete than what is provided by the matriculant survey that tells him how many interviews each applicant has, and how many convert into acceptances, so he can handicap his odds with precision.

He is ignoring the fact that outcomes are not random, and that stars outperform while those with issues under perform. He is also ignoring the fact that his situation is unique, so a bell curve of people who are not him is not going to be able to accurately predict his outcome. In any event, the data he wants is neither compiled nor released, so he is SOL here, and has nothing to go on other than most people with 6+ IIs receive 2+ As.

 

[wormofsecrets]

@TheDataKing Hello I appreciate all you have done for this forum and I had a question about one school in particular. UVA says they received 6629 total apps for the cycle yet it is different from the number provided. Likewise, the spreadsheet says its total post ii-acceptance is 80.3% but on their website they claim to extend 584 interviews and accept around 300 applicants. I feel like I am missing something and was wondering if you could please offer clarification.

 

[DoctorFate]

Where do you see that they accept around 300?

@TheDataKing Hello I appreciate all you have done for this forum and I had a question about one school in particular. UVA says they received 6629 total apps for the cycle yet it is different from the number provided. Likewise, the spreadsheet says its total post ii-acceptance is 80.3% but on their website they claim to extend 584 interviews and accept around 300 applicants. I feel like I am missing something and was wondering if you could please offer clarification.

 

[gardensoflife]

Where do you see that they accept around 300?

Interviews & Offers - Admissions

Interviews The School of Medicine extends approximately 650 interviews a year. Interviews are offered between Monday and Thursday in groups of 6 or 8. Two faculty members on the Admissions Committee or one faculty member and one student will each spend 30 minutes with interview candidates. The...

med.virginia.edu

 

[wormofsecrets]

Where do you see that they accept around 300?

@gardensoflife provided the link and if you click the link I embedded in the number, the section titled “About The Application Process” also lists this 300 number. It is near the top of the page.

 

[DoctorFate]

@gardensoflife provided the link and if you click the link I embedded in the number, the section titled “About The Application Process” also lists this 300 number. It is near the top of the page.

Gotcha. @TheDataKing pulled the numbers on the spreadsheet from USNWR, which is reported directly from the school. The numbers are retrospective so it's unlikely they are wrong. The numbers are from the 2019-2020 application cycle, so perhaps they have changed since then.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

A friend who applied in 2019 told me that they were emailing people to come off of alternate list which is pretty rare for a school like uva. I’m guessing that the onset of the pandemic may have impacted some people’s decisions so they took more from WL than usual.

 

[DoctorFate]

A friend who applied in 2019 told me that they were emailing people to come off of alternate list which is pretty rare for a school like uva. I’m guessing that the onset of the pandemic may have impacted some people’s decisions so they took more from WL than usual.

Meanwhile, Pitt had to go the opposite direction. Took none off the waitlist and still ended up over 5% overenrolled.

 

[TheDataKing]

Gotcha. @TheDataKing pulled the numbers on the spreadsheet from USNWR, which is reported directly from the school. The numbers are retrospective so it's unlikely they are wrong. The numbers are from the 2019-2020 application cycle, so perhaps they have changed since then.

this

 

[NegativeMargin]

Hello,

Slightly off topic, but what would cause schools that were ranked in previous years to be unranked this year? Is it usual to see movement that great from schools that used to be in the top 50 or even top 30 or 20 in some years, now be unranked? What factors are involved and should I be worried about a school that was once in one of those positions being bopped out of the list entirely?

Edit: also thank you for all this work you have done.

 

[DoctorFate]

Hello,

Slightly off topic, but what would cause schools that were ranked in previous years to be unranked this year? Is it usual to see movement that great from schools that used to be in the top 50 or even top 30 or 20 in some years, now be unranked? What factors are involved and should I be worried about a school that was once in one of those positions being bopped out of the list entirely?

Edit: also thank you for all this work you have done.

Could you name the school? I usually see schools go from unranked to ranked, but rarely vice versa.

 

[NegativeMargin]

Could you name the school? I usually see schools go from unranked to ranked, but rarely vice versa.

MCW. Perhaps the USNWR isn't what I was looking at previously and I am mistaken?

 

[doomer_md]

MCW. Perhaps the USNWR isn't what I was looking at previously and I am mistaken?

I don’t think MCW has ever been T50

 

[deleted1025488]

MCW. Perhaps the USNWR isn't what I was looking at previously and I am mistaken?

I don’t think MCW has ever been T50

MCW's ranking doesn't really do justice to the school. As one of two medical schools in Wisconsin it matches quite well to all specialties if you don't mind staying in Wisconsin (either at UW or MCW itself). Froedert, it's hospital, is also one of if not the best in the state, and greatly outdoes its medical school; people coming out of there for residencies even in stuff like ortho seem to match across the nation. Not at places like massgen but again not like it matters.

Also the residencies are decent, like the ortho program somehow has higher output than UChicago...

 

[MyOdyssey]

MCW's ranking doesn't really do justice to the school. As one of two medical schools in Wisconsin it matches quite well to all specialties if you don't mind staying in Wisconsin (either at UW or MCW itself). Froedert, it's hospital, is also one of if not the best in the state, and greatly outdoes its medical school; people coming out of there for residencies even in stuff like ortho seem to match across the nation. Not at places like massgen but again not like it matters.

Also the residencies are decent, like the ortho program somehow has higher output than UChicago...

<<Also the residencies are decent, like the ortho program somehow has higher output than UChicago...>>

What do you mean by higher output in this context?

 

[deleted1025488]

<<Also the residencies are decent, like the ortho program somehow has higher output than UChicago...>>

What do you mean by higher output in this context?

Research output, usually what people use to 'rank' residencies beyond name prestige, from what I can understand.

 

[reapplicant2021]

Insane that UCF's Step 1 mean was 253. Just got a II from them just now. With a 74% post-II rate, I think I'm in love.

 

[TreasureSeeker]

Does post-II acceptance also include WL applicants who were offered acceptance? Just wondering, thanks!

 

[KnightDoc]

Does post-II acceptance also include WL applicants who were offered acceptance? Just wondering, thanks!

Always. Acceptance data is always reported well after the cycle is over, at which point an acceptance is an acceptance is an acceptance!

 

[goge69]

Is there an updated tracker for 2022-23 data?

 

[NotADoctor1]

Is there an updated tracker for 2022-23 data?

I saw one floating around on reddit recently, but I think it got deleted