What is the Number of Interviews needed to increase match chances?

[Hamlet MD]

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Hi Everyone,

I think I read this before on this forum but I wanted to check. I read on one post that said if you interview at 10 places, you have a 99% chance of matching into EM. I read another that stated that the percentage was >90% if you interview at 10 places.

I was wondering which is true and secondly, is there any evidence to support these comments.

Thanks in advance

 

[EMApplicant]

Hi Everyone,

I think I read this before on this forum but I wanted to check. I read on one post that said if you interview at 10 places, you have a 99% chance of matching into EM. I read another that stated that the percentage was >90% if you interview at 10 places.

I was wondering which is true and secondly, is there any evidence to support these comments.

Thanks in advance

The only stat that I would trust at this point is that if you interview at 0 programs you have a 0% chance of matching into EM, while if you interview at 1 or more programs you have a greater than 0% chance of matching. Basically, I think all situations are unique and you never know either way. Of course, having said that we all know that most will match.

 

[mountaindew2006]

The only stat that I would trust at this point is that if you interview at 0 programs you have a 0% chance of matching into EM, while if you interview at 1 or more programs you have a greater than 0% chance of matching. Basically, I think all situations are unique and you never know either way. Of course, having said that we all know that most will match.

even with a 197 on Step 1 ???? 😕 😕 😕

 

[EMApplicant]

even with a 197 on Step 1 ???? 😕 😕 😕

Who knows? I'm sure it wouldn't be the first time...or the last time. You should be looking at the whole application, because i'm sure the PDs do.

 

[NinerNiner999]

In general (and you can confirm this by looking at freida) most programs interview 10 times the number of people they have spots for (i.e. a program with 12 spots will interview about 120 people). Given this, I would say that the odds of you matching are 1 in 10 wherever you interview. That being said, if you interview at 10 programs, you will match at one of them. Historically (and please do a search on this site) ten interviews gives you a high (95-99% chance) of matching...

 

[beriberi]

The number you need to increase your chances:

n+1

where n is the number of programs you interview at.

But seriously, more interviews equals higher chances. Your chances will be higher if you interview at 20 or 30 or 40, but the marginal benefit is small.

I interviewed at 5 programs, of which 2 or 3 were probably interviewing me out of geographic obligation--I was not competitive for their programs. Ranked 4 (didn't want to stay at the home school) and did not match. (With a board score bit below yours). Very happy post scramble. Should have applied more broadly, but by the time that was apparent, it was too late.

My point: the more interviews the better. If you are borderline (and you might not be, despite the board score) less than 10 is probably not enough.

 

[The White Coat Investor]

8-10. More than 15 is stupid. Less than 8 is IMHO risky.