Whats the new "Magic Number"?

[deleted109597]

That info is from the 2005 match though. It will be at least 2 years before I know how many places I should have ranked.


Alternatively, I vote that the NRMP does something new with couple's matches. It should run the list as a couple, and if that doesn't work, it should separate them. I have had at least 2 programs tell me that I would have matched, but the couple's match prevented me from doing so. If that doesn't piss a man off, I don't know what does.

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[migm]

Bump.. and for 2013 that magic number is now...?

 

[EMquest3]

Bump.. and for 2013 that magic number is now...?

Based on the 2011 charting outcomes the magic number looks to be 15. I am going to shoot for 15+ (currently at 14) since it seems like competition has increased since 2011.

 

[FSU2013]

Based on the 2011 charting outcomes the magic number looks to be 15. I am going to shoot for 15+ (currently at 14) since it seems like competition has increased since 2011.

Whoa whoa whoa. Let's not get excited here.....

 

[justin8818]

No joke. I was thinking more along the lines of 11 or 12...

 

[SeekerOfTheTree]

Based on the 2011 charting outcomes the magic number looks to be 15. I am going to shoot for 15+ (currently at 14) since it seems like competition has increased since 2011.

Really 15? I am keeping it at 10.

 

[EMquest3]

Whoa whoa whoa. Let's not get excited here.....

The question was about the "magic number" which I take to mean the number that will get you as close to 100% chance at matching as possible. Looking at the 2011 charting outcomes data only groups who ranked 15 or more spots had 0 go unmatched. Therefore, I suggest that is the minimum for a "magic number." Many have said this season seems even more competitive so it does not seem unreasonable that the number could be even higher.

 

[migm]

We should also consider what percent that ranked 12, 13, 14 matched as well, just to give a sense for how much you fall off the "curve"

 

[winkleweizen]

We should also consider what percent that ranked 12, 13, 14 matched as well, just to give a sense for how much you fall off the "curve"

High 90s%

 

[FSU2013]

The question was about the "magic number" which I take to mean the number that will get you as close to 100% chance at matching as possible. Looking at the 2011 charting outcomes data only groups who ranked 15 or more spots had 0 go unmatched. Therefore, I suggest that is the minimum for a "magic number." Many have said this season seems even more competitive so it does not seem unreasonable that the number could be even higher.

By that logic, the number of people that ranked 20 or more probably had close to a 100%chance of matching as well. Why not us that as your gold standard?

Two years ago you had a 90% chance of matching if you ranked between 6 and 7 - about 95% at 8-9 - and 98%+ at 11-12.

Even if there is a significant increase in competitiveness (it seems like people say this about every specialty every year....), let's say those numbers are bumped up by 1 position, which would be a statistically significant jump. That would still be 90% at 7-8; 95% at 9-10 and 98+ at 12-13.

Everybody breathe.

 

[migm]

I bumped the thread just to get an update on what this number and the trend is since the thread was several years old, not to give everyone Chvostek's sign

 

[SeekerOfTheTree]

69

 

[DeadCactus]

I'd say 9 - 12 is plenty with 12 -15 being ideal. I'd argue that getting 15 interviews is more important prognostically than actually going to 15 interviews and that splitting your rankings between safety, middle tier, and reach programs is more important than how many you rank...

The difference in 2011 between ranking 9 and ranking 15 was going from 95% to 99%. A small difference but a large difference when risk when you consider what the cost you're taking a 1/20 chance on. But it's not a random process. I'd speculate those extra 4% are either people who either:
a) are reaching for EM and struggled to get those 9 interviews or
b) just barely made the cut for several highly competitive residencies, got cocky, and didn't rank lower tier programs

In short, the most sensibly strategy to me is to rank 9 programs (3 which are safeties and 6 which you are competitive at) you have a strong shot at and then climb closer to 15 by pursuing reach programs.

Caveat: Like most things in medicine these numbers are arbitrary and chosen simply because they make for round numbers with nice symmetry. The 2011 match statistics are the only empirically based numbers here.

 

[hiimme]

b) just barely made the cut for several highly competitive residencies

In short, the most sensibly strategy to me is to rank 9 programs (3 which are safeties and 6 which you are competitive at) you have a strong shot at and then climb closer to 15 by pursuing reach programs.

i feel like b sums me up for a lot of my interviews. how do we know where we are competitive at when it comes to ranking? i know there are lots of threads about "best" programs and the consensus is that no one knows but do we at least have a good sense of what the "competitive" programs are?

i don't but, if someone does, i'd love to know.

 

[bad virus]

i feel like b sums me up for a lot of my interviews. how do we know where we are competitive at when it comes to ranking? i know there are lots of threads about "best" programs and the consensus is that no one knows but do we at least have a good sense of what the "competitive" programs are?

i don't but, if someone does, i'd love to know.

I am curious about this as well. I don't plan on going to more than 9.

In no particular order, are all of these reach programs and am I being stupid for only doing these?

1. Alameda
2. Maricopa
3. U of A
4. UNM
5. Texas Tech
6. Hennepin
7. Indy
8. Cook
9. Pitt, Carolinas, Christiana, Vandy.

It's not like I am applying to Dook or MGH (Man's Greatest Hospital) - I don't got the research prowess for that.

 

[winkleweizen]

I am curious about this as well. I don't plan on going to more than 9.

In no particular order, are all of these reach programs and am I being stupid for only doing these?

1. Alameda
2. Maricopa
3. U of A
4. UNM
5. Texas Tech
6. Hennepin
7. Indy
8. Cook
9. Pitt, Carolinas, Christiana, Vandy.

It's not like I am applying to Dook or MGH (Man's Greatest Hospital) - I don't got the research prowess for that.

lol most/all of those places are all more competitive then dook (lower case d come on). Idk much about alameda or texas tech, or your stats, but all of those other places are competitive.

 

[bad virus]

lol most/all of those places are all more competitive then dook (lower case d come on). Idk much about alameda or texas tech, or your stats, but all of those other places are competitive.

I thought dook, MGH, Hopkins etc . . . was always top dawg?

BTW Alameda is aka Highland up in Oakland (what can I say, I love the Raiders).

So what you are telling me is I might need to restructure a bit by taking some out and adding some in.

 

[Apollyon]

I thought dook, MGH, Hopkins etc . . . was always top dawg?

BTW Alameda is aka Highland up in Oakland (what can I say, I love the Raiders).

So what you are telling me is I might need to restructure a bit by taking some out and adding some in.

I went to Duke for res, and I'll tell you that 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, and 9 are all places higher on the list. It's getting better, for sure, but still isn't top dawg.

Your Ivys and southern Ivys, which, in general, are the power, aren't usually for EM. I mean, some are, but it's not across the board.

 

[winkleweizen]

I thought dook, MGH, Hopkins etc . . . was always top dawg?

BTW Alameda is aka Highland up in Oakland (what can I say, I love the Raiders).

So what you are telling me is I might need to restructure a bit by taking some out and adding some in.

Not necessarily, if you go on 12 interviews, even if they are top places I would say you have a pretty doggone good chance of matching. If you were to say only go on 7 or 8, then I would probably through some safeties in.

 

[FMtoEM]

Probably the least ranks that gets you 100%. 15 according to 2011 Outcomes results. 15 is painful though. And as some have suggested above the best list has a mixture of reach, you are competitive, and safety programs.