??? WW Game Thread - October 2021

Started by kaydubs
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kaydubs said:
? Day 1 ? *FINAL* Vote Tally

genny ()
DubZ (1) - genny
Chaos (4) - DubZ, Zenge, Cray, sunshine
sunshine (2) - AM, cubs
Zenge ()
cubs ()
AM ()
Cray (2) - Chaos, Visc

9/9

Danger zone: @Chaostrodon
Missing: n/a

Vote closed at 10pm, YESTERDAY, Oct. 14th
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Want to cement my thoughts about this tally for analysis moving forward.

Everyone on Chaos looks good, except:
Dubz looks good on Chaos unless it was an early bus. Sunny could be bussing as well. Somewhat less cautious of that being the case with Zenge because of placement, but need to reassess all 3.

Otherwise look at everyone off vote. Genny, AM, cubs, Visc. Wonder likelihood Visc voted with Chaos. I want to say unlikely, but Visc feels wrong somehow.
 
Crayola227 said:
Everyone on Chaos looks good, except:
Dubz looks good on Chaos unless it was an early bus. Sunny could be bussing as well. Somewhat less cautious of that being the case with Zenge because of placement, but need to reassess all 3.
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Why do you have to say things like this when I just want to take my village clearance and die
 
Crayola227 said:
Want to cement my thoughts about this tally for analysis moving forward.

Everyone on Chaos looks good, except:
Dubz looks good on Chaos unless it was an early bus. Sunny could be bussing as well. Somewhat less cautious of that being the case with Zenge because of placement, but need to reassess all 3.

Otherwise look at everyone off vote. Genny, AM, cubs, Visc. Wonder likelihood Visc voted with Chaos. I want to say unlikely, but Visc feels wrong somehow.
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I definitely wasn’t bussing because:

1. I’m not a wolf
2. I only voted there for self prez. I didn’t even have a sus read on him.

WildZoo said:
I think in most universes it's either AM or sunny, right? Or maybe cubs?

Z and I could both be wrong on Vis but that doesn't feel terribly likely, and neither does her joining him on cray.
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How the heck would it be me??
 
sunshinefl said:
I definitely wasn’t bussing because:

1. I’m not a wolf
2. I only voted there for self prez. I didn’t even have a sus read on him.


How the heck would it be me??
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Well you answered that for yourself lol you only voted there for self prez, so I can't give you cred for the vote
 
There is always a chance I'm being stubborn about my village leans and therefore not looking at things right. But wolves putting each other in danger if they don't have to feels less likely in a game this size. So I don't see cray, zenge, or genny as real possibilities (at least until the paranoia hits later). Vis and cubs are out in my mind for other reasons, not VCA.
 
WildZoo said:
There is always a chance I'm being stubborn about my village leans and therefore not looking at things right. But wolves putting each other in danger if they don't have to feels less likely in a game this size. So I don't see cray, zenge, or genny as real possibilities (at least until the paranoia hits later). Vis and cubs are out in my mind for other reasons, not VCA.
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Tell me about the other reasons because I want to think it’s Vis.
 
WildZoo said:
Vis but that doesn't feel terribly likely, and neither does her joining him on cray.
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Yeah, this really stands out to me. I mean sure the dreaded WIFOM, but realistically, I don’t see wolf!Vis voting with pack mate wolf!chaos. It’s possible I suppose but it’s one more thing that make me lean more towards village!vis. Or at least not pack mates with chaos!vis.
 
WildZoo said:
Honestly just a feel
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wow-amused.gif
 
NIGHT 1

After some dreams containing telepathic messages, the guests awoke and proceeded to the dining room for caffeination (or something stronger).

Some had packed their bags since the crime had been solved (and they didn’t want to linger in fear for their lives).

Astutely, someone suggested a quick role call and quickly determined one of their number was missing.
C23B1C0F-7A30-40BC-88E3-2E9A58B5D153.png

Removed from the premises is @WildZoo who was green, a vanillager.

Whodunnit?

7 guests
Roster:
1. @Animal Midwife
2. @Crayola227
3. @genny
4. @Viscernable
5. @sunshinefl
6. @Zenge142
15. @cubsrule4e

Deadsville:
16. @Chaostrodon - grey, VANILLA WOLF
7. @WildZoo - green, vanillager


Spec:
1. smol @supershorty
2. @Lawpy
3. @vetschoolsletmeinplease
4. @Barkley13
5. @samac
6. @alleycat03
7. @BobLoblaw78
8. @Dinashadow

It is Day 2! Please cast a vote to identify the murderer among you. Vote deadline is 10pm EDT, TOMORROW, October 16th.​
 
Zenge142 said:
Early village read on Vis for the use of the word “wolves” here.

We’ve already established that 2 wolves would be “perfectly balanced” according to AM and probably math. There’s a possibility of one wolf with a conversion. But these seem to be the two possibilities we’re working with. 3 wolves seems like a lot.

So for the sake of the analysis, I’ll assume a two wolf pack with the lower chance of a possibility of a lone wolf and possible convert.

So Vis used the word “wolves”, the plural. So what?

My thinking is that there’s a hand full of possibilities where Vis, when making this joke to Genny, decided to use the plural “wolves” instead of the singular “wolf”.

1. There’s a perfect balance of two wolves, in total. Vis, as a villager, used to playing games where there’s more than two wolves, jokingly asks Genny to reveal the other “wolves”. Plural. Meaning Vis wasn’t really thinking about pack numbers when making this joke, and being used to scenarios where there would be more than two wolves in a pack used the plural “wolves” instead of the more likely “wolf”. Viscernable’s choice of the plural, and decided lack of thought behind pack numbers seems like a village decision.

2. Vis is in a pack of 2 wolves, and knowing full well there’s only one other wolf, decided to tailor the joke carefully and use the word wolves, instead of wolf, as an intentional layer of deception. This seems like an unlikely 4d chess move. At least, if I’m looking over option 1 and option 2, then option 1 seems much more likely, looking at them side by side.

3. Vis is a lone wolf, and would once again revert to the more natural “wolves” instead of “wolf”. Overall it’s too early to seriously consider a lone wolf with possible conversion, so I’ll just leave this here to make note of it’s possibility, but I’m not taking it as a serious possibility at this juncture.

So with the assumption that there’s two OG wolves, and we’re looking at the two possibilities, of scenarios 1 & 2, it seems like scenario 1 is far more likely than scenario 2.

So operating under the assumption that there’s 2 OG wolves in total, I think Vis’s off handed joke asking Genny “who the other ‘wolves’ are”, and the seeming lack of “too much information” by using the plural instead of the singular, I think it’s more likely than not that Vis is village.
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Zenge142 said:
I mean, having wolfed with Vis, I don’t remember her being obsessively over concerned with tiny details like using plural vs. singular and how it would be perceived. I do think scenario two is possible but I think between the two options scenario one just seems more likely.
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Zenge142 said:
Yeah, this really stands out to me. I mean sure the dreaded WIFOM, but realistically, I don’t see wolf!Vis voting with pack mate wolf!chaos. It’s possible I suppose but it’s one more thing that make me lean more towards village!vis. Or at least not pack mates with chaos!vis.
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:eggface:
 
genny said:
And then there’s that part of my brain that goes “maybe AM converted Zenge last night.”
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If there are three wolves, including one conversion, bringing the ratio up to 37.5%, I will personally say the game is unbalanced.
 
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