Your list for individual stocks

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bravotwozero

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Doing this just as a thought exercise. If one were to use the motley fool approach of creating a portfolio with individual stock picking of 25 companies, what would you guys pick? Don’t have to go all the way to #25.

I personally just park my money in an index fund, and don’t recommend this approach, but thought it’d be fun to discuss.

My no brainers:

Amazon
AirBnb
Wal mart
Home Depot
Lowe’s
Microsoft
Starbucks
Costco
Apple
Alphabet
Coca cola
Pepsi
Chipotle
McDonalds
Taiwan semi conductor
Toyota
Crowdstrike
Nvidia

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$TSLA

Costco, chipotle, apple

Edit: lol toyota? already dethroned in CA by TSLA, they are about 5 years behind on electrification. wouldn't bet on them
 
$TSLA

Costco, chipotle, apple

Edit: lol toyota? already dethroned in CA by TSLA, they are about 5 years behind on electrification. wouldn't bet on them
Them corrollas still sell like hotcakes around the world though. And their reputation for reliability stands to this day.

Good call on the chipotle. Definitely should have been on my list, don’t know how I missed that.
 
TQQQ bought it too high, bought it at 17. Just buy it and forget it. 10 years from now, you'll be very happy.

From 2010 to 2020 it went up 100 fold. Seriously.
 
Mostly do index funds but i have most of these as well

Chevron
Coca Cola
Johnson and Johnson
Medtronic
Abbvie
Altria
Proctor and Gamble
Costco
Home Depot
Smith and Wesson
L3Harris
Raytheon
Microsoft
Apple
AMD
Taiwan Semiconductor
Amazon
Google
O
Stag
 
It got down to like what, 17.. I bought all the way down. Kill it again. I will load more..

Market crashes 20%? Awesome, loading VUG VIG VPU XLV XLF..and our fav TQQQ.
Market crashes 50%? ALL IN

Horizon: 10+ years

You need that money in the next 2 years? Cash is King.

Last crash I only went in... about 5% more. Stupid me. I thought we were gonna go down another 20% for an ALL IN moment but I have to say.. I like having lots of 4% earning CASH sitting around and not worrying or giving a **** in the big picture about what happens (but hey who we kidding, I still worry just not existential dread)
 
It got down to like what, 17.. I bought all the way down. Kill it again. I will load more..

Market crashes 20%? Awesome, loading VUG VIG VPU XLV XLF..and our fav TQQQ.
Market crashes 50%? ALL IN

Horizon: 10+ years

You need that money in the next 2 years? Cash is King.

Last crash I only went in... about 5% more. Stupid me. I thought we were gonna go down another 20% for an ALL IN moment but I have to say.. I like having lots of 4% earning CASH sitting around and not worrying or giving a **** in the big picture about what happens (but hey who we kidding, I still worry just not existential dread)
You know the way sir. Way too many docs who are too conservative and scared of TQQQ. But as a young physician, I feel that it's the way to go.
 
ELI LILLY (LLY)
Novo Nordisk (NVO)

I think both these companies are worth 500 billion each based on their GLP1s alone. Mounjaro works better than Ozempic but I'd buy both.
 
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You know the way sir. Way too many docs who are too conservative and scared of TQQQ. But as a young physician, I feel that it's the way to go.
Stomach of iron to handle going from $83 to $17 without flinching. Not sure why anyone would hold an investment long term whose stated investment objective is short term. If you really want to use leverage, I think I'd use leverage external to the fund.
 
Because if you're smart you buy closer to 17, not 83. Ie, you only buy when there is a major (30%) correction and you keep buying all the way down. Takes a champ to get hit and keep coming for more.

Super Bowl Lol GIF by Coca-Cola
 
ELI LILLY (LLY)
Novo Nordisk (NVO)

I think both these companies are worth 500 billion each based on their GLP1s alone. Mounjaro works better than Ozempic but I'd buy both.
Did anyone follow this?
 
$TSLA

Costco, chipotle, apple

Edit: lol toyota? already dethroned in CA by TSLA, they are about 5 years behind on electrification. wouldn't bet on them
Tesla is wildly overvalued, their P:E is 46.88, compared to Toyota at 9.68. Toyota is a global company, selling everywhere from Argentina to Zimbabwe. Their profits remain many times that of Tesla, and it seems likely that Tesla will have strong headwinds as other manufacturers enter the electric space and actually have something resembling build quality
 
Tesla is wildly overvalued, their P:E is 46.88, compared to Toyota at 9.68. Toyota is a global company, selling everywhere from Argentina to Zimbabwe. Their profits remain many times that of Tesla, and it seems likely that Tesla will have strong headwinds as other manufacturers enter the electric space and actually have something resembling build quality
do you own Toyota or Tesla? (or short them?) if not, go kick some tires elsewhere.
 
do you own Toyota or Tesla? (or short them?) if not, go kick some tires elsewhere.
I generally only invest in individual stocks during recessions when they are on sale, then convert to ETFs when the market recovers, so right now I have zero individual stocks after selling all the oil companies I purchased during COVID and using them to invest in growth ETFs once the market stabilized. I am a boring investor like that, I like to buy reliable companies when they are at a discount. Toyota was at one about a year ago, but alas, at this time I would say I'm better off in a growth-focused ETF than Tesla or Toyota. Market performance of the two seems to back up my feelings on the matter- Tesla was once a great buy, but no longer. I'll let you guess which of these represents which company that starts with a T.
Screenshot_20240303_170527_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20240303_170551_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
I generally only invest in individual stocks during recessions when they are on sale, then convert to ETFs when the market recovers, so right now I have zero individual stocks after selling all the oil companies I purchased during COVID and using them to invest in growth ETFs once the market stabilized. I am a boring investor like that, I like to buy reliable companies when they are at a discount. Toyota was at one about a year ago, but alas, at this time I would say I'm better off in a growth-focused ETF than Tesla or Toyota. Market performance of the two seems to back up my feelings on the matter- Tesla was once a great buy, but no longer. I'll let you guess which of these represents which company that starts with a T.
View attachment 383532
View attachment 383533
Lol.

TM and TSLA respectively
 
I generally only invest in individual stocks during recessions when they are on sale, then convert to ETFs when the market recovers, so right now I have zero individual stocks after selling all the oil companies I purchased during COVID and using them to invest in growth ETFs once the market stabilized. I am a boring investor like that, I like to buy reliable companies when they are at a discount. Toyota was at one about a year ago, but alas, at this time I would say I'm better off in a growth-focused ETF than Tesla or Toyota. Market performance of the two seems to back up my feelings on the matter- Tesla was once a great buy, but no longer. I'll let you guess which of these represents which company that starts with a T.
View attachment 383532
View attachment 383533
TSLA stock price one day after your post (March 4, 2024) was $198.73
We closed on Friday at $352.56, for a return of 77.4% in the ~8 months since
Thankfully I held shares and leaps (long dated call options) and was able to triple my account in that time
Good luck holding growth ETF's since Tesla was not a "great buy"

Bitcoin has also nearly tripled in the last 12 months, which is another staple in my investing portfolio. (White coat investors might be surprised that I have diversified investments including index funds, bonds, pension, etc)
 
Tesla is wildly overvalued, their P:E is 46.88, compared to Toyota at 9.68. Toyota is a global company, selling everywhere from Argentina to Zimbabwe. Their profits remain many times that of Tesla, and it seems likely that Tesla will have strong headwinds as other manufacturers enter the electric space and actually have something resembling build quality
oh my goodness, even 8 months ago people thought Tesla was a car company? Most undervalued real-world AI company in the world , already exceeded 1T market cap, and headed toward 3T in the next 2 years imo 🤖
 
TSLA stock price one day after your post (March 4, 2024) was $198.73
We closed on Friday at $352.56, for a return of 77.4% in the ~8 months since
Thankfully I held shares and leaps (long dated call options) and was able to triple my account in that time
Good luck holding growth ETF's since Tesla was not a "great buy"

Bitcoin has also nearly tripled in the last 12 months, which is another staple in my investing portfolio. (White coat investors might be surprised that I have diversified investments including index funds, bonds, pension, etc)
I sold my 71 shares about 3 months ago for a small profit. I thought Elon was getting too wild. Now I regret selling the damn thing.
 
TSLA stock price one day after your post (March 4, 2024) was $198.73
We closed on Friday at $352.56, for a return of 77.4% in the ~8 months since
Thankfully I held shares and leaps (long dated call options) and was able to triple my account in that time
Good luck holding growth ETF's since Tesla was not a "great buy"

Bitcoin has also nearly tripled in the last 12 months, which is another staple in my investing portfolio. (White coat investors might be surprised that I have diversified investments including index funds, bonds, pension, etc)
As the saying goes, gambling is easy when you win. Anyone can pick and choose data points. Tesla was also down to $140 at one point, and you didn't see me coming in to trash you then because I'm playing the long game. Right now people are riding high on the idea that Elon's involvement with Trump will be a positive boon; we'll see how that holds in the long run. AI is still nonsense, Tesla's robotaxis won't ever happen for various reasons, and their only real market will be robots that cost more than existing manufacturing tech and cars that are just cars. Tesla is trading at a PE of 96.59 and will be hard pressed to produce profits that correlate with its current valuation. Bitcoin may be more durable, but it is something that oscillates wildly with time. Could be 100k, but 6 months later it could be back down in the 30s. My bet is still that investors will realize that 0.62 cents per share in a quarter doesn't justify a share price of nearly $300 with regard to Tesla though. Hell, if Elon got in a car crash and died tomorrow Tesla would likely tank to well below $100 within the week.

In the short term, the market is a popularity contest. In the long term, it is a weighing machine. Fundamentals eventually prevail once exuberance subsides. I prefer to stick with investments that have long-term and proven value which will continue to pay out for the rest of my life, rather than something that clearly is a bubble and I'm just holding on long enough to sell and not be left holding the bag. If you want to hang your future on a salesman with a Diablo III problem that has a proven track record of grand designs that end up being nothing but hot air, be my guest. Maybe you'll cash out at the right time, or maybe you'll be left with the bag, only time will tell.
 
As the saying goes, gambling is easy when you win. Anyone can pick and choose data points. Tesla was also down to $140 at one point, and you didn't see me coming in to trash you then because I'm playing the long game. Right now people are riding high on the idea that Elon's involvement with Trump will be a positive boon; we'll see how that holds in the long run. AI is still nonsense, Tesla's robotaxis won't ever happen for various reasons, and their only real market will be robots that cost more than existing manufacturing tech and cars that are just cars. Tesla is trading at a PE of 96.59 and will be hard pressed to produce profits that correlate with its current valuation. Bitcoin may be more durable, but it is something that oscillates wildly with time. Could be 100k, but 6 months later it could be back down in the 30s. My bet is still that investors will realize that 0.62 cents per share in a quarter doesn't justify a share price of nearly $300 with regard to Tesla though. Hell, if Elon got in a car crash and died tomorrow Tesla would likely tank to well below $100 within the week.

In the short term, the market is a popularity contest. In the long term, it is a weighing machine. Fundamentals eventually prevail once exuberance subsides. I prefer to stick with investments that have long-term and proven value which will continue to pay out for the rest of my life, rather than something that clearly is a bubble and I'm just holding on long enough to sell and not be left holding the bag. If you want to hang your future on a salesman with a Diablo III problem that has a proven track record of grand designs that end up being nothing but hot air, be my guest. Maybe you'll cash out at the right time, or maybe you'll be left with the bag, only time will tell.
I realized a ton of gains by selling my call options ... I completely agree that over time the stock market is a weighing machine. I wouldn't denigrate you for diversifying and relying on index funds. The part of your post that I disagree with most is the bolded. Then again I use FSD every single day on my commute and don't actually drive my own car anymore. I see autonomous driving as inevitable, and have put my money on the industry leader. You can call it a gamble if you'd like; to each his own.
 
I realized a ton of gains by selling my call options ... I completely agree that over time the stock market is a weighing machine. I wouldn't denigrate you for diversifying and relying on index funds. The part of your post that I disagree with most is the bolded. Then again I use FSD every single day on my commute and don't actually drive my own car anymore. I see autonomous driving as inevitable, and have put my money on the industry leader. You can call it a gamble if you'd like; to each his own.
Full autonomous driving won't happen for the simple reason that states likely won't allow it, as even a single accident will be enough to shelve the technology. Either people or the manufacturer will be responsible for any accidents, and people won't want to put themselves on the line for an computer, nor will a manufacturer survive lawsuits that boil down to negligence.

AI, well. Watch and wait. Our models just aren't good enough to do what people expect of them, and barring a shift to an entirely new model AI will never live up to the hype, because all current models still lack fundamental understanding of even basic concepts and utilize pattern recognition alone. No amount of scaling the models can fix this, they'll need to be remade from the bottom up. Most people putting money in are too old or inexperienced to actually understand the foundational problems with current technology, so they just keep throwing money at it figuring the hype will be real.
 
TSLA stock price one day after your post (March 4, 2024) was $198.73
We closed on Friday at $352.56, for a return of 77.4% in the ~8 months since
Thankfully I held shares and leaps (long dated call options) and was able to triple my account in that time
Good luck holding growth ETF's since Tesla was not a "great buy"

Bitcoin has also nearly tripled in the last 12 months, which is another staple in my investing portfolio. (White coat investors might be surprised that I have diversified investments including index funds, bonds, pension, etc)
Fundamentally it’s still not a great buy
 
Fundamentally it’s still not a great buy
Ok short it then.

Tire kickers with no position crack me up. The stock is up over 18% since your comment, finally breaking out from prior ATH's and in price discovery. I'm not trying to call tops, the market can be irrational for way longer than I can know. Obviously prudent to manage the position and manage downside risk by reducing leverage/exposure as we climb, as I've been doing.

Stick to index funds if you don't want to put in the 1000's of hours to understand macroeconomics, trends/sentiment, TA, the company fundamentals and growth trajectory, etc. None of my posts are financial advice. I'm just sharing what I have invested in. It has helped me triple my stock portfolio (and double my net worth) this year. NFA
 
Tsla is about 50% of my stock holdings but only about 5% of my net worth but I have a high conviction in the stock.

If they solve AI FSD or AI Optimus or Energy storage then they could be the most valuable company in the world. I drive FSD all the time and it is close. I see Approved FSD in selected cities in less than 2 yrs and even maybe 2025.

Anyone comparing Tesla to TM or any car company doesn't know what Tesla is which is completely understandable. If Tesla was a car maker, I would short the stock. It is not and this is why the shorts have lost untold amounts of money.
 
Screenshot 2024-12-16 at 1.36.32 PM.png

Tsla is about 50% of my stock holdings but only about 5% of my net worth but I have a high conviction in the stock.

If they solve AI FSD or AI Optimus or Energy storage then they could be the most valuable company in the world. I drive FSD all the time and it is close. I see Approved FSD in selected cities in less than 2 yrs and even maybe 2025.

Anyone comparing Tesla to TM or any car company doesn't know what Tesla is which is completely understandable. If Tesla was a car maker, I would short the stock. It is not and this is why the shorts have lost untold amounts of money.
Really liking the chart and momentum. I've got an RSI alert and hope to find an entry when it gets into oversold territory again.
 
I am waiting for a pullback to get into more stocks. Sold Puts but kept going up but at least I kept the premium

Timing is everything and I Sold Calls b/c I needed 20K for another venture. Of course call was exercised, lost 2/3 of my stocks and this was right before the election. Once there is a pullback, I will likely just buy and hold for atleast 10 years.
 
The recent Deepseek/AI shake up provided some opportunity. We can see how earnings are over next few weeks.

Market dropped today with the tariff fears but bounced back fairly quickly.
 
Tsla is about 50% of my stock holdings but only about 5% of my net worth but I have a high conviction in the stock.

If they solve AI FSD or AI Optimus or Energy storage then they could be the most valuable company in the world. I drive FSD all the time and it is close. I see Approved FSD in selected cities in less than 2 yrs and even maybe 2025.

Anyone comparing Tesla to TM or any car company doesn't know what Tesla is which is completely understandable. If Tesla was a car maker, I would short the stock. It is not and this is why the shorts have lost untold amounts of money.
Ultimately I think the combination of sales declines overseas and regulatory hurdles will continue to hobble TSLA and people will gradually realize that their first mover advantage has disappeared and their other bets aren't panning out. But hey, I'm just some guy, I could be wrong. My investments are in ETFs mostly, some of which are heavy on TSLA, so my being correct would be painful to my own wallet, but such is the price of diversification.

Other thoughts in general and unrelated to TSLA: I also think people are going to wake up to the issues with AI sooner rather than later, and realize that it can boost productivity in certain areas marginally to moderately, rather than replace workers entirely. DeepSeek will be, in the short term, a negative, but in the long-term a positive, as it'll result in increased AI efficiency being a goal, which will reduce the cost of AI services and may prove to be a net positive for the longevity of AI. This may initially hurt chipmakers, but should help with profitability of AI itself. Cheaper overhead may balance out to AI stocks not completely collapsing once the reality of LLM limitations becomes apparent, thankfully. Again, this'll hurt me a lot if I'm correct, but hey, that's the downside to diversifying in a market where 7 companies make up such a large portion of the market
 
Ultimately I think the combination of sales declines overseas and regulatory hurdles will continue to hobble TSLA and people will gradually realize that their first mover advantage has disappeared and their other bets aren't panning out. But hey, I'm just some guy, I could be wrong. My investments are in ETFs mostly, some of which are heavy on TSLA, so my being correct would be painful to my own wallet, but such is the price of diversification.

Other thoughts in general and unrelated to TSLA: I also think people are going to wake up to the issues with AI sooner rather than later, and realize that it can boost productivity in certain areas marginally to moderately, rather than replace workers entirely. DeepSeek will be, in the short term, a negative, but in the long-term a positive, as it'll result in increased AI efficiency being a goal, which will reduce the cost of AI services and may prove to be a net positive for the longevity of AI. This may initially hurt chipmakers, but should help with profitability of AI itself. Cheaper overhead may balance out to AI stocks not completely collapsing once the reality of LLM limitations becomes apparent, thankfully. Again, this'll hurt me a lot if I'm correct, but hey, that's the downside to diversifying in a market where 7 companies make up such a large portion of the market
Tesla is not a car company. If you view them as a car company, they are overvalued by 20x. If you view them as an AI, FSD, Optimus, software company then they are very undervalued. I believe it is the latter.
 
Tesla is not a car company. If you view them as a car company, they are overvalued by 20x. If you view them as an AI, FSD, Optimus, software company then they are very undervalued. I believe it is the latter.

You can't explain tesla to anyone who hasn't spent countless time studying the company and/or someone who has fsd. Im fairlly confident they will solve one of the big 3: FSD, optimus, energy by 2030 and betting it will be at least 2. Even one alone may push the company near 3 tril mc. Id like that a lot as it would expedite my FIRE goals. Peeps are lucky to be getting dips now also big money has gone hard into tesla so they know what's up or coming soon. Follow the big money.
 
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TSLA stock price one day after your post (March 4, 2024) was $198.73
We closed on Friday at $352.56, for a return of 77.4% in the ~8 months since
Thankfully I held shares and leaps (long dated call options) and was able to triple my account in that time
Good luck holding growth ETF's since Tesla was not a "great buy"

Bitcoin has also nearly tripled in the last 12 months, which is another staple in my investing portfolio. (White coat investors might be surprised that I have diversified investments including index funds, bonds, pension, etc)

HODL till 2030 both of those your going to be retiring sooner than you think. My bearish price targets are 200k btc and 800 tesla in 2029-2030.

Im sure you already know this though.
 
I will be DCA in to the mag 7 +/- Meta in the next1-3 months. I hope to build my Mag 7 fund to at least 1M by years end then just forget about it.

If the Mag 7 doesn't do well in the next 5-10 yrs, our economy will be in trouble anyhow.
 
I think we are starting to see Mag 7 diverging quite a bit.
AAPL has done well but seems quite expensive.
MSFT has been flat for a year.
NVDA will likely keep winning with demand for GPUs. Their customers are not stopping CAPEX.
TSLA is a can of worms. High future expectations, auto business has lost its shine, Elon is doing Elon things.
META has done very well and stands to benefit even if/when the AI craze settles down.
AMZN is probably same boat as META.
GOOGL does not get enough love from the market IMO, but they are also at risk of losing business from the ongoing AI services, market not excited about them having high maintenance CAPEX with their data centers, etc.
All great companies, but I think there will be shuffling of these into bigger winners and relative losers over next couple of years.
 
Tesla is not a car company. If you view them as a car company, they are overvalued by 20x. If you view them as an AI, FSD, Optimus, software company then they are very undervalued. I believe it is the latter.
You can't explain tesla to anyone who hasn't spent countless time studying the company and/or someone who has fsd. Im fairlly confident they will solve one of the big 3: FSD, optimus, energy by 2030 and betting it will be at least 2. Even one alone may push the company near 3 tril mc. Id like that a lot as it would expedite my FIRE goals. Peeps are lucky to be getting dips now also big money has gone hard into tesla so they know what's up or coming soon. Follow the big money.
HODL till 2030 both of those your going to be retiring sooner than you think. My bearish price targets are 200k btc and 800 tesla in 2029-2030.

Im sure you already know this though.
I'm just going to politely state that I disagree, that Tesla is, in fact, a car company, that FSD will not happen for at least two decades due to regulations getting in the way, and that robotics aren't going to pan out. Bitcoin will probably hit 200k at some point, but Tesla is going to have a price collapse as growth in their primary business implodes, subsidies related to their solar business dry up, and investors realize their other moves aren't panning out and likely won't pan out without another two decades of investment at the minimum

Bitcoin is going to decline substantially in the near term

Tesla is going to see a further halving of its price in the near term

Trump will usher in an era of stagflation

Those are my guesses. I've got investments across the board so I'm fine whatever direction things go, but I think we are going to hit those much overdue hard times soon
 
I'm just going to politely state that I disagree, that Tesla is, in fact, a car company, that FSD will not happen for at least two decades due to regulations getting in the way, and that robotics aren't going to pan out. Bitcoin will probably hit 200k at some point, but Tesla is going to have a price collapse as growth in their primary business implodes, subsidies related to their solar business dry up, and investors realize their other moves aren't panning out and likely won't pan out without another two decades of investment at the minimum

Bitcoin is going to decline substantially in the near term

Tesla is going to see a further halving of its price in the near term

Trump will usher in an era of stagflation

Those are my guesses. I've got investments across the board so I'm fine whatever direction things go, but I think we are going to hit those much overdue hard times soon
This is not out of the realm of possibility. No one knows what an individual stock will do. Tsla will fall in the near term, musk is pissing half the world off, but at the end of the day how Tsla performs will be related to how they execute.

This thread will be good to bring up in 1-2 years and we can see who ends up right.
 
I'm just going to politely state that I disagree, that Tesla is, in fact, a car company, that FSD will not happen for at least two decades due to regulations getting in the way, and that robotics aren't going to pan out. Bitcoin will probably hit 200k at some point, but Tesla is going to have a price collapse as growth in their primary business implodes, subsidies related to their solar business dry up, and investors realize their other moves aren't panning out and likely won't pan out without another two decades of investment at the minimum

Bitcoin is going to decline substantially in the near term

Tesla is going to see a further halving of its price in the near term

Trump will usher in an era of stagflation

Those are my guesses. I've got investments across the board so I'm fine whatever direction things go, but I think we are going to hit those much overdue hard times soon
It's happening right now.
 
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