Okay so I did some research and the interest rates depend on when the loans are disbursed.
@magicwalrusknight I don't know how NYUs loan package works, if you got the full amount before July 1st then yes it is capped for all loans taken out before July 1st at 6.31% for the plus loans. But PLUS loans disbursed AFTER July 1st are 7%. Most schools disburse loans at the start of the academic term, which for most schools is after July 1st, so you have to be careful with what NYU is telling you.
But for now, I'll use the interest rate of 6.31% for my calculations. Are you taking out any stafford loans? I know some people use up their stafford loans for undergrad so not everyone has access to those. But I'll do your calculations with optimism that you do indeed have the 40500 per year stafford loan available. I am also doing this assuming you can waive their health insurance.
NYU tends to hike their tuition 4-5%, which is pretty consistent for the past 4 years of tuition sheet data I looked at. So around 3k or so. This years tuition was also confirmed by one of the faculty members to me but that is word of mouth and might not be accurate.
2017-2018 $75820.16 + $10640 + stafford loan origination fee of $405 + PLUS loan origination fee of 4.2% on remaining balance after I chopped 40500 off $1962 =
$88422
2018-2019 $78852.8 + $8782 + $405(stafford) + $2012(plus) =
$89647
2019-2020 $82006.08 + $10444 + $405(stafford) + $2218(plus)=
$94668
2020-2021 $85286.24 + $8642 + $405(stafford) + $2281(plus)=
$96209
I know the tuition rate hikes look shocking, but NYU in 2011-2012 costed 60k. 2015-2016 it was 70k. Them jumping the tuition 10k every 4 years is the trend.
Another thing I found on NYUs tuition sheet that really annoyed me was their loan origination fee of 216$? Stafford is a 1% loan origination fee and PLUS are 4.2%, I don't know where they get 216$ from.
Okay so onto my interest calculations assuming you skip residency and work after 4 years.
40500 * 1.229(1.0531 ^ 4) 49774
40500 * 1.167 (1.0531 ^ 3) 47263
40500 * 1.109 (1.0531 ^ 2) 44914
40500 * 1.0531 (1.0531) 42650
Those are your 4 years of stafford loans. Now the Grad PLUS loans
47922 1.277(1.0631 ^ 4) 61197
49147 1.201(1.0631 ^ 3) 59026
54168. 1.13(1.0631 ^2) 61210
55709 1.0631(1.0631) 59224
So if we add all the numbers up you get a grand total of $425K which is within OPs original estimation of 400-430k.
The one thing to consider is that this is all has to happen.
1. interest rates lock in at 6.31%(although I really think its 7% when you get the disbursement, i'll ask some NYU dental friends about this) for the next four years (might go down but are expected to increase)
2. OP waives health insurance
3. There are no other additional hidden fees NYU might have. (their vast underestimation of origination fees have me squinting my eyes)
4. You still have your full amount of stafford available to you.
5. No previous loans.
6. Parents cover
everything else including food, bills, transportation, entertainment, girlfriend, clothes etc etc for the next 4 years.
7. You start working immediately after 4 years, which means you have to work outside of NY and begin to tackle those loans. Because when the loan capitalizes, thats when all hell breaks lose.
8. You study hard and do not, let me repeat do NOT fail out or repeat a year. Under no circumstances with numbers this big do you allow this to happen. 10 people in total didn't make it to year 3 clinic on time for whatever reason(repeating a year, dropping out, got kicked out or taking leave of absence) for this upcoming year. Leave of absence isn't as bad as the other 3, however interest is still building for the year.
If I made any mistakes please let me know, but I think its pretty accurate for your situation. Wish you the best of luck and I hope you do well. If you have money saved up that would make the amount you have to take out even less.