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BrownSwissCows said:
It just seems to me like it would be easier to fabricate some list down the road than to have names as we go.



Because they would be getting rid of someone we could trust. If we think they are trust worthy, we wouldn't lynch them. Uncertainty overall benefits wolves.

The whole point being my thoughts are moot if conversions are present. I guess people are assuming that they are?
Click to expand...
You're ignoring the part of Zensing's post that makes a great point on why it's better to keep the info to himself (and that has nothing to do with conversions). If STL says who he seered as villager and then they die within a day or two, what benefit does that serve the villagers? We won't lynch them that day and after that we have nothing. Revealing only if the person is in danger of being lynch gives us a lot more info to go on by reading the thread...
 
AlphaBeta<3 said:
What do you think about my reasoning? @Filly Bay and everyone else talking right now
Click to expand...
AlphaBeta<3 said:
Right now, I think it's jojo. The comment he posted saying "if you seered me, you can signal me" seems in genuine to me. The odds that someone picked him out of all these people, after only one technical day, is really low. But the comment makes it seem like he has nothing to hide. He has a better chance of making people believe he's not a wolf than having been seen. I also think if STL is a seer, and has been told not to reveal anyone unless they were a wolf, then he would know for sure that he was safe and that it was a good gamble to take.

Let me know if I'm doing this wrong

Lynch drjojo
Click to expand...

I don't know, I think there's a fairly good chance STL would seer someone like Rojo. Veterans don't like to lynch each other early on unless there's mod-provided info they are a wolf. I doubt he seered a noob since virgin wolves are more likely to make mistakes and be found out quickly. I'm not saying rojo's post couldn't be strategy but I think the odds of him being seered are higher than you think.
 
Filly Bay said:
You're ignoring the part of Zensing's post that makes a great point on why it's better to keep the info to himself (and that has nothing to do with conversions). If STL says who he seered as villager and then they die within a day or two, what benefit does that serve the villagers? We won't lynch them that day and after that we have nothing. Revealing only if the person is in danger of being lynch gives us a lot more info to go on by reading the thread...
Click to expand...

No, I'm not ignoring it. It comes down a philosophical difference. I see it as a wasted kill if wolves go killing people based on being affiliation seered (since they would obviously already know that) you and Zen don't see it that way.
 
BrownSwissCows said:
No, I'm not ignoring it. It comes down a philosophical difference. I see it as a wasted kill if wolves go killing people based on being affiliation seered (since they would obviously already know that) you and Zen don't see it that way.
Click to expand...
I'm still not seeing how it's a wasted kill. Another villager dead is one step closer to a wolf win. Affiliation seering won't show whether they have an ability or not.
 
I do like the thread being locked at night. Not much useful discussion does on at night in other games, anyways, except for OT stuff.
Filly Bay said:
I'm still not seeing how it's a wasted kill. Another villager dead is one step closer to a wolf win. Affiliation seering won't show whether they have an ability or not.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Even if Vanilla, one less villager brings the wolves closer to being the majority.
 
ResoluteMike said:
Lets what if a few scenarios:

1. The wolves get lucky and kill the protector. You information dump and then you die.

Ultimately, everything end up on the thread anyway. If it is just affiliation info, then there is no risk to the protector even if you find them.

2. The wolves do have a conversion. You get converted and give them everything. Villagers get nothing due to the PM restriction.

This possibility concerns me more. They may get a day or two extra utility out of you before you are finally lynched too.

3. We kill you now and play the game the way it was meant to be played.

th


Your information is useless if it doesn't get out and in pretty much all scenarios it helps the wolves regardless. Something to think about anyway.
Click to expand...
number 3 comes off very sketch, if you guys are going to lynch a villager, I would intervene and stop that.

Number one doesn't help wolves, as there would still be a few days where there are a few people cleared, decreases the pool of people that could be wolves.

@WildZoo where are you?
 
Just caught up. I have a royal hangover.

I find it a little sketchy that RM pushed for STL to out the seer results. I mean, I get it because it does (theoretically, if STL is legit) tell us who NOT to lynch, but in light of what everyone else is saying it doesn't make sense. Whether it be because there are conversions or because the wolves will kill the "confirmed" villagers to increase uncertainty, I think it's more beneficial to us if STL/WZ keeps the results quiet unless there is an urgent situation.
 
Filly Bay said:
I'm still not seeing how it's a wasted kill. Another villager dead is one step closer to a wolf win. Affiliation seering won't show whether they have an ability or not.
Click to expand...

Same. I think that what BSC is saying makes a lot more sense in a game with lots of roles and abilities. Like, if a seer in one of those games says "Oh X is a villager", that's not necessarily urgent for a wolf kill. Wolves in those games would be more focused on finding trackers, seers, people with kill avoidances, ask-a-mod abilities, etc., and wouldn't be so concerned with eliminating someone who we can now trust because someone seered them. The wolves might look into the seered person, but if that person has a relatively non-threatening ability, then i dont think they would be a high priority kill just because they were seered as villager. However, in a game where we probably don't have too many fancy roles, someone coming back as vanillager IS threatening to the wolves simply because of numbers. Killing a vanilla villager is just as good as killing any other vanilla villager because the wolves simply need to dwindle our numbers to win. And a villager who is now highly unlikely to be lynched is a good kill choice, since it's probably the only way that person can die now.
 
guisantes said:
Same. I think that what BSC is saying makes a lot more sense in a game with lots of roles and abilities. Like, if a seer in one of those games says "Oh X is a villager", that's not necessarily urgent for a wolf kill. Wolves in those games would be more focused on finding trackers, seers, people with kill avoidances, ask-a-mod abilities, etc., and wouldn't be so concerned with eliminating someone who we can now trust because someone seered them. The wolves might look into the seered person, but if that person has a relatively non-threatening ability, then i dont think they would be a high priority kill just because they were seered as villager. However, in a game where we probably don't have too many fancy roles, someone coming back as vanillager IS threatening to the wolves simply because of numbers. Killing a vanilla villager is just as good as killing any other vanilla villager because the wolves simply need to dwindle our numbers to win. And a villager who is now highly unlikely to be lynched is a good kill choice, since it's probably the only way that person can die now.
Click to expand...
I think we should try to figure out the number of wolves that there are based on past games. Can anyone try to estimate it based on the initial number of people who were playing? (28)
 
BrownSwissCows said:
It just seems to me like it would be easier to fabricate some list down the road than to have names as we go.



Because they would be getting rid of someone we could trust. If we think they are trust worthy, we wouldn't lynch them. Uncertainty overall benefits wolves.

The whole point being my thoughts are moot if conversions are present. I guess people are assuming that they are?
Click to expand...
Right now my opinion is that there are no conversions, but that is just based off what I believe would be involved in a basics game/what I would include in a basics game if I were to run one.

BrownSwissCows said:
No, I'm not ignoring it. It comes down a philosophical difference. I see it as a wasted kill if wolves go killing people based on being affiliation seered (since they would obviously already know that) you and Zen don't see it that way.
Click to expand...
Yes the wolves know who all the villagers are, but especially in a basics game, there is no benefit to keeping confirmed villagers around, so likely STL/WZ would seer someone, out it on thread, and then that night wolves would kill that person and villagers are in no better position then they were prior to the info being outed. If STL/WZ lives for a while and then posts a list of cleared villagers, the wolves can't kill all of them all at once, and villagers then have a smaller pool to chose potential wolves from. It's better for the villagers if that information is kept secret for as long as possible.
 
Filly Bay said:
You're ignoring the part of Zensing's post that makes a great point on why it's better to keep the info to himself (and that has nothing to do with conversions). If STL says who he seered as villager and then they die within a day or two, what benefit does that serve the villagers? We won't lynch them that day and after that we have nothing. Revealing only if the person is in danger of being lynch gives us a lot more info to go on by reading the thread...
Click to expand...
I'm actually kind of torn over this. If STL were to reveal who he seered, and then that villager is killed, we'd have a pool of 18 unknowns after 4 days. If STL doesn't reveal his results, and noone that he seered is killed, we'd have 14 unknowns and 4 seered villagers. But if there are conversions, it really complicates things for the villagers if we don't know when the conversion happened. I feel like that favors the wolves because us villagers won't get any benefit from the seering, since we won't be able to trust that the seering results are still accurate. Wolves could use that doubt to push the lynch towards a seered villager, then kill another of the seered villagers that night, and we're down to just 2 seered villagers and 14 unknowns. And if the wolves were lucky enough to convert a seered villager, then us villagers are even more screwed because we'll be trusting a wolf.

I guess basically I'm saying that I don't think seering is going to help much. Unless STL gets a wolf soon. So it doesn't really matter whether STL tells us results or not.
 
AlphaBeta<3 said:
I think we should try to figure out the number of wolves that there are based on past games. Can anyone try to estimate it based on the initial number of people who were playing? (28)
Click to expand...

I am by no means an expert (and haven't even played very many games myself), but I think there were probably 5 wolves at the most when the game started. Maybe 4 if they are going to get a conversion later on to make 5 total. I think LIS did some math at the very beginning of D1 regarding the number of wolves. I think he said 5-6 at the most.
 
Jilary said:
Yes the wolves know who all the villagers are, but especially in a basics game, there is no benefit to keeping confirmed villagers around, so likely STL/WZ would seer someone, out it on thread, and then that night wolves would kill that person and villagers are in no better position then they were prior to the info being outed. If STL/WZ lives for a while and then posts a list of cleared villagers, the wolves can't kill all of them all at once, and villagers then have a smaller pool to chose potential wolves from. It's better for the villagers if that information is kept secret for as long as possible.
Click to expand...

Yes. This is exactly what hungover guis was trying to say, put much more eloquently.
 
Also, I had a thought and I just wanted to know other people's opinions on it. Dy said that if you have a night action, and you do not meet your minimum post requirement, your night ability may be given to someone else to use for the night/you cant use your ability at all that night. Do we think this applies to wolf kills?
 
guisantes said:
Also, I had a thought and I just wanted to know other people's opinions on it. Dy said that if you have a night action, and you do not meet your minimum post requirement, your night ability may be given to someone else to use for the night/you cant use your ability at all that night. Do we think this applies to wolf kills?
Click to expand...
Depends, but not likely in this game. In some games only specific wolves have a killing ability, but usually it is a pack ability. So unless every single wolf didn't meet the post minimum, it won't have an effect on wolf kills.
 
Jilary said:
Depends, but not likely in this game. In some games only specific wolves have a killing ability, but usually it is a pack ability. So unless every single wolf didn't meet the post minimum, it won't have an effect on wolf kills.
Click to expand...

Makes sense. I was just thinking that if we end up having a no-kill night at some point, it might be beneficial to look at who did not meet post minimum. But I get what you're saying, and I think you're probably right
 
guisantes said:
Makes sense. I was just thinking that if we end up having a no-kill night at some point, it might be beneficial to look at who did not meet post minimum. But I get what you're saying, and I think you're probably right
Click to expand...
I would think a no-kill night would be likely to be associated with a conversion.
 
genny said:
I would think a no-kill night would be likely to be associated with a conversion.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that is another possibility! I personally think that there will probably be at least one conversion in this game, so I agree with genny that if there is a no-kill night, a conversion is more likely than one of the wolves losing their ability. But others were saying they didn't know if conversion is likely to be in a basics game or not, so it was just something to think about!
 
SummerTheLynx said:
number 3 comes off very sketch, if you guys are going to lynch a villager, I would intervene and stop that.

Number one doesn't help wolves, as there would still be a few days where there are a few people cleared, decreases the pool of people that could be wolves.

@WildZoo where are you?
Click to expand...
********
I haven't been told anything official. Waiting in the wings 🙂
********
 
LetItSnow said:
I don't think there's really any question why the wolves didn't kill STL. It's obviously one of two reasons:

1) They assumed there is a protector and the protector would (obviously, assuming they are paying attention) protect STL. Thus, wasted kill attempt.

-or-

2) STL is a wolf.

I'm not ready to lynch him, but I'm not even close to ready to commit to believing he's a villager seer. This could have been a long play from him all along. He's easily clever enough for it.
Click to expand...

Agreed on all counts. I didn't get to reply before the thread lock yesterday, but this whole thing didn't sit right with me.
 
Filly Bay said:
I don't know, I think there's a fairly good chance STL would seer someone like Rojo. Veterans don't like to lynch each other early on unless there's mod-provided info they are a wolf. I doubt he seered a noob since virgin wolves are more likely to make mistakes and be found out quickly. I'm not saying rojo's post couldn't be strategy but I think the odds of him being seered are higher than you think.
Click to expand...
This. I was specifically talking about/to STL, but I also know I'm often early seered, and in a no communication game, if the seer wants someone to be able to signal, I was being glib about it.
 
PrincessButterCup said:
Is something more dangerous than seer? Maybe a villager assasin, but those usually hurt the village more than wolves, and anyway, I would be really surprised to see a role like that here.
Click to expand...

Yeah, an affiliation seer would be the most "dangerous" to a wolf, but there are others that the wolves would also be eager to take out that are "dangerous" too. And if we have a protector, which I would be surprised it we didn't, it would be best for the protector to continue to protect the seer at least for now. So in this case, the protector is actually the most "dangerous" role to the wolves because they should not be able to get to the seer while the protector is around. Granted the protector can continuously protect the same person every night. So really we need to be careful to not "out" the protector if there is one out there, because their role is super important at this point.
 
vetmedhead said:
Two thoughts: they were either concerned that STL would be protected (and thus waste a wolf kill), or they were concerned someone would attempt to track STL and potentially see who he interacted with the night he was killed and thought it would be too likely for a potential tracker to see him interacting with a wolf.
Click to expand...

That typically isn't how tracking works. Usually tracking follows the one person you pick and tells you what that person did. If the person that was tracked ends up dead often times mods will say something along the lines of "you were tracking xyz when a dark figure approached and xyz fell dead to the ground, you don't know who the dark figure was."

Again, there can be variations on the above depending on the mod, but usually you have to track the wolf doing the kill and not the person that was killed, if that makes sense.
 
morninqlory said:
As far as I'm aware a player can be given a protector role and can select a person each(?) night cycle to protect so that if the wolves were to try to kill them it wouldn't work. I don't know if protectors can ever protect others during the day cycle preventing them from being lynched even if they are the lynch leader though. I also don't know if that role would be included in this particular game.
Click to expand...

I doubt there is protection from or avoidance of lynch in a basic game like this.
 
LetItSnow said:
I don't think there's really any question why the wolves didn't kill STL. It's obviously one of two reasons:

1) They assumed there is a protector and the protector would (obviously, assuming they are paying attention) protect STL. Thus, wasted kill attempt.

-or-

2) STL is a wolf.

I'm not ready to lynch him, but I'm not even close to ready to commit to believing he's a villager seer. This could have been a long play from him all along. He's easily clever enough for it.
Click to expand...

Agreed on all of the above. And some of the ways in which he acted in the last day cycle have me questioning if he is the villager seer to be honest. But I will hold off for now, unless others have thoughts or feelings that are similar.
 
I also think it is worth mentioning that I doubt there is more than one of each villager role... I think some of the basics of the following will be out there, but I highly doubt there will be more than one of each:

1. Seer
2. Protector
3. Tracker
4. Blocker

I can't think of any others that would fall under the "basics" category of anyone else thinks of one... feel free to mention it.
 
thedrjojo said:
I mean, on the one hand, yes, 36hrs is more than ample time, and yes, it mimics real life mafia/ww night time, but I think one is a lazy excuse and given the length of time and the no onus to post 10x, it won't be an insufferable amount of posts, and sometimes the discussion can be really good regarding lynch results and how to interpret them, which might be lost in 12hrs of waiting
Click to expand...

I feel like now that we actually have people taking/discussing how they should be in these games, that not locking the thread during a night cycle will end up getting us a few pages of posts. I do kind of enjoy the break of not having to catch up, even half a page gets a bit tiring. I think if people want to discuss the previous days lynch, they need to just bring it up when the thread opens up after night ends. Similar to how some people will have to reply all at once to everyone in big chunks (like I am doing now). We need to stop thinking things are irrelevant because they have already "passed" and just mention what we are thinking.
 
ResoluteMike said:
Lets what if a few scenarios:

1. The wolves get lucky and kill the protector. You information dump and then you die.

Ultimately, everything end up on the thread anyway. If it is just affiliation info, then there is no risk to the protector even if you find them.

2. The wolves do have a conversion. You get converted and give them everything. Villagers get nothing due to the PM restriction.

This possibility concerns me more. They may get a day or two extra utility out of you before you are finally lynched too.

3. We kill you now and play the game the way it was meant to be played.

th


Your information is useless if it doesn't get out and in pretty much all scenarios it helps the wolves regardless. Something to think about anyway.
Click to expand...

1. The wolves happen to kill the protector, STL gives us the information. That keeps a list of players we now know to not lynch. That is beneficial to villagers. Very beneficial

2. I'm not convinced that there is conversion in this game. Could be, could not be, but don't think the possibility that a seer may be converted which is about the dumbest move a wolf could make at this point would be reason to lynch our claimed affiliation seer.

3. Well this is stupid and makes me strongly consider lynching you.

Seer information is important and it doesn't help the wolves unless the seer yells out that so and so has a specific ability. The wolves already know who is villager vs. who isn't. The only thing that outing who has been seered will help the wolves with is who are better to target as kills overnight because those players aren't likely to be lynched during the day. However this also significantly helps villagers as well.
 
Well, STL it's been fun.

I've been turning this over in my head every since the beginning of the day cycle, and as much as I hate to do this (for myself) I think it's the best option for now. I don't want our protector bogged down with you, and I sure as hell don't want you guys to find him.

STL is FOS. I'm the villager seer. I seered him last night, and he is the wolf seer. It was a desperation move for him, as he knew that as soon as he claimed such a role the villager one would have to call him on it and thus expose themselves, but there doesn't seem to be any help for it now and I refuse to leave a wolf seer alive, even if that puts me at risk. I considered staying mum, but all that would do is essentially inactivate our protector/blocker and allow wolves more information, and leave me open to attack with no way to disseminate information I collect.

We take him out, it drastically reduces the wolves ability to find the protector and I can stay alive as long as possible.
 
WhtsThFrequency said:
Yeah. I kind of tried a little to hint that his reveal directed at genny was sketch, but people seemed relatively convinced that he was who he said he was.
Click to expand...

Or at least convinced enough that he would live for a few more cycles, and even that is too much imo for the wolf seer, especially if he's engaging our protector and leaving the entire village open to attack.
 
WhtsThFrequency said:
Yeah. I kind of tried a little to hint that his reveal directed at genny was sketch, but people seemed relatively convinced that he was who he said he was.
Click to expand...

I definitely had reservations based on his actions yesterday, but nothing concrete enough to push a lynch on him today, especially because I'm more often wrong than right about things like that.

Sucks you had to reveal like that, but I get it. Was probably for the best.
 
On another note,
DVMDream said:
That typically isn't how tracking works. Usually tracking follows the one person you pick and tells you what that person did. If the person that was tracked ends up dead often times mods will say something along the lines of "you were tracking xyz when a dark figure approached and xyz fell dead to the ground, you don't know who the dark figure was."

Again, there can be variations on the above depending on the mod, but usually you have to track the wolf doing the kill and not the person that was killed, if that makes sense.
Click to expand...
Is this how tracking usually works here? I've always thought of it as the tracker sees who visited their target (or, sometimes, who their target visits) but doesn't see what happened.
 
Zensing said:
On another note,

Is this how tracking usually works here? I've always thought of it as the tracker sees who visited their target (or, sometimes, who their target visits) but doesn't see what happened.
Click to expand...

The tracker usually gets results of what the person they were tracking was doing.
 
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