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@AlphaBeta<3 - I understand this is your first game, but posts from the dead should be limited to "I had fun, go wolves!" And you also shouldn't "like" any posts that contain strategy.
WildZoo
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There is of course no reason to feel guilty if you're wrong (unless you miss something obvious I guess), it happens, but the idea of lynching someone because they might be a conversion target in the future is just...very odd to me. 1)We dont even know if there are conversions 2) If there are, congrats, someone else gets converted instead
I know you stated you had suspicions anyway though, I just don't think that whether or not someone is likely to be converted in the future should be a factor.
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Lynch Deva
I don't have anything solid, but I'm having gut feelings. (I'll try and go find the discussion after the warnings went out and then kata was mod killed - I would like to read it over later).
Was a pile on vote on the STL lynch, missed a vote on Animal Midwife (maybe short day cycle again) , and then a vote for 1dog yesterday. Wasn't too late in the day cycle, but it was still a toss up between 1dog and AB at the time.
That coupled with a few of her posts about how it wouldn't be too hard for a wolf to steer away conversation and not being present to avoid getting lynched.
I don't have anything solid, but I'm having gut feelings. (I'll try and go find the discussion after the warnings went out and then kata was mod killed - I would like to read it over later).
Was a pile on vote on the STL lynch, missed a vote on Animal Midwife (maybe short day cycle again) , and then a vote for 1dog yesterday. Wasn't too late in the day cycle, but it was still a toss up between 1dog and AB at the time.
That coupled with a few of her posts about how it wouldn't be too hard for a wolf to steer away conversation and not being present to avoid getting lynched.
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When it's RNG, I'm pretty sure the odds of both AB and 1dog being wolves is the same as the odds of any other two players being wolves. I'm not a statistician though 😉 I do need to read back over yesterday to see if it seems more like a wolf-wolf lynch or a wolf-villager lynch, but for the moment I'm inclined to think 1dog isn't a wolf based on what I remember of how things went.
I take back that slap. You still good.
5am theories may be superior to 4am theories for me.
****
Really need to sleep but 1yr old usually wakes up about this time, so I'm hyper paranoid of him stirring
****
WildZoo
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Emotions are truly a dangerous thing in WW. Keep those feelings under wraps people!
Making this quick since I'm about to go take the CPH exam... but this counts as studying, right?
When I read your initial post, it sounded like it was outlining two, non-mutually exclusive probabilities
(1) 1dog is a wolf
This has a baseline probability of 3/20, given we are assuming 3 wolves left in 20 players.
(2) There is a player who is not 1dog but is a wolf
There are 19 possible non-1dog players. As above, we are assuming 3 wolves left in 20 players. So, there are either 2 wolves in the 19 (if 1dog is a wolf) or 3 wolves in the 19 (if 1dog is not a wolf). In either case, there is at least one wolf among the non-1dog players. Thus, the probability that there is a player who is a wolf (and said player is not 1dog) is 1
Basically, unless 1dog is an only wolf, p(1dog is a wolf) < p(there is a player not named 1dog that is a wolf).
So no feelings in WW means no feels votes, right? 😉
Oh, and yes, I did misread LOTF's post about Zen. I swear, I've played more than a few games guys!
I'm also tempted to lynch Deva on the basis that she popped right up with the "dang... I never would've guessed!" Thing that was a little hand wavey to me. I'll come back at lunchtime and figure out what to do from there.
Oh, and yes, I did misread LOTF's post about Zen. I swear, I've played more than a few games guys!
I'm also tempted to lynch Deva on the basis that she popped right up with the "dang... I never would've guessed!" Thing that was a little hand wavey to me. I'll come back at lunchtime and figure out what to do from there.
Now that I'm awake and less grumpy, @BeautifulBritishColumbia, I'm guessing you were actually discussing the probability that 1dog is a wolf vs. another, randomly-selected player is a wolf?
As said before, 1dog's wolf probability is 3/20. Another player's probability should be 3/20. Technically, the probability for another player (if I'm remembering my rules right) is
P(1dog is a wolf) AND P(randomly-selected non 1dog player is a wolf)
+P(1dog is not a wolf) AND P(randomly-selected non 1dog player is a wolf)
So, Ptotal = (3/20 * 2/19) + (17/20 * 3/19)
_____..= (6/380) + (51/380)
_____..= (57/380) or ~.15
P1dog = 3/20 = 0.15
So, in that case, P(1dog is a wolf) = P(randomly-selected, non-1dog player is a wolf)
As said before, 1dog's wolf probability is 3/20. Another player's probability should be 3/20. Technically, the probability for another player (if I'm remembering my rules right) is
P(1dog is a wolf) AND P(randomly-selected non 1dog player is a wolf)
+P(1dog is not a wolf) AND P(randomly-selected non 1dog player is a wolf)
So, Ptotal = (3/20 * 2/19) + (17/20 * 3/19)
_____..= (6/380) + (51/380)
_____..= (57/380) or ~.15
P1dog = 3/20 = 0.15
So, in that case, P(1dog is a wolf) = P(randomly-selected, non-1dog player is a wolf)
That's not approximate, that's equal. Sorry. I promise I can math.
Also, ignore the _____.. That's just me trying to get the equals signs to align. Since SDN will collapse lots of spaces into one space, I need to use real text that's then coded white to get alignment that isn't noticeable. I meant to code that as white text before posting.
Sees statistics on thread, I'm going back to bed.
I'll evaluate when I wake up again....
I'll evaluate when I wake up again....
[QUOTE="Jilary, post: 17888627, member: 63@AlphaBeta<3 - I understand this is your first game, but posts from the dead should be limited to "I had fun, go wolves!" And you also shouldn't "like" any posts that contain strategy.[/QUOTE]
********I created a flag of support for my team, am I allowed to post that?****** @Jilary
********I created a flag of support for my team, am I allowed to post that?****** @Jilary
Official Lynch Tally:
rocky 1 (WZ)
jilary 1 (mq)
deva 1 (teep)
3/19 votes
rocky 1 (WZ)
jilary 1 (mq)
deva 1 (teep)
3/19 votes
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WildZoo
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Nah nah, gut feels are not the same as emotion feels 😉
Jumping off of this, all the people making excuses for not voting for AB are a tad suspect to me. If you're a villager there's nothing to apologize for, you're not omniscient, and presumably you already stated your reasons during the lynch. Wolves more often feel the need to preemptively explain themselves when their voting record isn't favorable.
@AlphaBeta<3 , thank you for editing. I had already warned you elsewhere about behavior like this. As such, please don't post in the game thread at all.
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The above posts, to me, are a tad suspect. Doubt they're all wolves, but it does give each of them a mark in the potential wolfy column for me.
This one made me laugh, and seems different from the others, but I'm not entirely sure what to think about it. The fact that teep goes on to include deva's vote for 1dog in his reasons for lynching her today is interesting, since he voted for 1dog too...even if it was, as he claims, a mix up.
The likelihood of 1dog (or lotf) being a wolf is very small.....those 2 were the deciding factor in lynching a wolf. Although an idgaf vet might throw a fellow wolf under the bus early in the game..( sov cough cough), I don't see a noob doing it, and I don't see a vet convincing a noob to do it. This was not an obvious lynch so staying away was probably easiest.
THis sounds like trying too hard to justify being wrong. A wolf trying to deflect when it wasn't needed. Just the tone of it rubs me wrong.
Lynch deva
I have another thought.....three people didn't vote yesterday. I know sometimes as a wolf I am reluctant to vote and you wait and wait hoping a better non obvious choice comes up...it doesn't and you just act like life got in the way.
I am willing to be suspicious of the three missing voters...especially if they have been participating previously.
I would greatly appreciate it if someone could figure out who they are....I only have 3 minutes left until my flight.
Thanks.
I am willing to be suspicious of the three missing voters...especially if they have been participating previously.
I would greatly appreciate it if someone could figure out who they are....I only have 3 minutes left until my flight.
Thanks.
Last post....I just looked at who voted for the #2 vote getter yesterday. Although it is no sure thing...most wolf packs I have seen try too hard to save fellow Wolves early in the game so there could be someone in that group who is a wolf. Lo and behold...deva is there....makes me more comfortable with my vote. Not sure...just comfortable.
Gotta go....later.
Gotta go....later.
WildZoo
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WildZoo
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Fixing the final tally from yesterday just a bit, guis was shown as voting for herself instead of SOV voting for her
Missing votes were rocky, PBC, and fb
Missing votes were rocky, PBC, and fb
WildZoo
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Hold on, I'm blind, PBC is on there, she was the first vote for AB. Someone help me 
oooh i know!Hold on, I'm blind, PBC is on there, she was the first vote for AB. Someone help me
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I think the other missing vote was AB. Final answer @StartingoverVet - rocky, fb, AB.
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A deva vote is my second choice at the moment if nobody wants to join me in the rocky lynch again today. Need to read her posts again though.
I also keep forgetting that the wolves can't talk to each other during the day, so a wolf under duress isn't getting real time support. Something to keep in mind in case anybody else was forgetting.
I also keep forgetting that the wolves can't talk to each other during the day, so a wolf under duress isn't getting real time support. Something to keep in mind in case anybody else was forgetting.
I know this is just a silly thing but you know more variables than 19 players and 3 probable wolves. At least one of you should have thought of adding the variables of yourselves or the player you are talking to. This increases p (1dog is a wolf) but not significantly to p (some other player is a wolf)
Too busy to make a defense post. Tbh I really don't mind if y'all lunch me, I'vr been feeling mild guilt for my lack of participation--as in Probably shouldn't have signed up in the first place but I thought the slower pace of game would make it easier on my schedule, I was wrong. Anyway, good luck village [emoji256]
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I think you are making this more complicated than it actually is and not answering what you actually stated, but I don't have time to go thru it right now...
I feel like lynching the next person who mentions stats.....
General point: 1 dog is not more or less likely to be a wolf simply because AB was...
/end
General point: 1 dog is not more or less likely to be a wolf simply because AB was...
/end
If you don't want to play, why not have Dy mod kill you, instead of making villagers waste a lynch on you?
lynch rocky
I think missing the lynch vote is suspect. I wasn't around much and still managed to get a vote in.
Though I'm still up for lynching 1dog, if anyone else is interested. I still get feels from her, but I'm willing to look elsewhere for wolves if I'm the only one feeling it.
Just checking in cuz I have a long shift at the clinic today, I'll be able to get a lynch vote in after I read more thoroughly later. I can see the suspicion for both deva and rocky. Deva's comment about being so surprised about AB definitely struck me as suspicious, as a few other people mentioned.
I'm about to go back and look through posts for Filly and Rocky. Filly has seemed quite quiet, but I believe she stated her rotation was pretty time consuming.
I still have my mild feels for LIS, but nothing he has said in the last 2 days has been super suspicious to me, and I don't see my lynch vote going anywhere, so I will let it go for today.
I still have my mild feels for LIS, but nothing he has said in the last 2 days has been super suspicious to me, and I don't see my lynch vote going anywhere, so I will let it go for today.
*****************************************************************************************
Posting in stars to appease DVMD and because it really isn't game-relevant.
Whoops, messed up the number of live players in my calculations.
From your perspective, your p(villager) or p(wolf) is 1 or 0, depending on your stated alignment. From my perspective, your (or 1dog's) probability of being a wolf is 3/18 (number of live players - villager me). I don't see either of these probabilities being meaningful to a third person viewing the thread.
As for other factors (voting history, interpersonal interactions on the thread), if you're asking me to include those in my model...
I have limits to what I feel comfortable modeling.
To everyone else who didn't like this tangent - Sorry. I'll get off of it now.
And now, off to reread the thread and actually play the game. Thanks for talking statistics with me! 😀
*****************************************************************************************
Posting in stars to appease DVMD and because it really isn't game-relevant.
Whoops, messed up the number of live players in my calculations.
Sure, I know my alignment, but you don't. Personally, I automatically suspect any analyses that rely on the person providing it insisting they're a villager. When I post an analysis, I'm going to try and base it off of facts/previously-stated opinions that others can verify.I know this is just a silly thing but you know more variables than 19 players and 3 probable wolves. At least one of you should have thought of adding the variables of yourselves or the player you are talking to. This increases p (1dog is a wolf) but not significantly to p (some other player is a wolf)
From your perspective, your p(villager) or p(wolf) is 1 or 0, depending on your stated alignment. From my perspective, your (or 1dog's) probability of being a wolf is 3/18 (number of live players - villager me). I don't see either of these probabilities being meaningful to a third person viewing the thread.
As for other factors (voting history, interpersonal interactions on the thread), if you're asking me to include those in my model...
I have limits to what I feel comfortable modeling.
That's what I get for thinking/writing just before bed and just before a test. You're welcome to look through it if you want, but it's not really game-relevant. To be honest, I probably should have starred my initial statistics posts.
To everyone else who didn't like this tangent - Sorry. I'll get off of it now.
And now, off to reread the thread and actually play the game. Thanks for talking statistics with me! 😀
*****************************************************************************************
WildZoo
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Filly is dead and was our protector
FB was the protector and the wolves killed her last night....
Official Lynch Tally:
rocky 2 (WZ, genny)
jilary 1 (mq)
deva 2 (teep, SOV)
5/19 votes
rocky 2 (WZ, genny)
jilary 1 (mq)
deva 2 (teep, SOV)
5/19 votes
Reread p, it's not that I "don't want to play", I am trying my best to stay active (hence trying to avoid mod wrath since I feel like it'd be kinda crappy to purposely abandon, losing another villager number as well). But...how the heck am I "making" anyone do anything? [emoji848]
In re-reading Rocky's posts I don't know what to think. She has said nothing outright suspicious as far as I can tell, and her posts are all so normal they just blend in. If we are going back to the "wolves would not say anything crazy important to game play and accusing people" train of thought she would be a prime example.
On one hand, on D1 she did join in on the STL bandwagon, but did so before it was a done deal (prior to STL revealing).
On one hand, on D1 she did join in on the STL bandwagon, but did so before it was a done deal (prior to STL revealing).
I'm going to go back to lynch teep. Nothing in the past couple of day's posts has changed my feels, and there's been some weird posts in the past couple of days.
Particularly last lynch vote,
Particularly last lynch vote,
Normally, I wouldn't mind this, but your explanation today
makes it sound worse. In your initial lynch vote, you gave the most-commonly-cited reason for lynching AB, but your justification for checking (1dog? AB?) comments was from the most common reason of suspicion for 1dog. That's a really freaky chimera lynch justification, especially given it combines the most popular suspicions of others.
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Re: rocky lynch - I'm not seeing much wolfy behavior in them. Actually, I'm not seeing much at all because there are so few posts. I'm a little suspicious that he's posted so little and hasn't had a mod warning yet, so he's now on my sketchlist. I've got other people I'm more interested in lynching right now, though.
In regards to mod warnings, I got mine through PM so no one on the thread saw it. I don't know if Dy is only doing them on the thread now, but there is a chance that Rocky did get one
Re: Deva lynch - Today's post emotion seems a little off, but I'm still not sure what it's referring to (AB as wolf? FB the dead protector?) In other days, I haven't gotten many feels from her as wolf or villager, so I'm still neutral about her.
Thank you. That helps rocky's case with me a bit.
Official Lynch Tally:
rocky 2 (WZ, genny)
jilary 1 (mq)
deva 2 (teep, SOV)
teep 1 (zen)
6/19 votes
rocky 2 (WZ, genny)
jilary 1 (mq)
deva 2 (teep, SOV)
teep 1 (zen)
6/19 votes
