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[guisantes]

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Wait. Do you have someone to PM with? So jealous and a bit suspicious. More jealous and I don't even know if it's true yet.

Nope. I really did not think that that was how my post read when I wrote it, but if multiple people are interpreting it that way, let me explain. The post I quoted from 1dog was talking about how she had to ask noob questions on the thread because she didn't have anyone to PM with. I believed her, and figured that her honestly not having anyone to PM would mean she's not a wolf. I provided that as evidence for why I changed my vote. I don't have anyone to PM with either, and I never meant to imply that I did. I simply was saying that I believed that 1dog didn't. So no need for jealousy 🙂

 

[Teepster87]

I'm going to go with

Lynch 1dog

All this talk about PMs, and it made me relook through her posts. I don't know when it was that N1 happened, but her posts have seemed to change to me since the game began. Maybe she has gotten coaching, and perhaps even was told by other wolves to stop asking questions (wouldn't that be something).

 

[Filly Bay]

Within the last page or 2, I think it was Jil and someone else both pulled up other people's quotes and said they could be doing the thing I did the one time I was a wolf, where rather than say "I am a villager" I found ways to skirt around it.

I had this whole post explaining my game play style.... there was like a whole page talking about how I have a stupid obvious tell... now people are using that tell to figure out noob versus noob wolf. I'm kinda all over this thread in this topic. Where have you been?

My post saying that's what you did as a wolf in another was in NO way saying I think that means you're a villager now. It actually had little to do with you. It was just an example of what the other players could be doing now.

I don't take any merit in the fact you said you are a villager. You've had experience as a wolf once. There's nothing stopping by you from changing your game play and acting like you do as a villager to get by as a wolf in this game. And even though I mentioned it's normal for your posts to come off as wolfy that doesn't mean you're off my radar.

Just wanted to clear that up.

 

[Teepster87]

I've read through today's couple of pages a few times now. I can really see myself voting for either 1dog or AB. It's been a really poor day on my ability and effort. I'm going to have to go back and read alot more tomorrow (when I wake up later today).

 

[StartingoverVet]

In all honesty, I'm believing 1dog. Maybe I'm just gullible, but she seems to be genuine in her explanation. The way she wrote this just sounds like she honestly doesn't have anyone to PM with. She's definitely still on my radar. But I'm equally as suspicious of BBC, so I'm going to

unlynch 1dog lynch BBC

LOTF pointed this out. Talking about PM-ing in this game is very strange. Only wolves would be thinking of that (although their may be some sort mason like roles with PM-ing ability admittedly).

I think this is strong enough to go with.

unlynch WZ
lynch Guis

if this is addressed elsewhere, sorry, i don't have time to read everything this morning.

 

[1doggeek]

So I make sure I get a lynch vote in before I get busy at work
***lynch AB***
For the reasons I stated earlier I was suspicious. There just seems to be a jump in understanding. Their responses to some of the recent questions, including being told to stop asking questions or be subbed out, also rubbed me wrong. Could be true, could be made up.

 

[thedrjojo]

LOTF pointed this out. Talking about PM-ing in this game is very strange. Only wolves would be thinking of that (although their may be some sort mason like roles with PM-ing ability admittedly).

I think this is strong enough to go with.

unlynch WZ
lynch Guis

if this is addressed elsewhere, sorry, i don't have time to read everything this morning.

Lis made this point and changed to this lynch vote too.

Guis put up a defense and clarification and was how I initially interpreted the quote (that she's likely not a wolf because she can't talk with anyone, not that others can) but I have no strong feels on guis one way or the other otherwise.

 

[thedrjojo]

It looks like it's 1dog vs AB at this point, my gut is 1dog but if I change my vote that creates a tie. I'll keep checking

 

[WildZoo]

Nope. I really did not think that that was how my post read when I wrote it, but if multiple people are interpreting it that way, let me explain. The post I quoted from 1dog was talking about how she had to ask noob questions on the thread because she didn't have anyone to PM with. I believed her, and figured that her honestly not having anyone to PM would mean she's not a wolf. I provided that as evidence for why I changed my vote. I don't have anyone to PM with either, and I never meant to imply that I did. I simply was saying that I believed that 1dog didn't. So no need for jealousy 🙂

To be honest this is how I interpreted guis's post when I read it in the first place.

 

[Glammyre]

Finally caught up. Lots of overnight posting - @ResoluteMike, you were prophetic.

Voting does seem to be between 1dog and AB3. I'm going to stick to AB3 for now since I don't see a compelling reason to switch.

 

[dyachei]

Official lynch tally:
1dog 4 (BSC, genny, deva, teep)
ab 5 (PBC, dvmd, zen, mq, 1dog)
LIS 2 (BBC, jilary)
rocky 2 (wz, kdizzle)
BBC 2 (guis, rojo)
guis 2 (LIS, guis)

17/21 votes
6/21 minimums met

Changed my mind.

Edit: still going to sleep though.

Please don't edit any posts. I have said it before in the thread.

 

[dyachei]

I'll also happily share exactly what I said to AB. But maybe people shouldn't make so many assumptions about it?

 

[BrownSwissCows]

I guess with the Guis comment I don't really follow the logic. 1dog said she wanted to post questions as they came up. There doesn't seem to be any evidence of daytime PM abilities (unless Guis was implying something), so 1dog would have had to post her question whether wolf or villager if that's how 1dog wanted to play. What also doesn't fit with the Guis logic is the lack of questions after day 1.

 

[LadyOtheFarm]

I think I'm going to go with a vote to remove the quietest of the presented choices and Lynch AB <3

 

[dyachei]

Official lynch tally:
1dog 4 (BSC, genny, deva, teep)
ab 6 (PBC, dvmd, zen, mq, 1dog, lotf)
LIS 2 (BBC, jilary)
rocky 2 (wz, kdizzle)
BBC 2 (guis, rojo)
guis 2 (LIS, guis)

18/21 votes
6/21 minimums met

 

[WildZoo]

I guess with the Guis comment I don't really follow the logic. 1dog said she wanted to post questions as they came up. There doesn't seem to be any evidence of daytime PM abilities (unless Guis was implying something), so 1dog would have had to post her question whether wolf or villager if that's how 1dog wanted to play. What also doesn't fit with the Guis logic is the lack of questions after day 1.

I see what you are saying with the first part, but with the second, if you're going to call someone out specifically about posts, make sure you aren't misrepresenting. These posts from 1dog are after day 1

Is it likely that the wolves knew who the other wolves were before they could talk together N1? I've never been a wolf so I'm not sure how it works, like if they get a list of the other wolves or something?

So since tracker was killed (sadness!), how likely is it now that the wolves don't know who the protector is? I would assume they would want the protector gone first and are trying to buy more time to find out who it is, thoughts?

After this point most of her posts are spent in defense of herself, so whether you buy it or not there isn't much going on that would lead to asking questions.

 

[BrownSwissCows]

I see what you are saying with the first part, but with the second, if you're going to call someone out specifically about posts, make sure you aren't misrepresenting. These posts from 1dog are after day 1



After this point most of her posts are spent in defense of herself, so whether you buy it or not there isn't much going on that would lead to asking questions.

Fair enough on the first one you quoted, I missed that one.

The second one I had actually counted as strategy. It stuck me as less basic mechanics of the game and as more of an attempt to start discussion.

The number of questions wasn't the basis for my lynch vote. Guis had raised an interesting point and I wanted check out the logic and see if I wanted to change my vote.

 

[dyachei]

9 minutes for any last minute changes

 

[kaydubs]

Wowwww brain still on fire. 1dog seems mostly noobish but my radar could be broken on account of firebrain affliction. I'm sticking with my vote but I did a lot of skimmage cause my brain can't handle more than eye dropper sized bits of work.

 

[dyachei]

lynch closed, results pending

 

[dyachei]

Alphabeta was lynched. She was a

Spoiler: Flip is here

Wolf

20 players left

night deadline is 10:00 pm Wednesday 6/29.
1. DVMD
2. LotF
3. vetmedhead - tracker
4. kaydubs
5. Teep
6. Jilary
7. Animal Midwife - villager
8. Filly Bay
9. Katashark - villager
10. Rocky
11. Hayley - villager
12. SandstormDVM - villager
13. PrincessButterCup
14. STL - wolf seer
15. Zensing
16. LeTitsNow
17. morninqlory
18. Guis
19. ResoluteMike/SOV
20. BBC
21. genny
22. BSC
23. rojo
24. WTF - village seer
25. Diva
26. 1dogg
27. sheltermed/WZ
28. AlphaBeta<3 - wolf

For your knowledge this is what I told her, "alphabeta - you need to put effort in to learn. read previous games or something. otherwise i will sub you out."

So for those that quickly jumped on the "that's not fair" wagon, I would appreciate if you would withhold judgement when you don't know the whole story.

 

[dyachei]

You find filly bay ripped to shreds. She was a

Spoiler: Flip is here

Protector

19 players left

day deadline is 10:00 pm Thursday 6/30.
1. DVMD
2. LotF
3. vetmedhead - tracker
4. kaydubs
5. Teep
6. Jilary
7. Animal Midwife - villager
8. Filly Bay - Protector
9. Katashark - villager
10. Rocky
11. Hayley - villager
12. SandstormDVM - villager
13. PrincessButterCup
14. STL - wolf seer
15. Zensing
16. LeTitsNow
17. morninqlory
18. Guis
19. ResoluteMike/SOV
20. BBC
21. genny
22. BSC
23. rojo
24. WTF - village seer
25. Diva
26. 1dogg
27. sheltermed/WZ
28. AlphaBeta<3 - wolf

 

[WildZoo]

Guess that answers that question.

I think I will stick with my lynch rocky vote for now

 

[dyachei]

Official Lynch Tally:
rocky 1 (WZ)

1/19 votes

 

[Skimble]

Good job on those of you that picked up on AB's inconsistencies. I admit I just thought she was nooby and kind of mentally put her on ignore, which was foolish on my part in hindsight.

The wolves really got lucky this game. It's funny, in all the basic games I've played, the wolves have gotten the roles villagers super quick and mostly due to dumb luck!

 

[kaydubs]

Good job on those of you that picked up on AB's inconsistencies. I admit I just thought she was nooby and kind of mentally put her on ignore, which was foolish on my part in hindsight.

I concur. I'll be re-reading the thread and meditating on my lynch vote.

 

[TheGirlWithTheFernTattoo]

Are you saying you think there's been a conversion already, or that you're lynching him preemptively because you think he might be converted later?

My lynch vote was due to my suspicions, but since I believe he would be a lynch target (not already converted, but in the future) I do not feel incredibly guilty if I am wrong

 

[TheGirlWithTheFernTattoo]

My lynch vote was due to my suspicions, but since I believe he would be a lynch target (not already converted, but in the future) I do not feel incredibly guilty if I am wrong

I meant convert target, not lynch target. Didn't proof-read my post...

 

[Devastating]

Dang, I never woulda thunk...(well, maybe not NEVER, but I was certainly willing to chalk yet another one up to noobiness rather than wolfiness there...wow.)

 

[TheGirlWithTheFernTattoo]

I'm curious to see if AB will have a similar playing style when not a wolf. Since that playing style I saw here is what kept me from voting for them in lynch.

 

[LetItSnow]

My lynch vote was due to my suspicions, but since I believe he would be a lynch target (not already converted, but in the future) I do not feel incredibly guilty if I am wrong

NOW you're talking.

You shouldn't feel guilty about being wrong. Feeling guilty is something a wolf will prey on. A good wolf senses guilt like the proverbial dog sensing fear and will go to town on you until you back down and switch your vote.

(I'm still not a wolf, though. And nobody in their right mind would convert me given the level of suspicion I've been under. There are way better choices.)

 

[TheGirlWithTheFernTattoo]

With this lynch result, I feel like it is less likely 1dog is also a wolf. The odds that 2 newbies would be wolves out of our 4-5 wolves seem small. If that is how it was RNG'd, I think Dy may have manually changed it since having new brand new wolves might put them at an unfair advantage.

 

[LetItSnow]

With this lynch result, I feel like it is less likely 1dog is also a wolf. The odds that 2 newbies would be wolves out of our 4-5 wolves seem small. If that is how it was RNG'd, I think Dy may have manually changed it since having new brand new wolves might put them at an unfair advantage.

Ugh. I am not at all found of the "odds that 2 newbies are wolf" kind of logic. Dice are what dice are. Dy rolled them and I doubt she changed them unless it literally came up 100% newbs in the wolf pack or something.

There used to be a player that always tried to insist that it was more likely the wolf were spread out over groups (in a game with groups). Same flawed logic.

Look at the flip side (which is what you're suggesting) - you think Dy intentionally 'stacked' the wolves with 4 'veterans' and 1 'newb' and left the villagers with a disproportionate number? That doesn't make much sense. And honestly, from a game-planning perspective, veterans tend to get investigated quickly. So in a game where they don't have some way to duck investigation, stacking your wolf group with veterans is a good way to risk them getting identified quickly by a villager seer.

I think that Dy probably rolled the dice and ran with it unless it was just horrifically one-sided.

 

[LetItSnow]

Ugh. I am not at all found

fond*

 

[Devastating]

With this lynch result, I feel like it is less likely 1dog is also a wolf. The odds that 2 newbies would be wolves out of our 4-5 wolves seem small. If that is how it was RNG'd, I think Dy may have manually changed it since having new brand new wolves might put them at an unfair advantage.

I'm leaning the same way too--Not about that Dy manually changed anything, just seems statistically unlikely that out of 2 players who were debatably sketchy-or-nooby that both would be wolf. Could def be wrong of course, but with the results that AB was wolf I feel a bit more confident that 1dog is likely being sincere...if this post makes sense.

 

[TheGirlWithTheFernTattoo]

Ugh. I am not at all found of the "odds that 2 newbies are wolf" kind of logic. Dice are what dice are. Dy rolled them and I doubt she changed them unless it literally came up 100% newbs in the wolf pack or something.

There used to be a player that always tried to insist that it was more likely the wolf were spread out over groups (in a game with groups). Same flawed logic.

Look at the flip side (which is what you're suggesting) - you think Dy intentionally 'stacked' the wolves with 4 'veterans' and 1 'newb' and left the villagers with a disproportionate number? That doesn't make much sense. And honestly, from a game-planning perspective, veterans tend to get investigated quickly. So in a game where they don't have some way to duck investigation, stacking your wolf group with veterans is a good way to risk them getting identified quickly by a villager seer.

I think that Dy probably rolled the dice and ran with it unless it was just horrifically one-sided.

I think it cannot be looked upon as a law, but I think it is still valuable. The probability of 1dog and AB3 (the 2 newest players) both being wolves is lower than the probability of AB3 and some other player in the game being a wolf. Could 1dog be a wolf? Yes. Is it more likely that it is someone else? Yes.

I get what you mean about Dy stacking it, and I agree with what you said there. Though I'm pretty sure we have a different classification for "veteran" 😉

I agree that it cannot be information held in high regard, but I think it is as least worth keeping in mind. If 1dog makes any more sketchy comments I am happy to lynch them

 

[LetItSnow]

I think it cannot be looked upon as a law, but I think it is still valuable. The probability of 1dog and AB3 (the 2 newest players) both being wolves is lower than the probability of AB3 and some other player in the game being a wolf. Could 1dog be a wolf? Yes. Is it more likely that it is someone else? Yes.

I get what you mean about Dy stacking it, and I agree with what you said there. Though I'm pretty sure we have a different classification for "veteran" 😉

I agree that it cannot be information held in high regard, but I think it is as least worth keeping in mind. If 1dog makes any more sketchy comments I am happy to lynch them

Ok, but then what are you suggesting? That because AB was a wolf ............ the other 4 wolves (I'm assuming 5, just for the sake of argument) are all going to be "more veteran" just because Dyachei wouldn't want it any other way?

I just don't think that makes sense.

I'm not trying to steer this toward 1dog, I just think it's SUPER dangerous logic because it more generally steers us away from all newer players, not just 1dog. I already said yesterday I was leaning away from 1dog, so that's not my point.

 

[LetItSnow]

Ok, but then what are you suggesting? That because AB was a wolf ............ the other 4 wolves (I'm assuming 5, just for the sake of argument) are all going to be "more veteran" just because Dyachei wouldn't want it any other way?

I just don't think that makes sense.

I'm not trying to steer this toward 1dog, I just think it's SUPER dangerous logic because it more generally steers us away from all newer players, not just 1dog. I already said yesterday I was leaning away from 1dog, so that's not my point.

Mathing is hard - should have read "the other 3 wolves". Forgot that 1+1 = 2. Sigh.

 

[Glammyre]

I think it cannot be looked upon as a law, but I think it is still valuable. The probability of 1dog and AB3 (the 2 newest players) both being wolves is lower than the probability of AB3 and some other player in the game being a wolf. Could 1dog be a wolf? Yes. Is it more likely that it is someone else? Yes.

I get what you mean about Dy stacking it, and I agree with what you said there. Though I'm pretty sure we have a different classification for "veteran" 😉

I agree that it cannot be information held in high regard, but I think it is as least worth keeping in mind. If 1dog makes any more sketchy comments I am happy to lynch them

BBC, do not use scenarios and the word "likely" with a statistician. I think my statistical explanation of why p(1dog = wolf) < p(someone else is a wolf) is a meaningless statement in this game would muddy the waters, so I'll stick with LIS's explanation.

Basically, this lynch by no means clears 1dog. I don't think it implicates them beyond what was discussed yesterday, but neither am I going to put 1dog on my probable villager lynch because AB3 came up wolf.

For what it's worth, a team of mostly noobs/barely experienced and 1 experienced wolf can go far, especially if conversions are allowed (re: Hunger Games redux with kaydubs and dyachei)

 

[LetItSnow]

I think it cannot be looked upon as a law, but I think it is still valuable. The probability of 1dog and AB3 (the 2 newest players) both being wolves is lower than the probability of AB3 and some other player in the game being a wolf. Could 1dog be a wolf? Yes. Is it more likely that it is someone else? Yes.

I get what you mean about Dy stacking it, and I agree with what you said there. Though I'm pretty sure we have a different classification for "veteran" 😉

I agree that it cannot be information held in high regard, but I think it is as least worth keeping in mind. If 1dog makes any more sketchy comments I am happy to lynch them

And, I'm not trying to rip into your thinking. I think what you're posting is useful. I just think it runs the risk of people saying "hmmm.... so-n-so... nope, can't be another n00b.... how about so-n-so-the-second... nope, can't be another n00b...." etc.

I honestly don't really think much about 'veteran' vs 'n00b' - at least, not as much as other people make of it. There are so many newer players nowadays it is tough for me to remember which ones are playing their first game vs their fifth, so I tend not to think about that as much. I mean, I obviously know the difference between AB and Rojo, but.... most everyone else just falls in the middle.

 

[SummerTheLynx]

BBC, do not use scenarios and the word "likely" with a statistician. I think my statistical explanation of why p(1dog = wolf) < p(someone else is a wolf) is a meaningless statement in this game would muddy the waters, so I'll stick with LIS's explanation.

Basically, this lynch by no means clears 1dog. I don't think it implicates them beyond what was discussed yesterday, but neither am I going to put 1dog on my probable villager lynch because AB3 came up wolf.

For what it's worth, a team of mostly noobs/barely experienced and 1 experienced wolf can go far, especially if conversions are allowed (re: Hunger Games redux with kaydubs and dyachei)

******************
But would you like to debate it with a bioinformatics person? 😉
******************

 

[morninqlory]

Could someone who isn't on mobile show me where AB has made posts that seem like she has a good grasp of the game? I apparently missed those! (No offense)

This post from yesterday gave me feels and now that AB3 came up wolf today I will ***lynch Jilary***


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile

 

[Teepster87]

I totally F'd up last night. I'm glad the Lynch turned out the way it did, but I'm pretty sure I voted for 1dog, but with reasoning for lynching AB.

It was a stupid move, glad that I didn't tip the scales away from a wolf, and I will be move careful when trying to make sense at 4 in the morning.

 

[TheGirlWithTheFernTattoo]

Ok, but then what are you suggesting? That because AB was a wolf ............ the other 4 wolves (I'm assuming 5, just for the sake of argument) are all going to be "more veteran" just because Dyachei wouldn't want it any other way?

I just don't think that makes sense.

I'm not trying to steer this toward 1dog, I just think it's SUPER dangerous logic because it more generally steers us away from all newer players, not just 1dog. I already said yesterday I was leaning away from 1dog, so that's not my point.

No, I conceded that what you said about Dyachi made sense and I agreed with that. My comment there was just regarding the odds of the two newest players being RNG wolves versus the odds of one of the newest players and anyone else in the game.

I do agree it could be a dangerous way of thinking if people immediately give everyone a pass who is a new player. I was already inclined to believe 1dog, which is why I found this reassuring.

 

[TheGirlWithTheFernTattoo]

BBC, do not use scenarios and the word "likely" with a statistician. I think my statistical explanation of why p(1dog = wolf) < p(someone else is a wolf) is a meaningless statement in this game would muddy the waters, so I'll stick with LIS's explanation.

Basically, this lynch by no means clears 1dog. I don't think it implicates them beyond what was discussed yesterday, but neither am I going to put 1dog on my probable villager lynch because AB3 came up wolf.

For what it's worth, a team of mostly noobs/barely experienced and 1 experienced wolf can go far, especially if conversions are allowed (re: Hunger Games redux with kaydubs and dyachei)

I have yet to take a formal stats course in my life, please forgive my lack of precision on my wording haha.

If you don't mind, could you post the statistical explanation? Even if it won't help the game I would like to see it just for my personal education. Based on what you and LIS have said I think I may be missing a concept on how the whole stats thing works

 

[kaydubs]

I totally F'd up last night. I'm glad the Lynch turned out the way it did, but I'm pretty sure I voted for 1dog, but with reasoning for lynching AB.

It was a stupid move, glad that I didn't tip the scales away from a wolf, and I will be move careful when trying to make sense at 4 in the morning.

still trying to make myself read the thread....migraine hates me so much.....

 

[AlphaBeta<3]

Good job on those of you that picked up on AB's inconsistencies. I admit I just thought she was nooby and kind of mentally put her on ignore, which was foolish on my part in hindsight.

The wolves really got lucky this game. It's funny, in all the basic games I've played, the wolves have gotten the roles villagers super quick and mostly due to dumb luck!

****strategy because snakes.****

 

[Skimble]

****Strategy.******

This is strategy IMHO and she probably be removed since you are now dead.

 

[thedrjojo]

Just finished operating all night... Insert strategy here. Hooray for killing ab

 

[Skimble]

This post from yesterday gave me feels and now that AB3 came up wolf today I will ***lynch Jilary***


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile

How is asking people to point out suspicious posts wolfy? People ask those kinds of questions daily in every WW game. Some of you saw things I didn't and I was/am on my phone so it's a pain to go back through 25pgs of the thread and re-read. Personally I think a wolf is less likely to ask for the specifics to be pointed out about another wolf, but would instead softly say they don't see it that way, or say they understand but they are more suspicious of X, just stay out of it, or toss a vote that way so when that person is lynched, they look good.