Back to basics WW again

[HowConfusing]

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There was also discussion that he may only be able to kill for a specific interval, for instance, every other day.

 

[HowConfusing]

Leaving my vote on jilary for same reasons as listed from yesterday. Not sure what to think of DVMD's death, if it's supposed to be misleading since she was the only vote for abnerrs or if it was just an attempt to eliminate more experienced players? I agree with the idea that the two players listed as blocked by zensing were probably the actual players she blocked as a werewolf. I need to go back and take another look at the votes when I get back to my computer.

 

[Skimble]

We talked about the possibility of him being blocked that night

It was stated that he was neutral so Functionally I guess he was a lone wolf

Well I have a different theory, but ya know, my ideas are crazy.

There was also discussion that he may only be able to kill for a specific interval, for instance, every other day.

Hence why I posted the info from MU, it specifically says the serial killer can kill every night, so I suspect that he could and thought you guys might like that info. It also says the serial killer can have different win conditions, and well... I guess a part of me is super glad he never got the chance to meet whatever his win condition was, especially since he's caused me 4 days of headache and now no way of saving myself.

 

[Doctor-S]

I'm going to have to read what is the meaning, and the role, or whatever else it means, when a player is called a neutral "serial killer." I'd like to try to figure out what this term means so I become a better player. Geez, WW is confusing.

I thought a neutral serial killer doesn't have to take sides, and can kill anyone they want to in a day/night cycle. Someone talked about another "basic" game that some of you have already played in - so I guess that may have confused me.

 

[Skimble]

I'm going to have to read what is the meaning, and the role, or whatever else it means, when a player is called a neutral "serial killer." I'd like to try to figure out what this term means so I become a better player. Geez, WW is confusing.

I thought a neutral serial killer doesn't have to take sides, and can kill anyone they want to in a day/night cycle. Someone talked about another "basic" game that some of you have already played in - so I guess that may have confused me.

Just my opinion, but in this case, STL was "neutral" in that he wasn't wolf or village, he was a faction of him own with his own won condition. His only concern was his own survival. He could kill villagers or wolves, but he didn't know who they were anymore than the villagers. He could kill every night, not during the day, he may have had another "ability" but my guess is that he didn't. The way his role is set up sounds more like a lone wolf that is sometimes seen in SDN games.

 

[mmmdreamerz]

Getting caught up now but won't be able to finish until later...

DVMD seemed pretty much how she has in the other games I've played with her when she was a villager, so that part doesn't really surprise me. What does surprise me is that the wolves chose her I guess? I just feel like a couple other players that I have felt are pretty solidly villager would have taken precedence for the wolfs to kill...idk and it doesn't really feel like a lynch that was supposed to throw us off either? Idk. Maybe they thought she had an ability.

Seems like most are still feeling a Jillary lynch at this point...

 

[Animal Midwife]

Okay. I guess I'll start off with my top list of suspicions.

Jil - as I said before, STL's death seems like a kill done to look like a very obvious framing



Cyndia - minors feels due to low post number

Okay. So I'm going to assume (for better or worse) that this post from Zensing is what the wolves thought N1; namely, that STL was a role seer who got an N0 peek, seered Jilary, and was not going to let the topic go. This explains nicely why he died so early despite there being so much suspicion on him, and completely ****s up analysis of D2 lynches. If the wolves assumed STL would be shortly outed as a seer and that he was so adamant on Jilary, they would have thought her dead meat. So don't assume early voting for Jil really means anything for villager status, and honestly, in the line-up between raf and Jil I'm inclined to look at the people who voted Jil with significant suspicion.

If people want links to the previous lynch tallies:
Day one
Day two
Day three

I want to hear more from these people, somewhat in this order:

@Animal Midwife - she was a mid-range Jil voter D2, stuck with Jil quickly d3. Still hasn't contributed much, had that post early where she said she wanted to learn to play better but then just used the excuse for following STL as a voting crutch.
@SARdoghandler - Lots of fluff posts, only really suspicious of wolves when the wagon is going solidly on them already. There are some things that make me lean a little village, some wolf, just want to hear suspicions.
@finnickthedog - still think ally is sketchy? any new thoughts? I know I have to drag them out of you kicking and screaming.
@awesomenessity - Also lots of fluff and not a lot of substance. Gimme your reads please.
​

I think it's worth keeping an eye on LIS... while he has been very good about posting suspicions and whatnot, I don't think he has actually really pushed a lynch on a wolf yet before they picked up speed on their own.

And a couple others, but back to work I goooo.

Okay. I'm caught up and here now. What would you like to know?

 

[Trilt]

Okay. I guess I'll start off with my top list of suspicions.

Jil - as I said before, STL's death seems like a kill done to look like a very obvious framing



Cyndia - minors feels due to low post number


Okay. I'm caught up and here now. What would you like to know?

Just a quick post in the morning, I'll be back during lunch, but those were kinda lame. So you're suspicious of Jil because STL died so it looks like a framing?

Give me more than "minor feels" for Cyndia.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Just a quick post in the morning, I'll be back during lunch, but those were kinda lame. So you're suspicious of Jil because STL died so it looks like a framing?

Give me more than "minor feels" for Cyndia.

No, I'm suspicious of Jil because STL was a big candidate for her lynch and he suddenly turns up dead.

As for Cyndia, it just seems like she posts less content than I do. Even in the Ghostbusters game, she was more interactive.

 

[allyphoe]

My speculation on the DVMD kill: she was the only player who wasn't voting to lynch either Zen or Jil. I think that this was intended to provide a distraction that might take a little heat off of Jil (assuming she's a wolf).

 

[Cyndia]

I don't so much think she would have picked fake targets like that, as that she could have said she blocked one of them when she really didn't, because one of them is a wolf. This would play into the earlier theory that she blocked STL N1. He was dead by the time she revealed so he couldn't have refuted it. Anyway like I said, I'm not putting too much thought into it at the moment but I just don't want to put either of them as 100% cleared when there is no way for us to confirm that they were actually blocked.

See I don't think they could have blocked STL night 1, because if the wolves were thinking he got ahold of info/seered Jilary, it would have had to have been night 1. Since didn't he start targeting her day 2? I'm getting a little mixed up on days/nights since they're so long, but I'm pretty sure that's how it happened, so then I highly doubt they blocked STL night 1 and still thought he had a method of gaining information and took him out on night 2.

But I agree, can't 100% clear them by any means, I just think they're both more likely villager than I did before.

 

[Cyndia]

As for Cyndia, it just seems like she posts less content than I do. Even in the Ghostbusters game, she was more interactive.

Like I said - I was MIA because of NAVC but I've been posting a lot more since I got back. Is there anything in particular that I'm saying that's making you suspicious, or literally just the fact I wasn't posting as much?

 

[allyphoe]

When I compare Jil's list on post #877 to Nessy's on #1325, the only players they truly disagree on are Confusing (Jill says village, Nessy says wolf) and Jil (village / wolf again). Their lists are identical for 6 players (7 if we assume Nessy would put herself on the village list 😉 ), and off-by-one (neutral-to-wolf or neutral-to-village) for 7. Then 3 players on whom Nessy offered no opinion.

So either there's broad consensus as to who's generally suspicious vs unsuspicious (IMHO unlikely), or Nessy purely coincidentally happens to have very similar reads on most players as Jil does but doesn't consider this to be a village-leaning factor for Jil, or Nessy's reads are subconsciously being affected by Jil's list (because Nessy is also a wolf).

Assuming Jil flips wolf, I think I'd like to hear more from Nessy on the next day cycle.

 

[allyphoe]

See I don't think they could have blocked STL night 1, because if the wolves were thinking he got ahold of info/seered Jilary, it would have had to have been night 1. Since didn't he start targeting her day 2? I'm getting a little mixed up on days/nights since they're so long, but I'm pretty sure that's how it happened, so then I highly doubt they blocked STL night 1 and still thought he had a method of gaining information and took him out on night 2.

STL hopped on Jil between the 7pm Saturday and 7:30pm Saturday lynch tallies, where Saturday was Day 1. Jil has already explained that she thought STL, as cop / seer, had a Night 0 seer opportunity. They could easily have blocked him Night 1 (after the cdo lynch).

 

[Animal Midwife]

Like I said - I was MIA because of NAVC but I've been posting a lot more since I got back. Is there anything in particular that I'm saying that's making you suspicious, or literally just the fact I wasn't posting as much?

Just the low posting. That's why I only have minor feels.

 

[Cyndia]

STL hopped on Jil between the 7pm Saturday and 7:30pm Saturday lynch tallies, where Saturday was Day 1. Jil has already explained that she thought STL, as cop / seer, had a Night 0 seer opportunity. They could easily have blocked him Night 1 (after the cdo lynch).

Ohh darn, I didn't remember her saying that. Okay nevermind that screws up my reasoning.

 

[Coopah]

Hey guys I'm at my Florida interview for today and next, I might be a little less active. I'll try to stay as active as I can.

 

[WildZoo]

See I don't think they could have blocked STL night 1, because if the wolves were thinking he got ahold of info/seered Jilary, it would have had to have been night 1. Since didn't he start targeting her day 2? I'm getting a little mixed up on days/nights since they're so long, but I'm pretty sure that's how it happened, so then I highly doubt they blocked STL night 1 and still thought he had a method of gaining information and took him out on night 2.

But I agree, can't 100% clear them by any means, I just think they're both more likely villager than I did before.

Ally already said it, but yeah his Jil suspicions started day 1. That post from Zen about her seer theory was predicated on him having a night 0 peek.

Jil has already explained that she thought STL, as cop / seer, had a Night 0 seer opportunity.

Zen's theory, not Jil's.

I just had a thought that if the wolves really thought STL was a seer, it may have made more sense for them to continue to block him, at least until Jilary died, rather than kill him and confirm his seer status, which would basically be the nail in Jil's coffin. Not sure if they would have thought of it that way though, or if there were restrictions on the blocking.

When I compare Jil's list on post #877 to Nessy's on #1325, the only players they truly disagree on are Confusing (Jill says village, Nessy says wolf) and Jil (village / wolf again). Their lists are identical for 6 players (7 if we assume Nessy would put herself on the village list 😉 ), and off-by-one (neutral-to-wolf or neutral-to-village) for 7. Then 3 players on whom Nessy offered no opinion.

So either there's broad consensus as to who's generally suspicious vs unsuspicious (IMHO unlikely), or Nessy purely coincidentally happens to have very similar reads on most players as Jil does but doesn't consider this to be a village-leaning factor for Jil, or Nessy's reads are subconsciously being affected by Jil's list (because Nessy is also a wolf).

Assuming Jil flips wolf, I think I'd like to hear more from Nessy on the next day cycle.

Nessy is already at the top of my list so I like this a lot. Good analysis.

 

[WildZoo]

I just had a thought that if the wolves really thought STL was a seer, it may have made more sense for them to continue to block him, at least until Jilary died, rather than kill him and confirm his seer status, which would basically be the nail in Jil's coffin. Not sure if they would have thought of it that way though, or if there were restrictions on the blocking.

Considering again, they may have reasoned that if he was the seer, he would realize they were blocking him every night and out himself to get Jil lynched.

Hypotheticals are fun.

 

[awesomenessity]

When I compare Jil's list on post #877 to Nessy's on #1325, the only players they truly disagree on are Confusing (Jill says village, Nessy says wolf) and Jil (village / wolf again). Their lists are identical for 6 players (7 if we assume Nessy would put herself on the village list 😉 ), and off-by-one (neutral-to-wolf or neutral-to-village) for 7. Then 3 players on whom Nessy offered no opinion.

So either there's broad consensus as to who's generally suspicious vs unsuspicious (IMHO unlikely), or Nessy purely coincidentally happens to have very similar reads on most players as Jil does but doesn't consider this to be a village-leaning factor for Jil, or Nessy's reads are subconsciously being affected by Jil's list (because Nessy is also a wolf).

Assuming Jil flips wolf, I think I'd like to hear more from Nessy on the next day cycle.

So I didn't look at anyone else's lists when I made that post, I just looked at my small spreadsheet and made some deductions. Actually find it quite interesting I have so many parallels to Jil, definitely puts her in a more village camp to me.

Also my apologies for missing 3 people, I thought I got them all but counting is hard


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[Trilt]

That's why I'm moderately suspicious of people who jumped on the Jil lynch D2... seems like it could have been a good move to gain village cred. Honestly after Jil today, I'm sorta feeling an AM lynch.

 

[Trilt]

Nessie is also one with a question mark on my spreadsheet so I wouldn't be heartbroken by that either.

 

[awesomenessity]

I'm going to

*****unlynch Jil*****



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[SARdoghandler]

IDK. Still feeling Jil as more village. I may be duped but not voting that way. In case I get busy today, casting lynch vote now.

Lynch AM

Because still feels that are not going away with more posts.

 

[SkiOtter]

Okay. I guess I'll start off with my top list of suspicions.

Jil - as I said before, STL's death seems like a kill done to look like a very obvious framing

Just a quick post in the morning, I'll be back during lunch, but those were kinda lame. So you're suspicious of Jil because STL died so it looks like a framing?

No, I'm suspicious of Jil because STL was a big candidate for her lynch and he suddenly turns up dead.

These two posts from AM seem kind of opposite and confuse me a bit. Says that STL's death looks like a framing but then says she's suspicious of Jil because STL is dead and he was pushing for her. AM, could you clarify what you mean? I think you tried to clarify the first post for trilt, but the second post seems to go against what the first post says.

 

[SkiOtter]

As for Cyndia, it just seems like she posts less content than I do. Even in the Ghostbusters game, she was more interactive.

Since she said she was back from NAVC, shes been posting a bit more and it seems to have more content and reasons in it than most of your posts. This could just be because she was called out (by me) and is posting more so that she seems less suspicious, if she is actually a wolf.
You've posted some things that are a bit more content-y than before, but a lot of it you've just chalked up to "just feels" instead of reasons.

 

[Doctor-S]

Checking in today and scanning posts.

Jil, thank you for your explanation of a "neutral serial killer."

 

[Doctor-S]

I'm wondering about N2 nyanko lynch.

I was inclined to believe STL killed nyanko because nyanko wanted to lynch STL on D2 (or was nyanko killed only by wolf N2 vote)? I don't think we know the answer to that question, do we?

*Sorry, I don't know if nyanko is a "she" or a "he." Can someone please tell me? Thanks.

 

[Trilt]

I'm wondering about N2 nyanko lynch.

I was inclined to believe STL killed nyanko because nyanko wanted to lynch STL on D2 (or was nyanko killed only by wolf N2 vote)? I don't think we know the answer to that question, do we?

*Sorry, I don't know if nyanko is a "she" or a "he." Can someone please tell me? Thanks.

Nyanko is a she. Unless wolves have a mechanism for double kills (could be EON, in which case we'll only know after tonight) I'm pretty confident STL did the Ny kill.

 

[Cyndia]

I agree that nessy seems like a good next lynch possibility, especially with ally pointed out. And AM is also on my list - I know it's hard to assess people when they don't post as much and I was pretty darn mia at first, but I really think you should have more feels at this point instead of picking suspicions basing off of inactivity. Just seems like a bit of a cop out to me.

But anyways, regardless of those suspicions, I think we still need to go after Jilary first and don't think we should be switching onto any of the others yet. Figuring out if she's truly wolf or not is going to really help our analysis or else we're still going to be stuck with a lot of hypotheticals.

 

[Animal Midwife]

These two posts from AM seem kind of opposite and confuse me a bit. Says that STL's death looks like a framing but then says she's suspicious of Jil because STL is dead and he was pushing for her. AM, could you clarify what you mean? I think you tried to clarify the first post for trilt, but the second post seems to go against what the first post says.

I'm not sure how they're opposite, SO I'll try to explain myself better.

I was saying the wolves (Jil) killed STL when she was called out by him. That made it WIFOM, but I think it was planned to be that way.

 

[Abnerrs]

Where tf has lis been?

 

[Trilt]

Where tf has lis been?

Probly saving puppies or something. Better be doing it with some good bean filled chili though.

 

[PippyPony]

I voted for AM early on, and have continued to have the same thoughts (although definitely more pronounced now despite these few posts this morning; sorry AM), so I'm fine heading back that way at some point.

That said, I do still kind of feel like lynching Jil would provide more information overall. And, the sketchy feels I got from reading Zen's posts and Jil's posts in tandem has not gone away. When I read back through with the "Zen is wolf" perspective, I thought they were mentioning each other enough to make it seem like some communication maybe took place, but were also both very careful not to go on a full attack or defense of the other one. Sketchy feelz.

I did think Jil was playing pretty village the first few days (and said as much), but I'm also wondering if she's capitalizing on some pre-established "always helpful villager" trust from prior games, and just exploiting it pretty successfully.

Parting shot - where the heck is @Lis? Trilt's quick comment yesterday made me a tad worried we might be getting played. Earlier, he was doing a lot of talking about bussing other wolves for multiple days in a row...I'm wondering if we might be actually seeing that tactic in action.

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[SARdoghandler]

Probly saving puppies or something. Better be doing it with some good bean filled chili though.

Oh god, not the chili debate. There was an earlier post where aomeone mentioned chili and it took all my willpower to not mention beans

 

[PippyPony]

I voted for AM early on, and have continued to have the same thoughts (although definitely more pronounced now despite these few posts this morning; sorry AM), so I'm fine heading back that way at some point.

That said, I do still kind of feel like lynching Jil would provide more information overall. And, the sketchy feels I got from reading Zen's posts and Jil's posts in tandem has not gone away. When I read back through with the "Zen is wolf" perspective, I thought they were mentioning each other enough to make it seem like some communication maybe took place, but were also both very careful not to go on a full attack or defense of the other one. Sketchy feelz.

I did think Jil was playing pretty village the first few days (and said as much), but I'm also wondering if she's capitalizing on some pre-established "always helpful villager" trust from prior games, and just exploiting it pretty successfully.

Parting shot - where the heck is @Lis? Trilt's quick comment yesterday made me a tad worried we might be getting played. Earlier, he was doing a lot of talking about bussing other wolves for multiple days in a row...I'm wondering if we might be actually seeing that tactic in action.

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Woah, hella ninja'ed by abnerrs. Takes a while to type long posts on a phone lol

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[SnowshoeDog143]

When I compare Jil's list on post #877 to Nessy's on #1325, the only players they truly disagree on are Confusing (Jill says village, Nessy says wolf) and Jil (village / wolf again). Their lists are identical for 6 players (7 if we assume Nessy would put herself on the village list 😉 ), and off-by-one (neutral-to-wolf or neutral-to-village) for 7. Then 3 players on whom Nessy offered no opinion.

So either there's broad consensus as to who's generally suspicious vs unsuspicious (IMHO unlikely), or Nessy purely coincidentally happens to have very similar reads on most players as Jil does but doesn't consider this to be a village-leaning factor for Jil, or Nessy's reads are subconsciously being affected by Jil's list (because Nessy is also a wolf).

Assuming Jil flips wolf, I think I'd like to hear more from Nessy on the next day cycle.

This is interesting, but honestly I feel like most of us have very similar lists at this point. I still don't fully trust nessy, but she's been posting way more and with more substance then last game so I'm not sure if I'm convinced she's a wolf.

 

[SnowshoeDog143]

I'm still leaning towards AM and Finn. But I definitely need to start considering other people so I'll have to go back through the thread when I have time today. I doubt that most of us would have been highly suspicious of all the wolves within the first two day.

 

[deleted806434]

As the posts continue, I am more and more sketched out by AM... I still want to vote Jil today though and come back to AM after

 

[PippyPony]

I'm still leaning towards AM and Finn. But I definitely need to start considering other people so I'll have to go back through the thread when I have time today. I doubt that most of us would have been highly suspicious of all the wolves within the first two day.

Hey, maybe we're just that good


(kiiiiiiiiiiidding, I *know* I'm not that good)

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[Doctor-S]

Nyanko is a she. Unless wolves have a mechanism for double kills (could be EON, in which case we'll only know after tonight) I'm pretty confident STL did the Ny kill.

Okay, thanks for the info.

FWIW, my other thoughts:

DVMD seemed to be suspicious of raf and D2 lynched raf (werewolf goon). She was also suspicious of STL for a while. Although she thought STL might be wolfish, she later voted to D3 lynch Abs (and not STL). DVMD is N3 dead.

Doc-S was the other I have leaning village right now

She was suspicious of Abs, too.

I'm trying to take your reads seriously, but is so hard when you are so off on reading me. 🙂

Anyway, I agree on raf. And if raf flips wolf. Abnerrs is my next lynch.

She D3 lynch voted Abs; and then she was N3 dead.

So, I'm wondering if she had reasons for voting Abs? She didn't say anything more about Abs - so I don't know.

 

[Abnerrs]

Okay, thanks for the info.

FWIW, my other thoughts:

DVMD seemed to be suspicious of raf and D2 lynched raf (werewolf goon). She was also suspicious of STL for a while. Although she thought STL might be wolfish, she later voted to D3 lynch Abs (and not STL). DVMD is N3 dead.



She was suspicious of Abs, too.



She D3 lynch voted Abs; and then she was N3 dead.

So, I'm wondering if she had reasons for voting Abs? She didn't say anything more about Abs - so I don't know.

I feel like someone posted this exact thing already

 

[Doctor-S]

Sorry ... here is the full DVMD quote I wanted to insert above:

STL is still in my neutral slightly leaning wolf category.

Trilt I've got as neutral to village.

LIS is making me raise some eyebrows but I think it is more related to him posting a lot at once in order to catch up. I'm holding off on a real position for him.

Pippy, snowshoe and one other newer player...I'll go look are leaning more village to me currently.

The rest, I don't have good reads on yet.

 

[Abnerrs]

I'm still struggling to get some feelings about players.. So here goes:

1. @SnowshoeDog143. She feels neutral to me or leaning to villager. She hasn't posted much but when she does post, her comments sound reasonable to me. She has said that she has some "feels" about Finn though I don't know if she still feels this way about Finn.

2. @Abnerrs. I don't know what to make of her. Her posts seem serious at times, and at other times, they're just plain funny. Her posts can be very entertaining and I have found myself laughing at some of them. They might also distract attention from her. DVMD wanted to lynch her, but I don't know why DVMD wanted to lynch her. DVMD flipped village - so I'm wondering if DVMD actually had a reason for lynching Abs. If not, I don't know why DVMD would throw a vote away on Abs. She didn't say much before she was killed last night - so I'm struggling with this one.

3. @SkiOtter. I don't know one way or the other. Sometimes, she sounds neutral, or leaning villager, or leaning wolf.

Oh. It was you. Lol

 

[Trilt]

Also a good point considering he had Zen in his "strong village" category D2 when he first actually started posting. Why? Why move so quickly to put her in the strong village camp? I don't think she had posted much of anything at that point.

Yo @LetItSnow, think you can explain why you had Zen strong village so early?

(I'm honestly inclined to think he wouldn't put a wolf buddy strong village if he were scum himself, but WIFOM yada yada let's hear an explanation).

Hmm interesting. I would have said almost the opposite. Raf was having a terrible game wolfing and I would guess the wolves knew she was going down. Especially since raf didn't have an ability if Jil had an ability the wolves would prefer rafs lynch. Also a lot of people jumped on the Raf lynch in the last 2 hours when Jil was in the lead. I bet they figured if they could kill STL, Jil could talk herself to stay in the game for a couple more days while they use her ability. Raf definitely couldn't have talked herself out of being lynched and since she didn't have an ability I think the wolves would jump on her lynch.

Only works with the context that they may have thought Jil seered, and didn't necessarily expect a raf lynch to crop up that same day. wolf-wolf lynches are always hard to analyze imo.

Oh chill, I was kidding which I thought was clear by saying that I'll only kick and scream a little bit.

Also didn't say I don't have enough information to have suspicions. Quite the opposite, I said I have suspicions but that I want to reevaluate them and will do so when I get back to my computer. I just don't feel like searching posts on my phone. Why are you on my case about that?

Sorry I responded though. Clearly it would have been better just to ignore you until I was off my phone.

Yet still nothing...

You've played lots of games with me, you should know by now I play like an aggressive idiot pretty regularly. You're getting some of the brunt of it because you're being unapologetic about basically not engaging in the game. I want you to engage. I can't get a good read unless you do, and it is an absolute pain in the ass to get bamboozled by a wolf who just doesn't say or do anything.

Some relevant quotes for me trying hard to be not-fluffy (a weakness for me), thoughts on Zen, why I've held off on votes, and who I am suspicious of:






So this post got some negative and positive feedback. Still feeling feels for Finn and AM, partially still from this analysis. Also, I did make a note that Zensing missed making this list very narrowly.




Agreeing, still relatively early on, that raf wasn't acting like her usual self. I stayed on AM because I felt stronger in that direction.


Justifying voting for AM over anyone else. I still feel like this strongly stands, I still haven't felt like I've seen much other than fluff there (though I could have been skimming and missed it, if so, let me know AM!)


Early arguments on the day we ended up lynching Zen. Also explaining why I'm not totally sold on the Jilary lynch. She may be playing me hard core, but I'm still somewhat on the fence of whether she was just super unlucky.


Update from the last post on when I starting switching to Zen instead. Reiterate I'm still suspicious of AM and Finn. Nothing really concrete for me to go off of, but was starting to develop feels. I believe this was still early in the lynch cycle.


Avoiding plurality, but stating that's where my vote is going - as a number of more experienced players have pointed out is good strategy.


Lynch vote for Zen. Also pointing out (which hadn't been yet) why I thought role revealing so early in the day was sketch.




So there's some quotes for you - if only because I feel like I'm trying hard to be less fluffy haha. To reiterate where my suspicions are (and have been for the last couple of days)

AM - still fishy, still feels. Said she'd try to play better, still flying very under the radar in my opinion and I don't feel like I've seen her contribute to theories at all

Finn - quiet and giving me the feels, though nothing really concrete

Jilary - on the fence. I understand why so many people are lynching her, but I also still feel like she might just be super unlucky this go around.

Will likely cast my vote between AM/Jilary today. AM if Jilary still says nothing that moves me off the fence, Jilary if she says something that sketches me out.

I retract previous fluff statement! 😛

Honestly, I give up. Many of you have even said you will vote for me no matter what, so there really is no point in me trying. I guess tag me if you have any questions for me specifically. I'll try to answer as best I can.


One question I have for trilt, could you tell me where STL supposedly did this? I thought maybe I just missed it the first time I skimmed through the pokemon wolf chat, but I checked all 25 pages again, and the only mention of being over eager was from Dy because a few wolves posted immediately after night close. You tend to close your games early enough that I can check in when I first get up, or on the train to school, so that wasn't really weird for me at the time, lately I've been studying on the train instead, and night closes later in this game, so I would really only be able to post early EOD (real life days, not WW days) anyway. I'm honestly curious. I know you think he was legit onto something, but he wasn't and if this becomes a thing of lynching me for being happy about a game, it's really going to annoy the crap out of me.

I think zen made up the cop thing to explain her quietness and throw some shade in my direction in hopes of distracting everyone from her. I thought it was a weird claim and said so on thread while no one else seemed to pick up on it.

With that, good luck villagers!

Honestly - I just remember it. It is totally possible STL mentioned or complained in our private PM and I'm mixing up, not gonna go through all the chat lol.

Have you posted your reads? I'd like to hear what you think, since I'm sure you're not at the top of the list like all of us. 😛

Just my opinion, but in this case, STL was "neutral" in that he wasn't wolf or village, he was a faction of him own with his own won condition. His only concern was his own survival. He could kill villagers or wolves, but he didn't know who they were anymore than the villagers. He could kill every night, not during the day, he may have had another "ability" but my guess is that he didn't. The way his role is set up sounds more like a lone wolf that is sometimes seen in SDN games.

Why does this matter? Not trying to be flippant, but do you think him being a "lone wolf" vs "neutral" vs "chaos" serial killer would have changed what he said in regards to you?

 

[allyphoe]

This is interesting, but honestly I feel like most of us have very similar lists at this point. I still don't fully trust nessy, but she's been posting way more and with more substance then last game so I'm not sure if I'm convinced she's a wolf.

Doc-S (#1339ish) has 7 names if you assume she counts herself village, spanning village-wolf-neutral. She agrees with Jil on 2 of them (neutral on Abs; village on Doc-S) and is one-off on 4, and entirely flipped on 1 (Coop). Doc-S and Nessy agree on 4 (neutral on Snowy, village on serher and Doc-S, wolf on finn) and are one-off on 3.

You have 4 wolf-suspicions between #658/#1387. You agree with Jil that AM is a wolf, are one-off on finn, and entirely flipped on Jil and nessy. Compared to nessy, other than for her, your wolf list is a subset of her wolf list.

I agree that it's interesting-but-not-conclusive. I find it *extremely* interesting that Nessy took my "they have very similar suspicions but nessy doesn't see that as evidence Jil is village" suggestion as a justification to switch off of Jil.

 

[awesomenessity]

I find it *extremely* interesting that Nessy took my "they have very similar suspicions but nessy doesn't see that as evidence Jil is village" suggestion as a justification to switch off of Jil.

Yes, because I didn't realize we had such similar lists until you pointed it out. I'm likely going to vote for AM today unless something else comes up.

 

[deleted806434]

@Trilt I saw you ask Jilary for her reads above. She posted this on Monday:

1. DVMD - Likely village, which is saying something because I usually have a hard time reading her, but she's participating and critically thinking and questioning things in a way that makes me suspect she's village
2. Trilt - village leaning, some posts stick out to me as being very much for the village, and she's encouraged independent thought
3. WZ - Not sure, I've gone between leaning village and leaning wolf. She doesn't talk as much as she used to, but I get that school will do that to anyone and this certainly isn't a "new this game thing" I just find her blind faith in STL weird and somewhat unlike her. I'm used to her questioning people more
4. SkiOtter - wolf leaning based off of what I have said earlier about her bringing suspicion to CDO so quick. If I remember correctly, Dy said wolves can chat only at night, and if we started on a day cycle, the rest of the pack wouldn't have been able to tell her this was a bad idea, and she seems to have been quieter since, or at least her posts this day cycle aren't sticking out to me as much
6. SARdoghandler - Not sure, nothing really sticking out in my mind either way
7. awesomenessity - I honestly should go look back at her posts more, right now I want to say leaning village, but will look and get back
8. mmmdreamerz - Nothing sticking out to me at the moment, no thoughts if wolf or village
9. kcoughli - Don't have a read here either, though I did see her FB post from yesterday, so I was kind of giving her a pass (hope you got everything worked out!)
10. allyphoe - Gut is saying wolf leaning, but just slightly
11. Coopah - I had her leaning village, but her last post struck me as odd, so now I have her as leaning wolf, definitely on my "watch" list
13. STL - like I said, originally thought he was wolf leaning, now I think he's just a stubbornly wrong villager
14. serher - I could go either way here, post seem fluffy for the most part, but noob, so not sure
15. Cyndia - Being Cyndia, (isn't she ALWAYS a wolf? 😉) Can't get a read on someone that doesn't post much
16. Zensing - leaning village to me, has made some good posts, some fluff posts, it's D2, so this is what I would expect from her at this point
17. LIS - leaning village, pushing people hard like he always does, like that he asks people to post about their suspicions, gives us info
18. finn - Another person I could go either way on, would really like to see more posts
19. AM - She's just always sketch and I'd had her leaning wolf, but I also feel bad because she always gets lynched and is always village, which reminds me of me
20. Jilary - Totally village, because I have inside info yo.
21. raf - Possible wolf, thought it was just noob silly misunderstanding stuff, but when she was explaining herself, things got sketchy
22. Abnerrs - I admit my judgement here is clouded because I genuinely like her. I had her middle of the road, but I see what people are saying, I have no desire to turn the lynch towards her though
23. PippyPony - Some posts make me think, yup, village, others, nope wolf, but likely just noob. Another one I would keep on my "watch" list
24. Doctor-S - Likely village. Seems to really be trying to get people talking which is great in these games
25. HowConfusing - Some sketchy posts, also first game, so really hard to tell, very slightly wolf leaning
26. nyanko - Very slightly village leaning, seems slightly more talkative than other games, but there is that post minimum. My gut is saying village as of right now
27. SnowshoeDog143 - Wolf leaning, some posts made me side eye a bit.

 

[deleted806434]

I think that will be more useful once we see which way Jilary flips

 

[Skimble]

When I compare Jil's list on post #877 to Nessy's on #1325, the only players they truly disagree on are Confusing (Jill says village, Nessy says wolf) and Jil (village / wolf again). Their lists are identical for 6 players (7 if we assume Nessy would put herself on the village list 😉 ), and off-by-one (neutral-to-wolf or neutral-to-village) for 7. Then 3 players on whom Nessy offered no opinion.

So either there's broad consensus as to who's generally suspicious vs unsuspicious (IMHO unlikely), or Nessy purely coincidentally happens to have very similar reads on most players as Jil does but doesn't consider this to be a village-leaning factor for Jil, or Nessy's reads are subconsciously being affected by Jil's list (because Nessy is also a wolf).

Assuming Jil flips wolf, I think I'd like to hear more from Nessy on the next day cycle.

Hey, could you do me/the rest of us a favor and instead of saying "in post #111..." could you just quote the post? I know it makes life easier for me and I can see exactly what the post said without going to a different page.

STL hopped on Jil between the 7pm Saturday and 7:30pm Saturday lynch tallies, where Saturday was Day 1. Jil has already explained that she thought STL, as cop / seer, had a Night 0 seer opportunity. They could easily have blocked him Night 1 (after the cdo lynch).

Yeah, not my theory. I at no point thought that was a thing. That was zen'S theory and I probably would have told her I didn't agree with it if we were in a chat together. I even called her out for it on thread saying it was a sketchy excuse for being quiet.

That said, I do still kind of feel like lynching Jil would provide more information overall. And, the sketchy feels I got from reading Zen's posts and Jil's posts in tandem has not gone away. When I read back through with the "Zen is wolf" perspective, I thought they were mentioning each other enough to make it seem like some communication maybe took place, but were also both very careful not to go on a full attack or defense of the other one. Sketchy feelz.

I did think Jil was playing pretty village the first few days (and said as much), but I'm also wondering if she's capitalizing on some pre-established "always helpful villager" trust from prior games, and just exploiting it pretty successfully.

No full attack? Like me saying her claim for being quiet was sketchy as well as her role claim and who she blocked?

Have you posted your reads? I'd like to hear what you think, since I'm sure you're not at the top of the list like all of us. 😛

Why does this matter? Not trying to be flippant, but do you think him being a "lone wolf" vs "neutral" vs "chaos" serial killer would have changed what he said in regards to you?

Yes, I did post my reads, not that it matters since you have stated you are lynching me no matter what. I think a seer could come out and say "she's not a wolf" and it still wouldn't change your vote.

Considering you made the "he's was a neutral" comment, like he was playing for the village and could win with the village, I thought it was important info. And yes, I do think that would change his entire play towards me. I also find it amusing that in other games as soon as someone turns up wolf or chaos, everyone disregards what that person said (to a point) but almost everyone is still following his ridiculous read on me.