Back to basics WW again

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Coop - As I said earlier, I'm thinking likely village based off her recent analysis posts. Especially since she raised points in my favor - there's no reason for a wolf to do that since I'm an easy under the radar lynch target. Also since she was a lynch target early in the game. And she unlynched cdo after she revealed that she had a role, and was easily willing to follow STL's early push for jil before it had much momentum.

Coopah said:
Well STL said she had a tell, and STL was EXTREMELY spot on last game with wolf spots. I like it. If she flips village then we need to re-examine.
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However - after switching onto jil, she then switched back to cdo based off STL changing his mind. So that parts not great, but it was also a bit in self defense at that point since coop was tied or nearly tied for lynch at that point.

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Pippy - Also as stated earlier, I think her reveal made sense and her play hasn't set off any flags for me, so I also think likely village.

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Finn - Points in favor are that finn was brought up for lynch so many times. Negative point for wanting cdo to reveal, but may be less useful to consider since cdo had outed the fact she had a role and was pretty much dead meat, which finn acknowledged.

finnickthedog said:
I'm probably below the required post count as of right now. My bad.

I've been mulling over some of these posts and I'm kind of inclined to agree with STL. Unless there's a risk that just isn't occurring to me, I don't see any further damage being done by outing what the role is. Would have been nice if she hadn't outed herself as having a role in the first place... but we're past that.
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Wolfy point because kind of backed off raf and AM votes stating they always feel suspicious to them even when they're not.

finnickthedog said:
In regards to AM, I kind of agree but... she always seem sketchy to me and I don't think I've ever actually been right about her.
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finnickthedog said:
Raf is another player that often seems sketch to me when she isn't. So I'm a bit hesitant about jumping on that lynch.
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LIS - I'm back and forth here since he's been intermittently quiet. Early in the game he went through and responded to posts/put up some analysis and questioning as he was catching up. So I'm thinking it's more just he's been busy... His early game analysis had zen in hard village, but I really like that he put AM and Jilary in possible wolf and raf in hard wolf. Some suspicions had been raised about raf at that point and a little on jil but hadn't taken a ton of momentum yet. And I don't think AM was super high as a target then, and he mentioned again that he was possibly interested in an AM lynch.

LetItSnow said:
Here's my current breakdown. Like I think I said earlier, I go hard town, possible town, neutral, possible wolf, hard wolf. Hard does not equal definite. Just means suspicion is stronger. This early in the game, this list is highly inaccurate, usually, and someone hard town might be a wolf or the other way around. That's life. I might have all the wolves as hard village right now. *shrug*

People with an * has tallies in both wolf/village for me, but overall leaned to where they ended up.


Hard village:
Trilt
Skiotter*
Mmmdream
Kcoughli
Zensing
Snowshoe
Lyra

Likely village:
Pippy
DocS
Confusing
WZ

Neutral:
Nessie
Serher
DVMD*
SAR*
Ally*
Coopah*
STL**

Possible Wolf:
Finn
AM
Jilary

Hard Wolf:
Raf
Abners
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LetItSnow said:
Another vote (like AM) that I can get behind.

Lynch ends ... tomorrow? Right?

I work overnight tonight. I'm gonna leave my vote where it is and re-evaluate tomorrow. Might switch to AM or raf.
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kc - Was against lynching cdo in the beginning after she revealed. Also voiced suspicions of raf and AM after both had been initially raised, but before much momentum had been gained on AM.

KCgophervet said:
Having a crappy day. Tried to catch up quick, what I've got for today is:
1) LIS returned in a blaze of glory/posts on ancient history 😛
2) AM is sketchy (to me, she's always sketchy and this feels like her usual play)
3) raf is sketchy d/t lack of insight (hard for me to analyze this one, I feel like I haven't played much with her but I might just have a terrible memory)
4) STL is sketchy for last nights vote - totally agree, did not understand the logic of testing a potential power role with a lynch when theoretically they could have been checked out last night
5) Abnerrs is always sketchy (sure, why not?)
6) Finn knows nothing and typed a typo.

When does this cycle end? Tomorrow morning or evening?

I'm going to go with my gut from yesterday and

Lynch STL

Also Coop's switch to cdo made sense if it was a self-preservation vote. No idea who was jailed yesterday (if it went through before the kill), but since it's a basic game they may not have even been informed (if they weren't doing anything that would have been blocked).
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Serher - Said something about how cdo shouldn't reveal.. which I'd like to give a villager point to, however also may be pointless since cdo had already given up the fact she had an ability, so her fate was pretty much sealed.

serher said:
Also, I guess I don't really see how cdo revealing her role benefits the village. I will trust the judgement of those that have played way more than me, but I would lean toward being more cautious honestly
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3m - Went after raf for being suspicious early on.

mmmdreamerz said:
I agree with this assessment...especially since plurality doesn't start until the next lynch...maybe she missed it that but also seems suspicious-ish

Lynch raf
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Also stated in favor of cdo that revealing the presence of a role is enough of a defense. Again also may be useless.
mmmdreamerz said:
This early in the game, I feel like anyone saying they have a role should be enough...doesn't mean we can't/won't come back to said individual later...
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Like finn, also slightly backed off AM stating she always seems sketch to her, but that was not really much of a point the way it was brought up. Finns seemed a little more decisive, whereas 3m just stated she sort of always found her sketch.

mmmdreamerz said:
For what it is worth AM has come off as sketch in every game I've played with her lol.
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Well I made it to a whopping page 15 :sorry:

That was helpful to me though, putting every dead villager on ignore made it so much faster. I'll continue going through the rest of the pages and post more analysis tomorrow, but as of right now I'm looking at finn from early game play. However... looking at the current lynch tally, finn's not even on the board and so I dont want to make a throwaway vote, especially since I haven't had a chance to more carefully consider later play. I really don't think coop is a wolf at the moment, so I'm debating between LIS and 3m right now.
 
Actually, between LIS and 3m I'd definitely choose 3m. I don't feel great about this since I'd really like to look through posts more, but with so little time left I'm going to go with ******lynch 3m*******.
 
Unofficial Lynch Tally:

3m (3) - Pippy, serher, cyndia
Cyndia () -
Coop (3) - LIS, kc, finn
LIS (1) - Coop

10 minutes remaining
 
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Dead Wolf Lynch Tally:

3m (3) - Pippy, serher, Cyndia
Cyndia () -
Coop (3) - LIS, kc, finn
LIS (1) - Coop

Lynch close in < 10 min
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Dang it. I was at the farm for a class. Solidly vanillager. Never been lynched before...kinda been a week of firsts😉
 
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Special announcement:

grumpy-cat-meme-171.jpg


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I had a feeling Pippy was gonna die last night because she's been so outwardly villager.

I really didn't want to lynch Coopah yesterday and feel a little bad about it. She was pretty villager in my book, but it was kind of a last ditch effort to save myself. I'm completely villager guys.

Honestly I'm not even sure how Coopah ended up being lynched but I think we need to look hard at LIS.
 
mmmdreamerz said:
I really didn't want to lynch Coopah yesterday and feel a little bad about it. She was pretty villager in my book, but it was kind of a last ditch effort to save myself. I'm completely villager guys.
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The fact that you thought Coopah was a villager and then proceeded to force a tie with her doesn't make sense to me. Since you are claiming to be a villager, we could have easily lost 2 villagers to that tie vote if dy chose to. Luckily we didn't, but I'm going to keep my vote from yesterday because it sketched me out even more. In my opinion it makes more sense as a wolf to pull that move than a villager

lynch mmm
 
serher said:
The fact that you thought Coopah was a villager and then proceeded to force a tie with her doesn't make sense to me. Since you are claiming to be a villager, we could have easily lost 2 villagers to that tie vote if dy chose to. Luckily we didn't, but I'm going to keep my vote from yesterday because it sketched me out even more. In my opinion it makes more sense as a wolf to pull that move than a villager

lynch mmm
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I don't see that. If it were tied between me and someone else I thought was a villager, I'd still take the risk and vote to save myself because I know I'm a villager. Despite the risk of losing 2 in a tie (which I feel like hasn't been done in awhile), still better to try to save the known villager (yourself) than someone you just think is a villager.
 
And just throwing out there that I'm surprised Coop was village. Put her in my category of "think is sketchy when village." Top suspects now are... probably Cyndia. Finn is also creeping back up on the radar, one day of villagery comments is no longer enough to keep her in that category for me. I would like to go back and reread ser and 3M's stuff, but let's be honest I may not get the chance.
 
KCgophervet said:
I don't see that. If it were tied between me and someone else I thought was a villager, I'd still take the risk and vote to save myself because I know I'm a villager. Despite the risk of losing 2 in a tie (which I feel like hasn't been done in awhile), still better to try to save the known villager (yourself) than someone you just think is a villager.
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I thought about this as well. I was just thinking if I were in that position I probably wouldn't have forced the tie (with someone I thought was also a villager) at this point in the game because of the unknown. Maybe that's stupid but it's what I would most likely do. I didn't know that the two people dying wasn't a common occurrence, so that does definitely lessen my point.

I'm still keeping my vote though (for now) because I wasn't satisfied by the defense mmm gave yesterday.
 
Also I was kind of hoping to hear that reasoning from mmm, but now it has already been said. I wanted to hear her response to my point, that's the main reason I posted that
 
serher said:
The fact that you thought Coopah was a villager and then proceeded to force a tie with her doesn't make sense to me. Since you are claiming to be a villager, we could have easily lost 2 villagers to that tie vote if dy chose to. Luckily we didn't, but I'm going to keep my vote from yesterday because it sketched me out even more. In my opinion it makes more sense as a wolf to pull that move than a villager

lynch mmm
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Would YOU be willing to just got down without a fight? I KNOW that I am village, and while I wasn't convinced Coopah was wolfy, I also didn't know for sure. In my mind I was saving myself and someone I KNOW is village.
 
serher said:
Also I was kind of hoping to hear that reasoning from mmm, but now it has already been said. I wanted to hear her response to my point, that's the main reason I posted that
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I basically said was KC already said but I honestly hadn't read his posts in the thread yet lol
 
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