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nimbus said:
markets.businessinsider.com

First North American bitcoin ETF booms on debut with $165 million of shares trading hands

The Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) far outstripped the usual first day performance of an exchange-traded fund, with almost 10 million shares trading.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com
Click to expand...

I see as more institutions dive head first into crypto, the average retail investor not being able to acquire physical BTC because said big money gets first access to the newly minted mined bitcoin. At that point the only exposure will be an ETF or “paper” BTC. Still early......
 
nimbus said:
www.nytimes.com

A Fed president predicts the Bitcoin boom won’t last. (Published 2021)

www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...

excellent. More bullish news for BTC. Just do the opposite of these clowns and make money. They have been barking about deflation for years when the right trade has been to play the inflation game. I ignore the rhetorics and focus on the big players actions. Don’t care about the fake CPI number. Basic economy says that printing fresh bills will increase nominal prices over the long run.
 
CocoMelon0531 said:
excellent. More bullish news for BTC. Just do the opposite of these clowns and make money. They have been barking about deflation for years when the right trade has been to play the inflation game. I ignore the rhetorics and focus on the big players actions. Don’t care about the fake CPI number. Basic economy says that printing fresh bills will increase nominal prices over the long run.
Click to expand...
Not so far it hasn't. Investments that do well in high inflation environments have underperformed as inflation has been below expectations.

www.statista.com

Annual inflation rate U.S. 2023| Statista

In economics, the inflation rate is a measure of the change in price of a basket of goods.
www.statista.com www.statista.com
 
dr doze said:
Not so far it hasn't. Investments that do well in high inflation environments have underperformed as inflation has been below expectations.

www.statista.com

Annual inflation rate U.S. 2023| Statista

In economics, the inflation rate is a measure of the change in price of a basket of goods.
www.statista.com www.statista.com
Click to expand...

The way to play the inflation tape has always to buy stuff with increased demand and restricted supply in order to leverage the inflation gain. It’s not simple monkey thinking like they talk about in Econ paper about oh, buy commodity in inflation trades. That thought process is too simple and that’s why those Econ professors are in the ivory towers writing papers instead of being on the floor and executing trades.
 
CocoMelon0531 said:
The way to play the inflation tape has always to buy stuff with increased demand and restricted supply in order to leverage the inflation gain. It’s not simple monkey thinking like they talk about in Econ paper about oh, buy commodity in inflation trades. That thought process is too simple and that’s why those Econ professors are in the ivory towers writing papers instead of being on the floor and executing trades.
Click to expand...
Care to share what you think the inflation trade is right now?
 
dr doze said:
Care to share what you think the inflation trade is right now?
Click to expand...

https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK–Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c&fbclid=IwAR1K7ZIJMmbyHWtkqBWWb_wLTen52muxDw8BJ8F-21JSx5clvIH2AESEZE4

Those are your macro trends for the next decade. Buy the leaders and will beat true inflation by multiples. She does a fantastic job of eliciting those thoughts. I agree 100% with her, and rarely do I agree with people that much when it comes to investments.
 
dr doze said:
Care to share what you think the inflation trade is right now?
Click to expand...

If you're talking about right now, load up on economy opening stocks. Big gains are to be made, with min target of previous all time time at the minimum. Money printing almost guarantees that all time high by the summer.
 
CocoMelon0531 said:
If you're talking about right now, load up on economy opening stocks. Big gains are to be made, with min target of previous all time time at the minimum. Money printing almost guarantees that all time high by the summer.
Click to expand...
What's an "economy opening up stock" and why don't you think the price of those stocks isn't already baked into them right now? I mean, everyone knows things will open up again in a few months when vaccination is widely available. What do you know that the market doesn't?
 
pgg said:
What's an "economy opening up stock" and why don't you think the price of those stocks isn't already baked into them right now? I mean, everyone knows things will open up again in a few months when vaccination is widely available. What do you know that the market doesn't?
Click to expand...

i rec JBLU at 14.50. Dig my post for JBLU.
 
CocoMelon0531 said:
https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK–Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c&fbclid=IwAR1K7ZIJMmbyHWtkqBWWb_wLTen52muxDw8BJ8F-21JSx5clvIH2AESEZE4

Those are your macro trends for the next decade. Buy the leaders and will beat true inflation by multiples. She does a fantastic job of eliciting those thoughts. I agree 100% with her, and rarely do I agree with people that much when it comes to investments.
Click to expand...

ARK funds are the flavor of the month. Awesome returns. But... they are growth stocks. Growth stocks do better in low inflation environments and they are at nose bleed valuations. They carry considerable risk. They remind me of Cisco, INTC, etc. around 1999-2000.

Value stocks tend to do better in inflationary environments. They carry more debt which inflation eats away at.

For me, the "inflation trade" is...If you have a house, take out a long term fixed rate mortgage. If you are about to furnish one, buy better quality furnishings that will last a long time. Tilt your portfolio to value stocks. TIPs, I-Bonds, and with less conviction basic materials stocks, precious metals equity as well.
 
dr doze said:
ARK funds are the flavor of the month. Awesome returns. But... they are growth stocks. Growth stocks do better in low inflation environments and they are at nose bleed valuations. They carry considerable risk. They remind me of Cisco, INTC, etc. around 1999-2000.

Value stocks tend to do better in inflationary environments. They carry more debt which inflation eats away at.

For me, the "inflation trade" is...If you have a house, take out a long term fixed rate mortgage. If you are about to furnish one, buy better quality furnishings that will last a long time. Tilt your portfolio to value stocks. TIPs, I-Bonds, and with less conviction basic materials stocks, precious metals equity as well.
Click to expand...
hmmm...sounds much more thought out than my buy the dip philosophy
 
dr doze said:
Buy the dip, especially in “overpriced growth stocks” and total stock market has in fact worked better than my well thought out overly educated strategy for about the last decade or so.
Click to expand...

Yeah latest bull market has broken all kinds of rules and patterns. Recently (last 10 years) dumb luck has worked as well as anything.
 
Tramadeezy said:
Is there a solution to the impending energy crisis of cryptocurrencies?
Click to expand...
When you compare the energy usage from the fiat system (which actually can't be quantified because the Federal Reserve has never been audited), crypto energy usage is more efficient. Yes it uses a lot of energy, but its quantifiable and it can utilize renewable and waste energy.

news.bitcoin.com

Bitcoin Energy Consumption Is Far More Efficient and Greener Than Today's Banking System – Mining Bitcoin News

Crypto supporters believe critics fail to mention the amount of renewable energy used by a great number of bitcoin mining facilities.
news.bitcoin.com news.bitcoin.com

www.coindesk.com

The Last Word on Bitcoin's Energy Consumption

What people fail to consider when they criticize Bitcoin's electricity footprint, according to our columnist.
www.coindesk.com www.coindesk.com
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
When you compare the energy usage from the fiat system (which actually can't be quantified because the Federal Reserve has never been audited), crypto energy usage is more efficient. Yes it uses a lot of energy, but its quantifiable and it can utilize renewable and waste energy.

news.bitcoin.com

Bitcoin Energy Consumption Is Far More Efficient and Greener Than Today's Banking System – Mining Bitcoin News

Crypto supporters believe critics fail to mention the amount of renewable energy used by a great number of bitcoin mining facilities.
news.bitcoin.com news.bitcoin.com

www.coindesk.com

The Last Word on Bitcoin's Energy Consumption

What people fail to consider when they criticize Bitcoin's electricity footprint, according to our columnist.
www.coindesk.com www.coindesk.com
Click to expand...
I agree that the energy issue is a bit of a canard, but for better or worse I doubt the general public is going to persuaded by “Sichuan, China where a lot of BTC is mined overbuilt hydroelectric plants” and “what about your Xmas lights, hmmmmmmm????”
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
When you compare the energy usage from the fiat system (which actually can't be quantified because the Federal Reserve has never been audited), crypto energy usage is more efficient. Yes it uses a lot of energy, but its quantifiable and it can utilize renewable and waste energy.

news.bitcoin.com

Bitcoin Energy Consumption Is Far More Efficient and Greener Than Today's Banking System – Mining Bitcoin News

Crypto supporters believe critics fail to mention the amount of renewable energy used by a great number of bitcoin mining facilities.
news.bitcoin.com news.bitcoin.com

www.coindesk.com

The Last Word on Bitcoin's Energy Consumption

What people fail to consider when they criticize Bitcoin's electricity footprint, according to our columnist.
www.coindesk.com www.coindesk.com
Click to expand...

can u explain how Bitcoin is more energy efficient than other non-POW cryptocurrencies, and why a POW method makes it superior?
 
coffeebythelake said:
can u explain how Bitcoin is more energy efficient than other non-POW cryptocurrencies, and why a POW method makes it superior?
Click to expand...

My opinion is that POW strengthens the network because work (energy, stranded energy, electricity) is needed to process transactions when BTC moves from one person to another). You have to use resources (computing power) to process that transaction. A result of that energy and computing power of said transaction results in newly minted bitcoin. It’s akin to honest work. Tough to “cheat” the system unless you use tons of computing energy (51% attack) which would result in wasted energy and $$$. A bad actor is more than welcome to try and attack the network, but nodes (I have 1 that I run in my home) confirm that the miner doing the work is following the rules of the network.

I think a full Proof of stake (POS) system leads to centralization of power because no real work is needed to confirm transactions but having a lot of tokens. That centralization could lead to an attack of the network if a bad actor gets a majority of the tokens on a network

Decred, which uses a combo of POW and POS is a project that I’m highly interested in. The POS on top of POW makes it more secure than bitcoin to attack. And the incentives are aligned since miners get a majority of the block reward, but stakeholders lock up their tokens (for a pseudo-random amount of time) to vote that the miners are being honest with their work and also get a reward (yield) for helping secure the network.

If your goal is to be more efficient at the expense of security, non-POW might be the way. But POW is quantifiable (something we haven’t had in the past), and I think in the future we will see energy trading in bitcoin in the future as more oil and gas companies get more into the mining game.
 
nimbus said:
Yeah latest bull market has broken all kinds of rules and patterns. Recently (last 10 years) dumb luck has worked as well as anything.
Click to expand...
Once you guys realize why it isnt dumb luck to see the future of finance is on the blockchain you will understand why “buy the dip” strategy is the only reasonable strategy when purchasing the future of finance. A revolutionary technology is staring right at you and only a few of you guys seem to care to explore why this is the future. Shout out to BladeMDA for an open mind. The Medicis invented MODERN FINANCE in the friggin 1500s with the dual ledger system and almost NOTHING has changed for 500 years in regards to the movement of money and banking in general. We have cute apps that make it easier to handle money online but you still have the same antiquated clearinghouses and SWIFT system transferring cross border payments. Believe me, Im locking in some gains in USD, but I will definitely come to regret it if the dip isnt hard enough to rebuild my original crypto portfolio.

Bank the Unbanked.
 
blockstar said:
Once you guys realize why it isnt dumb luck to see the future of finance is on the blockchain you will understand why “buy the dip” strategy is the only reasonable strategy when purchasing the future of finance. A revolutionary technology is staring right at you and only a few of you guys seem to care to explore why this is the future. Shout out to BladeMDA for an open mind. The Medicis invented MODERN FINANCE in the friggin 1500s with the dual ledger system and almost NOTHING has changed for 500 years in regards to the movement of money and banking in general. We have cute apps that make it easier to handle money online but you still have the same antiquated clearinghouses and SWIFT system transferring cross border payments. Believe me, Im locking in some gains in USD, but I will definitely come to regret it if the dip isnt hard enough to rebuild my original crypto portfolio.

Bank the Unbanked.
Click to expand...
It has been gone over ad nauseum but there are significant problems with bitcoin in its current form. Blockchain is undoubtedly a critical application of computing technology but to assume it will be bitcoin that plays that role in the future is the problem and a huge speculation play. It had been around a long time sure but it is also the choice currency of various criminal enterprises, cannot be recovered in the case of a fraudulent transaction, and has an alarmingly high energy footprint for its currently very small pool of use (or at least those are the 3 main problems I see with it). The criminal use and its threat to destabilize central banking would be my chief concerns because it could prompt governments banning exchange for fiat (as India has) which is a necessary step for using it in a majority of our transactions. If governments start to move in unison against bitcoin its footprint (and I assume its value) will shrink significantly.

Also this love affair with how 'fast' bitcoin is compared to the traditional banking system baffles me in the USA. Can you give me an example of how ACH inconvenienced you this week?
 
So if one bought a Model X last week and Tesla accepted your $100k payment in USD, Tesla would still have $100k. If they accepted your payment in BTC, they currently would have ~20% less than that, assuming they didn't do a BTC/USD conversion immediately upon receipt.

I don't see how BTC really becomes a currency in and of itself, rather than a speculative asset, until almost all of it has been mined and the volatility is reduced a thousand-fold.
 
vector2 said:
So if one bought a Model X last week and Tesla accepted your $100k payment in USD, Tesla would still have $100k. If they accepted your payment in BTC, they currently would have ~20% less than that, assuming they didn't do a BTC/USD conversion immediately upon receipt.

I don't see how BTC really becomes a currency in and of itself, rather than a speculative asset, until almost all of it has been mined and the volatility is reduced a thousand-fold.
Click to expand...

Agree. Historically When a fiat currency has such massive swings people move to a more stable currency to use.
 
chessknt said:
It has been gone over ad nauseum but there are significant problems with bitcoin in its current form. Blockchain is undoubtedly a critical application of computing technology but to assume it will be bitcoin that plays that role in the future is the problem and a huge speculation play. It had been around a long time sure but it is also the choice currency of various criminal enterprises, cannot be recovered in the case of a fraudulent transaction, and has an alarmingly high energy footprint for its currently very small pool of use (or at least those are the 3 main problems I see with it). The criminal use and its threat to destabilize central banking would be my chief concerns because it could prompt governments banning exchange for fiat (as India has) which is a necessary step for using it in a majority of our transactions. If governments start to move in unison against bitcoin its footprint (and I assume its value) will shrink significantly.

Also this love affair with how 'fast' bitcoin is compared to the traditional banking system baffles me in the USA. Can you give me an example of how ACH inconvenienced you this week?
Click to expand...

This. Even the biggest crypto bulls should acknowledge that whole BTC has a first mover and publicity advantage, there are a whole lot of cryptocurrencies with better designs, that would be much more usable as an actual currency. I don’t believe in my ability to pick the right one. I’ll buy stocks.
 
vector2 said:
So if one bought a Model X last week and Tesla accepted your $100k payment in USD, Tesla would still have $100k. If they accepted your payment in BTC, they currently would have ~20% less than that, assuming they didn't do a BTC/USD conversion immediately upon receipt.

I don't see how BTC really becomes a currency in and of itself, rather than a speculative asset, until almost all of it has been mined and the volatility is reduced a thousand-fold.
Click to expand...
Even after it is fully mined it can still swing wildly. Look at how tightly concentrated the supply is among the anonymous whale wallets... Satoshi (if he still exists) controls 6% of the supply himself.
 
DoctwoB said:
This. Even the biggest crypto bulls should acknowledge that whole BTC has a first mover and publicity advantage, there are a whole lot of cryptocurrencies with better designs, that would be much more usable as an actual currency. I don’t believe in my ability to pick the right one. I’ll buy stocks.
Click to expand...
There is a disturbing amount of FOMO (fear of missing out) associated with Bitcoin. So much faith-based future prognosticating.

The implication is that if you don't buy into it NOW then you're going to be left behind, perhaps penniless. Maybe you won't be able to partake in a future economy based on Bitcoin. You'll be left holding worthless shares in businesses producing goods and services for profit, worthless bonds that businesses municipalities and governments will default on, worthless gold doubloons, worthless income-producing real estate, while the Bitcoin visionaries are swapping 1s and 0s in the ether and laughing into their champagne.

Even in this thread we're often reminded that it's not too late or "still early" to get on the bandwagon. The argument is that we're making a mistake by missing out on a big score. We just don't see the big picture. It's a world where the (dubious) assertion that the financial system hasn't changed since the 1500s is somehow considered evidence of its imminent collapse and/or an imminent paradigm shift.

I'm reminded of the ~2000 dot com collapse where excited people were talking incessantly about how the INTERNET CHANGES EVERYTHING and yes, the internet DID change everything, and still the vast majority of those internet companies blew up. Seeing a future trend or a future possibility doesn't confer the ability to predict how to profit from it. However much history likes to cherrypick "visionaries" who guessed right.

Even if the Bitcoin fans are right about the long term utility of cryptocurrency (and I suspect they might be) that doen't mean that Bitcoin is the right horse to bet on.

It's hard to find a person who bet on ANYTHING in the last decade and lost. I do think this extraordinary decade of gains in all assets for all people everywhere has tainted a lot of perceptions of what can and can't lose in the next decade.

It's tempting to look for alternate investments, given high stock market valuations and the crappy bond options out there. And I bet a bunch of people will make a bunch of money (and some will lose a bunch of money) playing games with cryptocurrency. I'm going to sit out Bitcoin. It's not like we won't be allowed to use Bitcoin if it ever actually does become useful for something beyond speculation and manipulation.
 
I am with you guys that Bitcoin itself is not going to be the currency of the future. However, its first mover advantage and relative scarcity makes it the “digital gold” of the blockchain space. Probably a third are lost into Wreck It Ralphs home leaving around 15M bitcoins that will ever be available to the world. I personally see the value in the BTC coming from the cost of production/energy consumption as the floor of value for BTC at any given time. I think its like 6k per coin but varies depending on where they are being mined. How much human capital is wasted in Sierra Leone mining diamonds to put on your girl to keep her happy?

Predicting which crypto will be the future is like picking Amazon in 99. Its dumb luck. ACH inconveniences me every week putting money in these stupid apps trading on margin which I dont even understand or previously waiting to buy crypto when I was scooping it up. Can stay liquid in crypto space with stablecoins if I want to get in something quickly and not have to worry about figuring out “margins”. I understand how crypto functions much better than the stock market and other crap. Another example would be all the mortgage junk you have to go through to buy a house. Put it on smart contracts and avoid the fifty calls you have to make figuring out loan approvals when I can have all my collateral in crypto and just buy through a crypto loan at a much lower rate (I think its like 1% on Celsius and Nexo but havent actually done it so dont quote me). There is utility to magic internet money and in 20
years its going to be standard. I see it in the same light as AI driven cars. The only actual driving that will be done by humans in 30 years will be on a race track or at an adult disney world of driving when the safety of AI driving proves to eliminate the millions of deaths that happen each year on the road.
 
blockstar said:
I am with you guys that Bitcoin itself is not going to be the currency of the future. However, its first mover advantage and relative scarcity makes it the “digital gold” of the blockchain space. Probably a third are lost into Wreck It Ralphs home leaving around 15M bitcoins that will ever be available to the world. I personally see the value in the BTC coming from the cost of production/energy consumption as the floor of value for BTC at any given time. I think its like 6k per coin but varies depending on where they are being mined. How much human capital is wasted in Sierra Leone mining diamonds to put on your girl to keep her happy?

Predicting which crypto will be the future is like picking Amazon in 99. Its dumb luck. ACH inconveniences me every week putting money in these stupid apps trading on margin which I dont even understand or previously waiting to buy crypto when I was scooping it up. Can stay liquid in crypto space with stablecoins if I want to get in something quickly and not have to worry about figuring out “margins”. I understand how crypto functions much better than the stock market and other crap. Another example would be all the mortgage junk you have to go through to buy a house. Put it on smart contracts and avoid the fifty calls you have to make figuring out loan approvals when I can have all my collateral in crypto and just buy through a crypto loan at a much lower rate (I think its like 1% on Celsius and Nexo but havent actually done it so dont quote me). There is utility to magic internet money and in 20
years its going to be standard. I see it in the same light as AI driven cars. The only actual driving that will be done by humans in 30 years will be on a race track or at an adult disney world of driving when the safety of AI driving proves to eliminate the millions of deaths that happen each year on the road.
Click to expand...
But it can't be digital gold because its supply is controlled by so few individuals. Even if that improves to the point where we don't feel that it can be pump/dumped by several whales working together then its price fluctuation is a major barrier to a store of wealth. If I am to view this as a hedge against inflation how do you justify the fact that if I put $100k 1 week ago it would be worth 82.5k today, 2 weeks ago 98k, and 3 weeks ago 117k? Its price jumps and falls at the whims of Musk's twitter account. That isn't a store of value that is a speculative highly volatile asset.
 
I agree it’s a speculative asset but here’s an all time BTC chart. It has 10x’d every 3-4yrs. Institutional buyin makes it slightly less speculative at this point. The fact that it’s decentralized makes it less susceptible to government intervention.

D322FD73-A543-46CF-AAAB-FB39F62B0A9F.jpeg


bitcoin.zorinaq.com

All-time Bitcoin price chart

bitcoin.zorinaq.com
 
Last edited:
nimbus said:
I agree it’s a speculative asset but here’s an all time BTC chart. It has 10x’d every 3-4yrs. Institutional buyin makes it slightly less speculative at this point. The fact that it’s decentralized makes it less susceptible to government intervention.

View attachment 331384

bitcoin.zorinaq.com

All-time Bitcoin price chart

bitcoin.zorinaq.com
Click to expand...
So if it is a speculative play it is vulnerable to being dethroned by a superior product and plummeting in a dot com fashion. It was clearly an amazing choice in 2010 but in 2021 I have serious doubts. I hope it isn't the best crypto can offer because of it is I am not sure how scalable the tech can be given the massive energy footprint. It makes little sense to pile on this late in the game and I don't believe for a second it will find governmental adoption among any of the major economies.
 
Last edited:
https://deloitte.wsj.com/cfo/2021/03/02/does-bitcoin-belong-on-your-balance-sheet/

As expected, MicroStrategy’s Macro play has resulted in a race for these large corps, and institutional investors to evaluate what percentage of their balance sheets they should allocate to bitcoin accumulation. This phenomena is not localized to the US, so the global appetite for Crypto will continue. Still early, till it’s not
 
Can somebody explain to me how BTC is supposed to be a currency of the future but also a growth asset? If its inherent value is in being used for transactions but everybody is holding onto it because of it's increasing value compared to USD, where does its utility lie?
 
Ronin786 said:
Can somebody explain to me how BTC is supposed to be a currency of the future but also a growth asset? If its inherent value is in being used for transactions but everybody is holding onto it because of it's increasing value compared to USD, where does its utility lie?
Click to expand...

It's still relatively early so the final perceived value of a bitcoin is still all over the place.

Is it $5000 a bitcoin or $75000 a bitcoin?
I am unsure. But with its volatility, I am okay investing in it and having some.

I am taking a more conservative dollar cost averaging approach in general. When there are big dips, I will pour in a bit extra, but I don't have that much time to devote

It's starting to be used in transactions though.

I can go online and buy physical gold bullion using bitcoin.

Apparently Russell Okung got part of his contract paid in bitcoin (although there is question on whether he just used his dollars to convert after).
www.nbcsports.com

Former Seattle Seahawk Russell Okung puts half of salary in Bitcoin, considered highest paid in the league now

Okung is the first NFL player to have a portion of his contract in Bitcoin.
www.nbcsports.com www.nbcsports.com

For me though, money is already an abstract issue. I get paid via direct deposit and pay my bills virtually. I rarely ever deal in cash. So for someone to say bitcoin is just 1s and 0s is technically true, but for me, my money is already digital. Bitcoin seems like a logical extension.
 
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