Here's the thing: I'm actually less pissy about true RNG. I figured people saying that were using it metaphorically - if you're not using an RNG or Magic 8 Ball or Ouija Board or something, then a "jokey" vote has some sort of motivation, IMHO, even if it is really a jokey vote as stated by a villager. Obviously if you're village hunting a wolf you don't know, then it's not going to be amazing wolf hunting.
However, I think it would be impossible for a wolf to make a D1 choice without a RNG and not have it have some element of thought about how things will look later.
The reality is that from the moment a wolf knows they are wolf - their every choice is motivated by that. So yes, D1 can yield info, because as early as that choices and interactions are being made. Not many data points, but they are there.
So in that, I do agree that D1 is more useful later in the game.
I didn't read MJ's post, I'm sure it was genius. I don't know if I agree that D1 will be no better than chance or worse.
The thing about feels - DO NOT underestimate them. I've been bragging about getting 33/50 on a quiz testing if one individual post was wolf or villager, and getting it correct. That's better than chance, and it was higher than what others where claiming.
The point being, that you *can* read a single post in isolation, and ask yourself, what is this person's motivation, and how is what their saying reflecting that? As I've played and researched, I've gotten better at actually articulating what specifically in the post I believe to be wolfy. But gut feel and intuition absolutely have science behind them. Mafia was developed as part of a class project on game theory.
The basic game, which relies so much on post analysis, when played well, is absolutely is better than chance, so it suggests that "feels" from posts and votes counts for a lot more than we think. Our brains put things together in ways that we can't even articulate yet generates accurate results more than we credit.
I'm learning more from the Mafia Universe and wiki site about wolf hunting - and what it comes down to, is interaction and specifically pressure.
You can put a villager and a wolf on the line under pressure, and both will at least consider how their reaction might make them look (at least villagers should a little, but not too much). However, the wolf has to more concerned with image control and where/how they manipulate things, while appearing truthful, than on the truth.
While I think you are correct that villagers are mostly screwing around D1, the wolves are just trying to appear so. That difference however slight, is there, and it may or may not be seen. Not to mention, not every villager is screwing around D1. We have a few expert wolf hunters imho (like Kara, AM, Pippy, come to mind but there are others) (and keep in mind expert wolf hunting I don't see as how accurate you are - but more about method, since the method alone can generate results for the rest of village). The theory of excellent wolf hunting is not just reading into what others are saying (that's more what I do, and it has its value) but *pushing* players in certain ways. That happens with votes placed and also questions.
The more I play, the more I realize that D1 isn't nearly as much the crapshoot as people think. It might be for that lynch close, but at that point, lines have been drawn. Wolves have committed to where they are and what their strategy was for D1. And there is *some* on their part, fact. D1 doesn't have to be a crapshoot, some of it is what villagers make of it.
Keep in mind, being too jokey on D1 can make you as a villager look wolfy. I used to rage against those conventions, and they shouldn't be taken as gospel but now I see there is something to be said for them.
Keep in mind too, it wasn't just your joke, but the timing. That really is next level post/vote analysis maneuver, (I'm weak at) and as I said, good villagers will be able to manipulate wolves with pressure into making choices that reveal they are not innocent in their choices.
Now, we weren't right about you. Of course, how your jokey vote was treated also told us a bit about the players doing so, so again, jokey votes can have more significance that we acknowledge.
Lastly, yes, I don't often see that D1 itself yields as the first death, a wolf. I *have* quite often seen it set village up to nail wolves as early as D2 or D3. That's significant timing. Nevermind how that D1/2/3 can set up village to catch the rest.
I think something like this was at work in Mel's game and in Pip's game, IRRW. (My new thing is if I recall wrong for WW, because I really do)
i thought you were my friend....
