GME, AMC, EXPR, FOSL, NOK, and CVM

Panacea Financial Contract Review
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IMGASMD said:
Anyone can give me a read on GME? What’s supporting the price at $50? Just because people don’t want to sell? Simple supply and demand?
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Presumably there is another big tranche of short covering leading to some buy pressure as those shorts who were getting wrecked and held on are glad to get out at 50 rather than 350.
 
I am buying IPOE for. It will be a long term play...
 
Southpaw said:
agreed. Roaring kitty FTW. IMO vlad and RH have been revealed as frauds. I’m actively moving the small amount of RH funds I have to another broker.
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Is there a lawsuit at some point alleging fidelity wouldn’t let someone sell and so he lost 800k? Or something like that.
 
in other news Vanguard is bringing out a new app thats less geared towards Mortimer and Randolph
 
I'll give you guys an example of why it was a good idea for me to give up trading ~1.5-2 years ago.

Was reading @neurochica 's posts with her excellent swing results this past week and I immediately got the bug again. And I imagine there are some newbies who are enticed by her P/L screencaps.

So, as I'm bitten by the bug I start looking at my charts, and they look fantastic for a bitcoin miner/proxy short. Stocks like RIOT, MARA, MSTR etc are making new highs on weaker volume and with a declining relative strength index. To boot, their fundamentals are terrible.

Because I want to try to be a bit risk adverse I started this past Friday buying some in-the-money RIOT 70 puts expiring the 26th. Immediately the position is making me nervous because the premium for options in stocks this volatile is usually pretty expensive, which means that if the stock only moves a little bit favorably in your direction (as opposed to a massive move) you're still going to lose money because the implied volatility is so high. So even though RIOT moves to ~65 my options remain flat to down. And I continue adding even more on Friday and on Monday as the stock goes down to sideways.

Essentially at this point I have $15,000 short position and I'm about $600 up (because of the dip buying).

Then arrives today. Payday. BTC and RIOT are down big pre-market. I am hemming and hawing back and forth before the open whether to set my sell orders at a juicy target price (which there is a good chance of reaching) or a conservative price. Long story short, RIOT closed down 30% today. But early in the session my stops hit and I sold 3/4 of my position way too early for a conservative profit and the last 1/4 a bit early for a slightly bigger profit. All in all, I closed out for a net +$13,500 gain.

To the casual observer it sounds like a pretty good day, but I'll tell you why it isn't. "No one ever got hurt taking a profit" is a great saying, but I've always had trouble mentally absorbing and embracing it. I cannot get over the fact that I sold too early today. If I had stuck to the plan, I would've caught the real collapse and that $13,500 gain would've been $23,000. Indeed, I had set a sell limit specifically for that gain in the premarket, but I made an impulse decision and lowered the stop because I got scared. Additionally, I broke beginner rules on Friday and Monday, which I very clearly know are wrong, and just kept going. I added to my position on Friday and Monday on dips which is not a great idea. If your options position immediately goes against you or starts decaying because the volatility isn't matching what's priced in, *don't add more*. But of course, I added more.

Most relatively educated people willing to put in the studying and research don't lose money trading because of lack of knowledge. There are about 15 really good books and countless online resources dedicated to the ins-and-outs of day and swing trading. People lose money because of psychology and lack of discipline. Anyone can come up with a good trading plan, but if you lack the will to follow through with the plan (like if I had let my target sell limit order just bloody stand) because you lack the temperament (too much fear, too much greed, not enough patience), you. will. lose. money. Take my word for it.
 
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It feels like 2000. Dialed back to 40/60. Took a tiny position in precious metals equity that I plan to slowly add to.

More than half of my portfolio is guaranteed to have a negative after tax real return. (Absent a deflationary collapse).
 
vector2 said:
Presumably there is another big tranche of short covering leading to some buy pressure as those shorts who were getting wrecked and held on are glad to get out at 50 rather than 350.
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I hope the guy who bought at 300 didn't sell yet
 
dr doze said:
It feels like 2000. Dialed back to 40/60. Took a tiny position in precious metals equity that I plan to slowly add to.

More than half of my portfolio is guaranteed to have a negative after tax real return. (Absent a deflationary collapse).
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Agreed. I had a Joe Kennedy moment today when the nurse and RT I was working with were talking about their daytrading wins. Expecting a painful few years due to some combination of inflation, reduced returns, and a real reckoning of how traumatic the past year has been to the economy.
 
ambiturner said:
Agreed. I had a Joe Kennedy moment today when the nurse and RT I was working with were talking about their daytrading wins. Expecting a painful few years due to some combination of inflation, reduced returns, and a real reckoning of how traumatic the past year has been to the economy.
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I "expect" it too. But I also know that what is expected is not necessarily what you get.

Japan 1989. The market reached a P/E of 65. Twice what we have. No reason we can't match or exceed that. Also, I am not sure what kills the market with the Fed printing like mad and committed to do "whatever is necessary".
 
I sold gme at a huge loss. 60 percent
Can someone tell me why bond market yield is skyrocketing??? I thought yieldbgoes up when prices go down. Fed is still buying a ton of bonds. So why is it skyrocketing ?
 
anbuitachi said:
I sold gme at a huge loss. 60 percent
Can someone tell me why bond market yield is skyrocketing??? I thought yieldbgoes up when prices go down. Fed is still buying a ton of bonds. So why is it skyrocketing ?
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I dont pay attention to my retirement accounts as they are basically autopilot. But looking at my taxable accounts is pretty crazy. Lost more than 35k$ just this week.

The reasons given in the news are unsatisfying and dont make much sense. Bond rates up a little bit which is a far cry from "skyrocketing". Stimulus coming out soon. IMO Don't worry whole market down. Just buy the dip if u have money. Get the stocks with good fundamentals and solid earnings that you always wanted at a discount. You shouldn't sell unless you think your stock sucks, and in that case you should ask why you even bought it in the first place!
 
coffeebythelake said:
I dont pay attention to my retirement accounts as they are basically autopilot. But looking at my taxable accounts is pretty crazy. Lost more than 35k$ just this week.

The reasons given in the news are unsatisfying and dont make much sense. Bond rates up a little bit which is a far cry from "skyrocketing". Stimulus coming out soon. IMO Don't worry whole market down. Just buy the dip if u have money. Get the value stocks you always wanted at a discount
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The reasons never make sense. If the reasons made any sense they would know how the market would react to information before it did. "Oh the market dipped in response to the president's speech". wtf? We all knew what he was going to say. Why would it be any different after he said it?

But I can time the market now. All I need to do is to buy two days after I was planning on buying. Cause it keeps dipping right after I put money in lol.
 
GassYous said:
The reasons never make sense. If the reasons made any sense they would know how the market would react to information before it did. "Oh the market dipped in response to the president's speech". wtf?
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You are right.. It is always after the fact explanations to try and fit the data with the current events. That's why no point trying to time thr market. Buy what you think are solid stocks. Dont get hung up when it takes a big dive and just wait for it to come back up.
 
dr doze said:
It feels like 2000. Dialed back to 40/60. Took a tiny position in precious metals equity that I plan to slowly add to.

More than half of my portfolio is guaranteed to have a negative after tax real return. (Absent a deflationary collapse).
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I just cut another 10% out of my stock allocation. It feels like shameful market timing because I wasn't planning to change my AA until mid 2022 when I leave the USN.

Now I'm wondering how much pop I'll miss when the next round of stimulus funnels into the stock market.

I had thought about buying some more PMs but the premiums over spot are ridiculous. I don't know what to make of it. So I'm just keeping what I have and not adding to it right now.
 
coffeebythelake said:
I dont pay attention to my retirement accounts as they are basically autopilot. But looking at my taxable accounts is pretty crazy. Lost more than 35k$ just this week.

The reasons given in the news are unsatisfying and dont make much sense. Bond rates up a little bit which is a far cry from "skyrocketing". Stimulus coming out soon. IMO Don't worry whole market down. Just buy the dip if u have money. Get the stocks with good fundamentals and solid earnings that you always wanted at a discount. You shouldn't sell unless you think your stock sucks, and in that case you should ask why you even bought it in the first place!
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The market can be very irrational and the so called experts don't know anything
 
coffeebythelake said:
I dont pay attention to my retirement accounts as they are basically autopilot. But looking at my taxable accounts is pretty crazy. Lost more than 35k$ just this week.

The reasons given in the news are unsatisfying and dont make much sense. Bond rates up a little bit which is a far cry from "skyrocketing". Stimulus coming out soon. IMO Don't worry whole market down. Just buy the dip if u have money. Get the stocks with good fundamentals and solid earnings that you always wanted at a discount. You shouldn't sell unless you think your stock sucks, and in that case you should ask why you even bought it in the first place!
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thats insane. thats like my entire retirement account
 
anbuitachi said:
thats insane. thats like my entire retirement account
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Are you an attending? I finished residency a few years ago and have 1/2 mil in retirement account. Dude you need to save more for retirement or find a better employer who does more 401k matching
 
anbuitachi said:
500k in few years? Must've grown a lot .
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78EB93F6-5D9E-48A3-A54D-76149F115EC7.jpeg
 
coffeebythelake said:
This graph can be easily misinterpreted
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I'm not sure what to make of data that's 100 years older than mutual funds, ETFs, index funds, 401(k) accounts, 24h news show talking heads pretending they know what's going to happen, commoditized collateralized certificated subprime debt insurance pinkie-swear promise exchanges, online brokerage firms accessible to the unwashed masses, Reddit, and obviously there weren't SDN financial threads in those days either.

We should kill some chickens and cast their entrails upon the ground. While people gather 'round to read the signs, we can BBQ some chicken.
 
anbuitachi said:
I went in at the peak. Since I'm new attending.
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If you are a year out you should hopefully have more than 35k. Assuming 401k with match and 457, 403b and backdoor roth. Even though the market dipped it big in March 2020 came roaring back pretty quickly.

pgg said:
I'm not sure what to make of data that's 100 years older than mutual funds, ETFs, index funds, 401(k) accounts, 24h news show talking heads pretending they know what's going to happen, commoditized collateralized certificated subprime debt insurance pinkie-swear promise exchanges, online brokerage firms accessible to the unwashed masses, Reddit, and obviously there weren't SDN financial threads in those days either.

We should kill some chickens and cast their entrails upon the ground. While people gather 'round to read the signs, we can BBQ some chicken.
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Sorry my comment is simpler than that. Look at the y axis of the graph
 
coffeebythelake said:
If you are a year out you should hopefully have more than 35k. Assuming 401k with match and 457, 403b and backdoor roth. Even though the market dipped it big in March 2020 came roaring back pretty quickly.



Sorry my comment is simpler than that. Look at the y axis of the graph
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Not inherently. Paying off debt quickly is often a superior strategy to taxable investing especially with school loan rates as high as they are. Not everyone has a 401k where they work and that doesn't mean it is a bad job. 457 only available at a nonprofit or fed/state government job employed job.
 
chessknt said:
Not inherently. Paying off debt quickly is often a superior strategy to taxable investing especially with school loan rates as high as they are. Not everyone has a 401k where they work and that doesn't mean it is a bad job. 457 only available at a nonprofit or fed/state government job employed job.
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Perhaps you are right. I lived like a resident for several years after finishing residency. Zero student loans, maxed out contributions.. now Correct me if I'm wrong right now I believe some types of student loan payments are being put on hold. Might also be a good time to refinance. Also 401k, 457b and 403b are pretax deductions. Backdoor Roth is not.
 
coffeebythelake said:
Perhaps you are right. I lived like a resident for several years after finishing residency. Zero student loans, maxed out contributions.. now Correct me if I'm wrong right now I believe some types of student loan payments are being put on hold. Might also be a good time to refinance. Also 401k, 457b and 403b are pretax deductions. Backdoor Roth is not.
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I would say that is rare to exit training with no loans unless your loan burden was relatively low or you had access to moonlighting and low expenses (eg no family costs).

Private practice employed jobs have variable access to pre tax deductions unlike hospital/megagroup/amc employed jobs so backdoor roth might be the only tax advanted form of investing available. When looking at a loan with 6% interested in deferment until the government decides it isn't vs. taxable I wouldn't see it inherently wrong to chip away at the deferred loan especially with the market on fire like it is right now. Or saving for a house downpayment. Or saving for a wedding etc etc all sorts of reasons 8 months out someone wouldn't have a massive taxable account
 
coffeebythelake said:
Perhaps you are right. I lived like a resident for several years after finishing residency. Zero student loans, maxed out contributions.. now Correct me if I'm wrong right now I believe some types of student loan payments are being put on hold. Might also be a good time to refinance. Also 401k, 457b and 403b are pretax deductions. Backdoor Roth is not.
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You have Asian tiger parents to pay for all the tuitions? 😉
 
coffeebythelake said:
This graph can be easily misinterpreted
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Not sure how. Additional valuation metrics showing how high the current market valuation is:

106828990-1611405241225-goldmanchart.png

By every valuation metric except interest rates, the market is at top valuation. Does it makes sense to say "BUY STOCKS" Because they are less overpriced than the fantastically overvalued bond market?
 
dr doze said:
Not sure how. Additional valuation metrics showing how high the current market valuation is:

View attachment 331352
By every valuation metric except interest rates, the market is at top valuation. Does it makes sense to say "BUY STOCKS" Because they are less overpriced than the fantastically overvalued bond market?
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The problem is that there isn’t an asset class that is not “overvalued” at the moment. What to do....
 
nimbus said:
The problem is that there isn’t an asset class that is not “overvalued” at the moment. What to do....
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If you are normally 70/30...Maybe go 60/40. Diversify widely. Of the stocks that you do hold tilt towards less expensive areas of the market More international (Particularly Emerging markets)...Less domestic. More value less growth.
As far as bonds go,...since the yield curve is ****, hold cash/Tbills. No munis or corporates.

Of course I have been saying that for awhile and left behind by US growth heavy portfolios. One day I will be right.
 
dr doze said:
If you are normally 70/30...Maybe go 60/40. Diversify widely. Of the stocks that you do hold tilt towards less expensive areas of the market More international (Particularly Emerging markets)...Less domestic. More value less growth.
As far as bonds go,...since the yield curve is ****, hold cash/Tbills. No munis or corporates.

Of course I have been saying that for awhile and left behind by US growth heavy portfolios. One day I will be right.
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international is not overvalued right now?
 
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