HoWWrses: Game Thread

[CoffeeQuestionMark]

Lynch SAR

If we don't get to PM with each other, historically as it goes...

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[JustPaws]

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[WildZoo]

Wah I am now a gross number and MJ is no longer next to me, how am I supposed to ask him if he's a wolf now?

 

[WildZoo]

Hello world this is me
Life should be mmm mmm yeah, fun for everyone
Hello world come and see
Life should be fun for everyone

Life is easy if you wear a smile.... so why don't we all be friends? Any horseperson knows that the best friendships are built at the barn... right along the biggest rivalries. Horse people either have your back to the ends of the earth, or they're the most cutthroat humans known to mankind. Better check your girths one more time before galloping off into the sunset.... your best friend may turn on you at any moment for the glory of that blue satin ribbon.

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Rules:
1. You may PM with the person above and below you on the roster. If you are the last person on the roster, you may pm with the first person on the roster. Please include the mods (or at least Sporty) in your PMs.
2. No screenshots.
3. Don't edit lynch votes. It is okay to edit regular posts. DO NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, DELETE POSTS.
4. Early actions and contingency actions are much appreciated. PLEASE get your night actions in early if at all possible. This is a large game and we need all the help we can get.
5. Dead must post in **** stars ****
6. Lynch closes at 9 PM CST. Night closes at 6 AM CST regardless of if mods are available.

Your fearless herd leaders are @PippyPony and @SportPonies

First lynch close at 9 PM CST tomorrow (Monday) night. Get lynching!

Saddle Club!!!

 

[WildZoo]

Okay but seriously, please drop the conversation about the roster switch. Ski was not intentionally moved from her preferred number, everyone moved means nothing. Carry on.

But I want to complain about losing one of my preferred PM partners

 

[WildZoo]

Day 1 Aaaand they're off! Lynch Tally

Lupin (1) - genny
Mel (2) - Cray, Karabeans
Kara (1) - Snowy
Weim (1) - AM
Cray (1) - zigjazz
Capri (1) - skim
Barks (1) - Dina

8/29 voting
@Melchizedek you're the very early leader!

Lynch close at 9pm CST

Barks voted dina, you've got it backwards cap'n

Also

lynch Dina
For not killing me before LyLo

 

[PippyPony]

Barks voted dina, you've got it backwards cap'n

~~~~~
This is what I get for tallying during hematology lab

On the plus side, blood continues to be wicked cool

Spoiler: Anaplasma somethingsomething not canis

~~~~~~

 

[sheltermed]

####lynch coffee####

Forever untrustworthy in my experience

 

[Animal Midwife]

Unofficial Day 1 Aaaand they're off! Lynch Tally

Lupin (1) - genny
Mel (2) - Cray, Karabeans
Kara (1) - Snowy
Weim (1) - AM
Cray (1) - zigjazz
Capri (1) - skim
Dina (2) - Barks, WZ
SAR (1) - Coffee?
Coffee? (1) - shelter

11/29 voting

Lynch close at 9pm CST

 

[killerleaf]

##lynch ziggyzaggy###

this will be the third time playing with them, so I figure the odds are that they are a wolf this time.

 

[Lupin21]

An NPC!! Oh boy!! NPC, I desire fun and adventure. Can you give me a quest?

 

[Animal Midwife]

##lynch ziggyzaggy###

this will be the third time playing with them, so I figure the odds are that they are a wolf this time.

I just want to clarify that odds reset whenever a new game starts. She has a 3.45% chance of being a wolf this time.

 

[Lupin21]

I just want to clarify that odds reset whenever a new game starts. She has a 3.45% chance of being a wolf this time.

Always cracks me up when folks say "surely this time they be woof!"

 

[killerleaf]

ok, so I thought that sounded better than "threw a dart and her number was hit"

 

[Lupin21]

ok, so I thought that sounded better than "threw a dart and her number was hit"

Why would you need to force a reason? Either you believe your reasoning or you don't. If you don't, I think I need to put a wolf mark by your name.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

I just want to clarify that odds reset whenever a new game starts. She has a 3.45% chance of being a wolf this time.

Hmmm... based on your logic you could be a wolf also because I've never played a game where you were OG

 

[Animal Midwife]

Hmmm... based on your logic you could be a wolf also because I've never played a game where you were OG

Sure.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Hmmm... based on your logic you could be a wolf also because I've never played a game where you were OG

Whoops I meant this to respond to killer now you. On my phone and Idk how to change it

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Sure.

Oh lord sure is one of my least favorite words

 

[Animal Midwife]

Oh lord sure is one of my least favorite words

I like absolutes.

 

[Lupin21]

I like absolutes.

?

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

I just want to clarify that odds reset whenever a new game starts. She has a 3.45% chance of being a wolf this time.

But I don't agree with your stats. Everyone has a higher than 3.45% of being a wolf provided there is more than one wolf which I feel is a safe assumption

 

[Animal Midwife]

But I don't agree with your stats. Everyone has a higher than 3.45% of being a wolf provided there is more than one wolf which I feel is a safe assumption

My stats are 100% accurate.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

My stats are 100% accurate.

Nah

 

[killerleaf]

ziggy---D1 sucks. There is usually zero anything to base a vote on. However, I have been fussed at numerous times for putting up a vote, but not have a reason attached. I have been fussed at for saying "I rng'd". so tried to come up with something other than that to use as a reason. that is all. and all the statistics make my head explode.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Nah

Prove it.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

ziggy---D1 sucks. There is usually zero anything to base a vote on. However, I have been fussed at numerous times for putting up a vote, but not have a reason attached. I have been fussed at for saying "I rng'd". so tried to come up with something other than that to use as a reason. that is all. and all the statistics make my head explode.

I'm not holding it against you. They've done the same to me lol

 

[WildZoo]

Are we starting a game with math again

 

[Animal Midwife]

Are we starting a game with math again

Ye

 

[sheltermed]

Ziggy always kind of sucks. I don't know if AM's actual numbers are correct but if roles are handed out based on RNG, the stats are always just that... Random.

 

[vetmedhead]

Lynch am

For making me think about statistics this early in the morning

 

[sheltermed]

Lmao. I thought killer said "d1--ziggy sucks" dyslexia at its finest. I guess my true feelings are out

 

[Animal Midwife]

Lynch am

For making me think about statistics this early in the morning

You say this, yet you liked my posts about them. You can't deny your true feelings meats...

 

[vetmedhead]

You say this, yet you liked my posts about them. You can't deny your true feelings meats...

You caught me, I am a huge statistics nerd.

But I hate having to crunch those numbers every time I have data because data never want to be easy for me. Maybe I should lynch data instead?

 

[CoffeeQuestionMark]

I agree; AM, your math is terrible.
The chance of her being a wolf is equivalent to whatever ratio of wolves is at play. Which, in general is 20-25% wolves and for every game where this is true this is the chance of being a wolf.

 

[muttmanager]

Ugh - Can we not start with bad math again?

 

[Animal Midwife]

I agree; AM, your math is terrible.
The chance of her being a wolf is equivalent to whatever ratio of wolves is at play. Which, in general is 20-25% wolves and for every game where this is true this is the chance of being a wolf.

So everyone has a minimum 20% chance of being a wolf equaling a grand total of 580%?

 

[Animal Midwife]

Ugh - Can we not start with bad math again?View attachment 250336

What would you like to talk about instead?

 

[killerleaf]

###unlynch ziggyzaggy###
###lynch statistics###

 

[PippyPony]

Day 1 Aaaand they're off! Lynch Tally

Lupin (1) - genny
Mel (2) - Cray, Karabeans
Kara (1) - Snowy
Weim (1) - AM
Cray (1) - zigjazz
Capri (1) - skim
Dina (2) - Barks, WZ
SAR (1) - Coffee?
Coffee? (1) - shelter
Zigjazz () -
AM (1) - Meats
statistics (1) - killer

12/29 voting

Lynch close at 9pm CST (11 hrs remaining)

 

[CoffeeQuestionMark]

So everyone has a minimum 20% chance of being a wolf equaling a grand total of 580%?

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.

 

[SARdoghandler]

Dnag all my grudge/easy shiggles votes are already taken. I didn't want to have to use my brain after that hour and a half commute I just executed to be late for class

 

[Animal Midwife]

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.

Which is why the number is at 3.45%. Doesn't work with anything higher at this point.

 

[SARdoghandler]

Dnag

Apparently my fingers are still frozen from the -35 too lol

 

[CoffeeQuestionMark]

Which is why the number is at 3.45%. Doesn't work with anything higher at this point.

No, if it was at 3.45%, using your method... that makes 96.55% chance of being a villager... wanna multiply that by 29 too??? Then also everyone would be a villager.

 

[CoffeeQuestionMark]

If assuming ~~4-6/29 are wolves. You have a 23-25/29 odds of being a villager and 4-6/29 of being a wolf.

 

[WildZoo]

Can we like
Stop this
Please

 

[Animal Midwife]

No, if it was at 3.45%, using your method... that makes 96.55% chance of being a villager... wanna multiply that by 29 too??? Then also everyone would be a villager.

There is a 96.55% chance of someone being a villager. And that's exactly why serious RNG voting is bad long-term. Other things have to be manually factored in to increase accuracy.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Can we like
Stop this
Please

but it's funny

 

[WildZoo]

but it's funny

There's a 100% chance I will vote for the next person to post about statistics