Unofficial Day 1 Aaaand they're off! Lynch Tally Lupin () - Mel (2) - Cray, Karabeans Kara (1) - Snowy Weim (1) - AM Cray () - Capri (2) - skim, genny Dina (1) - Barks SAR (1) - Coffee? Coffee? (2) - shelter, bryndi Zigjazz (3) - dolphin, dina, Gwen AM (3) - Meats, WZ, capri statistics (2) - killer, Mel killer (2) - Lupin, SAR Shelter (1) - ziggy 19/29 voting Lynch close at 9pm CST (5.5 hrs remaining)
Yeah, I read it. It just seemed weird to me to come up with another "not strong" reason to vote for someone when you were covering up the actual "not strong" reason. Statistics and rng don't bother me individually but the first part was what was weird to me. I understand the struggle to find a solid reason for a D1 vote (hence rng, grudge votes, nonsensical votes, etc..)
First day talk, lots of votes thrown out with no thought behind them, some people stating they're voting basked on rng, other people stating that's dumb/they shouldn't do it, normal shiz
No one really believes their reasoning in the RVS (random voting stage). Maybe throwing too much shade that someone offered some sort of reason, one I find somewhat reasonable, for their D1 lynch vote? And then you did vote here, you voted killerleaf, further spreading votes today. We've started something of a tradition now where people give a reason, even a crappy one, to go with any lynch vote. It's a good thing. Yes, D1 we go after people for those BS reasons, and maybe that's what you're doing here. I would give you village points for stirring the pot D1 as it tends to help make true data points from people's reactions. Maybe the wolf question mark belongs next to your name though... What kind of reasoning is this? I will never understand how this works. Mel is the wolf mastermind sketchiest player of them all. Q: If you flip a coin forever, are you guaranteed to eventually flip an equal number of heads and tails? How can there be any probability of finding the molecules clustered in half of the box,the other being empty? This totally gets into statistical mechanics and the fact the universe exists. None of which I remember well, but basically any outcome, no matter how unlikely, will be observed over time as time approaches infinity. You observe one mole of gas molecules that act as an ideal gas, in a given volume box. There are a number of ways those gas molecules can be arranged in space inside that box. Say, there's million configurations (it's higher than that), and there's only one configuration where ALL the molecules are all bunched up in one half of the box, leaving half the box an empty vacuum!! This CAN and WILL happen on its own, if you just watch the box long enough. What happens, is that the other almost 1 million configurations (in our fake numbers here) have more spread out configurations (due to some other physics stuff). So what you observe moment to moment of those configurations is essentially an average of configurations where they are spread out. That is how it appears. The numbers when you do statistical analysis also are different depending on if you are able to tell the gas molecules apart or not, so AM isn't pulling this concept from nowhere. What should be gleaned from the coin flipping idea, is that basically anything that is possible, even if not probable, will be observed in a statistical set if you just watch long enough/do it long enough. So because of all of this, even if someone isn't a wolf like 1000 times, then yes, eventually they will be a wolf if they play enough (I won't get into how the probability approaches 100% but theoretically isn't 100%, I've seen some other proofs for other things that suggest with eternity it would be a sure thing). Each individual statistical event randed is not more or less likely, that is, the likelihood from a past game doesn't affect this game. HOWEVER, if you look at how many times we play together as a set, the likelihood you will observe someone as a wolf, does approach 100%. If we played enough times, you could see the same person be a wolf 100 times in a row if you just play enough games. So there isn't such a thing as being "overdue" to be a wolf if one hasn't been, or more likely this game versus last game, however, it wouldn't be inaccurate to say that it's a "matter of time." Some people's votes are gambling on that. Ideally we want to play better than random chance, but D1 it isn't unreasonable in my view to play that way. Chances are we will play a million games if the forces of the universe allow. In which case the logic "they haven't been a wolf yet" will eventually pay off by random chance if not for that reason. Right wolf wrong reason.
Yeah I agree and understand the logic, it's like when someone is a wolf for three games in a row. The chance that they are a wolf in that particular game is still 1/5 if there is a 4:1 ratio of village:wolves, but the chance that they are a wolf for those three games in a row is 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 which is 0.8%. Improbable, but possible. I understand the "matter of time" logic, but what I said in the beginning of my last post was more of what was odd to me.
well when you're ready to get serious I look forward to your thoughts I know day 1 is a day of jokes and all but by this time, you (general you, not specific you) should be able to vote for an actual person
Colorado right? I was waiting to see if she'd get just as pissy if I ignored/messed with her this time.
lol, well if you think that then why don't you back it up? I can be crazy serious as a villager too. Especially when I'm not hindered by my role and have freedom to wolf hunt however I please
Don’t get too excited, I’m deep in three weeks of exams with a side of two broken vehicles, so I’m only doing my best
I'm sure you'd find a way to respond without continuing the math conversation if you were really opposed to the math conversation btw, why did you choose koffee from all the ones that were speaking math?
Seriously, can you all STOP IT with the statistics talk?!? I was going to go into why some of you are wrong, but I don't want to perpetuate the topic any longer. Also, I don't really like the zig or AM votes right now. Not that either (or both) can't be wolves, but I don't like the reasoning for zig, and if AM is village, she's useful to keep around for a while/not someone I want to see lynched d1.
Yup, every sentence of cray's post killed me a little inside, so I responded and brought it back around to the logic of my post about killer. I voted coffee because ziggy and AM aren't coming off as wolfy to me rn
Kara's a question mark. I agree with cray that mel is always the wolf mastermind sketchiest player. I don't see killer's comment as sketchy. I think bj's comment about her was weird, but it was even weirder she didn't vote for her. Moose gave me slight feels. This is the second game coffee propagated a discussion on statistics so she's a stats nerd. Everyone else I don't have opinions on. And your math is very off.
I thought there was a lynch vote in the above post, I was wrong but still not a fan of the argument presented here. Why not bring similar comments up to everyone who made a joke vote today?
uhh talking about killer. I didn't even know who was on her.... Not out of character for SAR vote. And Lupin doesn't play enough to know whos new or not.
Jeez, calm down, I thought we were still in that joke-vote stage. I always end up changing my D1 vote before close and when I don't, I have an actual reason to believe that person is sketchy. To answer Kara's question, I don't quite know yet but I'll let you know. I just got out of class and I might reread some things.
Oh and slightly off topic: I forgot you were playing and not modding this game so I thought you were tagging me in a tally and I was just like "ah great just what I need " lol
Day 1 Aaaand they're off! Lynch Tally Lupin () - Mel (1) - Cray Kara () - Weim (1) - AM Cray () - Capri (3) - skim, genny, Dubz Dina (1) - Barks SAR (1) - Coffee? Coffee? (2) - shelter, bryndi Zigjazz (3) - dolphin, dina, Gwen AM (1) - capri statistics/math (3) - killer, Mel, miranda killer (2) - Lupin, SAR Shelter (1) - ziggy Bryndi (3) - Karabeans, meats, snowy 19/29 voting @capri1722 @ziggyandjazzy @bryndiana.jones you are tied for first! Missing: @muttmanager @SkiOtter @Melchizedek@Crayola227 @cubsrule4e@MSUcvmHOPE@Mad Jack@Stagg737@Miranda Senft@killerleaf@WeimMama Lynch close at 9pm CST (3 hrs remaining)
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