HoWWrses: Game Thread

Discussion in 'Pre-Veterinary' started by SportPonies, Feb 10, 2019.

  1. Melchizedek

    Melchizedek Fastest Draw To WW
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    you're right, I guess I should get serious too

    unlynch Paws
    lynch Statistics
     
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  2. killerleaf

    killerleaf beware, beyond there be dragons
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    bryndi--please read my explanation to ziggy.
     
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  3. Animal Midwife

    Animal Midwife perpetually confused
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    Unofficial Day 1 Aaaand they're off! Lynch Tally

    Lupin () -
    Mel (2) - Cray, Karabeans
    Kara (1) - Snowy
    Weim (1) - AM
    Cray () -
    Capri (2) - skim, genny
    Dina (1) - Barks
    SAR (1) - Coffee?
    Coffee? (2) - shelter, bryndi
    Zigjazz (3) - dolphin, dina, Gwen
    AM (3) - Meats, WZ, capri
    statistics (2) - killer, Mel
    killer (2) - Lupin, SAR
    Shelter (1) - ziggy

    19/29 voting

    Lynch close at 9pm CST (5.5 hrs remaining)

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. StayingPositive2017

    StayingPositive2017 Michigan State CVM c/o 2022

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    *****
    Do I mean nothing to you?
    *****
     
  5. Animal Midwife

    Animal Midwife perpetually confused
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    I don't want to see your name as a potential candidate.
     
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  6. bryndiana.jones

    bryndiana.jones MWU c/o 2022

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    Yeah, I read it. It just seemed weird to me to come up with another "not strong" reason to vote for someone when you were covering up the actual "not strong" reason. Statistics and rng don't bother me individually but the first part was what was weird to me. I understand the struggle to find a solid reason for a D1 vote (hence rng, grudge votes, nonsensical votes, etc..)
     
  7. SARdoghandler

    SARdoghandler something something legend
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    You're really giving my spreadsheet grief today
     
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  8. Miranda Senft

    Miranda Senft Cornell CVM C/O 2022

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    How about we just lynch math in general?
    Lynch math
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Animal Midwife

    Animal Midwife perpetually confused
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    Do you have thoughts on the thread in general?
     
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  10. Miranda Senft

    Miranda Senft Cornell CVM C/O 2022

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    First day talk, lots of votes thrown out with no thought behind them, some people stating they're voting basked on rng, other people stating that's dumb/they shouldn't do it, normal shiz
     
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  11. Animal Midwife

    Animal Midwife perpetually confused
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    Anyone seem wolfy or villagey?
     
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  12. Crayola227

    Crayola227 Warrior Princess
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    No one really believes their reasoning in the RVS (random voting stage).

    Maybe throwing too much shade that someone offered some sort of reason, one I find somewhat reasonable, for their D1 lynch vote? And then you did vote here, you voted killerleaf, further spreading votes today.

    We've started something of a tradition now where people give a reason, even a crappy one, to go with any lynch vote. It's a good thing. Yes, D1 we go after people for those BS reasons, and maybe that's what you're doing here.

    I would give you village points for stirring the pot D1 as it tends to help make true data points from people's reactions. Maybe the wolf question mark belongs next to your name though...

    What kind of reasoning is this?

    I will never understand how this works. Mel is the wolf mastermind sketchiest player of them all.

    Q: If you flip a coin forever, are you guaranteed to eventually flip an equal number of heads and tails?

    How can there be any probability of finding the molecules clustered in half of the box,the other being empty?

    This totally gets into statistical mechanics and the fact the universe exists. None of which I remember well, but basically any outcome, no matter how unlikely, will be observed over time as time approaches infinity.

    You observe one mole of gas molecules that act as an ideal gas, in a given volume box. There are a number of ways those gas molecules can be arranged in space inside that box. Say, there's million configurations (it's higher than that), and there's only one configuration where ALL the molecules are all bunched up in one half of the box, leaving half the box an empty vacuum!! This CAN and WILL happen on its own, if you just watch the box long enough. What happens, is that the other almost 1 million configurations (in our fake numbers here) have more spread out configurations (due to some other physics stuff). So what you observe moment to moment of those configurations is essentially an average of configurations where they are spread out. That is how it appears.

    The numbers when you do statistical analysis also are different depending on if you are able to tell the gas molecules apart or not, so AM isn't pulling this concept from nowhere.

    What should be gleaned from the coin flipping idea, is that basically anything that is possible, even if not probable, will be observed in a statistical set if you just watch long enough/do it long enough.

    So because of all of this, even if someone isn't a wolf like 1000 times, then yes, eventually they will be a wolf if they play enough (I won't get into how the probability approaches 100% but theoretically isn't 100%, I've seen some other proofs for other things that suggest with eternity it would be a sure thing). Each individual statistical event randed is not more or less likely, that is, the likelihood from a past game doesn't affect this game. HOWEVER, if you look at how many times we play together as a set, the likelihood you will observe someone as a wolf, does approach 100%. If we played enough times, you could see the same person be a wolf 100 times in a row if you just play enough games.

    So there isn't such a thing as being "overdue" to be a wolf if one hasn't been, or more likely this game versus last game, however, it wouldn't be inaccurate to say that it's a "matter of time."

    Some people's votes are gambling on that. Ideally we want to play better than random chance, but D1 it isn't unreasonable in my view to play that way. Chances are we will play a million games if the forces of the universe allow. In which case the logic "they haven't been a wolf yet" will eventually pay off by random chance if not for that reason. Right wolf wrong reason.
     
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  13. ziggyandjazzy

    ziggyandjazzy Oregon State c/o 2022

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    ?? Why lol
     
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  14. bryndiana.jones

    bryndiana.jones MWU c/o 2022

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    Yeah I agree and understand the logic, it's like when someone is a wolf for three games in a row. The chance that they are a wolf in that particular game is still 1/5 if there is a 4:1 ratio of village:wolves, but the chance that they are a wolf for those three games in a row is 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 which is 0.8%. Improbable, but possible. I understand the "matter of time" logic, but what I said in the beginning of my last post was more of what was odd to me.
     
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  15. Karabiner13

    Karabiner13 Ohio State c/o 2018
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    well when you're ready to get serious I look forward to your thoughts

    I know day 1 is a day of jokes and all but by this time, you (general you, not specific you) should be able to vote for an actual person
     
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  16. Karabiner13

    Karabiner13 Ohio State c/o 2018
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    lol when you said this earlier

    unlynch mel
    lynch bryndy

    feeling good about am and zigzag
     
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  17. Karabiner13

    Karabiner13 Ohio State c/o 2018
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    I didn't realize @Gwenevre was playing :hello:

    Look forward to your thoughts
     
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  18. Miranda Senft

    Miranda Senft Cornell CVM C/O 2022

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    tbh the last time you were this crazy serious on day 1 was when I wolfed with you...
     
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  19. Melchizedek

    Melchizedek Fastest Draw To WW
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    Colorado right? I was waiting to see if she'd get just as pissy if I ignored/messed with her this time.
     
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  20. Karabiner13

    Karabiner13 Ohio State c/o 2018
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    lol, well if you think that then why don't you back it up?

    I can be crazy serious as a villager too. Especially when I'm not hindered by my role and have freedom to wolf hunt however I please :D
     
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  21. Gwenevre

    Gwenevre Research Pig Chick
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    Don’t get too excited, I’m deep in three weeks of exams with a side of two broken vehicles, so I’m only doing my best
     
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  22. bryndiana.jones

    bryndiana.jones MWU c/o 2022

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    Do you propose I ignore cray, or maybe I should answer with a simple "okay cool"?
     
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  23. Miranda Senft

    Miranda Senft Cornell CVM C/O 2022

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    ok
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Karabiner13

    Karabiner13 Ohio State c/o 2018
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    I'm sure you'd find a way to respond without continuing the math conversation if you were really opposed to the math conversation

    btw, why did you choose koffee from all the ones that were speaking math?
     
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  25. Skimble

    Skimble With Beans
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    Seriously, can you all STOP IT with the statistics talk?!? I was going to go into why some of you are wrong, but I don't want to perpetuate the topic any longer.

    Also, I don't really like the zig or AM votes right now. Not that either (or both) can't be wolves, but I don't like the reasoning for zig, and if AM is village, she's useful to keep around for a while/not someone I want to see lynched d1.
     
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  26. bryndiana.jones

    bryndiana.jones MWU c/o 2022

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    Yup, every sentence of cray's post killed me a little inside, so I responded and brought it back around to the logic of my post about killer. I voted coffee because ziggy and AM aren't coming off as wolfy to me rn
     
  27. Karabiner13

    Karabiner13 Ohio State c/o 2018
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    what about capri?
     
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  28. vetmedhead

    vetmedhead I hope my heart goes first!
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    Unlynch AM, Lynch bryndi

    Not a fan of the justification for the killerleaf vote
     
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  29. vetmedhead

    vetmedhead I hope my heart goes first!
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    If we were talking about odds, this conversation could be tangentially more related to horses :thinking:
     
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  30. bryndiana.jones

    bryndiana.jones MWU c/o 2022

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    She posted once about it
     
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  31. bryndiana.jones

    bryndiana.jones MWU c/o 2022

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    I'm not voting for killer
     
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  32. SnowshoeDog143

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    I come home from statistics class to this thread. What has ww become? :yawn:
     
  33. Animal Midwife

    Animal Midwife perpetually confused
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    What are your thoughts?
     
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  34. SnowshoeDog143

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    Unlynch kara

    lynch bryndi
     
  35. WildZoo

    WildZoo Illegal in all 50, Unlynchable Wolf
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    unlynch AM lynch capri
     
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  36. SnowshoeDog143

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    Kara's a question mark. I agree with cray that mel is always the wolf mastermind sketchiest player. I don't see killer's comment as sketchy. I think bj's comment about her was weird, but it was even weirder she didn't vote for her. Moose gave me slight feels. This is the second game coffee propagated a discussion on statistics so she's a stats nerd. Everyone else I don't have opinions on. And your math is very off.
     
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  37. Animal Midwife

    Animal Midwife perpetually confused
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    Which comment about killer was weird from bryndi? And how do you feel about capri?
     
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  38. SnowshoeDog143

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    And no feels on capri either way.
     
  39. Animal Midwife

    Animal Midwife perpetually confused
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    Anything on the killer voters?
     
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  40. vetmedhead

    vetmedhead I hope my heart goes first!
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    I thought there was a lynch vote in the above post, I was wrong but still not a fan of the argument presented here. Why not bring similar comments up to everyone who made a joke vote today?
     
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  41. SnowshoeDog143

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    noobs try to justify their rng votes all the time, not particularly wolfy to me.
     
  42. Animal Midwife

    Animal Midwife perpetually confused
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    Lupin's not a noob and neither is SAR.
     
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  43. vetmedhead

    vetmedhead I hope my heart goes first!
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    Where is @capri1722 ? I see a lot of likes but few posts from her that aren't outright joke posts
     
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  44. SnowshoeDog143

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    uhh talking about killer. I didn't even know who was on her.... Not out of character for SAR vote. And Lupin doesn't play enough to know whos new or not.
     
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  45. Animal Midwife

    Animal Midwife perpetually confused
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    @SkiOtter You coming to play at some point?
     
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  46. capri1722

    capri1722 c/o 2022

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    Jeez, calm down, I thought we were still in that joke-vote stage. :rolleyes: I always end up changing my D1 vote before close and when I don't, I have an actual reason to believe that person is sketchy.

    To answer Kara's question, I don't quite know yet but I'll let you know. I just got out of class and I might reread some things.
     
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  47. Animal Midwife

    Animal Midwife perpetually confused
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    What do you mean by it not being out of character for SAR?
     
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  48. capri1722

    capri1722 c/o 2022

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    Oh and slightly off topic: I forgot you were playing and not modding this game so I thought you were tagging me in a tally and I was just like "ah great just what I need :rolleyes:" lol
     
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  49. PippyPony

    PippyPony not a wolf
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    Day 1 Aaaand they're off! Lynch Tally

    Lupin () -
    Mel (1) - Cray
    Kara () -
    Weim (1) - AM
    Cray () -
    Capri (3) - skim, genny, Dubz
    Dina (1) - Barks
    SAR (1) - Coffee?
    Coffee? (2) - shelter, bryndi
    Zigjazz (3) - dolphin, dina, Gwen
    AM (1) - capri
    statistics/math (3) - killer, Mel, miranda
    killer (2) - Lupin, SAR
    Shelter (1) - ziggy
    Bryndi (3) - Karabeans, meats, snowy

    19/29 voting
    @capri1722 @ziggyandjazzy @bryndiana.jones you are tied for first!

    Missing: @muttmanager @SkiOtter @Melchizedek@Crayola227 @cubsrule4e@MSUcvmHOPE@Mad Jack@Stagg737@Miranda Senft@killerleaf@WeimMama

    Lynch close at 9pm CST (3 hrs remaining)

    [​IMG]
     
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  50. muttmanager

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    ###lynch killer###
    For starting a fake vote then disappearing.
     

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