Lessons Learned - Coronavirus Pandemic

[deleted915203]

We need to avoid repeating the mistakes from this coronavirus pandemic. In the future, the US should...

1. Be able to produce enough PPE / medical equipment (ventilators) / food for the entire nation for future epidemics / pandemics.
2. Have enough hospital / staff surge capacity for an epidemic / pandemic.
3. Anticipate that an epidemic could become a pandemic (WHO declares coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern on January 30th).
4. Prevent politics from interfering with infectious disease organizations / leaders (such as CDC)
5. Stop accepting flights / travel out of nations with infectious disease epidemics.
6. Institute stay-at-home orders early-on in epidemics / pandemics.
7. Support the use of PPE in public (facemasks)
8. Facilitate delivery / curb-side pick up of food / items from stores.
9. Be equipped for tele-working (employees) / tele-learning (students) at a moment's notice.
10. Adopt the philosophy of "safety is the top priority" and "better safe than sorry" (Instead, we had Mardi Gras (February 25th) after the WHO declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30th.)

Comments / feedback, please.

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[y2k_free_radical]

We need to avoid repeating the mistakes from this coronavirus pandemic. In the future, the US should...

1. Be able to produce enough PPE / medical equipment (ventilators) / food for the entire nation for future epidemics / pandemics.
2. Have enough hospital / staff surge capacity for an epidemic / pandemic.
3. Anticipate that an epidemic could become a pandemic (WHO declares coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern on January 30th).
4. Prevent politics from interfering with infectious disease organizations / leaders (such as CDC)
5. Stop accepting flights / travel out of nations with infectious disease epidemics.
6. Institute stay-at-home orders early-on in epidemics / pandemics.
7. Support the use of PPE in public (facemasks)
8. Facilitate delivery / curb-side pick up of food / items from stores.
9. Be equipped for tele-working (employees) / tele-learning (students) at a moment's notice.
10. Adopt the philosophy of "safety is the top priority" and "better safe than sorry" (Instead, we had Mardi Gras (February 25th) after the WHO declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30th.)

Comments / feedback, please.

View attachment 301048

We better be sure the cure doesn't foster more damage, such as this depression, and deaths than the disease

 

[LADoc00]

This is equivalent of building the Maginot line to stop a German advance, the next black swan will be totally different.

We need generally more resilient and self reliant human beings, not a patchwork plan to further coddle our weakness.

If you can take anything from this: the trend that huge human populations crowd themselves into massive hive cities with vast, daily worldwide travelers going in and out should totally die off.

Once dead bodies are rotting in the poor neighborhoods in NYC, hopefully the human race will realize such high density populations were bad idea to begin with and only continue to get worse.

 

[Alteran]

This is equivalent of building the Maginot line to stop a German advance, the next black swan will be totally different.

We need generally more resilient and self reliant human beings, not a patchwork plan to further coddle our weakness.

If you can take anything from this: the trend that huge human populations crowd themselves into massive hive cities with vast, daily worldwide travelers going in and out should totally die off.

Once dead bodies are rotting in the poor neighborhoods in NYC, hopefully the human race will realize such high density populations were bad idea to begin with and only continue to get worse.

We didn’t learn that lesson from the black death, which this eerily parallels, why would you think we’d learn it now?

 

[deleted314957]

We didn’t learn that lesson from the black death, which this eerily parallels, why would you think we’d learn it now?

There were a couple things we did not have a good handle back then.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[bauber]

We need generally more resilient and self reliant human beings, not a patchwork plan to further coddle our weakness.

That's so out of touch. We need plans and infrastructure.

"Be stronger" or "Be smarter" isn't a solution to anything and is never gonna happen. You have to see the world how it is and work from there not how you want or expect it to be.

 

[LADoc00]

That's so out of touch. We need plans and infrastructure.

"Be stronger" or "Be smarter" isn't a solution to anything and is never gonna happen. You have to see the world how it is and work from there not how you want or expect it to be.

Hahaha. Yes saying "be stronger be smarter" isnt really a plan for populations. BUT "plans and infrastructure" are things FYI WE ALREADY HAD.

That is the thing, we had them. We had mobile lab trailers in nearly every public health department district after 9/11 and threat of a biological attack was on the radar. We had contingencies. We had operating guidelines. We had procedures so incompetent Naval captains didnt send out distress communications for an entire carrier battle group over personal google mail and cc 2 dozen major news outlets!!!

We had all this stuff AND STILL FAILED.

This isnt out of touch: WE SUCK. We completely suck at a core inner level that no plan, no infrastructure and no blue ribbon fact finding political committee can ever fix.

The next black swan wont be a pandemic, we wont need ventilators, etc. It will be some different natural disaster where the "plan" will fail yet again. And what then? You will be perpetually behind the curve until all Western Democracies just collapse.

This is THE existential crisis the modern world: our current incredibly high standard of living was a very real and serious price, A price that will be paid every time the consumer supply chains break for any reason. A price paid when we have a breakdown of first responders, medical personnel and pharmacy. When the government and military fail.

When you live your life like my 7-year old daughter does by expecting an all knowing, all powerful parental figure to solve every problem, you are doomed and in the end get the very result you are owed.

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

Anyone got a plan in place when a supervolcano erupts? Large meteor from space? You can't plan for everything. We are in control of nothing so get used to it. There are mass extinctions in the earth's history. It will happen again.

 

[Dro133]

Hahaha. Yes saying "be stronger be smarter" isnt really a plan for populations. BUT "plans and infrastructure" are things FYI WE ALREADY HAD.

That is the thing, we had them. We had mobile lab trailers in nearly every public health department district after 9/11 and threat of a biological attack was on the radar. We had contingencies. We had operating guidelines. We had procedures so incompetent Naval captains didnt send out distress communications for an entire carrier battle group over personal google mail and cc 2 dozen major news outlets!!!

We had all this stuff AND STILL FAILED.

These ‘disease hunters’ developed a novel technique for tracking pandemics after 9/11, but lost funding right before COVID-19

'Gross misjudgment': Experts say Trump's decision to disband pandemic team hindered coronavirus response

I'm sure there are umpteenth examples of the way this crisis could have been handled better by our leadership; these are just two that I can think of off the top of my head, and I don't feel like spending a lot of time digging.

This narrative that we had the proper structures in place and that we did everything we could and that it doesn't matter who the leadership was is wrong, and most of all, incredibly dangerous. It suggests that we are powerless in controlling how these things go from this point forward. This is wrong. This crisis could have been managed better with more competent leadership, point blank. Social distancing could have happened sooner and would have flattened the curve more, leading to less loss of life. Stronger leadership from the executive branch could have pressured the CDC and FDA to get it's **** together with respect to testing more quickly. FFS, the president was claiming this was a "Democratic Hoax" as late as early-March -- you're telling me with more competent leadership in place, we couldn't have done a better job controlling this thing? That if Obama's pandemic response team wasn't still in place, we wouldn't be even a little bit more prepared to tackle this problem?

We need better leadership. We need better policies that support all citizens, not just society's wealthiest. What we don't need is defeatism and fatalism.

Edit: apologies if this comes across as overly emotional or argumentative. It just boils my blood when people suggest that what's going on right now was inevitable. Mistakes were made by the people in power that didn't have to be made, and likely wouldn't have been made if more competent people were in charge. Other countries have been able to have better responses than us, so clearly a response like ours is not inevitable.

 

[LADoc00]

These ‘disease hunters’ developed a novel technique for tracking pandemics after 9/11, but lost funding right before COVID-19

'Gross misjudgment': Experts say Trump's decision to disband pandemic team hindered coronavirus response

I'm sure there are umpteenth examples of the way this crisis could have been handled better by our leadership; these are just two that I can think of off the top of my head, and I don't feel like spending a lot of time digging.

This narrative that we had the proper structures in place and that we did everything we could and that it doesn't matter who the leadership was is wrong, and most of all, incredibly dangerous. It suggests that we are powerless in controlling how these things go from this point forward. This is wrong. This crisis could have been managed better with more competent leadership, point blank. Social distancing could have happened sooner and would have flattened the curve more, leading to less loss of life. Stronger leadership from the executive branch could have pressured the CDC and FDA to get it's **** together with respect to testing more quickly. FFS, the president was claiming this was a "Democratic Hoax" as late as early-March -- you're telling me with more competent leadership in place, we couldn't have done a better job controlling this thing? That if Obama's pandemic response team wasn't still in place, we wouldn't be even a little bit more prepared to tackle this problem?

We need better leadership. We need better policies that support all citizens, not just society's wealthiest. What we don't need is defeatism and fatalism.

Edit: apologies if this comes across as overly emotional or argumentative. It just boils my blood when people suggest that what's going on right now was inevitable. Mistakes were made by the people in power that didn't have to be made, and likely wouldn't have been made if more competent people were in charge. Other countries have been able to have better responses than us, so clearly a response like ours is not inevitable.

See this is what Im talking about, your biggest fail will always be your puerile reinforcement of your own echo chamber of reliance rather than resilience. "Support all citizens" by its very nature is absurd because one day I hope you will realize that all citizens are not rational actors like you or I.

Like somehow you if you had a better "Daddy and Mommy" the result would have been different right? Listen to yourself, you're a child. Do you have kids? They do the same thing. The same exact thing.

This is the OPPOSITE of asking what you can do for your country, it is a constant child-like insistence of what Daddy can do for you.

There is literally NOTHING Donald Trump could have done to impress those that hate him to begin with. He stopped travel from China, he was racist. He wanted to put a containment cordon around NYC, racist.

It's really tired now man, it's tired and totally counter productive. He is still going to handily win re-election even with the garbage state of the economy because the other party is now beyond useless, heck it will probably even fall apart after Nov. when Trump obliterates that other guy now no one can remember.

But one day I hope you realize you have to move beyond politics to grow at all. Well I hope..you can always hope.

What should "boil your blood" is that you are living a life of TOTAL DEPENDENCE on others, on politicians, on policy wonks. That should boil your blood because this aint over by any stretch. The worst is yet to come and I dont mean the virus deaths. This thing will have legs as it has now exposed all those swimming without clothes as the tide as gone out.

 

[deleted915203]

This is equivalent of building the Maginot line to stop a German advance, the next black swan will be totally different.

We need generally more resilient and self reliant human beings, not a patchwork plan to further coddle our weakness.

If you can take anything from this: the trend that huge human populations crowd themselves into massive hive cities with vast, daily worldwide travelers going in and out should totally die off.

Once dead bodies are rotting in the poor neighborhoods in NYC, hopefully the human race will realize such high density populations were bad idea to begin with and only continue to get worse.

To me, a person that has a large supply of PPE is self-reliant - but some might say they are a hoarder.

I think that the concept of "hoarding" needs to be clarified. To me, there is nothing wrong with an individual who has collected PPE over the years in case of an emergency. I am also not sure what the threshold is for hoarding. Does Bill Gates hoard money???

Then, there is the concept of price-gouging, which can be illegal. You can price-gouge without being a hoarder.

In my view, a person who collects (or hoards) supplies is acceptable... and I think it is legal. However, price-gouging can be illegal depending on laws.

 

[Guest8]

Daily life for humans in the modern age requires interaction with innumerable other humans whether you live in a huge city or not. Sure, an infectious pandemic affects cities the most. Other global catastrophes that haven't occurred yet could affect rural areas the most, who knows. I won't be moving out of the city because of Covid-19. As it is the city offers me the ability to have pretty much everything I could need delivered right to my doorstep with minimal human interaction during this.

 

[octopusprime]

Hahaha. Yes saying "be stronger be smarter" isnt really a plan for populations. BUT "plans and infrastructure" are things FYI WE ALREADY HAD.

That is the thing, we had them. We had mobile lab trailers in nearly every public health department district after 9/11 and threat of a biological attack was on the radar. We had contingencies. We had operating guidelines. We had procedures so incompetent Naval captains didnt send out distress communications for an entire carrier battle group over personal google mail and cc 2 dozen major news outlets!!!

We had all this stuff AND STILL FAILED.

This isnt out of touch: WE SUCK. We completely suck at a core inner level that no plan, no infrastructure and no blue ribbon fact finding political committee can ever fix.

The next black swan wont be a pandemic, we wont need ventilators, etc. It will be some different natural disaster where the "plan" will fail yet again. And what then? You will be perpetually behind the curve until all Western Democracies just collapse.

This is THE existential crisis the modern world: our current incredibly high standard of living was a very real and serious price, A price that will be paid every time the consumer supply chains break for any reason. A price paid when we have a breakdown of first responders, medical personnel and pharmacy. When the government and military fail.

When you live your life like my 7-year old daughter does by expecting an all knowing, all powerful parental figure to solve every problem, you are doomed and in the end get the very result you are owed.

wait...........you have children? .....or is this a metaphorical child?...

 

[Adrian Cocot]

Black swans, by definition, are unpredictable and unexpected. A Covid pandemic was predicted and modeled years ago by the Pentagon, so that doesn't fit. If anything, the black swan here is the incompetent response led by people who didn't act rationally, as expected, even though they had prepared action plans under their noses.

Anyways, some lessons learned:

Lesson 1: Covid is the best recent example of the tragedy of the commons, and goes a long way to reveal Libertarianism as an ideology that works in theory but not real life.

Lesson 2: Vote as if your life depended on it, because it will.

Lesson 3: Even educated people fall succumb to crowd psychology.

Lesson 4: Don't put a businessman in charge of a public health effort.

 

[Dro133]

Black swans, by definition, are unpredictable and unexpected. A Covid pandemic was predicted and modeled years ago by the Pentagon, so that doesn't fit. If anything, the black swan here is the incompetent response led by people who didn't act rationally, as expected, even though they had prepared action plans under their noses.

Anyways, some lessons learned:

Lesson 1: Covid is the best recent example of the tragedy of the commons, and goes a long way to reveal Libertarianism as an ideology that works in theory but not real life.

Lesson 2: Vote as if your life depended on it, because it will.

Lesson 3: Even educated people fall succumb to crowd psychology.

Lesson 4: Don't put a businessman in charge of a public health effort.

This.

Not to mention, the biggest existential threat to humanity is climate change. How does the GOP candidate feel about climate change? Some highlights:

"Trump has repeatedly questioned the science of climate change, expressing doubts about whether human activity is responsible. He has advocated for expanded domestic fossil fuel production and has pushed for rolling back environmental regulations implemented by his predecessors.

- Soon after taking office, he announced the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate, in which nearly two hundred countries agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The United States’ withdrawal is set to take effect in 2020.
- He directed his Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to rescind the Obama-era Clean Power Plan, a regulation that would have required states to move away from coal-based power plants. His budgets have repeatedly tried to slash EPA funding by nearly a third.
- He has spearheaded a broad reduction in environmental regulation, rolling back nearly eighty separate regulations. These include requirements to reduce methane emissions, factor carbon emissions into federal decision-making, and limit pollutants from fracking.
- He is seeking to weaken industry-wide automobile fuel-efficiency standards implemented under Obama, including by withdrawing a waiver that lets California and other states apply stricter standards."

And that's just a few. It absolutely matters who we elect to lead our government. It will have a direct impact on our lives as well as the lives of future generations going forward. It will have a direct impact on the number of and response to crises such as the one we are currently facing.

 

[Unty]

This.

Not to mention, the biggest existential threat to humanity is climate change. How does the GOP candidate feel about climate change? Some highlights:

"Trump has repeatedly questioned the science of climate change, expressing doubts about whether human activity is responsible. He has advocated for expanded domestic fossil fuel production and has pushed for rolling back environmental regulations implemented by his predecessors.

- Soon after taking office, he announced the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate, in which nearly two hundred countries agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The United States’ withdrawal is set to take effect in 2020.
- He directed his Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to rescind the Obama-era Clean Power Plan, a regulation that would have required states to move away from coal-based power plants. His budgets have repeatedly tried to slash EPA funding by nearly a third.
- He has spearheaded a broad reduction in environmental regulation, rolling back nearly eighty separate regulations. These include requirements to reduce methane emissions, factor carbon emissions into federal decision-making, and limit pollutants from fracking.
- He is seeking to weaken industry-wide automobile fuel-efficiency standards implemented under Obama, including by withdrawing a waiver that lets California and other states apply stricter standards."

And that's just a few. It absolutely matters who we elect to lead our government. It will have a direct impact on our lives as well as the lives of future generations going forward. It will have a direct impact on the number of and response to crises such as the one we are currently facing.

yup if we ignore climate change, sh%t will happen to us just like it’s happening now

 

[y2k_free_radical]

Black swans, by definition, are unpredictable and unexpected. A Covid pandemic was predicted and modeled years ago by the Pentagon, so that doesn't fit. If anything, the black swan here is the incompetent response led by people who didn't act rationally, as expected, even though they had prepared action plans under their noses.

Anyways, some lessons learned:

Lesson 1: Covid is the best recent example of the tragedy of the commons, and goes a long way to reveal Libertarianism as an ideology that works in theory but not real life.

Lesson 2: Vote as if your life depended on it, because it will.

Lesson 3: Even educated people fall succumb to crowd psychology.

Lesson 4: Don't put a businessman in charge of a public health effort.

Don't let a zealous physician control the nations economy or the cure will be more deadly than the disease.

 

[StatistPriceControlsFail]

Climate-related deaths (from extreme heat, cold, storms, drought, floods, etc) are at an all-time low, have decreased with every decade since the 1930s (i.e. since the widespread use of fossil fuel energy processes), and are down over 99% from their 1930 levels.

"The year 2013, with 29,404 reported deaths, had 99.4 percent fewer climate-related deaths than the historic record year of 1932, which had 5,073,283 reported deaths for the same category."

The One Statistic Climate Catastrophists Don't Want You to Know

Alex Epstein is President and Founder of the Center for Industrial Progress—an organization sowing the seeds of energy enthusiasm to counter the tide of climate alarmism—to share a few thoughts with our readers here at Cato; find them below.

www.cato.org

Does this dramatic decrease in actual deaths from the climate matter at all? Even a little? Or should I focus only on hysterical predictions from people who have a track record of making accurate predictions of catastrophe with exactly 0% success?

Authorities can have bad thinking methods. Journalists, politicians, and really smart people can have bad thinking methods. A popular idea is not necessarily a true idea. Ask Semmelweis.

 

[gbwillner]

Climate-related deaths (from extreme heat, cold, storms, drought, floods, etc) are at an all-time low, have decreased with every decade since the 1930s (i.e. since the widespread use of fossil fuel energy processes), and are down over 99% from their 1930 levels.

"The year 2013, with 29,404 reported deaths, had 99.4 percent fewer climate-related deaths than the historic record year of 1932, which had 5,073,283 reported deaths for the same category."

The One Statistic Climate Catastrophists Don't Want You to Know

Alex Epstein is President and Founder of the Center for Industrial Progress—an organization sowing the seeds of energy enthusiasm to counter the tide of climate alarmism—to share a few thoughts with our readers here at Cato; find them below.

www.cato.org

Does this dramatic decrease in actual deaths from the climate matter at all? Even a little? Or should I focus only on hysterical predictions from people who have a track record of making accurate predictions of catastrophe with exactly 0% success?

Authorities can have bad thinking methods. Journalists, politicians, and really smart people can have bad thinking methods. A popular idea is not necessarily a true idea. Ask Semmelweis.

Nice Straw man argument you got there.

 

[Allegri]

Does this dramatic decrease in actual deaths from the climate matter at all? Even a little?

No

 

[y2k_free_radical]

These ‘disease hunters’ developed a novel technique for tracking pandemics after 9/11, but lost funding right before COVID-19

'Gross misjudgment': Experts say Trump's decision to disband pandemic team hindered coronavirus response

I'm sure there are umpteenth examples of the way this crisis could have been handled better by our leadership; these are just two that I can think of off the top of my head, and I don't feel like spending a lot of time digging.

This narrative that we had the proper structures in place and that we did everything we could and that it doesn't matter who the leadership was is wrong, and most of all, incredibly dangerous. It suggests that we are powerless in controlling how these things go from this point forward. This is wrong. This crisis could have been managed better with more competent leadership, point blank. Social distancing could have happened sooner and would have flattened the curve more, leading to less loss of life. Stronger leadership from the executive branch could have pressured the CDC and FDA to get it's **** together with respect to testing more quickly. FFS, the president was claiming this was a "Democratic Hoax" as late as early-March -- you're telling me with more competent leadership in place, we couldn't have done a better job controlling this thing? That if Obama's pandemic response team wasn't still in place, we wouldn't be even a little bit more prepared to tackle this problem?

We need better leadership. We need better policies that support all citizens, not just society's wealthiest. What we don't need is defeatism and fatalism.

Edit: apologies if this comes across as overly emotional or argumentative. It just boils my blood when people suggest that what's going on right now was inevitable. Mistakes were made by the people in power that didn't have to be made, and likely wouldn't have been made if more competent people were in charge. Other countries have been able to have better responses than us, so clearly a response like ours is not inevitable.

The democrats yelled xenophobia and racism on stopped flights and wanted open borders.The N95 masks were not replenished after the H1NI flu scare in 2010.The CHINESE government and WHO said all was under control in JANUARY and early FEBRUARY.NEW YORK did not purchase 15,000 respirators for which money had been allocated.The CHINESE cover up hide the infectivity and lethality of the bio engineered WUHAN VIRUS.Locking down an economy has serious side affects.Faucci models of death have moved from 5,000,000 deaths to 80,000.CDC and FDA FUBARRED in the test development.Now everyone has 20/20 hindsight.There is enough fault on all around.

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

"Experts" have been all over the map. Even Fauci was saying the virus wasn't anything to worry about in late January.

There is fault all around but who cares. Can't prepare for everything. The herd gets thinned from time to time.

 

[Allegri]

"Even Fauci was saying the virus wasn't anything to worry about in late January."

Do you have a quote?

This anti-intellectual narrative of experts being no better than anyone else is problematic.

 

[Unty]

"Even Fauci was saying the virus wasn't anything to worry about in late January."

Do you have a quote?

This anti-intellectual narrative of experts being no better than anyone else is problematic.

Yeah I don’t think an infectious disease expert would say such a thing.

 

[octopusprime]

Yeah I don’t think an infectious disease expert would say such a thing.

ok well a simple google search clarifies that:

“This is not a major threat to the people of the United States and this is not something that the citizens of the United States should be worried about right now,” Dr. Fauci told Newsmax’s Greg Kelly on January 21.

 

[octopusprime]

No amount of preparation would have prevented this virus from existing and spreading across the globe--politicians cannot prevent pandemics, and it's extremely naive to operate under the assumption that relinquishing individual liberty en mass to an enlightened benevolent dictator with all-encompassing power would have guaranteed a different outcome--hindsight is always 20/20 because we forgot how little information we had at the time, or how optimistic we were. This is not an argument in favor of Trump as a person, I honestly can't stand the guy and his incessant erroneous and/or annoying Tweets.


But it's just rubbish to claim "libertarianism" is what did us in or that a different president would have "saved us" from the scenarios of New York or New Orleans or Detroit...the US was DRAMATICALLY different even 30 days ago, access your short-term memory bank...it would have been draconian to completely shut down the economy March 6th...there were 280 cases in the US, only a few deaths in Washington state...there were 197 deaths in Italy, 4600 confirmed cases... let's not ignore economic realities (and repercussions), let alone the logistics, of what you think we should have done.

What country had the appropriate response? China? Germany? The entire world is being affected by this virus...perhaps countries like Germany are seeing less deaths, which from a distance is commendable, but they're also 1/4 our population and 1/28th our size and not comprised of 50 autonomous states that have widely different demographics, population densities, economies, etc.

Speaking of which: what prevented individual governors from embracing their enlightened sense of impending doom and enacting severe restrictions earlier? Governors have broad authority over transportation, business closures, even the National Guard--there some reason Cuomo didn't walk-the-walk and go all out Orwellian/Don Pleasence "Escape from NY" level of lockdown?

Look back to Feb...WIRED is not a serious "news outlet", but it's not exactly the Heritage Foundation...

Could the US Contain a Coronavirus Outbreak?

The World Health Organization has urged other nations to learn from China's handling of the Covid-19 epidemic. But would an aggressive quarantine work here?

www.wired.com

Anyone who has spent time in the military knows that the best laid plans of mice & men often go awry, and the military is a microcosm of perfectly centralized planning with "experts". There's always gotta be a fall guy, and Trump will probably fit the bill for this one, particularly in an election year, but let's not kid ourselves that a pandemic exposes the inherent flaw with constitutional democracy and that Bernie's vision for America would prevent these kinds of things in a gulag archipelago.

 

[Allegri]

Thanks for the Fauci citation. I would not claim that "libertarianism did us in." I also understand the complex realities of the economy and even understand Trump's tendency toward positive spin. It is also not possible to understand exactly what policies are having what kind of an effect because this is not a controlled experiment. But... does it really have to be either Trump or Bernie? Isn't there a reasonable approach that acknowledges expertise and honestly confronts the problem taking into account the best we can from science, while also acknowledging its limitations? That's all I want. Not all opinions are of equal value. The anti-science, anti-knowledge thing is literally what drove me out of the Republican party in 2008.

 

[y2k_free_radical]

Thanks for the Fauci citation. I would not claim that "libertarianism did us in." I also understand the complex realities of the economy and even understand Trump's tendency toward positive spin. It is also not possible to understand exactly what policies are having what kind of an effect because this is not a controlled experiment. But... does it really have to be either Trump or Bernie? Isn't there a reasonable approach that acknowledges expertise and honestly confronts the problem taking into account the best we can from science, while also acknowledging its limitations? That's all I want. Not all opinions are of equal value. The anti-science, anti-knowledge thing is literally what drove me out of the Republican party in 2008.

In the 1970s TIME MAGAZINE and others said we would all perish from global cooling.Even if we are warming what was the CO2 level in 1000 AD when GREENLAND was actually green ???????????????????????????????Nature seems to have complex warming and cooling cycles.

 

[Allegri]

A discussion on scientifically relevant issues based on data would be great. Teaching creationism in schools as though it is science, or pushing the use of medicines based on instincts, not so much.

 

[deleted915203]

ok well a simple google search clarifies that:

“This is not a major threat to the people of the United States and this is not something that the citizens of the United States should be worried about right now,” Dr. Fauci told Newsmax’s Greg Kelly on January 21.

Full quote...

GREG KELLY: Bottom line. We don’t have to worry about this one right?

FAUCI: Well obviously we have to take it seriously and follow the things the CDC an DHS are doing but this is not a major threat to the people of the United States and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.

Tucker Carlson: Dr. Fauci Is Suggesting "National Suicide"

TUCKER CARLSON, FOX NEWS: The emergence of a new and dangerous form of coronavirus became known to the public outside China about three months ago. The first case in this country appeared on January 21. Since the middle of March, much of America has been locked down in response. We're three...

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[Adrian Cocot]

Anyone who has spent time in the military knows that the best laid plans of mice & men often go awry, and the military is a microcosm of perfectly centralized planning with "experts". There's always gotta be a fall guy, and Trump will probably fit the bill for this one, particularly in an election year, but let's not kid ourselves that a pandemic exposes the inherent flaw with constitutional democracy and that Bernie's vision for America would prevent these kinds of things in a gulag archipelago.

1. Nice straw man arguments you got there.

2. No matter how complex the project, the team leader is responsible. The Apprentice taught us that.

 

[octopusprime]

1. Nice straw man arguments you got there.

2. No matter how complex the project, the team leader is responsible. The Apprentice taught us that.

I'm not sure what is a "straw man" argument since you basically reiterated what I just said -- Trump will take the fall for this.

Defending your position by calling everything else a "straw man argument" is not a defense, it's a deflection. Do you know what a "straw man" argument is?

 

[Adrian Cocot]

I'm not sure what is a "straw man" argument since you basically reiterated what I just said -- Trump will take the fall for this.

I didn't opine on who will or won't "take the fall" here. I paraphrased an interview with Apprentice star Donald Trump.

Defending your position by calling everything else a "straw man argument" is not a defense, it's a deflection. Do you know what a "straw man" argument is?

Just so we're on the same page, I understand the strawman fallacy to be a form of argument "based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent."

So, when you say

But it's just rubbish to claim "libertarianism" is what did us in or that a different president would have "saved us" from the scenarios of New York or New Orleans or Detroit...

and

but let's not kid ourselves that a pandemic exposes the inherent flaw with constitutional democracy and that Bernie's vision for America would prevent these kinds of things in a gulag archipelago.

Those are straw men arguments, because a) nobody has claimed that in this thread, and b) you are ignoring the original point to make a false dichotomy instead.

 

[octopusprime]

...Lesson 1: Covid is the best recent example of the tragedy of the commons, and goes a long way to reveal Libertarianism as an ideology that works in theory but not real life.
...

nobody has claimed that in this thread.

Forget what you wrote there chief?

 

[octopusprime]

Person A suggests, among other things, that this whole situation lends weight to the claim libertarianism doesn't work in practice.

Person B, among other things, refutes said claim and suggests this situation does not undermine the libertarian ideology, and by logical extension assumes Person A would favor a form of government antithetical to libertarian ideals, an example of which would be the form embraced by [ex] US Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, hence obligating a tongue-in-cheek reference to Solzhenitsyn's work on the forced labor camps of the Soviet Union.

Person A forgets he implicated libertarianism and insists any critique of "lessons learned" not centered on claiming gross negligence and probably outright malfeasance on the part of the current administration is a 'straw man' argument.

But I digress. And I reiterate the underlined portion of my original post: what prevented individual governors from embracing their enlightened sense of impending doom and enacting severe restrictions earlier?
Not a rhetorical question--is there a reason? I underlined it for a reason [note: i did not underline my "straw man" defense of libertarianism].


[...<--note the bracket, it denotes an aside / tangent discussion... I hate defending Trump, because I genuinely cannot stand the man...if Biden is of sound mind I am more than likely going to vote for him if I don't vote throw my vote away with the Libertarian candidate de jour...but people are more than happy to confound any sort of legitimate assessment of the current situation with their disgust for Trump / administration. Again, not giving him a glowing endorsement or a "high pass"...but is it possible to ignore the annoying, inappropriate Tweets, the shallowness, the lack of statesmanship and complete absence of Presidential character...and just look at the situation? Do people honestly think things would have been that much different had Obama, Biden, anyone else been in the executive office?]

 

[deleted915203]

Washington (CNN) US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.

ABC News: US intelligence warned of China's spreading contagion in November

US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

www.cnn.com

Lessons Learned: Don't ignore US intelligence, which warned that the coronavirus could be "a cataclysmic event" in November! (US Intelligence ROCKS!)

 

[D1b()4]

Washington (CNN) US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.

ABC News: US intelligence warned of China's spreading contagion in November

US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

www.cnn.com

Lessons Learned: Don't ignore US intelligence, which warned that the coronavirus could be "a cataclysmic event" in November! (US Intelligence ROCKS!)

It rocks sometimes... What about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

I am curious how many other US intelligence predictions have failed to materialize, but we just don't know about those failed assessments.

 

[deleted915203]

It rocks sometimes... What about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

I am curious how many other US intelligence predictions have failed to materialize, but we just don't know about those failed assessments.

I wasn't thinking that far back. But, you are correct.

Changing the topic... how did you choose that username? Is it a keyboard shortcut?

 

[D1b()4]

Changing the topic... how did you choose that username? Is it a keyboard shortcut?

Just generated a random 6-character sequence on my password generator app. Apparently, my imagination is very limited, and I couldn't come up with a good username.

 

[bauber]

It rocks sometimes... What about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

I am curious how many other US intelligence predictions have failed to materialize, but we just don't know about those failed assessments.

WMDs in Iraq intelligence was manufactured to capitalize on anti-middle eastern sentiments brewing in the US since 9/11 and justify Bush and Cheney's illegal invasion.

"Bin Laden determined to strike in US" (August 2001) however was a prescient intelligence report that was seemingly ignored and has similar parallels to what is going on now.

 

[octopusprime]

Washington (CNN) US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.

Lessons Learned: Don't ignore US intelligence, which warned that the coronavirus could be "a cataclysmic event" in November! (US Intelligence ROCKS!)

Because US Intelligence is infallible! [insert obligatory reference to Iraq's massive WMD stockpile...].
"COULD BE" and "WILL BE" are vastly different things, particularly when discussing "intelligence".

 

[deleted915203]

Because US Intelligence is infallible! [insert obligatory reference to Iraq's massive WMD stockpile...].
"COULD BE" and "WILL BE" are vastly different things, particularly when discussing "intelligence".

I am impressed that US intelligence said (in November) that the coronavirus "could be a cataclysmic event".

I am sure that US Intelligence continued to update their forecasts after November.

Is anyone else impressed by US Intelligence... give a thumbs up if you are!

 

[D1b()4]

I am impressed that US intelligence said (in November) that the coronavirus "could be a cataclysmic event".

I am sure that US Intelligence continued to update their forecasts after November.

Is anyone else impressed by US Intelligence... give a thumbs up if you are!

This November report might be fake news to undermine president Trump. Here is an excerpt from a CNN article (US intelligence agencies started tracking coronavirus outbreak in China as early as November) with an official statement on the issue:

"As a matter of practice the National Center for Medical Intelligence does not comment publicly on specific intelligence matters. However, in the interest of transparency during this current public health crisis, we can confirm that media reporting about the existence/release of a National Center for Medical Intelligence Coronavirus-related product/assessment in November of 2019 is not correct. No such NCMI product exists," Colonel Dr. R. Shane Day, director of the National Center for Medical Intelligence, said.

Conclusion: ABC News = fake news

 

[deleted915203]

This November report might be fake news to undermine president Trump. Here is an excerpt from a CNN article (US intelligence agencies started tracking coronavirus outbreak in China as early as November) with an official statement on the issue:

"As a matter of practice the National Center for Medical Intelligence does not comment publicly on specific intelligence matters. However, in the interest of transparency during this current public health crisis, we can confirm that media reporting about the existence/release of a National Center for Medical Intelligence Coronavirus-related product/assessment in November of 2019 is not correct. No such NCMI product exists," Colonel Dr. R. Shane Day, director of the National Center for Medical Intelligence, said.

Conclusion: ABC News = fake news

Wow! Let's see how this plays out.

 

[gbwillner]

for once, the FAKE NEWS cry is actually true?????

 

[Adrian Cocot]

Forget what you wrote there chief?

Ugh, intentionally misleading via selective quoting and highlighting? Do better.

Person A suggests, among other things, that this whole situation lends weight to the claim libertarianism doesn't work in practice.

Person B, among other things, refutes said claim and suggests this situation does not undermine the libertarian ideology, and by logical extension assumes Person A would favor a form of government antithetical to libertarian ideals, an example of which would be the form embraced by US Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, hence obligating a tongue-in-cheek reference to Solzhenitsyn's work on the forced labor camps of the Soviet Union.

Person A forgets he implicated libertarianism and insists any critique of "lessons learned" not centered on claiming gross negligence and probably outright malfeasance on the part of the current administration is a 'straw man' argument

What, are we doing a Rashomon here? I can play along.

Person A posits that the tragedy of the commons problem is where libertarian ideology struggles with a real-world solution, and that the current worldwide pandemic is a good example of this.

Person B doesn't really refute anything -- unless one thinks that "but it's rubbish" is a legitimate counterpoint -- and instead a) makes assumptions about person A's political leanings and b) oversimplifies and misrepresents their statement, rather than addressing their argument.

Person A points out person B's logical fallacies. Person B doubles down and deflects, while still ignoring the original point.

Moving on, I can see that there's some confusion arising, as two issues are getting mixed together -- one about logical fallacies, which is getting beaten to death, and the other about Trump as a "fall guy." I'll expand on the second to clear up a misconception, because applying Boardroom Trump's statements about leadership to president Trump's actions isn't cutting it.

I don't disagree that the situation has been rapidly changing, and that it's hard to come up with and execute an action plan when bureaucracies at all levels (municipal, state, federal) are involved. And of course the novelty of the situation -- trying to strike the balance between ensuring public health and maintaining economic activity -- is a mitigating circumstance. As you point out, there really isn't a single, overarching "right" answer here on how to handle a pandemic -- just what works in each individual region/country given their resources, geography, population density, culture/mindset, etc. But there are definitely universal "wrong" answers -- such as denial, obfuscation, delayed action, and an unwillingness to take responsibility when the welfare of the nation is at stake.

To your point that a different president wouldn't have "saved us" from the virus. That may very well be true, but it's also quite possible that another president wouldn't have made decisions that left us in a similarly vulnerable position to begin with. And it is fair to claim that someone else would have done much better in showing competent leadership and instilling confidence in the public, because that's what other heads of state and several governors in the U.S. have been doing. Mike DeWine in Ohio, for example, has been giving a rolling masterclass on how to act (and react, given the changing situation on the ground) during the crisis, and how to address the public like adults, with the gravitas demanded by the situation.

So, your characterization of Trump as a "fall guy" isn't a straw man argument, I'll give you that. But it is a bad argument, because it implies that he's an innocent bystander who is falsely accused to deflect blame from someone else. This is overly generous to the many conscious decisions he's made, both before and during the crisis, which have hamstrung rather than helped efforts to contain/manage the virus. Not to mention the gross misuse of the bully pulpit during a time of national crisis. If he goes down, it's because of the consequences of his own actions, and not because he's a patsy.

 

[yaah]

One thing about internet forums learned over the years - libertarians are NEVER wrong.

One point though - in response to the claim that state governors could have acted sooner - one thing which prevented individual governors from acting sooner was the literal absence of positive cases. This was in part (if not mostly) due to the poor testing situation. Ohio and Michigan both started acting and cancelling things the very same day they had their first positive COVID cases. There are certain things state governments are limited in doing.

Could states have acted before there were any literal positive cases? Maybe. But would that have been accepted?

 

[ccous]

One thing about internet forums learned over the years - libertarians are NEVER wrong.

One point though - in response to the claim that state governors could have acted sooner - one thing which prevented individual governors from acting sooner was the literal absence of positive cases. This was in part (if not mostly) due to the poor testing situation. Ohio and Michigan both started acting and cancelling things the very same day they had their first positive COVID cases. There are certain things state governments are limited in doing.

Could states have acted before there were any literal positive cases? Maybe. But would that have been accepted?

Michigan residents are still flipping about the governor’s orders, even though we’re behind only NY and NJ in stats. So no, it would not have been accepted. People are too naive to how a novel virus can rip through an unhealthy population, they’d rather go out shopping and cough all over each other. I would’ve liked to see a competent federal response and lockdown once the first positives were found in WA. By that time it was evident to anyone with any background in science that it was likely everywhere, it was just a matter of testing.

 

[Dro133]

Climate-related deaths (from extreme heat, cold, storms, drought, floods, etc) are at an all-time low, have decreased with every decade since the 1930s (i.e. since the widespread use of fossil fuel energy processes), and are down over 99% from their 1930 levels.

"The year 2013, with 29,404 reported deaths, had 99.4 percent fewer climate-related deaths than the historic record year of 1932, which had 5,073,283 reported deaths for the same category."

The One Statistic Climate Catastrophists Don't Want You to Know

Alex Epstein is President and Founder of the Center for Industrial Progress—an organization sowing the seeds of energy enthusiasm to counter the tide of climate alarmism—to share a few thoughts with our readers here at Cato; find them below.

www.cato.org

Does this dramatic decrease in actual deaths from the climate matter at all? Even a little? Or should I focus only on hysterical predictions from people who have a track record of making accurate predictions of catastrophe with exactly 0% success?

Authorities can have bad thinking methods. Journalists, politicians, and really smart people can have bad thinking methods. A popular idea is not necessarily a true idea. Ask Semmelweis.

A couple things:

1. That report is from the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank of which Charles Koch is a co-founder. Not exactly an impartial source of information.

2. I'm not sure that climate-related deaths is a good measure of the effects of climate change. For one, the number of deaths due to an event can be affected by a multitude of confounding factors. Take for example the data point at 1932 from the chart you posted; this ~5 million deaths I believe is from the Soviet Famine of 1932, which by many accounts, was a largely man-made famine in which the USSR deliberately redirected large parts of Ukraine's crop harvest that year to other parts of the Soviet republic, leading to the death of ~4 million Ukrainians (can read more about it here). So, this is a disingenuous example. The reduction in climate-related deaths can be potentially attributed to many things, i.e. changes in geopolitical context, improvements in technology, improvements in medical care, etc.

Furthermore, climate-related deaths does not truly capture the effect of a given climate-related event. Take the current COVID-19 crisis, for example; current estimates of total deaths in the U.S. once we're past the peak of infections in August is ~60,000. This is roughly equivalent to a bad flu season. This number does not adequately capture the effect this pandemic has had on the global economy and our way of life. Furthermore, imagine what would happen if a climate-related event, such as a large hurricane along the lines of Katrina or Sandy, occurred during a pandemic. Imagine trying to maintain social distancing measures while simultaneously preparing for and recovering from one of these events. The human toll would absolutely be devastating. (By the way, there is plenty of literature out there discussing predicted increases in the geographic range of zoonotic diseases attributable to climate change).

I think a better measure of the impact of climate change is the number of climate-related events, which has steadily risen. Here's a graphic (source):

3. Global surface temperature has raised about 1 degree C relative to the average temperatures recorded from 1950-1980, so keep that in mind when you're looking at the number of annual deaths due to climate-related events. Climate scientists have predicted that depending on what measures we do or don't take, temperatures might rise by as much as 5.5 degrees C (source). So, reductions in climate-related deaths since the early 20th century is in no way an indicator that further increases in global surface temperature are not going to wreck a devastating toll on human life.

 

[Adrian Cocot]

One thing about internet forums learned over the years - libertarians are NEVER wrong.

A bit of an aside, but libertarians, and by some extent the proponents of Austrian economics, do have valid ideas. But they often eschew pragmatism for ideological purity, and that can make it hard to take them seriously.

Credit where credit is due, though. When hedge fund manager and billionaire Twitter libertarian Cliff Assness, tweets out "I AM NOT A LIBERTARIAN ABOUT THE CORONA VIRUS" it shows that at least some people are willing to open their minds. Let's just hope it wasn't because his funds were underwater.