Low GPA, 4.0 masters, high mcat- MD/PhD

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SnicknameU

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Hello, fellow SD'ers. So, I'm currently an undergrad/masters student whos applying MD/ Ph.D. this coming cycle and I was wondering if I could get some help/opinions. So I go to a relatively average school nothing with real name recognition. While doing my undergrad I kinda goofed and ended up with a low GPA. I've got no legitimate excuse. I've got a strong upward trend and I figure I could get it to 3.4 gpa, and 3.43 sgpa by application time, which I know is horrendously low for MD/Ph.D. I'm doing my masters concurrent to my undergrad and will be over 50% done by the time of application. My masters GPA, however, is a 4.0 and should stay there. So do you think along with the background information provided (below) my masters GPA will provide significant enough cushioning so I don't just get filtered out? Thank for the help.

Background
ORM, Male
Major: biological engineering & Philosophy
Masters: Biomechanical engineering (more towards the polymer side)
Mcat: 527
99th percentile for both GRE& GRE Chem
Significant research:
several second author publications, 2 first author, and 1 case study
1 patent pending (not related to research)
A lot of community and hospital volunteering
hospice grief counselor
about 30 hours of shadowing, but I can get that up.
Student Government Rep

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The masters GPA will look good, but sadly AMCAS doesn't include it in GPA calculations. MSTP directors can speak more to this, but for competitive grant renewals, MSTPs have to report GPA mean and range on applicants and matriculants (I believe they no longer report MCAT stats). I'm not sure if the GPAs they report include prior graduate work or just undergrad, but if accepting a student will noticeably change the MSTP's GPA stats, then they might be less inclined to accept that student because they may then have to justify their acceptance of low-GPA applicants during their grant renewal.

I'm not sure about which/how programs filter by GPA, but if you call programs that interest you they might be open about it. I'm also not sure of the typical GPA distribution at MSTPs, but the averages are high (~3.8+), especially at more competitive programs. In any case, it's always a good idea to spread a wide net since adcoms are unpredictable creatures.

Edit: I just checked, MD/PhD matriculants (not just MSTPs) last year had GPA (SD) of 3.8 (0.2), so at 3.4 you'd be in about the 2.5th percentile of matriculants. The GPA range for matriculants bottomed at 2.75, though, so take that as you will.
 
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Hello, fellow SD'ers. So, I'm currently an undergrad/masters student whos applying MD/ Ph.D. this coming cycle and I was wondering if I could get some help/opinions. So I go to a relatively average school nothing with real name recognition. While doing my undergrad I kinda goofed and ended up with a low GPA. I've got no legitimate excuse. I've got a strong upward trend and I figure I could get it to 3.4 gpa, and 3.43 sgpa by application time, which I know is horrendously low for MD/Ph.D. I'm doing my masters concurrent to my undergrad and will be over 50% done by the time of application. My masters GPA, however, is a 4.0 and should stay there. So do you think along with the background information provided (below) my masters GPA will provide significant enough cushioning so I don't just get filtered out? Thank for the help.

Background
ORM, Male
Major: biological engineering & Philosophy
Masters: Biomechanical engineering (more towards the polymer side)
Mcat: 527
99th percentile for both GRE& GRE Chem
Significant research:
several second author publications, 2 first author, and 1 case study
1 patent pending (not related to research)
A lot of community and hospital volunteering
hospice grief counselor
about 30 hours of shadowing, but I can get that up.
Student Government Rep
Your application seems very strong minus the GPAs. They are important, but they are not everything. If you have strong letters, I think it will be helpful. Apply broadly and to schools you have compelling reason to apply to. Make a case for yourself by writing well in your primary and secondaries. The schools that are a good fit for you will recognize your abilities.
 
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I was in a similar situation last year when I applied (low undergrad GPA, good master's GPA, plenty of research). You have a higher sGPA and higher MCAT (mine was <520). My field limited the number of schools I could apply to, and I decided to not apply to Midwestern or less competitive southern MSTP programs for personal reasons. I still got an interview and acceptance at a strong non-MSTP program. I'm no adcom, but I suspect you'd get plenty of love from fully funded non-MSTPs (find schools with good F-30 funding rates) and less competitive MSTPs (think Midwest and south like Iowa, UAB, etc.). You could then throw in a few reach MSTPs where your research is a good match.

Another note or two regarding the GPA distribution of accepted applicants, since this came up above:

1) The distribution of accepted applicants is not that different from that of applicants in general. It's slightly shifted higher, but this could be due to the fact that some folks who have no business applying drag things down a little in the general applicant pool. What that means is that while your undergrad GPA is low, you likely still have a perfectly reasonable chance of gaining an acceptance if you apply with a good school list.

2) Your undergrad GPA is not 2.5th percentile. It's a skewed distribution (capped at 4.0 on the right), and your undergrad GPA could easily be anything from 10th to 20th percentile among accepted applicants. It's hard to know for sure, but it's not nearly as dire as painted above.
 
@mk536 the distribution is capped at 4.0, but the accepted applicant pool is also greatly enriched for 4.0s, so it's likely a capped but left-skewed distribution. This is especially the case with top programs, and I'm taking a cue from an earlier thread in which @SnicknameU said they were planning to apply only to "Ivies" which they then edited to say "mainly upper tier" programs.

Edit: See the attached photo for stats on the applicants and interviewees to the WashU MSTP in 2016. This is certainly left-skewed despite the 4.0 cap. I doubt this is dissimilar from other top programs.
 

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@mk536 the distribution is capped at 4.0, but the accepted applicant pool is also greatly enriched for 4.0s, so it's likely a capped but left-skewed distribution. This is especially the case with top programs, and I'm taking a cue from an earlier thread in which @SnicknameU said they were planning to apply only to "Ivies" which they then edited to say "mainly upper tier" programs.

Edit: See the attached photo for stats on the applicants and interviewees to the WashU MSTP in 2016. This is certainly left-skewed despite the 4.0 cap. I doubt this is dissimilar from other top programs.

I didn't see anything about applying to just Ivies/"top tier schools," which my post pretty clearly recommends against (I don't think OP would get much love doing that). The WashU distribution doesn't negate my two points.

In respect to the first, the WashU interview distribution is actually surprisingly generous. Most top schools end up accepting candidates from the very high end of the GPA distribution, but it seems like WashU is actually interviewing a reasonable proportion of candidates with lower GPAs. I imagine the proportions are even better for lower stat candidates relative to candidates with high GPAs at less competitive programs, especially for candidates who have good research and high MCAT scores. This is mostly speculation of course, but it's a hypothesis that is consistent with top programs mostly being filled with high stat candidates and yet an overall acceptance pool with reasonably wide sd given how close the mean is to the upper GPA cap.

In respect to my second point, a left skewed, capped distribution works exactly as I described above. The average spread of the data above the mean tends to be much smaller than that below the mean. So a 3.4 is highly unlikely to be the 2.5th percentile, which would assume no cap and normality (or something close to it).

TL;DR: OP applying only to Ivies would be a mistake, but the stats on accepted candidates still suggest that there are a number of programs where he could reasonably expect to receive interviews despite his low undergrad GPA.

Addendum: And to clarify, "Midwest" as a less competitive region has a few exceptions to it obviously. WashU is not the same competitiveness as Iowa, Minnesota, etc.
 
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I didn't see anything about applying to just Ivies/"top tier schools," which my post pretty clearly recommends against (I don't think OP would get much love doing that). The WashU distribution doesn't negate my two points.

In respect to the first, the WashU interview distribution is actually surprisingly generous. Most top schools end up accepting candidates from the very high end of the GPA distribution, but it seems like WashU is actually interviewing a reasonable proportion of candidates with lower GPAs. I imagine the proportions are even better for lower stat candidates relative to candidates with high GPAs at less competitive programs, especially for candidates who have good research and high MCAT scores. This is mostly speculation of course, but it's a hypothesis that is consistent with top programs mostly being filled with high stat candidates and yet an overall acceptance pool with reasonably wide sd given how close the mean is to the upper GPA cap.

In respect to my second point, a left skewed, capped distribution works exactly as I described above. The average spread of the data above the mean tends to be much smaller than that below the mean. So a 3.4 is highly unlikely to be the 2.5th percentile, which would assume no cap and normality (or something close to it).

TL;DR: OP applying only to Ivies would be a mistake, but the stats on accepted candidates still suggest that there are a number of programs where he could reasonably expect to receive interviews despite his low undergrad GPA.

Addendum: And to clarify, "Midwest" as a less competitive region has a few exceptions to it obviously. WashU is not the same competitiveness as Iowa, Minnesota, etc.

I agree with your TL;DR. And I would add that applying only to top programs would be a mistake for any applicant.
 
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Thanks, everybody for your help! I had abandoned the whole only ivy/ top school, which is why I didn't mention it in the original post. I think my best bet is to apply wide and far and try to establish a personal connection with adcoms by calling the school, I've heard this really helps show interest. I was also able to get in contact with someone who did an SMP, and then went MSTP, and they told me when you input your grades in amcas, you provide your masters grades and they'll file as a different GPA. This inter prevents you from getting filtered out. Thanks again!
 
Thanks, everybody for your help! I had abandoned the whole only ivy/ top school, which is why I didn't mention it in the original post. I think my best bet is to apply wide and far and try to establish a personal connection with adcoms by calling the school, I've heard this really helps show interest. I was also able to get in contact with someone who did an SMP, and then went MSTP, and they told me when you input your grades in amcas, you provide your masters grades and they'll file as a different GPA. This inter prevents you from getting filtered out. Thanks again!

I don’t suggest personally calling every school.
 
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