This is disturbing and unwelcome news. I knew that only roughly half of AOA programs applied for accreditation so far, but I kind of assumed all of them would at some point. I completely forgot that a number of programs basically said "yeah we're not even going to bother." If it turns out that the ones who haven't applied yet have no intention of doing so then we're looking at a huge loss in training positions as things stand.
That said, unless DO discrimination just magically disappears overnight, DO may very well become the degree of primary care in the not too distant future. What's more we may even see a drop in DO match percentages.
This means COCA will have to step in and start pulling accreditation or maybe even just turn things over to the LCME. By this point, the COMLEX would be long gone because everyone will likely have to take the USMLE if they expect to match anywhere half-decent past 2020 anyway.
The more I look into it, the more volatile things seem indeed. Pretty soon the sky will rain fire, the waters will turn brown, and then the zombies will come...
Yeah, a lot going on in this thread, and I don't have time to go through it all, but here are some things to keep in mind.
Programs have years (5 of them) to transition. They don't all have to apply overnight. The AOA put a deadline on programs so (1) if they had no plan to switch they wouldn't take residents and then leave them in the lurch and (2) to prevent all the programs from waiting to the last minute and running out of time.
As of right now, none of the programs have reached their AOA sanctioned deadlines to apply, so they still can until Jan (longer programs - 5+) or a later date (3, 4, etc.).
As of right now, 15 mos into the 60 month transition, 1/3 of all the AOA programs have applied for accreditation. The number will keep going up. Every few days more programs are applying.
It is very unlikely that many programs will just throw up their hands and say, "whelp, its too hard to even apply, let's get rid of our residency programs". More than likely any programs that are giving up, are programs that were already considering dropping their residencies (something that actually happens regularly), and they are using the merger as a good time to peace out.
As far as them attaining accreditation after they applied, you have it from a program director on here who basically said its very unlikely for the ACGME not to bend over backwards to give programs chance after chance of fulfilling the requirements. It benefits no one for programs to shut down, and without real deficiencies, I doubt many will fail to make the transition.
Keep in mind that everything I said is based on the current state of things and more or less my speculation and observation of how things tend to work out. It might not go down that way.
No point worrying about it though until you get there. Focus on doing well, taking the USMLE and working hard to be competitive. If you do that, regardless of what will happen in the future, you won't have regrets. DOs will continue to specialize as they've done in the NRMP match all along.