Money and Investment

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Does anyone have an opinion of OVTI? I was looking at it last june and missed the ride up. Omnivision mostly does cellphone cameras, but they are trying to move into medical devices too. They own some proprietary technology via an acquisiton a couple years ago(wavefront coding, Truefocus). The stock is nearing a 52wk low, but I can't figure out why it is down so much in the past couple weeks (lot of short activity?). The CEO appears to have just sold of a bunch, but it appears pre-arranged. I guess the biggest selling point about their tech is that it is cheap and useful for one-time use med devices.

It looks like there are two devices (besides camera phones) their technology is used in:

one for use in colonoscopies: (looks promising, provides reverse view on the way out)
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/53780.php

and one for intubations: (not too sure if this will catch on, some of the guys on here probably have a good opinion)
http://www.devicespace.com/news_story.aspx?NewsEntityId=20968

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Where's my 15 foot pole?
wait three months, it will be on sale.

foil:eek:



( The CEO appears to have just sold of a bunch,)
 
Just read this whole thread and man was it informative! Posts by Hockeyguy, Sandman, and miamidc, among others were extremely informative. After I finish this post I'm gonna go get some more education from clearstation.

I'm new to stocks and wanted to start dabbling some. You guys suggest Scottrade still? How about for shorts? Can you use Scottrade for that too?

Lastly, what do you guys think of Ford (F) now? There was talk about it in this thread in early 2006 when it was around 7, and now it's around 6. Can it possibly go lower? This is the lowest F has been since the 90s. It has to be solid long term investment right?
 
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Just read this whole thread and man was it informative! Posts by Hockeyguy, Sandman, and miamidc, among others were extremely informative. After I finish this post I'm gonna go get some more education from clearstation.

I'm new to stocks and wanted to start dabbling some. You guys suggest Scottrade still? How about for shorts? Can you use Scottrade for that too?

Lastly, what do you guys think of Ford (F) now? There was talk about it in this thread in early 2006 when it was around 7, and now it's around 6. Can it possibly go lower? This is the lowest F has been since the 90s. It has to be solid long term investment right?

I've heard good things about tradeking. good customer service and cheap commisions. Right now they are offering a $100 bonus for signing up. I don't personally have an account with them, so can't speak for them personally. Currently I use zecco (they offer 10 free trades a month, but the website is not user friendly) and scottrade (but may switch this account to tradeking because my local scottrade branch's customer service is pretty poor compared to the branch office where i used to live).
 
The 1st question was asking for examples of attendings paying off loans... I finished my anesthesia residency 18 mos ago. Three kids, wife, $270K in loans, $80K in credit cards.. Job at $300K (earned an extra $90K on the side in 2007), bought a home $780K.. Lots of debt! Started on the highest interest stuff first... Credit cards. Despite advice to the contrary from financial advisor, still maxing retirement funding to high $40K's... (I don't trust myself with it). Paying about $50K/year, to get all but mortgage paid off in under 7-10 yrs. Still gives a nice take home. Best advice, minimize your debt from freshman year of college to end of residency (side jobs, scholarships, grants, whatever.. but don't stress on it). Next, don't buy the big house. Wait. I have 3 kids, I'm 35, I'm sick of the run down rentals so.. But wait. Next, if you owe what I owe and you go into pediatrics... well, hope you're enjoying peds. Lastly, if your reading this stuff you should be ok.. you are already planning and thinking about it. Good luck.
 
Permanent disability would allow you to get 100% forgiveness of your government student loans, so the argument above is wrong. Disability would obviously suck, but not in terms of loan payments.

It's true that the stock market goes up and down so you can't count on getting the historic 10.4% annual return of the past. Quality stocks held for the long term are still going to give you the most return on your money by far and would dramatically outpace the savings you get by paying down low interest debt early.

A good compromise between paying down debt vs investing in the stock market vs. CD's and interest-earing bank accounts could be buying preferred stock in large stable companies. You can get returns that are nearly as certain as bonds but can yield 6-7% instead of 4-5%. The difference between 4% and 7% returns over 30 years is the difference between multiplying your money by 3 or by 8. ($10,000 yields $30,000 at 4% but $80,000 at 7%). Also, the income from preferred stocks are in dividends with a 15% tax rate instead of the 35% you'd pay on some other forms of income so you effectively make even more. Plus, non-convertible preferred stocks fluctuate in value very little, so if you are forced to sell in a down market, it doesn't matter much. For example, Citigroup Cap VII is down about 4% from its Sept 07 price while Citi common stock is down 40% since Sept 07. Of course in an up market the non-convertibe preferred stock won't go up much either. You trade stability for potential returns.

I'm not trying to push preferred stock too much. Just to point out an investment option many people might not have looked into. It's probably best to have a mixture of risky investments with potential high returns and stable investments with lower returns. You have to decide for yourself whether a steady 7% is better than a volatile return (20% one year, -3% the next, etc.) is preferable to you. Historically, the stock market gives by far the best returns over the long term and it will probably continue to do so. Either way, paying down debt on low interest loans is not the best financial decision. You can pay your debt off early if it is keeping you up at night worrying about it, but that peace of mind will cost you 10's of thousands of dollars.
 
Re: paying off loans vs. letting them ride.

I will pay off my loans first before investing. Sure, technically you can make more money by investing at a higher percentage than your loans are costing. Realistically though, you are going to pay your loans off in a couple of years so the difference will not be so dramatic. Then you totally free up your greatest wealth-building tool: your income. Not to mention the lifted burden of not owing anybody anything. I can't wait for that.

My .02

I disagree. Saving $20,000 a year for 30 years vs. 28 years gets you and extra $500,000 with an 8% return, $800,000 with a 10% return.
 
Hey guys sorry I don't post here as much as in past. Just wanted to update that I have scaled out of CMG - breaking down pretty hard - made a nice chunk of change about 70$ a share. But now I am completely out. Per my other posts have been shorting a bunch of little cra ppy stocks during the downdraft some I have posted here some others I have just done in between cases at work a nice little couple thousand dollar a trade shooters.

Next move I am making is fairly risky and I hesitate to even post it. But I will :). I am scaling into a rather large (for me anyway) position of SIRI. Buying a nice block at 3 dollars, will match that dollar amount if it falls to two dollars a share and again at 1 dollar. My reasoning is as follows. One, even though the company is losing money I do believe its a good company with solid mngmt and a potentially massive upside. Two the merger with XMSR will go through eventually - no question. Three I like the product and think it has real value - I honestly can't envision it disapperaring all together, as more people get turned on to it I think they'll agree. I won't be cancelling my subscription anytime soon and think the tipping point for satellite radio is about a year away. And the negative setiment towards this stock leads to believe a change is in the air. Who knows time will tell, maybe a couple of years, but I think this one could be a big winner. If it does though I will be quitting Medicine and charging you guys for this s hit. j/j Good luck and I'll try to post more often.

Mario
 
hockeyguy

I have been following your advice on some trades and you have been right on the money. I follow this thread just to see if you have any new positions. If you have any other quick shorts please do not hesitate to share it. If you ever do get out of this doctor thing and start charging for trading advice I will be your first client.:D
 
I disagree. Saving $20,000 a year for 30 years vs. 28 years gets you and extra $500,000 with an 8% return, $800,000 with a 10% return.

I am in the group that feels you should pay off debt early as possible in most circumstances. Especially when interest rates our greater than 5%, which is what most of us MS4s are looking at for at least half of our loans. I think the last two years for federal loans are like 6.98. The 2 years prior are looked in for me at like 4%.

There are no guarantees in mutual funds or stocks. Essentially you are risking your money and if you do make money uncle sam makes you pay a pretty high capital gains tax (16%), not to mention the fees associated with trading and built in fees of mutual funds. What is guaranteed is the difference between paying a loan off in a few years or dragging it our for 30, is serious coin in interest. If you feel like you can gamble with some investments and cover the difference plus some, more power to you.

The risk reward ratio doesn’t really support investing when interest rates are what they currently.

Check out this book especially the chapter on predication.
Your Money and Your Brain: by Jason Zweig (editor of the intelligent investor)
 
Permanent disability would allow you to get 100% forgiveness of your government student loans, so the argument above is wrong. Disability would obviously suck, but not in terms of loan payments.

I think you have to meet the SocSec definition of disabled to get the student loans forgiven. THat is a very high standard - totally unable to hold any job at all - that I would bet is pretty rare. Much more common and devastating - no longer employable as a physician but still able to work somehow.
 
Any thoughts on ABXA? They primarily operate planes/hubs for DHL (good contracts until 2010), however DHL recently purchased a stake in a competitor. DHL's purchase and their abysmal US performance has led to much market uncertainty regarding the company. ABXA's recent purchase of a private company has delayed financials and makes it difficult to see the current underlying value (new debt, etc.). They seem to have solid ROE and they are diversifying the business through the recent acquisition. Management also seems to place importance on growth in Asia. Regardless, the company's main (90%) revenue stream is still DHL. It seems like the company may be trading around/below their liquidation value (although this is difficult to estimate without post-acquisition assement of new debt). Earnings should be out in March at the latest. My reason for investment: trading at or near liquidation value.
 
Hey guys sorry I don't post here as much as in past. Just wanted to update that I have scaled out of CMG - breaking down pretty hard - made a nice chunk of change about 70$ a share. But now I am completely out. Per my other posts have been shorting a bunch of little cra ppy stocks during the downdraft some I have posted here some others I have just done in between cases at work a nice little couple thousand dollar a trade shooters.

Next move I am making is fairly risky and I hesitate to even post it. But I will :). I am scaling into a rather large (for me anyway) position of SIRI. Buying a nice block at 3 dollars, will match that dollar amount if it falls to two dollars a share and again at 1 dollar. My reasoning is as follows. One, even though the company is losing money I do believe its a good company with solid mngmt and a potentially massive upside. Two the merger with XMSR will go through eventually - no question. Three I like the product and think it has real value - I honestly can't envision it disapperaring all together, as more people get turned on to it I think they'll agree. I won't be cancelling my subscription anytime soon and think the tipping point for satellite radio is about a year away. And the negative setiment towards this stock leads to believe a change is in the air. Who knows time will tell, maybe a couple of years, but I think this one could be a big winner. If it does though I will be quitting Medicine and charging you guys for this s hit. j/j Good luck and I'll try to post more often.

Mario

I haven't been waiting to jump on siri (maybe in a couple years), but have been paying attention to the government intervention on the merger (which i think is rediculous).
Anyway...I'm not usually a Jim Cramer fan, but heres a recent clip from his show ranting about congress preventing this:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23338039/site/14081545
 
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one thing none of you are talking about is the fact that this country's economy is going into the pits. and i'm not just talking about the short term.
 
HAVE YOU SEEN GOLD :D
How much more upside does this commodity super cycle still have? I think by the time all the excess money gravitating in the monetary system finds it's way into tangible assets current prices will be seen as a bargain.

Any good recommendation on mining companies or other commodity related shares?
 
I've been looking at EGI; it is a small gold and copper mining company with large mines in Mongolia. Perhpas you've been following the Ivanhoe negociations with the mongolian govt regarding windfall taxes. Basically these companies have prospected but are waiting to mine gold until the taxes are cleared up. (If you haven't followed Ivanhoe, they're the biggest miner there and are battling the 68% windfall legislation from 1960-something). IVNH will likely buy EGI once the laws are ironed out. EGI has been estimated to sell for about $3.20 ps. If you can pick it up on a dip below $2.10 its probably a good price.

Too bad NXG went private--they were mining gold and copper simultaneously in both hugera mines. Selling copper (last year) at cost of gold production--that was a sweet margin!

Simplest play on gold is GLD; heck of a 9-month chart!


I'm starting to look at the other metals again too--titanium producers have been beaten up... once Boeing sells some of these flying mostrosities TIE and ATI should bounce back on demand numbers.
 
I've been holding off on buying gold for about a year now and im kicking myself now. Taking into account inflation, gold would have to hit around 2000 to be a true all-time high and I can see this happening with the fed pissing away the value of the dollar . Commodities seem great now that no one cares about the currency, but I don't have the experience. Any specific commodities that you guys think are still cheap? Agriculture stuff maybe?

Here is what I bought today: SHLD, FFH, ABXA, ISIS.

ISIS is my first biotech ever and I'm hoping for big things. They'll have about 450mil (1.2 billion market cap) in cash by the end of the year, so I'm thinking there is little downside. There newest RNAi drug seems like its going to do really well. Any thoughts?
 
Good time to buy,
metals on sale (at the moment)
a safe haven for future pending collapse........should be right after the Olympics and Elections.

(rtp, gg )

foil
 
Hey guys sorry I don't post here as much as in past. Just wanted to update that I have scaled out of CMG - breaking down pretty hard - made a nice chunk of change about 70$ a share. But now I am completely out. Per my other posts have been shorting a bunch of little cra ppy stocks during the downdraft some I have posted here some others I have just done in between cases at work a nice little couple thousand dollar a trade shooters.

Next move I am making is fairly risky and I hesitate to even post it. But I will :). I am scaling into a rather large (for me anyway) position of SIRI. Buying a nice block at 3 dollars, will match that dollar amount if it falls to two dollars a share and again at 1 dollar. My reasoning is as follows. One, even though the company is losing money I do believe its a good company with solid mngmt and a potentially massive upside. Two the merger with XMSR will go through eventually - no question. Three I like the product and think it has real value - I honestly can't envision it disapperaring all together, as more people get turned on to it I think they'll agree. I won't be cancelling my subscription anytime soon and think the tipping point for satellite radio is about a year away. And the negative setiment towards this stock leads to believe a change is in the air. Who knows time will tell, maybe a couple of years, but I think this one could be a big winner. If it does though I will be quitting Medicine and charging you guys for this s hit. j/j Good luck and I'll try to post more often.

Mario

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120638514923860085.html?mod=MKTW&ru=MKTW

Hopefully now they can concentratre on growing the buiseness, finish the merger and enter the growth phase. Good luck guys. Also be extrememly carefull with Gold and gold stocks. Trust me I know what you've heard and why you are bullish on gold I have read it all before. But please be carefull when gold cracks it tends to crash violently. I have been hearing people with absolutely no market experience talking about loading up on gold stocks - thats a bad sign combined with its 10% drop last week. Good luck

MC
 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120638514923860085.html?mod=MKTW&ru=MKTW

Hopefully now they can concentratre on growing the buiseness, finish the merger and enter the growth phase. Good luck guys. Also be extrememly carefull with Gold and gold stocks. Trust me I know what you've heard and why you are bullish on gold I have read it all before. But please be carefull when gold cracks it tends to crash violently. I have been hearing people with absolutely no market experience talking about loading up on gold stocks - thats a bad sign combined with its 10% drop last week. Good luck

MC

Agree completely...herd mentality.
 

From the above link:

A troubled currency and financial system and large budget and trade deficits do not present an attractive face to creditors. Yet Washington in its hubris seems to believe that the US can forever rely on the Chinese, Japanese and Saudis to finance America's life beyond its means. Imagine the shock when the day arrives that a US Treasury auction of new debt instruments is not fully subscribed.

From Bloomberg a few days ago:

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries are losing their ``charm'' and U.S. corporate debt and asset-backed securities may become attractive once confidence in credit markets improves, an official at South Korea's National Pension Service said.

The $220 billion fund, which holds about $14 billion of U.S. government debt, is seeking higher yielding securities after two-year Treasury yields slumped to 1.24 percent, the lowest since 2003. The pension service is buying commodity-related assets and starting a $22 billion fund with the government to develop overseas resources such as oil fields.

``The charm of U.S. Treasuries has decreased rapidly,'' Kwag Dae Hwan, 47, head of global investments at the pension service, said in an interview in Seoul yesterday. He's waiting for Federal Reserve measures aimed at restoring confidence in credit markets before buying riskier securities, Kwag said.

The 20-year-old pension system plans to raise overseas investments as the number of retirees rises to about 3.23 million by 2012 from 2.21 million in 2007. The fund expects returns this year to be little changed from 6.8 percent last year and up from 5.8 percent in 2006, Kwag said. It had a record 14.4 percent in 1998.

Kwag said he is ``not particularly attracted'' to Treasuries. The extra yield two-year German bonds offer over similar-dated Treasuries has widened to 1.71 percentage points, near the highest since 1993.
 
Chinese exporters shun flagging dollar

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/aac6859e-fc...uayle.com/start.html&nclick_check=1:eek::eek:

By Robin Kwong in Hong Kong

Published: March 27 2008 22:02 | Last updated: March 27 2008 22:02

Rising numbers of Chinese exporters are shunning the US dollar or devising ways to offset the impact of the falling currency as they confront rising labour and raw material costs at home.

According to Alibaba.com, the online company that matches Chinese suppliers with international buyers, the vast majority of their almost 700,000 Chinese suppliers no longer use dollars to settle non-US transactions to minimise foreign exchange risk.

foil :eek: :eek: :eek:
 
one of our attending instructors mentioned this therapeutic option the other day.

here's the company and the Lancet publishing. the company is traded on the Swiss exchange.

what do you guys think? i know it's very risky playing these clinical trials, but....

http://www.cytos.com/doc/Lancet_Fulltext_Final.pdf
 
Ok guys, new direction here. With the price of oil setting new records all the time, how can a new anesthesiologist/person with some nice income potential get in on the action?

Buy Exxon stock? Oil futures, oil/gas exploration, mineral rights? Any thoughts? What do the people with 'old' money buy??

Is energy a safe sector? Does anyone know about money in wind energy?
 
1. Pay off debt if the interest is greater than what you can make from a 100% reliable investment: ie prime rate savings.

2. Invest in the S&P 500 index fund. Easy as pie to do and you don't even have to go through a broker. Consisten returns in the 8% range/year.

3. I invest in Nintendo. They've never seen a red year in the decades they've been operating.
 
this is an interesting company to keep an eye on.

basically, they methylated naltraxone so it won't cross the BBB, but antagonizes opioid receptors in the periphery. most importantly in the GI, so the negative effects of constipation are mitigated.

take a look at the charts over the last year (PGNX: NASDAQ). they were trading above $15 when some bad news came out after some uninspiring results of phase II clinical trials came out.

the stock took a major beating, and i stopped following. then, the EU comes out with a statement that they're considering approval. it's already approved in Canada, and recently was approved by the FDA.

it's hovering around $12, which is $3 below (minimum, as you'll see in the charts) where it was trading prior to the phase II bad news.

so, this could be a good trade. the EU is expected to rule "mid-year", so this could be good for a quick $2-4 trade if you put in a sell order etc.

like i said, this stock "trades", so if the EU comes out positive, it may be wise to take profits from any upticks.


cf
 
From Steve Quayle Web Site

Q-Files

Foil :luck:





July 14, 2008
BL

Mr. Quayle;

This is unbelievable, Mr. Quayle! My wife and I had our car loan called in by U.S. Bancorp! We were NOT even notified ahead of time! They just took our 2003 Ford Focus wagon! We found it missing from our driveway the other morning!! We were NOT in default, and current with all payments!!!

U.S. Bancorp said that as lien holders, they reserve the right to take any financed car at ANY TIME and for ANY REASON!! We only had a year to go before the car was completely paid off!

They told us the car was being auctioned off any any monies received above and beyond the payoff would be paid to us. (Sure....) Other then this, we were no longer under any financial obligations to U.S. Bancorp, even if the car was sold for less than the payoff. (I even got that in writing!!!)

I can't believe this!!! This is insane!!!!

Now WHY would a bank do this UNLESS they were in SERIOUS financial trouble and needed to raise QUICK CAPITAL!!!!

Everyone is telling me to sue U.S. Bancorp. But why??? I say; let them have that old car! I'm out from under a debt. I'm free to pay cash for another vehicle.

But the manner in which this was literally stolen out from under us is just another indication that the bank crisis in this nation is GROWING!

Plant those gardens! Can those veggies! Stock up on food! The bottom is falling out from the banking industry....RAPIDLY!

B L
 
you dudes are pretty sharp in here, so i thought i'd ask a question here.
I know cash value based life insurance get's a bad rap, but here's my question

if you are looking at a variable life insurance policy (that has mutual funds) that has averaged 8.8% over many many years, with the cash value TAX-FREE when you withdraw(as these all are)....and assuming taxes are as low now as they'll probably ever be...(which i don't think is a terrible assumption to make, they are not that high right now compared to where they likely will be)

this money would not be touched by me for many years mind you, it makes no sense to withdraw cash from this account before 15 yrs because that's when the surrender fees drop. if i need to withdraw cash before then, I have other places to draw from.

still a bad idea? the tax-free withdrawal at the end is a nice nugget, especially when i'm pretty sure taxes are going to blow later on.

I've already maxed out any 401k's and other retirement stuff i can, and have a decent amount invested in higher return avenues, i.e. stocks, as well as a lesser amount in bonds.

no kids yet
 
10.6.2008


Been tracking PNM
It's been moving back and forth from 10-11, once quite higher.

A few weeks ago I set a buy at 9.00

Shark bit the bait and I reeled it in.

Todays low 8.99
End: 9.78

Foil
 
My 401K just lost a 112 bucks. My first installment into 401K was 1512 bucks. And I have lost 112 bucks already. I can only imagine those people who have 1mil+ 401K money. Losing 10-20% would be devastating. Since I am young I will continue to invest in the 401K for the long term.

My assest breakdown: 30% bond index, 20% Fid Contra Fund, 25% Fidelity Freedom 2010 Fund, and 25% Fid Freedom 2025 Fund.

I have lost nearly 7% of my value. I guess in today's market most people have lost money.
 
I just started working in private practice. salary 270K (1st yr), 320K (2nd yr), 370 K (3rd yr).

My plan:

1. pay off debt in a reasonable period of time (3-5 yrs). 160K loans at 4.2%.

2. Buy a nice car. Gotta live a little. No more than 40K for a car.

3. Rent for 2 yrs before buying a house.

4. Oh and don't invest any of my own money in the stock market. Just the usual 15.5K for 401K and the 6K in retirement from safe Harbor that my group fully vests.
 
My 401K just lost a 112 bucks. My first installment into 401K was 1512 bucks. And I have lost 112 bucks already. I can only imagine those people who have 1mil+ 401K money. Losing 10-20% would be devastating. Since I am young I will continue to invest in the 401K for the long term.

My assest breakdown: 30% bond index, 20% Fid Contra Fund, 25% Fidelity Freedom 2010 Fund, and 25% Fid Freedom 2025 Fund.

I have lost nearly 7% of my value. I guess in today's market most people have lost money.

For those of us early in our careers you will likely look back at this time as when you made the majority of your money in the market. I am doubling my monthly contributions to 401Ks etc - max em out. My kids custodial accounts are getting every spare dime we have thrown at them. The majority of the boomers made their money as they invested through the late 80's and watched the bull market return in the 90's. Who knows how long this pain will last or how bad it will be. But there are fortunes to made IMHO. Buy low sell high. You just need to have a ten plus year horizon. For those at the end of their careers hopefully you're diversified and aren't to heavily weighted in stocks.
 
Thank you for sharing useful information.I hope this information will be useful for everyone and hope you continue.
 
I just started working in private practice. salary 270K (1st yr), 320K (2nd yr), 370 K (3rd yr).

My plan:

1. pay off debt in a reasonable period of time (3-5 yrs). 160K loans at 4.2%.

2. Buy a nice car. Gotta live a little. No more than 40K for a car.

3. Rent for 2 yrs before buying a house.

4. Oh and don't invest any of my own money in the stock market. Just the usual 15.5K for 401K and the 6K in retirement from safe Harbor that my group fully vests.

What region of the country is this PP in? Are you a new grad or a seasoned vet?
 
For those of us early in our careers you will likely look back at this time as when you made the majority of your money in the market. I am doubling my monthly contributions to 401Ks etc - max em out. My kids custodial accounts are getting every spare dime we have thrown at them. The majority of the boomers made their money as they invested through the late 80's and watched the bull market return in the 90's. Who knows how long this pain will last or how bad it will be. But there are fortunes to made IMHO. Buy low sell high. You just need to have a ten plus year horizon. For those at the end of their careers hopefully you're diversified and aren't to heavily weighted in stocks.

Agree wholeheartedly. For those of us at the beginning of our careers, this is a boon to our future portfolios, assuming of course that your investments reflect your desired asset allocations/goals/etc. This is the time to stay the course and not buy into selling "weak" based on fear. I'm a Boglehead at heart though, and not everybody agrees with this philosophy.
 
To GuP,

I am in the southeast. I am a new grad. Total package is 325K for 1st yr which includes 3mil/6mil occurance based malpractice. Q4 call with 13 wks off. all post call days off with 1 in 4 weekends of call.
 
I was beginning my 1st job and watched the news coverage of that crash with detached fascination. Not so much this time.... It truly IS difficult watching large sums evaporate, knowing that my timeline may not allow me to recoup.
That said, for a new saver these are the priorities:
1. 3-6 mo emergency fund
2. Pay off high interest debt
3. Fully fund retirement contributions

It is quite true that there is generally less risk in the stock market AFTER prices have fallen than BEFORE. Unless this is the "big one" (US 1932 or Japan 1990). Who can say? It hardly matters if you are just starting out as the dollar amounts involved are small on an absolute basis and the timeframe is so long.
Personally, with my shorter time frame-I'm having doubts.
Just remember, the pension/retirement piece is not a place to "get rich" as many of us found out in 2000. You just need to save, have a long time horizon and earn 4-6% real (inflation adjusted) returns.
 
You are correct. But, $170,000 SEEMS like a lot of money to you now. Over the next three years you could have three categories of savings: Student Loans, House down-payment and investment/general savings. This way you can pay off some debt while acquiring money for the other two categories.
You can even vary the percentage you place in each category depending on your priorities.

The stock market can be a dangerous place and the earnings are not guaranteed. Historically, you will earn 7-8% (after taxes and fees) on your returns but there is no guarantee that the market won't slump for a few years. I wouldn't want to carry $170,000 of student debt with me for life.
But, the interest rate is extremely low and you can do better investing in just about anything else. That said, there is great personal satisfaction in paying off those loans. The day that I paid my last loan off felt almost as good as the day I bought my First Mercedes-Benz. A truly momentous occasion with great satisfaction.:)
user_offline.gif



The post above was from 2007 before the market started slumpning. Most disagreed with the above post prefering to invest in the stock market OVER paying down debt. While over thirty years the stock market SHOULD be a better deal the market can under-perform for many years.
 
cant remember who said the quote but remember:

the markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
 
To GuP,

I am in the southeast. I am a new grad. Total package is 325K for 1st yr which includes 3mil/6mil occurance based malpractice. Q4 call with 13 wks off. all post call days off with 1 in 4 weekends of call.

Thanks for the info. Is this average for new grads w/o fellowship in the Southeast or did you secure a super deal? Just curious as a buddy of mine who just graduated in the Northeast (Tristate Area) secured a position nearby for significantly less.
 
Thanks for the info. Is this average for new grads w/o fellowship in the Southeast or did you secure a super deal? Just curious as a buddy of mine who just graduated in the Northeast (Tristate Area) secured a position nearby for significantly less.


It depends. Some jobs are not good at all. Some are good with lots of work. I just the chose a job where i could do lots of regional and avoid cardiac cases.

To answer your question, i think i got a good deal. Eventhough i have only been on the job for 2 months, i like what i see. As far as the stability of the job, who knows?? I have signed a three yr contract and the established partners like what they see out of me (i am quick, efficient and safe). But i can never tell. They could get rid of me after a year without giving a reason.
If i am not board certified by a certain time, they could get rid of me if they want.

So currently i am working on my 6 month emergency fund. I may extend my repayment plan to 25 yrs (lower premium and can save money to pay off debt in lump sum). save some money for a nice car. save some money for an eventual down payment on a new house in 2-3 yrs. Take lots of extra call/shifts during vacation weeks to increase my salary.
 
I've been looking at EGI; it is a small gold and copper mining company with large mines in Mongolia. Perhpas you've been following the Ivanhoe negociations with the mongolian govt regarding windfall taxes. Basically these companies have prospected but are waiting to mine gold until the taxes are cleared up. (If you haven't followed Ivanhoe, they're the biggest miner there and are battling the 68% windfall legislation from 1960-something). IVNH will likely buy EGI once the laws are ironed out. EGI has been estimated to sell for about $3.20 ps. If you can pick it up on a dip below $2.10 its probably a good price.

Too bad NXG went private--they were mining gold and copper simultaneously in both hugera mines. Selling copper (last year) at cost of gold production--that was a sweet margin!

Simplest play on gold is GLD; heck of a 9-month chart!


I'm starting to look at the other metals again too--titanium producers have been beaten up... once Boeing sells some of these flying mostrosities TIE and ATI should bounce back on demand numbers.

so what do you think of the commodities right now? egi, ozn are underpriced no matter what.
tck, rio have all lost a lot and obviously will rebound longterm. but have they reached a bottom?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/104232-junior-gold-miners-are-dirt-cheap?source=yahoo
though solar power sector is also quite a bargain now.
 
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I agree. I've added to my EGI position and will move (back) into titanium (ATI, TIE) at these prices--little longer term than my preferred horizon, but once the global economy starts to move again, these will see immediate appreciation.


so what do you think of the commodities right now? egi, ozn are underpriced no matter what.
tck, rio have all lost a lot and obviously will rebound longterm. but have they reached a bottom?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/104232-junior-gold-miners-are-dirt-cheap?source=yahoo
though solar power sector is also quite a bargain now.
 
I agree. I've added to my EGI position and will move (back) into titanium (ATI, TIE) at these prices--little longer term than my preferred horizon, but once the global economy starts to move again, these will see immediate appreciation.
cool. i'll add egi once my trading account is approved. need to establish the ach connection first. but i looked a bit and these companies really dont have much of an income and gold is not going to increase in price. they're still a great deal, but it's not like you're buying dell 20yrs ago. ive been searching and havent found any companies that would give me such confidence or else i would put all my money(not much) on 1 stock. but im going to add some other sectors. so here is some more info for discussion:
obviously solar power is something to watch. companies like stp lost 90% and they have real contracts and all. but longterm i dont think it's a good idea(though short-term wouldnt be surprised if it doubled in price but still not investing in it) because a private company nanosolar will outcompete. so i would instead bet my money on energy storage(several articles from that same author on seekingalpha) and on the company that invests into nanosolar: aes. but meanwhile i wonder how will solar power and nuclear power fare in the next 2-3yrs? as opposed to gas and coal. or aes vs nrg?

also havent done any research on this medical company and dont know if it's been mentioned on sdn but on most websites it's highly recommended as a bargain: cmed.
 
also i wonder about investing into stocks on a margin. like some of the "large caps" like vip and rio tend to move in the same direction as the market. so i wouldnt mind putting into those on the long-term if i could triple whatever they earn. but i heard that there are "margin calls" where someone could take away your stock if you owe them money. and sadly i wont have enough money for a margin account for now. i hope to make quick $ with penny stocks like egi before the big stocks like vip and rio really start moving. then i'll put all money in there.
 
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