Stock market 2021

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BLADEMDA

BLADEMDA

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This thread is about investment ideas and the market for 2021. Any discussion about politics is only Due to fiscal and market implications.

For example, the 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus plan is a bad idea because it will cause inflation and increase our national debt. This may devalue our currency and drive up the cost of goods. Gold is a hedge against this devaluation as is owning great multinational companies.

The stock market looks a bit overheated at this point with a pullback likely soon. Despite the wasteful govt spending Bill ( 1 trillion too much) I’m still bullish on stocks particularly foreign and emerging equities.

With US stocks at very high valuations I’m looking at oil and gas etfs as I think Biden wants gasoline at $4.00 per gallon very soon to push consumers away from fossil fuels.
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With poor returns in bonds/CDs etc, investing in the market is the only way to keep up with inflation even if it is overvalued. Otherwise you will get left in the dust.

I agree that international markets are undervalued and I'm continuing to allocate a certain percentage toward VXUS each month.

I know this isn't a cryptocurrency thread and I am honestly skeptical in general but it has been catching my eye. I know bitcoin is exploding (nearly $40,000) but ethereum seems to be positioning itself as a key player. It is hard to ignore all of the huge companies who are getting into this space. I haven't officially purchased any but it seems like I will bite the bullet sooner rather than later.
 
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anonperson said:
With poor returns in bonds/CDs etc, investing in the market is the only way to keep up with inflation even if it is overvalued. Otherwise you will get left in the dust.

I agree that international markets are undervalued and I'm continuing to allocate a certain percentage toward VXUS each month.
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Generally agree. For those with a long enough time horizon. Can’t emphasize that enough.

If we get deflation instead of inflation, you will wish you had more bonds/CDs. (The kind of bonds that don’t default in a deflationary environment anyway).

International stocks are less richly valued than domestic. Doesn’t make them cheap.

What if the next decade of investing is about not losing purchasing power as opposed to obtaining a net real return?
-Rick Ferri
 
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I'm going to keep riding that VTSAX train or similar for the year of 2021.
 
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dr doze said:
If we get deflation instead of inflation, you will wish you had more bonds/CDs. (The kind of bonds that don’t default in a deflationary environment anyway).
Click to expand...
A true statement, but...
I think the Fed has made it clear it will never stop inflating the money supply as the bandaid of choice.
dr doze said:
What if the next decade of investing is about not losing purchasing power as opposed to obtaining a net real return?
-Rick Ferri
Click to expand...
Very strong possiblity.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
This thread is about investment ideas and the market for 2021. Any discussion about politics is only Due to fiscal and market implications.

For example, the 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus plan is a bad idea because it will cause inflation and increase our national debt. This may devalue our currency and drive up the cost of goods. Gold is a hedge against this devaluation as is owning great multinational companies.

The stock market looks a bit overheated at this point with a pullback likely soon. Despite the wasteful govt spending Bill ( 1 trillion too much) I’m still bullish on stocks particularly foreign and emerging equities.

With US stocks at very high valuations I’m looking at oil and gas etfs as I think Biden wants gasoline at $4.00 per gallon very soon to push consumers away from fossil fuels.
Click to expand...
I am more bullish than I have been since about 2015 - when stocks have become and remained extremely overvalued (P/E of S&P has basically been above 25 since - a historically crazy high number).

I was sure that there was going to be a pullback with a BIDEN presidency. I mean, there was a huge TRUMP rise - and I assumed this was because very rich hedge fund managers are very conservative and believe that conservative policies help (in fact, studies have shown that just a belief in how the economy is doing has strong correlation to who is in office vs their own political beliefs). So I suspected the opposite was going to happen. I assumed that people would take money out to avoid the huge tax additions that will be sure to come with a BIDEN administration.

However, I am suspect of my previous thesis. There seems to be other greater things in play.

Some bullish indicators for me are the yield curve, which is steeper than it has been in a long time, possibly ever. The stimulus package will likely give most of the money to banks (which all stimulus packages seem to do), and there seems to be no turning back on the Gramm-Leach-Bliley ACT. This became exquisitely apparent when the GME short squeeze revealed how leveraged hedge funds are, and how their leverage can effect stock price. There is no consequence to them for their really stupid leverage plays, so they will continue - and this will continue to stretch evaluations to the moon. Banks have more money in reserve than they have in a very long time. They also are doing the same crazy things they did before 2008 - and they know for a fact that the government will bail out their irresponsible gambling.
 
I’m going to keep buying stocks and my net worth is higher than ever, but I don’t feel any richer because I’m seeing inflation in many things I’m trying to buy. Sure milk and eggs aren’t that much more but if you’re an attending early in your career, what are you spending your money on? Housing, childcare/education for your kids, healthcare etc are all more expensive than last year. Travel is probably cheaper if you’re willing to do it. And if you’re investing aggressively, buying your securities is more expensive.

So for me, all the things I want to spend my money on are more expensive.
 
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ambiturner said:
I’m going to keep buying stocks and my net worth is higher than ever, but I don’t feel any richer because I’m seeing inflation in many things I’m trying to buy. Sure milk and eggs aren’t that much more but if you’re an attending early in your career, what are you spending your money on? Housing, childcare/education for your kids, healthcare etc are all more expensive than last year. Travel is probably cheaper if you’re willing to do it. And if you’re investing aggressively, buying your securities is more expensive.

So for me, all the things I want to spend my money on are more expensive.
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Instead of our pay going up with inflation they are constantly making little cuts. So our income is going down in real terms every year. It's a far cry from the 90s.
 
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I think we have 2 quarfers of positive returns, then Biden's policies will start taking hold. Taxes will have increased, even heard some talk of a retroactive tax like under Clinton. For anyone old enough to remember, it really sucked. Wife and I were on salary, same W2 income for the year before. We went from getting 2 k back in taxes, to owing 30 k. 15 for the retroactive tax hike and 15 we would owe for the current tax year. Then I had to adjust withholdings for the upcoming year to pay the extra 15k I would now owe. I don't see this as an advantage for the economy. My one son works for drillers and Range Resources announced no new fracks in our area after August. I guess my son will have to make solar panels since he likely lose his job thanks to the current crowd in DC. At least that's what they said he should do.
 
I see a pretty steady slowly upward trend barring disaster with the coronavirus variants. Jobs will recover as the economy reopens. Consumption will go up as people save less and travel and go out more. I don’t see a huge boom as a lot of this upside is priced in already. We’re “printing” money but so is everyone else. So unless the whole global economic system collapses were still in good shape. No huge tax hike is getting through a 50/50 senate. I could see some sort of compromise bill that brings back SALT in exchange for a bump on marginal rates over a million or something like that.

I’m early career and keeping my long term funds in 70/10/20 US stock, bonds, international and plan to continue the ride. Short/mid term (down payment savings, etc) in VTMFX (50/50 fund).
 
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The inflation rate in the United States between 1995 and today has been 74.05%, which translates into a total increase of $74.05. This means that 100 dollars in 1995 are equivalent to 174.05 dollars in 2021.

A dollar earned today is like 58 cents in 1995. With bonds paying so little in interest rates these days the best way to preserve your purchasing power is by owning equities or possibly Bitcoin.
 
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For those that want to retire at age 50 they would need to save up $5 million to draw down 3% each year or $150,000. That $150,000 would also likely be cut in half in terms of purchasing power over the next 20 years ( that is assuming a good scenario vs one where the US dollar loses 2/3 of its purchasing power).

The numbers heavily favor semi-retirement for most as the weak U.S. Dollar means you will need even more money to retire.
 
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AMPE - very hopeful pharma company. Has already rewarded me handsomely.
 
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GaseousClay said:
I forgive all those who mocked me and called this tulip mania on here. It’s not too late to jump on. Market cap of bitcoin isn’t even 10% of gold yet! All aboard!
Click to expand...

Stop man. They don’t wanna hear from those who saw where this is going. Imma crip dance a bit. But my DMs are always open if egos won’t allow some to publicly ask questions. I did get a few and shout out to them. Good luck.
 
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Cathy wood buying genomic plays, I would venture to guess they will do really well next 5-10 years
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Stop man. They don’t wanna hear from those who saw where this is going. Imma crip dance a bit. But my DMs are always open if egos won’t allow some to publicly ask questions. I did get a few and shout out to them. Good luck.
Click to expand...

I hope it works out for you guys, I really do. But I have no FOMO. I don't need a big score from bitcoin to win the game.
 
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Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Stop man. They don’t wanna hear from those who saw where this is going. Imma crip dance a bit. But my DMs are always open if egos won’t allow some to publicly ask questions. I did get a few and shout out to them. Good luck.
Click to expand...

Just like the gme investors were c walking all over the place last week? When big wins come easily, big losses are even easier. It's been seen over and over again.
 
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GassYous said:
Just like the gme investors were c walking all over the place last week? When big wins come easily, big losses are even easier. It's been seen over and over again.
Click to expand...

That’s a pretty lazy comparison. Bitcoin has been embraced by both the people and institutions for what it has become. This is not a short squeeze or anything even close to what $gme is. This is a new form of currency and store of value that is just beginning. Tulip mania lasted a month or so bitcoin has been here for years and it’s just getting started. Just my opinion not financial advice 😬
C3BAD8A9-7BCF-4604-AC21-F2B5DFC3BA85.png
 
TeslaCoil said:
AMPE - very hopeful pharma company. Has already rewarded me handsomely.
Click to expand...


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Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF (GNOM)

The Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF (GNOM) seeks to invest in companies that potentially stand to benefit from further advances in ...
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Any opinion on this ETF? I wouldn't mind letting $100K ride on this ETF knowing the future is rosy for Genomics.
 
I see 3 viable investment vehicles for the exploding bioscience sector:

1. GNOM
2. ARKG
3. BBH

I'm hesitant to buy into a red hot ETF like ARK. Any opinions on these 3?
 
GaseousClay said:
That’s a pretty lazy comparison. Bitcoin has been embraced by both the people and institutions for what it has become. This is not a short squeeze or anything even close to what $gme is. This is a new form of currency and store of value that is just beginning. Tulip mania lasted a month or so bitcoin has been here for years and it’s just getting started. Just my opinion not financial advice 😬
View attachment 329499
Click to expand...
Can we agree bitcoin is a currency with no government enforcement, no other use besides currency, and has nothing proprietary that would block an unlimited number of new currency competitors? I personally wouldn't touch it other than short term technical trades, but that's just me.
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Can we agree bitcoin is a currency with no government enforcement, no other use besides currency, and has nothing proprietary that would block an unlimited number of new currency competitors? I personally wouldn't touch it other than short term technical trades, but that's just me.
Click to expand...
Well saying that then, you can say couldn't someone say another metal is more valuable than gold and if everyone agrees then that replaces it? Bitcoin is THE cryptocurrency that has been universally accepted as best store of value hence it is available on every crypto exchange, not to mention RH, paypal, square, etc. The finite amt of bitcoin will continue to make it valuable, along with the security of the blockchain to make it trustworthy and the shear number of people interested in it especially the younger generation. I can't imagine many younger rich investors go into Gold over Bitcoin now and into the future.
 
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The stock market is red hot right now flooded with cheap money due to the Fed and unlimited stimulus by the Federal govt. With Covid relief estimated at around 5-6 trillion the money has to end up somewhere and that typically means the stock market. Zero percent interest rates with Bonds/Savings paying in the 0.5%-2.0% range. I can see a high probability of inflation next year once things return to normal. The "free money" won't be free once the cost to the average consumer becomes clearer. Even liberal Democrats know Biden is printing/borrowing too much money.

I suspect we will see a devalued dollar worth about 1/2 its 2021 value in 10-12 years. This isn't a good thing for middle America.


 
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My posts are meant to be factual not political in this thread. With the debt hitting 28 trillion by the end of 2021 there is concern among investors about the US Dollar, inflation and protecting assets. Like many others, I think buying great multinational companies even at these prices makes fiscal sense because of those concerns.

A dollar in cash (2021) does not look very good over ten years (2031) vs other forms of currency or dividend paying equities. I don't know when inflation pressures will start hitting US Consumers but the risk is real and the massive spending spree has many concerned about how the USA will pay the interest on the debt once interest rates return to 3.5%.
 
The USA won't default on its debt. Instead, the value of the currency will be cut in half (or more) if the Feds decide to print their way out of the debt crisis.
Ultimately, the purchasing power of our currency is at risk if the debt continues on the Biden/Sanders/AOC trajectory. Trump added trillions to the debt but Biden plans on doubling the amount Trump spent.
 
What does this have to do with stocks and investing? Everything. The flood of cheap money drives up equity prices. It also makes people worried about the US Dollar which is why Gold and Bitcoin are way up. For the mom and pop saver who relies on CDs/savings accounts the interest rates are at historic lows. Again, this pushes people into the stock market.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
www.nerdwallet.com

Guide to Early Retirement: How to Retire Early - NerdWallet

Learn five steps you need to take to retire early, then calculate when you might be able to retire with our early retirement calculator.
www.nerdwallet.com www.nerdwallet.com

For those that want to retire at age 50 they would need to save up $5 million to draw down 3% each year or $150,000. That $150,000 would also likely be cut in half in terms of purchasing power over the next 20 years ( that is assuming a good scenario vs one where the US dollar loses 2/3 of its purchasing power).

The numbers heavily favor semi-retirement for most as the weak U.S. Dollar means you will need even more money to retire.
Click to expand...
One should draw down 4% while remaining heavily invested in the market in multiple currencies and exchanges. Only investinv in the US is putting all your eggs in one basket.
 
Lol this is literally a thread created to s**t talk COVID relief and Biden's economic policies under the guise of a stock market discussion. Bravo, sir.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
What does this have to do with stocks and investing? Everything. The flood of cheap money drives up equity prices. It also makes people worried about the US Dollar which is why Gold and Bitcoin are way up. For the mom and pop saver who relies on CDs/savings accounts the interest rates are at historic lows. Again, this pushes people into the stock market.
Click to expand...

Stock owners have greatly benefited from the Fed's cheap money. Biden's deficit spending will also likely be good for stockholders. The market has priced this. Stock valuations are at the 99th percentile of historical valuations. Those who are stock heavy have more assets than they "deserve". Give thanks, take chips off the table, lower equity allocation and buy TIPs despite the fact that they are also pricey.
 
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Screenshot_20210208-195812_Chrome.jpg


Even trump's economic advisor knows that the risk of going too small with the stimulus outweighs the risk of too big.
 
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dr doze said:
Stock owners have greatly benefited from the Fed's cheap money. Biden's deficit spending will also likely be good for stockholders. The market has priced this. Stock valuations are at the 99th percentile of historical valuations. Those who are stock heavy have more assets than they "deserve". Give thanks, take chips off the table, lower equity allocation and buy TIPs despite the fact that they are also pricey.
Click to expand...

Yes, the investor class is chomping at the bit with every stimulus package. Nobody benefits more from the stimulus than rich people.
 
nimbus said:
Yes, the investor class is chomping at the bit with every stimulus package. Nobody benefits more from the stimulus than rich people.
Click to expand...
Investors get more mileage from easy money from the Fed. Fiscal stimulus from the White House and Congress is more uncertain in its consequences for investors. Handing poor people money to buy things like food and rent might not do much for financial assets.
 
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I heard today that 1% of the WORLDS energy is being used to mine BITCOIN.

That is CRAZY, and unsustainable.

I would look at other cryptocurrencies.
 
BLADEMDA said:
I see 3 viable investment vehicles for the exploding bioscience sector:

1. GNOM
2. ARKG
3. BBH

I'm hesitant to buy into a red hot ETF like ARK. Any opinions on these 3?
Click to expand...
I like ARK. Cathie is smart!

Every time she speaks, she warns of a pullback. I think she is concerned about this, as we all are. But as she says, no one see's the fifth risk. It's the 1-4 we make plans for.
 
BLADEMDA said:
My posts are meant to be factual not political in this thread. With the debt hitting 28 trillion by the end of 2021 there is concern among investors about the US Dollar, inflation and protecting assets. Like many others, I think buying great multinational companies even at these prices makes fiscal sense because of those concerns.

A dollar in cash (2021) does not look very good over ten years (2031) vs other forms of currency or dividend paying equities. I don't know when inflation pressures will start hitting US Consumers but the risk is real and the massive spending spree has many concerned about how the USA will pay the interest on the debt once interest rates return to 3.5%.
Click to expand...
zero interest, or better negative interest is going to come and stay.

Time to buy land? Even bill gates has become a farmer.
 
This thread reads like the infomercials between segments of daytime fox news: The librals are printing money for welfare and only (land/bitcoin/gold/fotm actively managed fund/god/stopping abortion) can protect what's yours.

If massive inflation is a huge risk and we honestly believe this instead of gambling on random stores of value that may not track inflation and are vulnerable to theft why not hedge into whatever currency is not at risk via forex and print your own money. Think china got it right? Short usd for the yuan. If all currencies are at risk then does it really matter?
 
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chessknt said:
This thread reads like the infomercials between segments of daytime fox news: The librals are printing money for welfare and only (land/bitcoin/gold/fotm actively managed fund/god/stopping abortion) can protect what's yours.

If massive inflation is a huge risk and we honestly believe this instead of gambling on random stores of value that may not track inflation and are vulnerable to theft why not hedge into whatever currency is not at risk via forex and print your own money. Think china got it right? Short usd for the yuan. If all currencies are at risk then does it really matter?
Click to expand...
Maybe a diversified assortment of partial ownership in companies that produce essential goods and services for profit is an option.

Just spitballin
 
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chessknt said:
This thread reads like the infomercials between segments of daytime fox news: The librals are printing money for welfare and only (land/bitcoin/gold/fotm actively managed fund/god/stopping abortion) can protect what's yours.
Click to expand...
Are you saying Blade is the SDN version of William Devane buying his gold from Rosland Capital?
chessknt said:
If all currencies are at risk then does it really matter?
Click to expand...
Yes, yes it does. Hence the need for storing value.
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Are you saying Blade is the SDN version of William Devane buying his gold from Rosland Capital?
Click to expand...

If outfits like Rosland actually believe that gold was such a great investment, why they are they actively shilling it instead of quietly hoarding it?
 
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