Stock Market 2022 except we just talk about stocks

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GassYous said:
Damn this market just keeps dropping
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I have lost 7 figures already and I am not worried at all. My cash on the sidelines is just about ready to get deployed. Please read this thread and you will read my comments. This is the time to buy after Putin takes the capital city in 1-3 days. The West will cave in and Ukraine will belong to Russia. Putin will squash the rebels and kill quite a lot of people but our stock market will recover. The second major event is a 0.5% interest rate hike coming in March. Still, I would be a buyer of equities below the S and P of 4200 and I am hoping to start buying at 4180. 4180 until 3900 would be my target range for adding to my positions.


www.cnbc.com

Dow closes at its lowest level of 2022 so far, S&P 500 drops further into correction territory

Stocks fell sharply once again Wednesday, as escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine push the major averages to fresh lows for the year so far.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Wednesday’s decline pushed the Nasdaq closer to bear market territory, as it sits more than 18% from its November closing record.
 
Today is the day to start buying stocks. I don't know where the "low" will settle but I expect stocks to take a beating over the next 24-72 hours then snap back at some point. If you have any extra cash this is the time to put it to work. Those growth stocks are going on sale and the entire market is being reset to a fair valuation.

www.cnbc.com

Ukraine's foreign minister says Kyiv struck by 'horrific Russian rocket strikes'

The U.S. and U.K. responded by announcing another round of sanctions, which aim to limit Moscow's access to the global economy.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com


www.cnbc.com

Jim Cramer expects an epic 'snapback rally' for stocks if inflation or Russian aggression gets resolved

"We get a break in either one of these ... then you're going to get a snapback rally of epic proportions," the "Mad Money" host said.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
1645705569958.png
 
BLADEMDA said:
Today is the day to start buying stocks. I don't know where the "low" will settle but I expect stocks to take a beating over the next 24-72 hours then snap back at some point. If you have any extra cash this is the time to put it to work. Those growth stocks are going on sale and the entire market is being reset to a fair valuation.

www.cnbc.com

Ukraine's foreign minister says Kyiv struck by 'horrific Russian rocket strikes'

The U.S. and U.K. responded by announcing another round of sanctions, which aim to limit Moscow's access to the global economy.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com


www.cnbc.com

Jim Cramer expects an epic 'snapback rally' for stocks if inflation or Russian aggression gets resolved

"We get a break in either one of these ... then you're going to get a snapback rally of epic proportions," the "Mad Money" host said.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
I sure hope so!
 
BLADEMDA said:
Today is the day to start buying stocks. I don't know where the "low" will settle but I expect stocks to take a beating over the next 24-72 hours then snap back at some point. If you have any extra cash this is the time to put it to work. Those growth stocks are going on sale and the entire market is being reset to a fair valuation.

www.cnbc.com

Ukraine's foreign minister says Kyiv struck by 'horrific Russian rocket strikes'

The U.S. and U.K. responded by announcing another round of sanctions, which aim to limit Moscow's access to the global economy.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com


www.cnbc.com

Jim Cramer expects an epic 'snapback rally' for stocks if inflation or Russian aggression gets resolved

"We get a break in either one of these ... then you're going to get a snapback rally of epic proportions," the "Mad Money" host said.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...

If you care about the stock market, are you hoping for a quick Ukrainian submission to Russian occupation or do you want to see a well-funded insurgency that kills a lot of Ukrainians and Russians and gets Putin stuck in a quagmire of his own design?
 
BLADEMDA said:
Today is the day to start buying stocks. I don't know where the "low" will settle but I expect stocks to take a beating over the next 24-72 hours then snap back at some point. If you have any extra cash this is the time to put it to work. Those growth stocks are going on sale and the entire market is being reset to a fair valuation.

www.cnbc.com

Ukraine's foreign minister says Kyiv struck by 'horrific Russian rocket strikes'

The U.S. and U.K. responded by announcing another round of sanctions, which aim to limit Moscow's access to the global economy.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com


www.cnbc.com

Jim Cramer expects an epic 'snapback rally' for stocks if inflation or Russian aggression gets resolved

"We get a break in either one of these ... then you're going to get a snapback rally of epic proportions," the "Mad Money" host said.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...

Will real estate prices suffer as well or continue to rise?
 
I'm not sure today is the bottom. We could see just even more explosive inflation to come with russias role in oil and commodities. I think we could be looking at a recession with high inflation coming. I think it's going to be a dark decade. The best days of the country may actually be behind us. People always say if you think the country will continue to advance and the economy will grow, then invest. Right now I'm not sure 20 years fom now we will be better off than now.
 
dabears505 said:
I'm not sure today is the bottom. We could see just even more explosive inflation to come with russias role in oil and commodities. I think we could be looking at a recession with high inflation coming. I think it's going to be a dark decade. The best days of the country may actually be behind us. People always say if you think the country will continue to advance and the economy will grow, then invest. Right now I'm not sure 20 years fom now we will be better off than now.
Click to expand...

I think there is some validity to this sentiment. A big reason we have seen incredible economic growth and security the past half century is because of the spread of American leadership and democracy to more countries and markets around the world. What Putin is doing is less about bringing Ukraine back into the Soviet Union and more about challenging American leadership. Make no mistake, China is watching with a great deal of interest right now. We could be witnessing the beginning of the end of American global leadership.

Also, if a stray bomb hits the Chernobyl exclusion zone, humanity could be in for a wild ride.
 
dabears505 said:
I'm not sure today is the bottom. We could see just even more explosive inflation to come with russias role in oil and commodities. I think we could be looking at a recession with high inflation coming. I think it's going to be a dark decade. The best days of the country may actually be behind us. People always say if you think the country will continue to advance and the economy will grow, then invest. Right now I'm not sure 20 years fom now we will be better off than now.
Click to expand...

The best part about being a millennial is knowing that as soon as you show up to the party everyone has already left.

God what a poorly timed generation of people.

More debt. The most education and yet probably the least amount of return for it. ****ty job prospects. Just getting into the market oh wait recession. Real estate most expensive it’s been in years. Also you and everyone else will be supporting an entire generation that’s in the midst of retirement.

But at least you can watch a war in real time on your phone between consults!
 
GravelRider said:
I think there is some validity to this sentiment. A big reason we have seen incredible economic growth and security the past half century is because of the spread of American leadership and democracy to more countries and markets around the world. What Putin is doing is less about bringing Ukraine back into the Soviet Union and more about challenging American leadership. Make no mistake, China is watching with a great deal of interest right now. We could be witnessing the beginning of the end of American global leadership.

Also, if a stray bomb hits the Chernobyl exclusion zone, humanity could be in for a wild ride.
Click to expand...

i think its due to rise of internet and technology
 
stocks not going to be rapid decline. its going to be slow decline / recession. when fed starts ramping up hikes, earnings will crash, stocks will follow.

this mass exodus from jobs + inflation is leading to record salary increases, that IMO will massively strain businesses. they can afford to pay massive salaries when economy is good, but recession will burn them over the next decade. my friend in tech just landed a job w total comp of 550 (up from his current comp of 250k), after 5 years of working in tech. my lawyer and finance friends are getting double digit raises, upward of 30% . imagine what that does to a companys net income...........

inflation will improve to 3-4% over next 12-24 months. but i cant imagine peoples raises be 'transitory'
 
anbuitachi said:
stocks not going to be rapid decline. its going to be slow decline / recession. when fed starts ramping up hikes, earnings will crash, stocks will follow.

this mass exodus from jobs + inflation is leading to record salary increases, that IMO will massively strain businesses. they can afford to pay massive salaries when economy is good, but recession will burn them over the next decade. my friend in tech just landed a job w total comp of 550 (up from his current comp of 250k), after 5 years of working in tech. my lawyer and finance friends are getting double digit raises, upward of 30% . imagine what that does to a companys net income...........

inflation will improve to 3-4% over next 12-24 months. but i cant imagine peoples raises be 'transitory'
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I had heard Amazon literally doubled management salaries. I can’t imagine them taking that away after the cats out of the bag.
 
anbuitachi said:
consider selling and putting it in bond or high interest savings account and then going back in later.

i do not think we reached bottom. i exited one of my positions for a 20000$ loss
Click to expand...

Really? You need to get so diamond on those hands ✋💎🤚

Just for clarification, I bought some more VTSAX today. I had some cash and figured it was as good a time as any.
 
My plan went well today with 6 figures of purchases by noon. I expect we could get a retest tomorrow as traders like to sell on Fridays during period of uncertainty. I am a buyer again tomorrow below 4180. I believe in the USA and the companies that make the world run. I am not a pessimist and think the year will end up slightly positive. There is money to be made by investing for the long term. This is still an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.

As for Ukraine they are pretty much screwed as Putin will have the country by next week and installed a puppet leader. Focus on your life and the fact that the stock market is your path to monetary success and retirement.

Gold, Bitcoin, etc are just a small part of a diversified portfolio. The real "meat" of your wealth will likely come from blue chip stocks and profitable technology companies. We are still early in the game in terms of the technology revolution so it is definitely not too late to be buying innovation at a fair price.
 
David Sekera, Morningstar’s chief U.S. market strategist expected continued volatility in the short-term depending on where events in the Ukraine lead. “The next step for the markets will be to evaluate the potential impact of the sanctions that the U.S. and its allies will impose against Russia and gauge for any signs of further escalation or de-escalation,” he says.

But for investors in U.S. stocks, Sekera notes that their portfolios are relatively insulated. U.S. businesses generally do not have significant exposures to either the Ukraine or Russia, he says, “so we do not expect much of a direct impact on US stocks from the sanctions.” However, he adds, “depending on the additional sanctions that are likely to be implemented, the risk to US stocks would be for heightened inflationary costs.”

James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Minneapolis-based institutional research outfit Leuthold Group, notes there is a lot of emotion wrapped up in the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the markets. But, he says, “I think this could be the final washout event of the correction.”

Paulsen points to a number of sentiment indicators showing investors have become particularly bearish on stocks, including the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s VIX index, which measures volatility, and the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey.

“I like the pessimism as a contrary indicator,” Paulsen says.

“Underneath this, there are extraordinarily good fundamentals,” he says. “We’ve had strong corporate results and I think that continues. Even with rates rising, they are still at very low levels around the world.
 
You don't need to get fancy to make money. If you buy the VTI or an S and P 500 fund or Vanguard Mega Cap fund that will do the trick. I think exposure to technology/innovation should be 1/4 to 1/3 of a young investor's portfolio. There is so much money to be made in that area. Longer term we are early on in the tech explosion. As for what you should be buying I recommend ETFs or Index funds with additional exposure to undervalued blue chip stocks. Of course, you can just stick with ETFs but I like owning the big dogs as well:

Amazon.com (AMZN)
Morningstar Rating for Stocks (as of Feb. 16, 2022): 4 stars

“We are maintaining our fair value estimate for wide-moat Amazon at $4,100 per share, and despite shares rising 14% after hours, we still view shares as undervalued. We think the highlight of the quarter was Amazon's plan to raise prices in the U.S. on Prime to $139 from $119, beginning on Feb. 18 for new members, underscoring Amazon's pricing power and highlighting Prime as a revenue driver. Meanwhile, Amazon will continue to invest heavily in Amazon Web Services, or AWS, fulfilment capacity and delivery, although we see these beginning to ease in the second half of 2022. Overall, we do not see issues with the long-term story as Amazon remains well positioned to prosper from the secular shift toward e-commerce and the public cloud over the next decade.
 
anbuitachi said:
consider selling and putting it in bond or high interest savings account and then going back in later.

i do not think we reached bottom. i exited one of my positions for a 20000$ loss
Click to expand...
I sold back enough to get me completely out of use of margins (I mistakenly mistimed some dips)… I know rookie mistake, but today provided me with some relief and saw an opportunity to reposition my portfolio. I feel like I’m in a much better position to handle the next set of waves now.
 
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GassYous said:
VTI would have been better as vtsax gets bought at the end of the day and vti is bought at any time. Nearly 2% difference in price over the course of the day from the beginning to the end and even more in the middle.
Click to expand...

I do both. I don’t know why I do, I just do. VTSAX just sounds way cooler that VTI.
 
RadsWFA1900 said:
The best part about being a millennial is knowing that as soon as you show up to the party everyone has already left.

God what a poorly timed generation of people.

More debt. The most education and yet probably the least amount of return for it. ****ty job prospects. Just getting into the market oh wait recession. Real estate most expensive it’s been in years. Also you and everyone else will be supporting an entire generation that’s in the midst of retirement.

But at least you can watch a war in real time on your phone between consults!
Click to expand...

At least they gave you your avocados back.

nypost.com

US lifts ban on avocados from Mexico after drug cartel threat

The US has lifted a Mexican avocado ban, which started after American inspectors working in the nation were threatened by drug cartels, officials said.
nypost.com nypost.com
 
This is irrational market. I am happy that the market is back Even though I sustained losses. No conviction and the rally seems a head fake. I bought XOM and running 5% loss on it. Mu also loss. My shorts were ill timed and did not expect the steep losses yday. My hedges are also loosing. All my extra cash was invested too soon.

Does not make any sense when oil Commodity goes up but the underlying stocks don’t. Whales buying put activity on oil stocks without a care for losses, one can probably make a ton of money shorting big oil stocks, (Shorting oil and commodities hides inflation and helps stocks). Also there is a huge damage to the sentiment and many of the stocks have no bidders. Don’t think the bottom is tomorrow. A lot of damage means margin calls and more selling. There is some problem with Corporate bond, HYG.? Karen was explaining on CNBC. If I understood the risk for companies that have huge debts and no returns are going to be in trouble. Even dividend yielding stocks are suspect as they may be borrowing to pay the dividend.

Before investing have an exit strategy. Also if you do sell, talk to a tax advisor for harvesting all the tax losses.
 
undalay said:
This is irrational market. I am happy that the market is back Even though I sustained losses. No conviction and the rally seems a head fake. I bought XOM and running 5% loss on it. Mu also loss. My shorts were ill timed and did not expect the steep losses yday. My hedges are also loosing. All my extra cash was invested too soon.

Does not make any sense when oil Commodity goes up but the underlying stocks don’t. Whales buying put activity on oil stocks without a care for losses, one can probably make a ton of money shorting big oil stocks, (Shorting oil and commodities hides inflation and helps stocks). Also there is a huge damage to the sentiment and many of the stocks have no bidders. Don’t think the bottom is tomorrow. A lot of damage means margin calls and more selling. There is some problem with Corporate bond, HYG.? Karen was explaining on CNBC. If I understood the risk for companies that have huge debts and no returns are going to be in trouble. Even dividend yielding stocks are suspect as they may be borrowing to pay the dividend.

Before investing have an exit strategy. Also if you do sell, talk to a tax advisor for harvesting all the tax losses.
Click to expand...
There was so much speculation in 2021 on stocks without earnings. These are the losers of 2022. The best blue chip companies including large cap growth tech will come back because they have real earnings. The "froth" is coming out of the markey HYG represents the risky bonds of the riskiest assets. Instead, focus on good companies at a fair price. Morningstar keeps track of "fair value" and things are settling back to fair value range based on earnings.

The stocks without bidders are those with growth, high sales to price multiples and no earnings. Those are to be avoided for good companies at fair prices.
Never bet against the USA longer term. Inflation is a real concern and will affect earnings but companies will adjust by increasing prices as long as they have a product the consumer needs or wants to buy. Apple, Amazon, Google, etc are all such companies. Costco, Walmart, Home Depot, etc are another set. That's why you can buy the S and P 100 or S and P 500 and sit back while those companies make you money.

Don't fret over the pull-backs but rather embrace them by setting aside cash for just such opportunities. This is a great time to be adding solid stocks to your portfolio. What I can tell you is that you will make a lot of money buying blue chip stocks today over the next 5 years.
 
On days when the market has dropped recently, what has been your strategy?

a. Add more money to my account.
b. Hold steady with what I've got.
c. Leave my money in, but be beside myself with worry.
d. Yank my money; I wouldn't be able to stand any more losses.

I have posted my answer to the above question. What did you do recently when the market pulled back by 10% (S and P 500) and 20% (Nasdaq)?

This is the time to truly asses your risk tolerance.
 
Bought ~$12,000 worth of VTI this morning when the market was down a few hundred points before work.

Saw some patients and did 2 c sections and got home. Surprised the market rebounded temporarily like it did but it just reminds me that buy and hold total market funds is the way to go. Don't have to overthink things and I don't have the time to put in on researching the next big thing. At least not yet.

Buy and hold. Even if the market crashes 50%, I'm not selling.

With inflation, the only way to build wealth with the least amount of work is the market. Money in the bank is just getting eaten away by inflation.
 
BLADEMDA said:
On days when the market has dropped recently, what has been your strategy?

a. Add more money to my account.
b. Hold steady with what I've got.
c. Leave my money in, but be beside myself with worry.
d. Yank my money; I wouldn't be able to stand any more losses.

I have posted my answer to the above question. What did you do recently when the market pulled back by 10% (S and P 500) and 20% (Nasdaq)?

This is the time to truly asses your risk tolerance.
Click to expand...

Slow add. Depends on what else is going on and whether i think market has more room to fall, which i believe it does at the moment. I mentioned above but i think there will be pain in next 12 months or so as earnings do worse and worse due to rising inflation and interest rate. Everything is speculation until earnings come out. Before that there will be days with wild swings.
 
anonperson said:
Bought ~$12,000 worth of VTI this morning when the market was down a few hundred points before work.

Saw some patients and did 2 c sections and got home. Surprised the market rebounded temporarily like it did but it just reminds me that buy and hold total market funds is the way to go. Don't have to overthink things and I don't have the time to put in on researching the next big thing. At least not yet.

Buy and hold. Even if the market crashes 50%, I'm not selling.

With inflation, the only way to build wealth with the least amount of work is the market. Money in the bank is just getting eaten away by inflation.
Click to expand...

problem with timing the market is you will still be down if it goes below the price point you bought it at. the question is what is your next step? i think timing the market is for traders =\. but i guess if you got 12k to drop on a red day then you probably dont worry about the little things 🤣
 
anbuitachi said:
Slow add. Depends on what else is going on and whether i think market has more room to fall, which i believe it does at the moment. I mentioned above but i think there will be pain in next 12 months or so as earnings do worse and worse due to rising inflation and interest rate. Everything is speculation until earnings come out. Before that there will be days with wild swings.
Click to expand...

earnings tend to go up with inflation as inflation is measuring the cost of things we buy. The companies selling those things are quite happy to take in higher sales prices per item. The potential bugaboo for companies is if their costs are rising faster than their revenues, but inflation in and of itself is good for revenue.
 
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Mman said:
earnings tend to go up with inflation as inflation is measuring the cost of things we buy. The companies selling those things are quite happy to take in higher sales prices per item. The potential bugaboo for companies is if their costs are rising faster than their revenues, but inflation in and of itself is good for revenue.
Click to expand...

depends on the company. increasing costs may decrease purchases. some companies wont be affected as much but others probably will be. i predict the shortage in workers resulting in huge increases in salary/cost will outweigh potential increased revenue due to increase in prices. i imagine companies may try to increase price to maintain similar margin since cost of revenue goes up as well. but salaries will increase costs as well and earnings will suffer

the latest round of earnings were already pretty trash, including FB, amazon, and many others
 
anbuitachi said:
depends on the company. increasing costs may decrease purchases. some companies wont be affected as much but others probably will be. i predict the shortage in workers resulting in huge increases in salary/cost will outweigh potential increased revenue due to increase in prices. i imagine companies may try to increase price to maintain similar margin since cost of revenue goes up as well. but salaries will increase costs as well and earnings will suffer

the latest round of earnings were already pretty trash, including FB, amazon, and many others
Click to expand...

4th quarter earnings for S&P 500 were up significantly and operating margins remained near record high

(also, Amazon nearly doubled EPS estimates this past quarter though a good part of that was from mark to market accounting on investment in Rivian)
 
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