Stock Market 2022 except we just talk about stocks

[BLADEMDA]

The December projections showed a more aggressive monetary policy tightening path, with the median forecast rising to a new interest rate peak of 5%-5.25%, up from 4.5%-4.75% in September. That would mean Fed officials expect to raise rates by half a percent more than they did three months ago, when the Fed’s economic predictions were last released.

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[BLADEMDA]

This is my guess for 2023 as well. Too many variables for anyone to predict the markets.

 

[narcotics999]

The key is the Fed. I expect the Fed will raise interest rates to 5.25% and keep them there for all of 2023. That will make any rally before the final quarter of 2023 highly unlikely. The "street" expects a terminal rate of 5.0% and the Fed to pivot in late 2023. The street will be wrong so 2023 will likely be a flat year.

I truly hope the Fed does pivot by the summer of 2023 but hope isn't a strategy and inflation will remain sticky for 2023.

T bills for the whole 2023. Sleep well and live longer.

 

[Dr. Rude]

T bills for the whole 2023. Sleep well and live longer.

Stockholders eat better (mostly). Cash/Bond holders sleep better (mostly)

 

[deleted1116990]

T bills for the whole 2023. Sleep well and live longer.

This is what I've done. I was right to get out of stocks a year ago, but hurt myself by holding cash hoping to see good buying opportunities that never materialized. AT the time, yields weren't really worth my trouble. That has now changed. Yes, I made money for the year (which is overall a huge win in this environment) trading options, but at this point with <1 year expirations on treasuries paying 5% I'm throwing in the towel. Most of my money is now in these at least earning something, and the rest will be in precious metals, which I think will shine this year after getting no love last year, and short term trading.

If stock index valuations are non-insane when my treasuries mature, I will reconsider then. If not, will rebuy short-term.

This is not a Boglehead market.

The buying and holding I will be doing will be when TLT gets into the low 90s and GLD around 160ish. Technically I think we will see pullbacks to these levels.

Shorting hypergrowth/ARKK nonsense is also shooting fish in a barrel, but don't get carried away.

 

[deleted1116990]

Protection in 2023:

How can you protect your portfolio if for the sake of discussion we assume the upcoming year or two continue to be ugly? A common risk in all of these ideas is if you are wrong you will limit or completely miss out on gains.

1) Cash. In pure nominal dollars obviously the safest place to be. Biggest risk is inflation which will reduce the actual value of holding cash.

2) Gold. Personally I think it's about the surest future bet at this point. Other than meaningless dips, I just don't see how in our current debt and inflation environment that this can go down and stay down.

3) Go defensive. More boring steady stuff, PG PEP KR MRK etc, less flashy rockets like Nvidia.

4) Shorting. Traditional shorting of a garbage company in a downtown can be very lucrative. It is also incredibly risky if you are wrong in timing or fundamentals because the potential losses are unlimited as opposed to purchasing an asset where the loses are capped at 100%.

You can be completely correct in your financial analysis and literally get wiped out. Carvana presently sits below 5. Imagine all that money you'd make if you shorted it at 100? Well, are we talking April, 2022 on its way to below 5, or May, 2020 on its way to 370? If you took a large greedy position in May, 2020 margins calls would have eventually taken possibly almost your entire portfolio with no chance of riding it out, and this is despite the fact that you were 100% correct in concluding this stock was overpriced garbage. As Barb would say on Shark Tank, And for that reason I'm out.

5) Buying put options. Infinitely safer than shorting a stock because your losses are capped, but you are placing a bad bet that favors the casino as there is a hefty premium in time, strike, and price of options.

6) My preferred method of making money on the demise of the market/sector/stock is a short ETF. You purchase the ETF so losses are therefore capped and you avoid option premiums, although there typically are small fees involved.

7) Selling covered calls on the long positions. This can be a very nice dividend on your holdings that are treading water. Ideally search out larger premiums, shorter expiration dates, and strike prices far enough out that you can live with selling the stock at that price as that is the price your stock appreciation is capped at during the time period your the option is active.

I rarely short a stock and always a very small dollar figure with a hair trigger if I do. I'm only a little more receptive to buying puts, but for the most part I am currently active in methods 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7, but I do also still own very significant long positions in the market.

Please add other advantages/disadvantages I may have missed, as well as other methods of profiting or surviving a downtown.

Best post on here in a while. HODLers would be well advised to consider this.

 

[narcotics999]

This is what I've done. I was right to get out of stocks a year ago, but hurt myself by holding cash hoping to see good buying opportunities that never materialized. AT the time, yields weren't really worth my trouble. That has now changed. Yes, I made money for the year (which is overall a huge win in this environment) trading options, but at this point with <1 year expirations on treasuries paying 5% I'm throwing in the towel. Most of my money is now in these at least earning something, and the rest will be in precious metals, which I think will shine this year after getting no love last year, and short term trading.

If stock index valuations are non-insane when my treasuries mature, I will reconsider then. If not, will rebuy short-term.

This is not a Boglehead market.

The buying and holding I will be doing will be when TLT gets into the low 90s and GLD around 160ish. Technically I think we will see pullbacks to these levels.

Shorting hypergrowth/ARKK nonsense is also shooting fish in a barrel, but don't get carried away.

I am buying laddered T bills. 3, 6, 9, 12 months.

TLT has a good chance to 90 again. Good idea to buy some then. The country can't afford long-term high interest rate.

 

[pastafan]

Purchase I bonds today or wait for next rate reset in May?

 

[Dr. Rude]

Purchase I bonds today or wait for next rate reset in May?

Or wait a few months until you have a pretty good idea what the new variable rate will be. I will be waiting for now but I expect to be purchasing before May 1.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Purchase I bonds today or wait for next rate reset in May?

I expect the same ibond interest rate or lower by a bit in May. Why not wait for the latest inflation data and if it ticks up or down you have your answer. I expect it to tick down to say 6.5% or so. That means you should be buying iBonds this month. Remwber, eventually these ibonds will be renewing at around the actual inflation rate which should be 4% or so by 2024. I emphasize "should be" as I have no idea if the actual rate will be 3% or 4% but what I do know is that I can defer paying taxes on my ibond profits until I cash them in giving them a leg up over cash/CDs or T bills.

December 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on January 12, 2023, at 8:30 A.M.

 

[BLADEMDA]

I like ibonds because I can defer the tax bill on them giving me a nice break until retirement. This allows me to compound the interest so I prefer an ibond at 4% or even 3.5% over a T-bill at 4.5%.

Federal Reserve Board - H.15 - Selected Interest Rates (Daily) - April 18, 2024

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

 

[BLADEMDA]

As investors seek to insulate their portfolio from rising inflation and the bumpy stock market, many are turning to Series I savings bonds (I bonds). Right now, I bonds are paying an interest rate of 6.89%. But don't just focus on the investment return. I bonds also have important tax advantages for owners. Interest earned on I bonds is exempt from state and local taxation, but owners can also defer federal income tax on the accrued interest for up to 30 years.

Taxes on I Bonds in 9 Common Situations

Series I bonds are a popular savings investment that can also help you save on taxes…but the federal income tax consequences can be complex.

www.kiplinger.com

 

[BLADEMDA]

Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year

Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year

www.cnbc.com

Anyone impressed enough to buy Tesla stock at $120 per share?

Tesla Car Sales Grow Slower Than Expected, Amplifying Concerns (Published 2023)

Wall Street has grown decidedly pessimistic about Tesla, fearful that Elon Musk, its chief executive, is too focused on Twitter.

www.nytimes.com

Tesla sales could get a boost after its cars became eligible for federal incentives on Jan. 1. A new law abolished a limit on the number of vehicles from any one manufacturer that were eligible for tax credits of up to $7,500. Tesla had used up its quota.

Tesla cars made at the company's factories in Texas and California also meet the requirement that vehicles must by manufactured in the United States, Canada or Mexico to be eligible for credits.

 

[BLADEMDA]

• Also includes zero-emission vans, SUVs, and trucks with MSRPs up to $80,000
• New credit also expands to commercial fleet customers
  • Includes separate qualifications and limits
• The federal EV tax credit will be available to individuals reporting adjusted gross incomes of $150,000 or less, or $300,000 for joint filers

Five-Seat Tesla Model Y Does Not Qualify For New Federal Tax Credit

That's because not all Tesla Model Y vehicles are classified as SUVs; the five-seat variants are considered cars and therefore hit with a $55,000 MSRP limit.

insideevs.com

 

[pastafan]

I expect the same ibond interest rate or lower by a bit in May. Why not wait for the latest inflation data and if it ticks up or down you have your answer. I expect it to tick down to say 6.5% or so. That means you should be buying iBonds this month. Remwber, eventually these ibonds will be renewing at around the actual inflation rate which should be 4% or so by 2024. I emphasize "should be" as I have no idea if the actual rate will be 3% or 4% but what I do know is that I can defer paying taxes on my ibond profits until I cash them in giving them a leg up over cash/CDs or T bills.

December 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on January 12, 2023, at 8:30 A.M.

I believe some I bonds had a fixed rate of return plus inflation. Recently rate is 0 plus inflation

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year

Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year

www.cnbc.com

Anyone impressed enough to buy Tesla stock at $120 per share?

Tesla Car Sales Grow Slower Than Expected, Amplifying Concerns (Published 2023)

Wall Street has grown decidedly pessimistic about Tesla, fearful that Elon Musk, its chief executive, is too focused on Twitter.

www.nytimes.com

Tesla sales could get a boost after its cars became eligible for federal incentives on Jan. 1. A new law abolished a limit on the number of vehicles from any one manufacturer that were eligible for tax credits of up to $7,500. Tesla had used up its quota.

Tesla cars made at the company's factories in Texas and California also meet the requirement that vehicles must by manufactured in the United States, Canada or Mexico to be eligible for credits.

Still looks to have more retracement to go. The stock price went on an insane unjustified run in 2019 and sits well above the long term trendline which already had a rapid doubling time of less than 3 years. I can't promise you it will return to it's trendline, but at present I would still clarify it as a falling sword.

 

[BLADEMDA]

I believe some I bonds had a fixed rate of return plus inflation. Recently rate is 0 plus inflation

The composite rate for I bonds issued from November 2022 through April 2023 is 6.89%.

Here's how we got that rate:

Fixed rate	0.40%
Semiannual (1/2 year) inflation rate	3.24%
Composite rate formula: [Fixed rate + (2 x semiannual inflation rate) + (fixed rate x semiannual inflation rate)]	[0.0040 + (2 x 0.0324) + (0.0040 x 0.0324)]
Gives a composite rate of	[0.0040 + 0.0648 + 0.0001296]
Adding the parts gives	0.0689296
Rounding gives	0.0689
Turning the decimal number to a percentage gives a composite rate of	6.89%

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Still looks to have more retracement to go. The stock price went on an insane unjustified run in 2019 and sits well above the long term trendline which already had a rapid doubling time of less than 3 years. I can't promise you it will return to it's trendline, but at present I would still clarify it as a falling sword.

Down 17.
I never fight a horrible looking chart, and that's a horrible looking chart. We all have caught a sword at some point and learn the hard way.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I made money for the year (which is overall a huge win in this environment)

Yes, a monster win for sure

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Is this runup a buying opportunity or selling opportunity? I'm somewhat on the fence but still not increasing positions and won't be in foreseeable future. Good arguments for both sides, but too much downside risk for me.

For some things after this runup subsides like Tesla and chips I think it's a selling opportunity. For other defensive sectors and companies on more solid footing that have been beaten up we may have seen bottom or at least close, but with the obvious caveat that everything gets tossed out the window in a crash.

I still think gold has some of the lowest risk to reward out there. Clearing 2000 imo is the next step to a major move. Big mega tech I think are due at some point for a nice bounce but I'm not convinced the value is there to sustain after a bounce. Will be interesting to see how the market reacts when downward earnings revisions come in, ie currently priced in or not?

Still 20% cash (money market), 20% gold, and looking for a nice short (etf) after this runup plays out.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I wonder if the so called "hardliners" Republicans actually hold McCarthy's feet to the fire with their demands of balanced budgets, fixed debt ceiling etc (nice idea but Congress in the end always caves), how would that affect markets?

With responsible government spending Inflation would certainly come down, or at least not rise as quickly. "Printing money" would slow or stop completely. The economy would at least initially be hit hard, but aren't all ponzis painful when they stop?

So would markets act positively or negatively to both less inflation and less stimulus? Near term would probably be bad while long term would be better off, which is exactly why it never happens. We aren't a people of the mindset to painfully fix today so that tomorrow is brighter.
-which is basically what Blade always says, push comes to shove, the Fed will bury us in printed cash and bail us and the markets out every single short term crisis, creating a larger problem down the road until we eventually run out of road.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Not convinced on this tech oversold rally. Bought a decent amount into SOXS with index around 2700. Looking for the index around 2500-2525.

 

[linkin06]

Not convinced on this tech oversold rally. Bought a decent amount into SOXS with index around 2700. Looking for the index around 2500-2525.

I thought leveraged indexes aren’t meant to be bought and held but to hedge short term. 3x loss is hard to dig out and could actually zero out.

Volatility decay: Don't hold leveraged ETFs long-term — A Frugal Doctor

Volatility decay is a phenomenon where due to volatility in the price of an underlying, investing with leverage can backfire even if the long-term price trends in the correct direction. This can be easily observed with popular triple-leveraged index ETFs.

www.afrugaldoctor.com

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I thought leveraged indexes aren’t meant to be bought and held but to hedge short term. 3x loss is hard to dig out and could actually zero out.

Volatility decay: Don't hold leveraged ETFs long-term — A Frugal Doctor

Volatility decay is a phenomenon where due to volatility in the price of an underlying, investing with leverage can backfire even if the long-term price trends in the correct direction. This can be easily observed with popular triple-leveraged index ETFs.

www.afrugaldoctor.com

Yes, looking for 2525 is very short term. I expect the index to break below 2000 at some point.

3X loss would be ugly. 3X gain is very pretty. Where tech is now I find zeroing out very unlikely, but I always ask myself, if this does go to zero is it a critical loss to my portfolio that will hinder life in any way that I can't live with? That answer should always be no. So if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and life goes on.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Yes, looking for 2525 is very short term. I expect the index to break below 2000 at some point.

3X loss would be ugly. 3X gain is very pretty. Where tech is now I find zeroing out very unlikely, but I always ask myself, if this does go to zero is it a critical loss to my portfolio that will hinder life in any way that I can't live with? That answer should always be no. So if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and life goes on.

I may have struck out on this on. SOX index not behaving and just broke upwards.

 

[nimbus]

Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year

Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year

www.cnbc.com

Anyone impressed enough to buy Tesla stock at $120 per share?

Tesla Car Sales Grow Slower Than Expected, Amplifying Concerns (Published 2023)

Wall Street has grown decidedly pessimistic about Tesla, fearful that Elon Musk, its chief executive, is too focused on Twitter.

www.nytimes.com

Tesla sales could get a boost after its cars became eligible for federal incentives on Jan. 1. A new law abolished a limit on the number of vehicles from any one manufacturer that were eligible for tax credits of up to $7,500. Tesla had used up its quota.

Tesla cars made at the company's factories in Texas and California also meet the requirement that vehicles must by manufactured in the United States, Canada or Mexico to be eligible for credits.

Sad story (radiologist tries to murder-suicide his own family) but Teslas are apparently pretty good cars.

Father Charged With Attempted Murder After Tesla Plunges 250 Feet off California Cliff, Flips, and Lands on Its Wheels. "An Absolute Miracle."

A man has been charged with attempted murder and child endangerment after driving his vehicle off a cliff with his wife and two young children inside. Dharmesh Patel, 42, is accused of deliberately driving the Tesla Model Y off a cliff called the Devil's Slide near San Francisco on Monday...

www.yahoo.com

 

[anbuitachi]

moonbeams made too much money and retired?

 

[RadOncDoc21]

moonbeams made too much money and retired?

Damn millionaires!

 

[RadOncDoc21]

So are we just not going to talk about the last few days or is that bad luck?

 

[anbuitachi]

So are we just not going to talk about the last few days or is that bad luck?

imo, bear rally. i sold a february covered call on my amazon shares. im deep in the money now. wasnt expecting such a huge rally so soon. but i do think we will be back down again. this isnt the end. but the process is longer than people predict. bank earnings today are still very strong as they have been for a while now. all eyes on tech in a couple weeks.

banks gave us glimpse that purchasing power remains very strong. people are loaded with cash reserves. credit card use is going up but still way below 2019. we are still very strong.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Sad story (radiologist tries to murder-suicide his own family) but Teslas are apparently pretty good cars.

Father Charged With Attempted Murder After Tesla Plunges 250 Feet off California Cliff, Flips, and Lands on Its Wheels. "An Absolute Miracle."

A man has been charged with attempted murder and child endangerment after driving his vehicle off a cliff with his wife and two young children inside. Dharmesh Patel, 42, is accused of deliberately driving the Tesla Model Y off a cliff called the Devil's Slide near San Francisco on Monday...

www.yahoo.com

That's one of the craziest stories I've seen. Those pictures 😲
Plunged 250 feet? No serious injuries? Double 😲😲

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

imo, bear rally. i sold a february covered call on my amazon shares. im deep in the money now. wasnt expecting such a huge rally so soon. but i do think we will be back down again. this isnt the end. but the process is longer than people predict. bank earnings today are still very strong as they have been for a while now. all eyes on tech in a couple weeks.

banks gave us glimpse that purchasing power remains very strong. people are loaded with cash reserves. credit card use is going up but still way below 2019. we are still very strong.

I'm right there with you with Feb. covered calls, strike of 95. A bounce on any of these major companies that got smashed is inevitable, actually now in a more favorable price to roll them forward. I've looked at the low 100s as a ceiling for a while, a strong support/resistance level that I think will hold for a good while. Now if I'm wrong and Amazon just blows though to the next level or two of major resistance, then I have to seriously reconsider the whole idea of this being a just bear market rally.

I still think there will be some premium to roll forward for a while, and if the stock gets taken you can start milking some puts sales at the same strike.

I have CVX, TRV, and NSC with sold puts well out of the money. Solid companies that I'd gladly own on a huge pullback. I like this whole Be the Casino concept.

 

[anbuitachi]

I'm right there with you with Feb. covered calls, strike of 95. A bounce on any of these major companies that got smashed is inevitable, actually now in a more favorable price to roll them forward. I've looked at the low 100s as a ceiling for a while, a strong support/resistance level that I think will hold for a good while. Now if I'm wrong and Amazon just blows though to the next level or two of major resistance, then I have to seriously reconsider the whole idea of this being a just bear market rally.

I still think there will be some premium to roll forward for a while, and if the stock gets taken you can start milking some puts sales at the same strike.

I have CVX, TRV, and NSC with sold puts well out of the money. Solid companies that I'd gladly own on a huge pullback. I like this whole Be the Casino concept.

haha 95 strike here as well.
i dont think amazon earnings will be good, but who knows. direction of this rally will depend on earning season imo, barring any major macro stuff.


but who knows. bitcoin skyrocket to 21000. market changing maybe

 

[okayplayer]

The hubris of some people in here blows me away. You guys all know more than the quants getting paid 8 figures per year at the hedge funds…

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

The hubris of some people in here blows me away. You guys all know more than the quants getting paid 8 figures per year at the hedge funds…

You're aware that the majority of "pros" do worse than the market averages despite their massive 8 figure paychecks, right? Now that's hubris!!

 

[GassYous]

The hubris of some people in here blows me away. You guys all know more than the quants getting paid 8 figures per year at the hedge funds…

You mean the guys who can't consistently beat the market and make their money from taking huge chunks of principal?

 

[okayplayer]

I don’t invest with those people and pay their fees BUT I also don’t predict the market (while assuming I know more than institutional investors whose cumulative knowledge is already priced in to the market) like people here do.

 

[ERRES2288]

I don’t invest with those people and pay their fees BUT I also don’t predict the market (while assuming I know more than institutional investors whose cumulative knowledge is already priced in to the market) like people here do.

Most of the predictions here the market has priced in months ago

 

[anbuitachi]

The hubris of some people in here blows me away. You guys all know more than the quants getting paid 8 figures per year at the hedge funds…

i dont really get it. never claim to be better than hedge funds. they of course can do better than me, way better.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I don’t invest with those people and pay their fees BUT I also don’t predict the market (while assuming I know more than institutional investors whose cumulative knowledge is already priced in to the market) like people here do.

What is wrong with having an educated hunch which way things are going? Sometimes right sometimes wrong, but it saved me from buying anything at the ridiculous levels they were at. No Carvanas, Pelotons, Teslas, Facebook etc. regardless how much the experienced pros pumped them.

The experts paid 8 figures were saying buy Amazon at 180 and some garbage named Upstart at 400. I'm holding at a 105 Amzn price. Google at 86. Selling calls on both (Google strike 100) that may or may not work out (can't really lose either way), because my opinion is tech isn't ready to rocket off again. Took a short term decking on SOXS. Chugging along on long term Dow type holds. Will destroy 2023 with gold no matter what any institutional(ized) guy on cnbc says.

I see nothing wrong with people who have followed the market for years offering their views and insight on this board. Otherwise what's the point of the thread, to just say yay on good days and shucks on bad days?

 

[abolt18]

i dont really get it. never claim to be better than hedge funds. they of course can do better than me, way better.

That's just it. They CAN'T! Not if you are invested in the total stock market fund. And even if they can, it's only temporary! Study after study has shown time and time again that active management (i.e. what all those suckers are doing) is a loser to passive index funds over the long run. And all the silly predictions people make on here are just that: silly. Because if even the pros who spend their entire career trying to beat the market can't consistently do it, then how are a bunch of doctors who spend most of their work life caring for patients going to be able to make any accurate predictions about the market? They're not.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

No prediction, just straight fact that the S&P is at a serious crossroads. Right on trendline and coming off a higher low for the first time in a long time. It's getting very very interesting.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

That's just it. They CAN'T! Not I'd you are invested in the total stock market fund. And even if they can, it's only temporary! Study after study has shown time and time again that active management (i.e. what all those suckers are doing) is a loser to passive index funds over the long run. And all the silly predictions people make on here are just that: silly. Because if even the pros who spend their entire career trying to beat the market can't consistently do it, then how are a bunch of doctors who spend most of their work life caring for patients going to be able to make any accurate predictions about the market? They're not.

Relax then, open a cream soda, and go read some medical journals. Other stock geeks and math nerd chart geeks like talking about it.

Start a different stock thread and post:
"Only invest in total market index funds. Please only reply with repeating that same statement.
The end "

 

[abolt18]

Relax then, open a cream soda, and go read some medical journals. Other stock geeks and math nerd chart geeks like talking about it.

Start a different stock thread and post:
"Only invest in total market index funds. Please only reply with repeating that same statement.
The end "

I am relaxed. I find significant amusement in reading these threads. One day I'd like to go back through and quote all of @BLADEMDA 's posts and compare them to reality to see how he (and others) did. Just haven't found that much free time yet.

But I also feel like someone needs to post the VTSAX and chill sort of stuff on here intermittently to remind or inform those who know nothing or are new to investing that there's a better way, and that all these predictions are nothing more than wild guesses.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

This is still the only market trader and institutional fund manager that gets my attention. The rest are noise.

 

[anbuitachi]

That's just it. They CAN'T! Not if you are invested in the total stock market fund. And even if they can, it's only temporary! Study after study has shown time and time again that active management (i.e. what all those suckers are doing) is a loser to passive index funds over the long run. And all the silly predictions people make on here are just that: silly. Because if even the pros who spend their entire career trying to beat the market can't consistently do it, then how are a bunch of doctors who spend most of their work life caring for patients going to be able to make any accurate predictions about the market? They're not.

managing tens of Billions and trying to consistently beat sp500 is 1 thing, managing 100k and trying to beat sp500 is another. yes studies consistently show hedgefunds on average do worse. but that doesnt mean if a hedge fund manags just my money they'll do worse.

warren buffet once said if he managed tiny amounts of money he can grow it like 50% a year

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

…so the last thread got a bit off topic but the dip is deepening with potential for more this week with Tesla earnings coming out. Where is the bottom?

Interesting, just came across this, the initial post of the thread exactly one year ago. Tesla over 300, long way to bottom.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

haha 95 strike here as well.
i dont think amazon earnings will be good, but who knows. direction of this rally will depend on earning season imo, barring any major macro stuff.


but who knows. bitcoin skyrocket to 21000. market changing maybe

Five point after hours fake out on the MSFT earnings. I feel good about 95 being a sweet spot to roll calls for a while. I think that 100-105 ceiling is real.

I don't know how familiar you are with options, so forgive me if this is basic to you, but you're aware we can just keep rolling out the options and collecting the premium regardless if they expire in the money with AMZN at 97, 99, 102 etc. Of course at some point deep in the money there isn't much premium to collect.

You should also be able to set a spread where you buy and sell the option as a team for a set net credit, instead of first buying the February option and then selling the March or April separately. Again, not insulting you if this is very basic. I'm still deciding if I roll out now a month or two or roll the dice a little and wait till after earnings.

 

[anbuitachi]

Five point after hours fake out on the MSFT earnings. I feel good about 95 being a sweet spot to roll calls for a while. I think that 100-105 ceiling is real.

I don't know how familiar you are with options, so forgive me if this is basic to you, but you're aware we can just keep rolling out the options and collecting the premium regardless if they expire in the money with AMZN at 97, 99, 102 etc. Of course at some point deep in the money there isn't much premium to collect.

You should also be able to set a spread where you buy and sell the option as a team for a set net credit, instead of first buying the February option and then selling the March or April separately. Again, not insulting you if this is very basic. I'm still deciding if I roll out now a month or two or roll the dice a little and wait till after earnings.

Yea there's not much premium with in the money. So sometimes I just let it expire and collect my premium and gains. Maybe sell a put. But if I want to hold onto it and diminish my total premium then I'll roll it.

Why do you want to roll? What's your reasoning? Have you had your shares for a long time? Or do you just want to collect a bit of premium

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I don't understand how you diminish total premium by rolling? I roll at the same strike so the only result has to be increasing total premium. I think it's stuck in a trading range for a while and collecting risk-free premium is easier than timing the bounces (I understand capital gains in stock price are capped with covered calls, but the premium in your pocket is yours forever). Tech stocks like Amazon pay nice premiums. Other stocks often not worth it, very low premiums.