Stock Market 2022 except we just talk about stocks

[Dr. Rude]

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Another way of looking at things:

We still could have a long way to go.

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[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

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I don't know which is more accurate, but with inflation, rising interest rates, and heading into a recession with earnings revisions downward, it's hard for me to believe the market currently is very undervalued.

 

[anbuitachi]

the problem that needs to fix is the labor market. right now, workers still have significant power over employers so employers are forced to offer high wages and compete. once that is reversed, then we'll be going up

 

[anbuitachi]

My limit order on the Jan 23 $85 put is still sitting there at 1.80. Kept going up all day now at $2.30. Would have been a nice 25% intraday profit. Missed the buy by a few minutes. I was right, but oh well. Less attractive entry now. Not aware of SOXS, I will check it out thx.

Also, regarding metals. Gold and silver market getting interesting. Not currently moving in tandem. GLD up, SLV down. If GDX pulls back below 25 I will be adding. Dollar likely has some more short term bleeding though. Trying to figure out how to trade this.

you bought 85$ jan 23 puts??? how did you come up with these numbers. amazon was 98$ on 11/15 when you posted this. now its down to 85$.
your 85 put is thru the roof now!

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

you bought 85$ jan 23 puts??? how did you come up with these numbers. amazon was 98$ on 11/15 when you posted this. now its down to 85$.
your 85 put is thru the roof now!

Because the chart on it absolutely sucked. Just heading straight down the trendline.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I'll be the Grinch and tell you It's coming!!!

A ‘rapidly growing death spiral.’ How our $31.3 trillion national debt is getting even more expensive. - The Boston Globe

Like a consumer grappling with a massive credit card balance, the federal government is paying more just for the interest on the national debt. Government projections show those interest costs tripling from $399 billion this year to $1.19 trillion in 2032.

www.bostonglobe.com

"I assure she can sink,
And she will.
It is a mathematical certainty."
-Titanic

Only Math and Father Time will remain eternally undefeated...

Everyone have a wonderful Holiday
🎅🎄⛄🦌🕎

 

[nopain1234]

I'll be the Grinch and tell you It's coming!!!

A ‘rapidly growing death spiral.’ How our $31.3 trillion national debt is getting even more expensive. - The Boston Globe

Like a consumer grappling with a massive credit card balance, the federal government is paying more just for the interest on the national debt. Government projections show those interest costs tripling from $399 billion this year to $1.19 trillion in 2032.

www.bostonglobe.com

"I assure she can sink,
And she will.
It is a mathematical certainty."
-Titanic

Only Math and Father Time will remain eternally undefeated...

Everyone have a wonderful Holiday
🎅🎄⛄🦌🕎

I assume you’re sitting in cash? Or should I say gold

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I assume you’re sitting in cash? Or should I say gold

Roughly 20% gold
20% cash
Equities divided among long huge boring Dow stocks, Mega tech stocks selling covered calls with tight strike prices, and occasional short term trade short positions.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

This guy will go down as a financial genius during the debt death spiral

 

[BLADEMDA]

I saw Dan Niles on TV recently and he made money this year overall by shorting tech stocks. He says the market will drop another 20-30 percent lower to around 3,000. He is still shorting certain tech stocks and thinks stocks are heading south. I agree with him but believe 3200-3300 will be the bottom and once we retest the June low I’m in big time. The key is to be patient and let the stocks come in.

 

[nopain1234]

So blade you think this correction should be treated like any other? I was quick to jump in on the pandemic. This one has another flavor to it. The outlook on the world is scarier than it’s ever been imo. I may stay out in cash and see how this one shakes out

 

[BLADEMDA]

So blade you think this correction should be treated like any other? I was quick to jump in on the pandemic. This one has another flavor to it. The outlook on the world is scarier than it’s ever been imo. I may stay out in cash and see how this one shakes out

Your choice to stay in CASH which is a loser over time. Do I think the market will gain 10-12% per year like in the past? No. Do I think buying stocks below 3600 is a good idea? Yes. The easy ,money will be from the bottom up to 4100 or so when the market recovers in 12-18 months. I want the easy money. The hard money is from 4100-4800 which is all the all time high. We may not see 4800 for another 3 years.

 

[nopain1234]

Your choice to stay in CASH which is a loser over time. Do I think the market will gain 10-12% per year like in the past? No. Do I think buying stocks below 3600 is a good idea? Yes. The easy ,money will be from the bottom up to 4100 or so when the market recovers in 12-18 months. I want the easy money. The hard money is from 4100-4800 which is all the all time high. We may not see 4800 for another 3 years.

By cash I mean treasuries, CDs etc. Nothing sexy but with rising rates could give you a 6% ROI. I’m truly scared about this admin and overall state of the world. Hope I’m wrong but think something big is on the horizon. If so, the market isn’t where you want to be

 

[anbuitachi]

Roughly 20% gold
20% cash
Equities divided among long huge boring Dow stocks, Mega tech stocks selling covered calls with tight strike prices, and occasional short term trade short positions.

How big is ur emergency fund or cash in bank

 

[nopain1234]

Am I alone in thinking this is the scariest time to invest in our lifetimes?

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Am I alone in thinking this is the scariest time to invest in our lifetimes?

Oh Hail No.
Each month/year is a little scarier than the previous. We are definitely closer to the can than we've ever been, but I can't tell you when we actually run out of road to kick it down.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Am I alone in thinking this is the scariest time to invest in our lifetimes?

No. In 2007/2008 the market was cratering and the system was on the verge of collapse. Without govt. intervention, the country would have entered a depression. 2022/2023 isn't that scary at all when placed in the perspective of history. What is scary is the US debt and massive/trillions of dollars being printed over the past 3 years. No nation has ever printed that much money in such a short time frame. We are fortunate inflation is only 7% with such a huge, irresponsible level of spending on top of our existing debt.

 

[nopain1234]

The fact that we are heavily funding the Ukraine/Russia war tells me everything I need to know.

This amongst other things makes me wanna sit on the sidelines

 

[Dr. Rude]

After Christmas dinner, many of us have been upgraded to “overweight”.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

No. In 2007/2008 the market was cratering and the system was on the verge of collapse. Without govt. intervention, the country would have entered a depression. 2022/2023 isn't that scary at all when placed in the perspective of history. What is scary is the US debt and massive/trillions of dollars being printed over the past 3 years. No nation has ever printed that much money in such a short time frame. We are fortunate inflation is only 7% with such a huge, irresponsible level of spending on top of our existing debt.

While it may not happen imminently, don't you think we're heading to an 07/08 situation except exponentially worse when it occurs?

If it doesn't occur this go around I think the DOW 29,000 lows are an excellent technical bounce point going forward.

 

[narcotics999]

No. In 2007/2008 the market was cratering and the system was on the verge of collapse. Without govt. intervention, the country would have entered a depression. 2022/2023 isn't that scary at all when placed in the perspective of history. What is scary is the US debt and massive/trillions of dollars being printed over the past 3 years. No nation has ever printed that much money in such a short time frame. We are fortunate inflation is only 7% with such a huge, irresponsible level of spending on top of our existing debt.

The world will have a reset. When it will happen or whether I can survive it, I don't know.

 

[nopain1234]

No. In 2007/2008 the market was cratering and the system was on the verge of collapse. Without govt. intervention, the country would have entered a depression. 2022/2023 isn't that scary at all when placed in the perspective of history. What is scary is the US debt and massive/trillions of dollars being printed over the past 3 years. No nation has ever printed that much money in such a short time frame. We are fortunate inflation is only 7% with such a huge, irresponsible level of spending on top of our existing debt.

I tend to agree. The actual financial predicament of 08 was worse, but the political climate right now is downright scary.

We printed I think half the total currency in 2-3 months. I don’t think they can raise rates high enough to correct for inflation due to the national debt. Tough spot to be in.

The current administration is a disaster, name one worse in US history. We keep passing trillion dollar bills just for the F of it despite runaway inflation. I’m not gonna get political here but a man made virus was the culprit of the pandemic. All of this stinks.

I’m going to 100% cash tomorrow and buying a T-bill to see where this dumpster fire settles out.

 

[nopain1234]

You guys think a real estate crash is also on the horizon?

 

[GassYous]

I tend to agree. The actual financial predicament of 08 was worse, but the political climate right now is downright scary.

We printed I think half the total currency in 2-3 months. I don’t think they can raise rates high enough to correct for inflation due to the national debt. Tough spot to be in.

The current administration is a disaster, name one worse in US history. We keep passing trillion dollar bills just for the F of it despite runaway inflation. I’m not gonna get political here but a man made virus was the culprit of the pandemic. All of this stinks.

I’m going to 100% cash tomorrow and buying a T-bill to see where this dumpster fire settles out.

Doubt it was man made. And the trillion dollar bill printing started with trump

 

[nopain1234]

Doubt it was man made. And the trillion dollar bill printing started with trump

To combat the pandemic by the man made virus. It was either that or have America collapse. The money printing was caused by the virus.

You can be blind if you want to…

 

[BLADEMDA]

You guys think a real estate crash is also on the horizon?

No. Real Estate is a hard asset. You need to own hard assets with Inflation and a depreciating currency. I have been through quite a few real estate bear markets and this is just another one. I see no "crash" as more people need houses than the current supply. Once Interest rates settle back down to around 5% the housing market will stabilize once again.

FEAR is a huge factor in this stock market. FEAR causes one to act irrationally and go to 100% cash, CDs, Bonds or T Bills. I own all of those as part of a diversified portfolio. If you scare this easily then I highly recommend a 50/50 or 60/40 portfolio so you stay invested. In order to win the game you need to be in the game. I saw this exact same scenario in 2008 when Panic/Fear was even more extreme than today. Those who stay invested, better yet bought stocks, made a lot of money.

I don't expect 2023-2024 to be a great year. I predict 3500 as low then we end 2023 around 4100. I do think we get a nice bounce in 2024 and ultimately get back close to 4800 in 2025. This is jus ta blip for a long term investor. I recommend you keep a portion of your portfolio in SAFE investments so you can sleep well at night. For others who don't mind the volatility, I recommend 80-90% equities (young investors under the age of 45). Sure, you can buy T bills like this old man or even CDs but that won't get you to your goal of FIRE. Each person must know his/her risk tolerance and the only way to know that is to actually live through a bear market like today. Are you selling or holding pat? Are you buying more equities when they are on sale? One can argue the prices aren't low enough but they are getting there so hold the line and stay diversified.

The sky isn't falling in 2023 and you will look back on this post in 6 months time and regret selling equities unless you buy them back at exactly the right time.

 

[BLADEMDA]

 

[okayplayer]

 

[BLADEMDA]

What Is Next for Markets?​

Ned Davis Research chief global investment strategist Tim Hayes, for instance, switched his recommendation to an underweight position in global equities Monday, shifting 10% to cash. The firm now recommends allocating 50% to stocks (5% underweight), 35% to bonds (market weight), and 15% to cash (5% overweight). Hayes called NDR’s August upgrade to a 5% overweight in global equities “premature” as the June 16 low didn’t hold.

He noted that clients are increasingly concerned about the possibility of a long and severe secular bear market as opposed to a short and mild bear within a secular bull market.

Richard Bernstein Advisors told clients in a note that the “probability for negative returns is the highest under the relatively certain scenario we envision.”

“We prefer to structure portfolios for the only two certainties we see for the next 6-12 months: the Fed will be tightening and profits will be decelerating,” said the firm’s analysts. “This combination of events is not typically a good one for equity markets, and we now have our lowest equity beta and highest cash levels in years.”

Even the most optimistic of strategists concede it will take clearer evidence that the Fed’s rate policies are working before there is a possibility that the central bank can lighten its grip on the economy, which would allow the stock market to return to an upward flight path.

 

[BLADEMDA]

 

[BLADEMDA]

 

[BLADEMDA]

51. "Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases."

52. "Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."

53. "The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble...We want to buy them when they're on the operating table."

54. "Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well."

55. "The most common cause of low prices is pessimism—sometimes pervasive, sometimes specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It’s optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer."

 

[nopain1234]

No. Real Estate is a hard asset. You need to own hard assets with Inflation and a depreciating currency. I have been through quite a few real estate bear markets and this is just another one. I see no "crash" as more people need houses than the current supply. Once Interest rates settle back down to around 5% the housing market will stabilize once again.

FEAR is a huge factor in this stock market. FEAR causes one to act irrationally and go to 100% cash, CDs, Bonds or T Bills. I own all of those as part of a diversified portfolio. If you scare this easily then I highly recommend a 50/50 or 60/40 portfolio so you stay invested. In order to win the game you need to be in the game. I saw this exact same scenario in 2008 when Panic/Fear was even more extreme than today. Those who stay invested, better yet bought stocks, made a lot of money.

I don't expect 2023-2024 to be a great year. I predict 3500 as low then we end 2023 around 4100. I do think we get a nice bounce in 2024 and ultimately get back close to 4800 in 2025. This is jus ta blip for a long term investor. I recommend you keep a portion of your portfolio in SAFE investments so you can sleep well at night. For others who don't mind the volatility, I recommend 80-90% equities (young investors under the age of 45). Sure, you can buy T bills like this old man or even CDs but that won't get you to your goal of FIRE. Each person must know his/her risk tolerance and the only way to know that is to actually live through a bear market like today. Are you selling or holding pat? Are you buying more equities when they are on sale? One can argue the prices aren't low enough but they are getting there so hold the line and stay diversified.

The sky isn't falling in 2023 and you will look back on this post in 6 months time and regret selling equities unless you buy them back at exactly the right time.

I’m 40, a lot of years to go. I’m in predominantly apple, (heavy) google, Amazon, AMD, and TSLA. Clearly a tech heavy portfolio I bought at the beginning of COVID. This isn’t all my money I have real estate and other things.

My point tho, you act as if this is just another “correction”. I understand the fear factor and buying when blood is in the streets. My main point is we are on the heels of a man made pandemic with WW III potentially on the horizon. Our only hope is Joe fing Biden and Kamala Harris.

Forgive me if I don’t see this as 2008 or the dot com.

 

[chessknt]

I do wonder what fox or OAN is showing you guys to get you so riled up about ww3 and Biden. Besides voting for the peace loving Republicans of course how is holding cash going to help in a nuclear Holocaust? Do you think the people literally snowed in to their home with no power and no ems in Buffalo were worried about not having enough cash on hand as they died? I'd be much more concerned about the planet becoming inhospitable due to environmental factors than economic factors. I have no control over either so try not to worry about both.

 

[Dr. Rude]

https://i.imgflip.com/3uhz3k.jpg

 

[nopain1234]

I do wonder what fox or OAN is showing you guys to get you so riled up about ww3 and Biden. Besides voting for the peace loving Republicans of course how is holding cash going to help in a nuclear Holocaust? Do you think the people literally snowed in to their home with no power and no ems in Buffalo were worried about not having enough cash on hand as they died? I'd be much more concerned about the planet becoming inhospitable due to environmental factors than economic factors. I have no control over either so try not to worry about both.

Nothing to see here. Things are going GREAT!

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I do wonder what fox or OAN is showing you guys to get you so riled up about ww3 and Biden. Besides voting for the peace loving Republicans of course how is holding cash going to help in a nuclear Holocaust? Do you think the people literally snowed in to their home with no power and no ems in Buffalo were worried about not having enough cash on hand as they died? I'd be much more concerned about the planet becoming inhospitable due to environmental factors than economic factors. I have no control over either so try not to worry about both.

You make some good points without getting into Fox News etc. I mean, there really is China flexing over Taiwan and that thing over in Ukraine. This isn't the little fat man in North Korea anymore that can be squashed like a bug, so ww3 isn't the most delusional concern one may have.

So the real question is... Do we get a relief rally this week I can short before the nukes go off?

 

[marr65]

Nothing to see here. Things are going GREAT!

Things are GREAT my dude! Restaurants aren’t empty, grocery stores are full of people, gas at Costco this weekend was 2.99 for 93 octane, jobs are plentiful, and plenty of pay raises for the peasants in 2022.

 

[Arch Guillotti]

To combat the pandemic by the man made virus. It was either that or have America collapse. The money printing was caused by the virus.

You can be blind if you want to…

Do you believe in Q?

 

[abolt18]

Am I alone in thinking this is the scariest time to invest in our lifetimes?

I literally never worry. I likely never will. I only wish I had more cash to invest! This year of fellowship is cramping my savings goals.

Take only as much risk as you can tolerate losing. Broadly diversify in index funds throughout your career, following a reasonable asset allocation as determined in your reasonable Investor Policy Statement, and just stick to it. Blah blah blah the usual stuff that makes this entire thread of hilarious predictions and fear mongering superfluous.

 

[anbuitachi]

i have 2 main concerns
big one is QT, lots of money falling off feds balance sheet, which will negatively affect stocks
2nd one is earnings.

less concerned bout inflation. its comin gdown nicely
but agree, if you go to the shop or eat, it doesnt scream recession. its packed

 

[coffeebythelake]

Why isn't the government asking for money back from all these major corporations that got handout covid relief funds

 

[ERRES2288]

While it may not happen imminently, don't you think we're heading to an 07/08 situation except exponentially worse when it occurs?

If it doesn't occur this go around I think the DOW 29,000 lows are an excellent technical bounce point going forward.

What makes you think we are “heading for a 07/08 situation”? Have banks had really lax lending standards leading to billions of worthless subprime mortgages for the banks?

 

[nopain1234]

What makes you think we are “heading for a 07/08 situation”? Have banks had really lax lending standards leading to billions of worthless subprime mortgages for the banks?

Where did he compare the two situations being exactly the same? Every correction/recession has its own unique circumstances.

 

[deleted1116990]

Do you believe in Q?

He's right, and you can make fun of it if you want, but it's not funny.

Back to regularly scheduled programming. TSLA LOL. TSLA shorts finally getting their payoff. They earned it. The amount of patience required was so stupid for the most obvious short in history.

 

[gasdoc77]

He's right, and you can make fun of it if you want, but it's not funny.

Back to regularly scheduled programming. TSLA LOL. TSLA shorts finally getting their payoff. They earned it. The amount of patience required was so stupid for the most obvious short in history.

Too bad Burry/Scion lost patience. They were up against distorted market forces.

 

[deleted1116990]

I do wonder what fox or OAN is showing you guys to get you so riled up about ww3 and Biden. Besides voting for the peace loving Republicans of course how is holding cash going to help in a nuclear Holocaust? Do you think the people literally snowed in to their home with no power and no ems in Buffalo were worried about not having enough cash on hand as they died? I'd be much more concerned about the planet becoming inhospitable due to environmental factors than economic factors. I have no control over either so try not to worry about both.

Serious question: Do you think the residents of Buffalo, NY are better equipped to get through and deal with the aftermath of blizzards better in 2022 than they were in 1922? Or was everything a nice and pleasant 70 degrees with no more than a light breeze and occasional nourishing drizzle to keep our crops moist until the evil, evil personal automobile became common and ruined everything.

The lack of perspective engendered by hyperbolic clickbait journalism and paid leftist propaganda is unreal and it boggles me how otherwise smart people fall for this climate panic. The number of people who think are on the brink of a climate catastrophe akin to the sun becoming a supernova and wiping us out.

This is the best time to be alive in history. That's the reality. And the existential threats (to us and to the environment), the real ones, are, and have always involved nuclear war. What are we doing? Losing our minds over a grossly exaggerated threat and overlooking the serious threat by provoking war with a nuclear superpower and trying to instigate regime change to something even potentially less stable. There's a lot of money to be made in that, though.

We will have climate lockdowns? At this point, maybe? It won't be sudden like covid, but rather a slow grind as restrictions are added on never to be taken away. Will it affect the economy? Ask Europe, who started this 20 years before we did. The economic factors are related to stupid environmental policy. We are we trying to make ourselves poorer, more miserable, and closer to extinction?

How to invest? Oil. Defense stocks. Gold. Trading technicals.
How not to invest? Basically everything else mentioned here.

Earning a huge return is no longer the goal through passive investing in growth-heavy index funds. It's asset preservation in the face of inflation and the leverage needed to achieve that. I think those who expect 2010-2020 performance through boglehead strategy will get burned.

What we will witness is the greatest market timing opportunity potentially in our lifetimes when the fed stops hiking and the market craters before QE resumes and those of us with cash can gobble up assets and again access cheap money others can't (rich get richer, poor get poorer, on a bigger and bigger scale each time).

But keep focusing on nonsense about how cars caused blizzards to be worse, more hurricanes etc and don't forget your ukraine flag emoji.

 

[Dr. Rude]

Serious question: Do you think the residents of Buffalo, NY are better equipped to get through and deal with the aftermath of blizzards better in 2022 than they were in 1922? Or was everything a nice and pleasant 70 degrees with no more than a light breeze and occasional nourishing drizzle to keep our crops moist until the evil, evil personal automobile became common and ruined everything.

The lack of perspective engendered by hyperbolic clickbait journalism and paid leftist propaganda is unreal and it boggles me how otherwise smart people fall for this climate panic. The number of people who think are on the brink of a climate catastrophe akin to the sun becoming a supernova and wiping us out.

This is the best time to be alive in history. That's the reality. And the existential threats (to us and to the environment), the real ones, are, and have always involved nuclear war. What are we doing? Losing our minds over a grossly exaggerated threat and overlooking the serious threat by provoking war with a nuclear superpower and trying to instigate regime change to something even potentially less stable. There's a lot of money to be made in that, though.

We will have climate lockdowns? At this point, maybe? It won't be sudden like covid, but rather a slow grind as restrictions are added on never to be taken away. Will it affect the economy? Ask Europe, who started this 20 years before we did. The economic factors are related to stupid environmental policy. We are we trying to make ourselves poorer, more miserable, and closer to extinction?

How to invest? Oil. Defense stocks. Gold. Trading technicals.
How not to invest? Basically everything else mentioned here.

Earning a huge return is no longer the goal through passive investing in growth-heavy index funds. It's asset preservation in the face of inflation and the leverage needed to achieve that. I think those who expect 2010-2020 performance through boglehead strategy will get burned.

What we will witness is the greatest market timing opportunity potentially in our lifetimes when the fed stops hiking and the market craters before QE resumes and those of us with cash can gobble up assets and again access cheap money others can't (rich get richer, poor get poorer, on a bigger and bigger scale each time).

But keep focusing on nonsense about how cars caused blizzards to be worse, more hurricanes etc and don't forget your ukraine flag emoji.

Ronald Reagan said it best. Start @23:50.

 

[deleted1116990]

We are seeing the pullback in the bond market the charts predicted that I mentioned.

TLT coming back down into the 90s.

There may be a very good short term trade on TBT puts coming up and loading up TLT or other bond ETFs for the long haul if you're trying to time this bottom...

 

[deleted1116990]

Ronald Reagan said it best. Start @23:50.

Two things:

1. Isn't it nice to have a leader who can form not only an intelligent independent thought but a coherent sentence?
2. What Reagan was talking about has nothing to do with the situation I was referring to. The USSR ceased to exist 30 years ago. Of course this doesn't stop people, who desire to profit from war, from lying about the situation and pushing propaganda with false equivalencies. If the US cared only about protecting citizens of the world from governments (internal and external) that harm them, we would be involved in so many other places. But all these other present atrocities happen in areas nobody cares about to people nobody cares about. You need about 300 other emjois besides your ukraine virtue signal if you truly gave a damn.