Stock Market 2022 except we just talk about stocks

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At what price would you buy Tesla stock? The forward P/E is now 20. I would be a buyer at $100 or less as Tesla is a great company with a lot of growth ahead the next few years. I never liked Tesla stock because the P/E was always absurd. But, a forward P/E of 15 and I just have to buy in to Musk/Tesla. In 3 years, Tesla will be selling a lot more automobiles and the P/E can still be 15 yet I make money. I see Tesla stock doubling in 3 years to $200 and that is still way, way off the recent highs.

"We continue to forecast that Tesla will deliver nearly 1.4 million and 2.1 million vehicles in 2022 and 2023, respectively."

Maintaining $250 Fair Value for Tesla​

 
ERRES2288 said:
What makes you think we are “heading for a 07/08 situation”? Have banks had really lax lending standards leading to billions of worthless subprime mortgages for the banks?
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Because we are exponentially in more debt collectively since 07/08. Nothing was fixed, just delayed. If you keep giving a homeless unemployed drug addict 5 million dollar loans everytime he hits crisis levels, if he doesn't change his ways do you really think his balance sheet isn't getting worse despite having constant new cars, condo, fancy clothes, eating at great restaurants, and appearing great?

Everyone is capable of understanding this on that simplistic level, and on a larger Madoff ponzi level, but so many go into blind denial when it's the government doing the endless borrowing and printing to float this bloated house of cards on life support.

If we're in such a solid financial position why would balancing the budget put us in catastrophic short term crisis? Have you ever seen the fear that races through America when there is a delay in raising the debt ceiling? What does that tell you? That we're in a "great position" financially as long as we can live off of exponentially increasing debt. If that ain't an oxymoron I don't know what is.
 
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nopain1234 said:
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Idiots who never lived through multiple bear markets especially 2008. In 2008, there was fear, contagion to the point we thought stocks could go to ZERO. That last drop off was the FEAR reaching levels like late 1920's. It isn't relevant to 2022/2023. We won't see that 1,000 point drop on the S and P 500 because the FED would just "pivot" before we crash. The FED had lost control in 2008 and only US govt. intervention saved stocks. The FED is in complete control today and can literally cause a 400 point rally by just cutting rates 0.25% tomorrow.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Because we are exponentially in more debt collectively since 07/08. Nothing was fixed, just delayed. If you keep giving a homeless unemployed drug addict 5 million dollar loans everytime he hits crisis levels, if he doesn't change his ways do you really think his balance sheet isn't getting worse despite having constant new cars, condo, fancy clothes, eating at great restaurants, and appearing great?

Everyone is capable of understanding this on that simplistic level, and on a larger Madoff ponzi level, but so many go into blind denial when it's the government doing the endless borrowing and printing to float this bloated house of cards on life support.

If we're in such a solid financial position why would balancing the budget put us in catastrophic short term crisis? Have you ever seen the fear that races through America when there is a delay in raising the debt ceiling? What does that tell you? That's we're in a "great position" financially as long as we can live off of exponentially increasing debt. If that ain't an oxymoron I don't know what is.
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You are off by decades in your thesis. You will ultimately be correct but I'll be long dead and you will be broke most of your life if you invest with this thesis. The USA is on SOLID Ground for many ,many years to come because we have the reserve currency, the biggest/most expensive military and a huge tax base which to suck money from as needed. As much as I hate to say, the drunken sailors in Washington can keep spending money for years to come. My grandkids will pay the price for this mess but you all can make a small fortune until that day of reckoning happens.
 
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1672190309787.png
 
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BLADEMDA said:
Idiots who never lived through multiple bear markets especially 2008. In 2008, there was fear, contagion to the point we thought stocks could go to ZERO. That last drop off was the FEAR reaching levels like late 1920's. It isn't relevant to 2022/2023. We won't see that 1,000 point drop on the S and P 500 because the FED would just "pivot" before we crash. The FED had lost control in 2008 and only US govt. intervention saved stocks. The FED is in complete control today and can literally cause a 400 point rally by just cutting rates 0.25% tomorrow.
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Very much agree that the Fed will choose runaway inflation over a crashing economy and stock market, and a surprise rate drop will eventually happen causing a buying frenzy.

But the idea the Fed is in control of anything positive at this point, or that the government saved anything in 08 I find very misleading. The Fed can choose between which bad option predominates as this financial disaster runs its course, and the government can only delay the inevitable by running up a deeper more burdensome tab.
 
You all can believe in the naysayers or listen to the greatest investor of all time: Warren Buffett. Once this bear market shows its teeth again at let's say 10% lower from here, you should be buying stocks with good valuations, great long term prospects and products you believe in. Or, just buy the S and P 500 or VTI and enjoy the ride up from the bottom.
 

Key Points​

  • The Great Recession began with the subprime mortgage crisis in 2006, when banks invested in mortgages in the form of derivatives.
  • Subprime borrowers started defaulting when the housing bubble burst at the same time the Fed raised rates.
  • “Too big to fail” banks, hedge funds, and insurance firms found themselves holding worthless investments.
  • The stock market crashed in 2008, as the Dow registered one of the largest point drops in history.
  • Congress passed multiple acts and enacted economic stimulus plans to prevent the Great Recession from becoming the second Great Depression.
The FED was very slow to cut rates in 2007. Many like CRAMER stated on the air the FED "they know nothing" because the Fed didn't act to stave off this recession when rates were still over 4%. The US govt. came to the rescue with $$$, the Fed finally cut rates and began the decade long "QE" program. This created the environment we all knew quite well for over a decade. The FED had lost control of the economy in 2007/2008 because it didn't act fast enough and with decisive action to stimulate growth.


www.thebalancemoney.com

The Great Recession of 2008: What Happened, and When?

The seeds of the Great Recession started in 2006 when housing prices began to fall. Here's an explanation of causes, effects, and solutions.
www.thebalancemoney.com www.thebalancemoney.com
 
BLADEMDA said:
You all can believe in the naysayers or listen to the greatest investor of all time: Warren Buffett. Once this bear market shows its teeth again at let's say 10% lower from here, you should be buying stocks with good valuations, great long term prospects and products you believe in. Or, just buy the S and P 500 or VTI and enjoy the ride up from the bottom.
Click to expand...
I just been buying on the way down and hopefully when it goes up again. Don’t know when or why or even how at this point.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
You are off by decades in your thesis. You will ultimately be correct but I'll be long dead and you will be broke most of your life if you invest with this thesis. The USA is on SOLID Ground for many ,many years to come because we have the reserve currency, the biggest/most expensive military and a huge tax base which to suck money from as needed. As much as I hate to say, the drunken sailors in Washington can keep spending money for years to come. My grandkids will pay the price for this mess but you all can make a small fortune until that day of reckoning happens.
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There's truth in that, and I never claim to say when the day of reckoning is. So while I agree the day to day footing is stronger than than 08, the underlying foundation is significantly worse.

Kind of like a major water pipe bursting in 08 that need immediate repair before causing severe damage, versus the entire structure is sinking and shifting and will end like the Champlain Towers in Surfside, Florida. Which acute problem did the government have to fix on the spot? The 08 busted pipe. What problem are they ignoring because the day to day is still ok? The major structural issues that will eventually bring down the entire structure.
 
BLADEMDA said:
The FED had lost control of the economy in 2007/2008 because it didn't act fast enough and with decisive action to stimulate growth.
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This is like blaming the police for causing crime because they lost control of it, and ignoring the many true causes of crime whatever they happen to be (not looking for a crime debate).
 
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BLADEMDA said:


August 2007. The Stock market has not crashed yet but was on its way down towards zero.
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Are you going to selectively quote this bumbling idiot as the great soothsayer? 😂

"So subprime blows up, So What?" says Cramer.

 
Here’s the portfolio that the apocalypse predictors should invest in:

90 % stocks
10 % guns/ bunkers / survival food

Seriously. You’ll win either way then. I’m actually only partially kidding as my portfolio isn’t that far off from that.
 
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doctalaughs said:
Here’s the portfolio that the apocalypse predictors should invest in:

90 % stocks
10 % guns/ bunkers / survival food

Seriously. You’ll win either way then. I’m actually only partially kidding as my portfolio isn’t that far off from that.
Click to expand...

My apocalypse portfolio would be 90% hookers and 10% cocaine.
 
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doctalaughs said:
Here’s the portfolio that the apocalypse predictors should invest in:

90 % stocks
10 % guns/ bunkers / survival food

Seriously. You’ll win either way then. I’m actually only partially kidding as my portfolio isn’t that far off from that.
Click to expand...
Throw gold in there and I'm right there with you 🤣
 
I bet that people that have significant precious metals holdings +/— being “preppers” is negatively correlated with having ESG investments and positively correlated with voting Republican. Having ESG investments is likely correlated with voting Democrat.
 
If we take a look at the TLT chart, we can see a recent double bottom in early Nov. This rally was totally expected and now we are seeing the pullback. We will come back down and retest this bottom. Then it's off to the races in the bond market. Load up on TLT calls and TBT puts on a downswing near that bottom? This will be the time to get into bonds. The more I read about this, the more I think we will see bonds dominate in the coming decade and the decline of the 100% S&P passive invest strategy.



ALfJTPKd



So lets talk about the contrarian play. Everybody and their mother is saying the 60/40 portfolio is DEAD.

051922-EFD_60-40-Portfolio-Returns.png


Is this the blood in the streets? The time to buy bonds? It sure looks like it. Tell me why I'm wrong and we shouldn't be loading up on bonds now and stocks in 6-12 months when the Fed blows the whole thing up and the S&P tanks 50% to build the perfectly bottom timed long haul 60/40 portfolio with all the cash the smart ones have saved up?

How about a 55/35/10 Stocks/Bonds/Precious metals portfolio? This is the way?!!!

The 1 year treasury is paying almost 5%. This will not last. Probably smart to put some money here. Like Today.

 
BLADEMDA said:
The USA is on SOLID Ground for many ,many years to come because we have the reserve currency, the biggest/most expensive military and a huge tax base which to suck money from as needed. As much as I hate to say, the drunken sailors in Washington can keep spending money for years to come. My grandkids will pay the price for this mess but you all can make a small fortune until that day of reckoning happens.
Click to expand...

How can you be this oblivious? 7 million working age American men are not working. Not working = not paying taxes. Taking handouts and using services that require taxes. This is backwards.

Nearly THREE MILLION people have crossed the border illegally this year alone. This is over 5 times the population of Wyoming. These people do not have work permits and are not paying taxes on any work that they do and using services funded by tax payers.

Have you tried travelling on an airplane recently? There is no staff at the airport. Nobody to get bags off planes. Planes sit delayed. Delays have a ripple effect until everything is delayed. Planes land and sit on the ramp for an hour because nobody is there to move the jetway to the plane. This has happened to me a half dozen times this year alone. Want to get a sandwich while you are stuck overnight at the airport? HAH. You think they can get people to work at Arby's past airport security for $15/hour at night? Restaurants close at 8PM. If you're fast, maybe you can make it to the newsstand and get a back of $12 cheeze-its before they close at 10 PM (which means the attendant puts the closed sign up at 9:30). Try to get somebody to do work on your house. Good luck. Try to get somebody to work in the evenings or on the weekend. HAH.

Nobody wants to work for $15/hour, forget minimum wage. They can get income to this amount other ways without the suck that are low paying or even moderate paying jobs.

We need people to work in this country. Our citizens don't want to do it. We are letting huge numbers of people unchecked. We need those people, document them and let them work and pay into the system. But if you talk about the border, then you're a racist. See the problem?

You can't have a welfare state AND open borders. You can have one if you want. Pick one. You need a tax base or you become insolvent and poverty results for the masses.

Are you really that confident in America? Are we the same America we were in 1955 that built the economy and stock market returns you have taken for granted? You really want to make that bet or do you have your head in the sand?
 
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BLADEMDA said:
At what price would you buy Tesla stock? The forward P/E is now 20. I would be a buyer at $100 or less as Tesla is a great company with a lot of growth ahead the next few years. I never liked Tesla stock because the P/E was always absurd. But, a forward P/E of 15 and I just have to buy in to Musk/Tesla. In 3 years, Tesla will be selling a lot more automobiles and the P/E can still be 15 yet I make money. I see Tesla stock doubling in 3 years to $200 and that is still way, way off the recent highs.

"We continue to forecast that Tesla will deliver nearly 1.4 million and 2.1 million vehicles in 2022 and 2023, respectively."

Maintaining $250 Fair Value for Tesla​

Click to expand...
Tesla EPS for the twelve months ending September 30, 2022 was $3.24,
Your Forward PE of 20 assumes EPS growth of 70% in the next 12 months. That is extremely unlikely. That is why all these forward PEs are useless. Forward estimates are useless. Earnings can absolutely collapse. Earnings growth can be negative. It can be negative 10%, 20%, etc.
As an example S&P earnings in 2009 collapsed by almost 80% (S&P500 earnings 2008 $64, 2009 $12)
Now I am not calling for earnings to decline that much but I think there are some extremely rosy projections for earnings going forward which will absolutely not materialize.
My 2 cents.
 
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The S&P 500 has fallen by an average of 28% in recessions since World War Two, data from CFRA showed, though some argue this year's tumble - which hit 25.2% in October - suggests equities have at least partially factored in a slowdown. The S&P 500 is down about 20% on a year-to-date basis.

Still, Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede, believes deep declines have increased the strategy's attractiveness over the long term.

"For the next 10 years 60/40 portfolios are at a lot better starting place than they have been in years, and that's in large part because bonds are in a very favorable position," he said.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
The S&P 500 has fallen by an average of 28% in recessions since World War Two, data from CFRA showed, though some argue this year's tumble - which hit 25.2% in October - suggests equities have at least partially factored in a slowdown. The S&P 500 is down about 20% on a year-to-date basis.

Still, Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede, believes deep declines have increased the strategy's attractiveness over the long term.

"For the next 10 years 60/40 portfolios are at a lot better starting place than they have been in years, and that's in large part because bonds are in a very favorable position," he said.
Click to expand...
I don't really dabble in bonds, probably should, but shouldn't they keep going down in value for a while with the series of rate hikes still coming?
 
Moonbeams said:
If we take a look at the TLT chart, we can see a recent double bottom in early Nov. This rally was totally expected and now we are seeing the pullback. We will come back down and retest this bottom. Then it's off to the races in the bond market. Load up on TLT calls and TBT puts on a downswing near that bottom? This will be the time to get into bonds. The more I read about this, the more I think we will see bonds dominate in the coming decade and the decline of the 100% S&P passive invest strategy.



ALfJTPKd



So lets talk about the contrarian play. Everybody and their mother is saying the 60/40 portfolio is DEAD.

051922-EFD_60-40-Portfolio-Returns.png


Is this the blood in the streets? The time to buy bonds? It sure looks like it. Tell me why I'm wrong and we shouldn't be loading up on bonds now and stocks in 6-12 months when the Fed blows the whole thing up and the S&P tanks 50% to build the perfectly bottom timed long haul 60/40 portfolio with all the cash the smart ones have saved up?

How about a 55/35/10 Stocks/Bonds/Precious metals portfolio? This is the way?!!!

The 1 year treasury is paying almost 5%. This will not last. Probably smart to put some money here. Like Today.

Click to expand...


you gonna buy 2024 tlt calls? why do you do tbt and tlt at same time?? why not just stick with tlt calls or tbt puts as opposed to both
 
anbuitachi said:
@Moonbeams
also curious what bonds do people buy. straight up treasuries ? etf? corporations? municipals?
Click to expand...

Your best bet is to buy 1 year treasuries right now. In fact, I might move some money and do exactly that right now. Gets you one percent above a CD or HYSA.

Bond ETFs are tricker. I think TLT will swing nicely up when the yield curve goes back to where it is supposed to be.
 
anbuitachi said:
you gonna buy 2024 tlt calls? why do you do tbt and tlt at same time?? why not just stick with tlt calls or tbt puts as opposed to both
Click to expand...

TBT is leveraged so options on it will be even more leveraged. You could do the same thing with calls on TMF. Or just buy and hold TMF.

I am seriously thinking about allocating a small portion of my portfolio to UPRO and TMF (3X stocks and treasuries) with a chunk of cash moved in trying to time a bottom. I am thinking the time to buy TMF is probably oh about right now. Stocks have a long way to fall after the earnings disasters come in Q1 and Q2 2023. Probably plan to pick up the UPRO position sometime later next year.

Unlike the many idiots who thought it was a good idea to extrapolate the mindless biweekly buy and hold boglehead index strategy to 3X ETFs. I imagine they were wiped out in 2022. Buying and holding 3X ETFs only works if you can successfully time bottoms and exit eventually rather than hold forever.
 
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What are good resources to learn more about options? I want to write an option to get passive income on a premium but not sure which companies to look into.

How did you guys wet your feet?
 
RadOncDoc21 said:
What are good resources to learn more about options? I want to write an option to get passive income on a premium but not sure which companies to look into.

How did you guys wet your feet?
Click to expand...
www.evidenceinvestor.com

Are covered calls too good to be true? | TEBI

A covered call is an options strategy used to generate income in the form of options premiums. But how efficient is it? And is there a better alternative?
www.evidenceinvestor.com www.evidenceinvestor.com

Summary​

While covered-call strategies seem to promise a free lunch in the form of similar returns with lower volatility, investors who care about more than the volatility of returns will not find them to be efficient.

Even for those investors for whom the value of the limited downside protection gained exceeds the value of the foregone potential upside benefits, we believe there is a more efficient way of achieving the same objective. This can be accomplished by lowering the equity allocation and increasing the allocation to high quality bonds (providing downside protection) while also increasing the exposure to small and value stocks (increasing the expected return from the equity portion of the portfolio).
 
Protection in 2023:

How can you protect your portfolio if for the sake of discussion we assume the upcoming year or two continue to be ugly? A common risk in all of these ideas is if you are wrong you will limit or completely miss out on gains.

1) Cash. In pure nominal dollars obviously the safest place to be. Biggest risk is inflation which will reduce the actual value of holding cash.

2) Gold. Personally I think it's about the surest future bet at this point. Other than meaningless dips, I just don't see how in our current debt and inflation environment that this can go down and stay down.

3) Go defensive. More boring steady stuff, PG PEP KR MRK etc, less flashy rockets like Nvidia.

4) Shorting. Traditional shorting of a garbage company in a downtown can be very lucrative. It is also incredibly risky if you are wrong in timing or fundamentals because the potential losses are unlimited as opposed to purchasing an asset where the loses are capped at 100%.

You can be completely correct in your financial analysis and literally get wiped out. Carvana presently sits below 5. Imagine all that money you'd make if you shorted it at 100? Well, are we talking April, 2022 on its way to below 5, or May, 2020 on its way to 370? If you took a large greedy position in May, 2020 margins calls would have eventually taken possibly almost your entire portfolio with no chance of riding it out, and this is despite the fact that you were 100% correct in concluding this stock was overpriced garbage. As Barb would say on Shark Tank, And for that reason I'm out.

5) Buying put options. Infinitely safer than shorting a stock because your losses are capped, but you are placing a bad bet that favors the casino as there is a hefty premium in time, strike, and price of options.

6) My preferred method of making money on the demise of the market/sector/stock is a short ETF. You purchase the ETF so losses are therefore capped and you avoid option premiums, although there typically are small fees involved.

7) Selling covered calls on the long positions. This can be a very nice dividend on your holdings that are treading water. Ideally search out larger premiums, shorter expiration dates, and strike prices far enough out that you can live with selling the stock at that price as that is the price your stock appreciation is capped at during the time period your the option is active.

I rarely short a stock and always a very small dollar figure with a hair trigger if I do. I'm only a little more receptive to buying puts, but for the most part I am currently active in methods 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7, but I do also still own very significant long positions in the market.

Please add other advantages/disadvantages I may have missed, as well as other methods of profiting or surviving a downtown.

EDIT: By cash I mean anything from actual dollars in the bank to similar products such as money markets. I did inadvertently skip over bonds as I haven't up till now dabbled in them (though current rates are enticing me), but will let other more experienced people discuss them.
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Protection in 2023:

How can you protect your portfolio if for the sake of discussion we assume the upcoming year or two continue to be ugly? A common risk in all of these ideas is if you are wrong you will limit or completely miss out on gains.

1) Cash. In pure nominal dollars obviously the safest place to be. Biggest risk is inflation which will reduce the actual value of holding cash.

2) Gold. Personally I think it's about the surest future bet at this point. Other than meaningless dips, I just don't see how in our current debt and inflation environment that this can go down and stay down.

3) Go defensive. More boring steady stuff, PG PEP KR MRK etc, less flashy rockets like Nvidia.

4) Shorting. Traditional shorting of a garbage company in a downtown can be very lucrative. It is also incredibly risky if you are wrong in timing or fundamentals because the potential losses are unlimited as opposed to purchasing an asset where the loses are capped at 100%.

You can be completely correct in your financial analysis and literally get wiped out. Carvana presently sits below 5. Imagine all that money you'd make if you shorted it at 100? Well, are we talking April, 2022 on its way to below 5, or May, 2020 on its way to 370? If you took a large greedy position in May, 2020 margins calls would have eventually taken possibly almost your entire portfolio with no chance of riding it out, and this is despite the fact that you were 100% correct in concluding this stock was overpriced garbage. As Barb would say on Shark Tank, And for that reason I'm out.

5) Buying put options. Infinitely safer than shorting a stock because your losses are capped, but you are placing a bad bet that favors the casino as there is a hefty premium in time, strike, and price of options.

6) My preferred method of making money on the demise of the market/sector/stock is a short ETF. You purchase the ETF so losses are therefore capped and you avoid option premiums, although there typically are small fees involved.

7) Selling covered calls on the long positions. This can be a very nice dividend on your holdings that are treading water. Ideally search out larger premiums, shorter expiration dates, and strike prices far enough out that you can live with selling the stock at that price as that is the price your stock appreciation is capped at during the time period your the option is active.

I rarely short a stock and always a very small dollar figure with a hair trigger if I do. I'm only a little more receptive to buying puts, but for the most part I am currently active in methods 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7, but I do also still own very significant long positions in the market.

Please add other advantages/disadvantages I may have missed, as well as other methods of profiting or surviving a downtown.
Click to expand...
Bonds, CDs, HYSA are safest after cash. The rest are all speculative.
 
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nopain1234 said:
T-bills paying right under 5%. Will that at lease keep up with inflation?
Click to expand...

Sounds a little low (inflation is running a little hotter). Also tbills mature in less than one year. You have Reinvestment risk.
 
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Greenbayslacker said:
Bonds, CDs, HYSA are safest after cash. The rest are all speculative.
Click to expand...
You have a very different definition of speculative than the one I'm used to seeing, ie high risk/high reward. What I mentioned are for the most part very conservative ideas; gold, covered calls, defensive stocks, and short etfs as opposed to puts and outright shorting. To be blunt there's nothing speculative about any of that.

(I did forget bonds because I typically don't invest in them)
 
Big money moving into JEPI ETF. This ETF owns conservative stocks of the S and P 500 and sells covered calls against the stock to generate income. This means the ETF can still lose money if the underlying stocks of the fund go down in value but the covered calls mitigate that lose. The ETF makes sense in this environment where the upside is likely capped for 2023 with more risk to the downside. The Volatility in the market generates a high yield in this ETF.

This ETF is part of a diversified strategy which includes bonds, T-bills or CDs/Savings. You can get almost 4.5% from short term govt. T-bills.

Series I Savings Bonds

6.89%
For savings bonds issued November 1, 2022 to April 30, 2023.

I have been buying I Bonds in 2022 and 2023 as part of my diversification.


When must I report the interest?​

You have a choice. You can

  • put off (defer) reporting the interest until you file a federal income tax return for the year in which you actually get the interest, or
  • report the interest each year even though you don't actually get the interest then
 
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Marginal tax brackets for tax year 2023, married filing jointly​

The table shows the income brackets for married couples filing jointly for the 2023 tax year.
Table with 2 columns and 7 rows. Currently displaying rows 1 to 7.
Taxable incomeTaxes owed
$22,000 or less10% of the taxable income
$22,001 to $89,450$2,200 plus 12% of amount over $22,000
$89,451 to $190,750$10,294 plus 22% of amount over $89,450
$190,751 to $364,200$32,580 plus 24% of amount over $190,750
$364,201 to $462,500$74,208 plus 32% of amount over $364,200
$462,501 to $693,750$105,664 plus 35% of amount over $462,500
$693,751 or more$186,601.50 plus 37% of amount over $693,750
 
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Nobody Knows Nothing.
 
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Dr. Rude said:
Nobody Knows Nothing.
Click to expand...
The key is the Fed. I expect the Fed will raise interest rates to 5.25% and keep them there for all of 2023. That will make any rally before the final quarter of 2023 highly unlikely. The "street" expects a terminal rate of 5.0% and the Fed to pivot in late 2023. The street will be wrong so 2023 will likely be a flat year.

I truly hope the Fed does pivot by the summer of 2023 but hope isn't a strategy and inflation will remain sticky for 2023.
 
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