The ultimate COVID thread

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Newtwo said:
No one know the bottom buddy.

When the market starts to make higher highs then maybe we're turning. We're not there yet.

If youre only putting in enough and can handle the loss over 20 years that's fine. That's what I'm doing. But gambling big money right now will see you devoured
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im sure blademda can afford to put in a few million in there and still be fine even if he lost it all 🙂
 
stock is currently on the rise for tomorrow.. another rebound. looks like going to be steady ~2500 or so until we peak, then higher.
 
narcotics999 said:
10k? Nah. I would think around 2k
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Screenshot_20200402-003248_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20200402-003302_Chrome.jpg




Even in the miracle, too optimistic, def-not-gonna-happen scenario it's still 1.5k deaths per day and ~40k total
 
BLADEMDA said:
That's fine. This is a major correction like 2008/2009. We are talking 50% drop from many good companies. How smart do you have to be to buy those companies with a good balance sheet then wait 12 months to make 30-50%?

This isn't like the past 5 years. This is like 2008 when even a bit early to the game still resulted in phenomenal gains over the next 5 years. Believe what you want but this is a once in a decade opportunity to truly make a lot of money over a short period of time.
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Sure, just say stocks are relatively cheap and will likely rise up. Maybe it takes 12 months. Maybe it takes 36 months. Maybe it takes 9 months. The specifics shouldn't really matter to anybody, nor the exact timing.
 
narcotics999 said:
10k? Nah. I would think around 2k
Click to expand...

it's going to be 2K per day by next week and it seems unlikely we will be plateauing at that point since diagnosed cases are still skyrocketing right now
 
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anbuitachi said:
stocks are up today!!!. unemployment rises to 6.6M. death surpasses 1k a day. we are getting closer to the end
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My original guess at the stock market bottom was 2500. I was wrong. The market bottomed at 2200. But, the death rate is still rising and over the next 2 weeks volatility is high. I actually hope that I am wrong about re-testing the lows of 2200 but I remain on the sidelines until we either re-test the lows or flatten the curve of Covid 19 infections/deaths (or we find a real cure/treatment).

There is a chance I miss buying at 2500 and then must purchase stocks at 2600 or even 2700 but that is a risk I am willing to take.


www.cnbc.com

New York Gov. Cuomo: 'I'm doing everything I can, but people are still dying' from the coronavirus

"I'm doing everything I can, but people are still dying and that is hurtful and humbling and painful. Just painful," Cuomo said.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
Lmfao, this is a dream scenario for trump. He can just tell Deutsche to go F themselves because he’s president instead of defaulting or declaring bankruptcy on a business for like the 34th time

 
anbuitachi said:
total deaths yesterday in the US was like ~970 which is down from 2 days ago!!! (over 1k 2 days ago)
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March 28 was 525 deaths
March 29 was 363 deaths


By your logic the epidemic should be pretty much over by now...
 
anbuitachi said:
total deaths yesterday in the US was like ~970 which is down from 2 days ago!!! (over 1k 2 days ago)
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New rule for nyc paramedics: don’t bring cardiac arrest pts to Er for revival. I guess these death is not counted as Covid 19 death?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Mikkel said:
I sold most of my retirement funds and put 50% of the proceeds to buy into a small company called "Medical Products Ltd" (based in Georgia). 👍
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Looking back at the initial posts you are far and away the winner. Sold before the crash while the rest said do nothing, and only put half into a stock, which while down is much better than the market in general. Congratulations.
 
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narcotics999 said:
New rule for nyc paramedics: don’t bring cardiac arrest pts to Er for revival. I guess these death is not counted as Covid 19 death?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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No, they are not covid deaths. The death rate for cardiac arrest outside of a hospital is about 95%, ie their odds of survival are dismal, and I'm sure the death rate for ones still in cardiac arrest upon ER arrival is closer to 100%. I can't recall a patient surviving brought to the ER in full arrest with CPR in progress, and I've seen many.
 
narcotics999 said:
New rule for nyc paramedics: don’t bring cardiac arrest pts to Er for revival. I guess these death is not counted as Covid 19 death?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
You can bet that most of these are Covid-related (the disease can give even a full STEMI picture), they just won't be counted as such. Nobody does Covid testing on the dead.
 
I sticking to my guns and going with the Sweden model. Soon the economic devastation with the current plan can cause severe suffering that can't be neatly measured like the number of total covid deaths, but loss of job, businesses, and life savings matter. With our current strategy there will be very little herd immunity built up by the next virus season comes around roughly in Sept/Oct, and that will last a full 6-7 months. So we lock it up that long again if there is no vaccine or good treatment?

I think this has the potential of going down as a horrible public health strategy. Good young productive healthcare workers are tragically being sacrificed (over 60 physicians in Italy alone), and other critical patients that can't get optimal care as well, as we continue to throw all efforts to saving every possible covid patient despite knowing most in significant distress have next to no chance of survival, such as nursing home patients or those with severe medical issues.

If we stretch this shutdown model off and on for a year to year and a half we would have potential worse case economic scenarios close to a revolution, or a more likely possibility of true Socialism policies that would be cause far more suffering than covid. Without vaccine, treatment, or herd immunity, how long can doctors get their way and just shut down the nation's economy? I think Sweden will look like a really nice place to live when this is over while everyone else could be in economic rubble.
 
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anbuitachi said:
my prediction is around 2500 will be bottom for some time until it recovers. for it to drop lower would require something that hasnt been predicted. eg 10m deaths in US instead of the predicted 100k-200k etc.
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if you don't lock down
330,000,000 population
60% get COVID-19
2 percent of those die --> 3,960,000 deaths
0.5% seems wildly optimistic to me -- still works out to about 1 million people
those extra deaths will have an economic impact too

if you lock down, fewer people die -- but can it be sustained ? and as 15minutes said ... at what cost.
rock --> us <-- hard place
 
FFP said:
You can bet that most of these are Covid-related (the disease can give even a full STEMI picture), they just won't be counted as such. Nobody does Covid testing on the dead.
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Once this is done, they'll compare number of deaths in 2020 (etc) to deaths in 2019 -- the excess (with a bit of fudge factor) is COVID
 
anbuitachi said:
my prediction is around 2500 will be bottom for some time until it recovers. for it to drop lower would require something that hasnt been predicted. eg 10m deaths in US instead of the predicted 100k-200k etc.
Click to expand...


It is moderately hard to "stay the course" when you look at a major drop in your portfolio, but are still gainfully employed.

The situation changes dramatically when you lose your job or a major chunk of your income or are far less secure in your job. "Staying the Course" under those conditions, i.e., redeploying your precious remaining capital into cratering equities becomes brutally hard.
 
JobsFan said:
if you don't lock down
330,000,000 population
60% get COVID-19
2 percent of those die --> 3,960,000 deaths
0.5% seems wildly optimistic to me -- still works out to about 1 million people
those extra deaths will have an economic impact too

if you lock down, fewer people die -- but can it be sustained ? and as 15minutes said ... at what cost.
rock --> us <-- hard place
Click to expand...

What % of these deaths would be due to COVID19 (the disease process under normal conditions), and what % would be from lack of ventilators and other medical necessitities (the need to flatten the curve) while waiting for a vaccine or other effective treatments to be developed??
 
POINTS
  • The stock market could still touch new lows as uncertainty around the coronavirus pandemic persists, Mohamed El-Erian argued Friday.
  • “I don’t think we’re forming a bottom yet. I think we’re going down at a slower rate,” the chief economic advisor at Allianz said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
  • The S&P 500 recorded its recent low of 2,191.86 on March 23. It closed Thursday at 2,526.90.
 
Applying case fatality risk(rate) grossly overestimates fatalities when applied to an entire population (1-1.5%)

The infection fatality risk (rate) is far lower (CEBM data) estimates are still crude but .2-.7% covers the spread of a lot of different models. Number will get more accurate when we have a better denominator. Not a fan of modeling but we are getting far enough along to where this data is starting to be useful and not just conjecture.

But yes Every death is tragic and even the best case scenario a lot of people will die and we should stay the course till the curve peaks. After that, I agree rock and hard place
 
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RadsWFA1900 said:
www.nytimes.com

N.Y. Virus Deaths Double in Three Days to Almost 3,000 (Published 2020)

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Friday that there had been 562 deaths due to the virus over the previous 24 hours, a higher toll than the state saw in the first 27 days of March.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

You’ll all have a job weather you want it or not
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is it legal to draft doctor civilians specifically? i can imagine many docs say screw you and not go, especially if PPE is lacking and pay is garbage
 
anbuitachi said:
is it legal to draft doctor civilians specifically? i can imagine many docs say screw you and not go, especially if PPE is lacking and pay is garbage
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I mean if they can draft you to go to war. FYI the federal selective service system has a medical draft in standby mode.


www.sss.gov
 
anbuitachi said:
is it legal to draft doctor civilians specifically? i can imagine many docs say screw you and not go, especially if PPE is lacking and pay is garbage
Click to expand...

you signed up for it when you got a medical license
 
DocMcCoy said:
Applying case fatality risk(rate) grossly overestimates fatalities when applied to an entire population (1-1.5%)
Click to expand...

No matter what the fatality risk is to a patient diagnosed, for this pandemic it will be important to retroactively look at overall population death rates to help shine light on the number of other conditions that had worse mortality because hospitals were dealing with this. The mortality rate from everything is going to be a little bit higher IMHO.
 
Mman said:
you signed up for it when you got a medical license
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I don’t remember signing up for anything of the sort when I got my medical license. That being said, any law passed to draft physicians will invariably have loss of medical license as a penalty for not complying Unethical? Absolutely. Legal? definitely should not be. If the need is so pressing hospitals or the government can offer a competitive salary. Would I risk my livelihood to fight with the government in a time of national emergency? Nope.
 
dannyboy1 said:
I don’t remember signing up for anything of the sort when I got my medical license. That being said, any law passed to draft physicians will invariably have loss of medical license as a penalty for not complying Unethical? Absolutely. Legal? definitely should not be. If the need is so pressing hospitals or the government can offer a competitive salary. Would I risk my livelihood to fight with the government in a time of national emergency? Nope.
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it is a condition of having a medical license and the law is decades old
 
anbuitachi said:
is it legal to draft doctor civilians specifically? i can imagine many docs say screw you and not go, especially if PPE is lacking and pay is garbage
Click to expand...


Main issue is whether they will somehow get the medical board involved and somehow tie it in with licensure e.t.c.
 
The coronavirus pandemic has created an economic crisis “like no other,” the top International Monetary Fund official said.

“Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill,” said IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

“This is in my lifetime humanity’s darkest hour, a big threat to the whole world, and it requires for us to stand united, be united,” Georgieva said during a World Health Organization press conference.

“It is way worse than the global financial crisis” of 2008-09, she said. “This is a crisis like no other.” —Dan Mangan
 
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BLADEMDA said:
The coronavirus pandemic has created an economic crisis “like no other,” the top International Monetary Fund official said.

“Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill,” said IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

“This is in my lifetime humanity’s darkest hour, a big threat to the whole world, and it requires for us to stand united, be united,” Georgieva said during a World Health Organization press conference.

“It is way worse than the global financial crisis” of 2008-09, she said. “This is a crisis like no other.” —Dan Mangan
Click to expand...

that's because this is a pandemic causing secondary economic effects and not a primary financial crisis.
 
What are the downsides, if any, of telling China that we are disregarding from here on out any debt we owe to them (as of now, slightly over $1 trillion)?

They allowed the virus to spread to bring down the global economy along with their own. Let's tell them that, as payback, we will no longer honor their T bills, bonds, etc.
 
radsisrad said:
What are the downsides, if any, of telling China that we are disregarding from here on out any debt we owe to them (as of now, slightly over $1 trillion)?

They allowed the virus to spread to bring down the global economy along with their own. Let's tell them that, as payback, we will no longer honor their T bills, bonds, etc.
Click to expand...

downside? ww3?
 
BLADEMDA said:
The coronavirus pandemic has created an economic crisis “like no other,” the top International Monetary Fund official said.

“Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill,” said IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

“This is in my lifetime humanity’s darkest hour, a big threat to the whole world, and it requires for us to stand united, be united,” Georgieva said during a World Health Organization press conference.

“It is way worse than the global financial crisis” of 2008-09, she said. “This is a crisis like no other.” —Dan Mangan
Click to expand...

this virus may accelerate china's rise to the new world power instead of US.
 
radsisrad said:
What are the downsides, if any, of telling China that we are disregarding from here on out any debt we owe to them (as of now, slightly over $1 trillion)?

They allowed the virus to spread to bring down the global economy along with their own. Let's tell them that, as payback, we will no longer honor their T bills, bonds, etc.
Click to expand...

you mean other than the fact that other countries will not want to borrow from us in the future? Our borrowing costs are so low because the American govt is seen as 100% reliable for repaying.
 
This virus didn’t start in a wet market as China claims. It originated possibly as a unintentional leak from the Wuhan institute of Virology which is the only level 4 biohazard institute in the whole of China.
Once the Chinese figured it out they sealed up the province completely and were somehow able to limit spread. They are lying about their mortality rates they are at least 20 times what they are stating. However it leaked out from the country and now its our problem. It’s mortality is not 1% its more like 10-20%.
 
radsisrad said:
What are the downsides, if any, of telling China that we are disregarding from here on out any debt we owe to them (as of now, slightly over $1 trillion)?

They allowed the virus to spread to bring down the global economy along with their own. Let's tell them that, as payback, we will no longer honor their T bills, bonds, etc.
Click to expand...

Lol brilliant plan, ace, except for the “crashing the entire global economy so badly it’ll make 2008 look like a picnic” part
 
Nephro critical care said:
This virus didn’t start in a wet market as China claims. It originated possibly as a unintentional leak from the Wuhan institute of Virology which is the only level 4 biohazard institute in the whole of China.
Once the Chinese figured it out they sealed up the province completely and were somehow able to limit spread. They are lying about their mortality rates they are at least 20 times what they are stating. However it leaked out from the country and now its our problem. It’s mortality is not 1% its more like 10-20%.
Click to expand...
Alex Jones would love to talk.
 
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