The ultimate COVID thread

[Mikkel]

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He didn't actually mean that we couldn't afford them.

The government and the hospitals can't afford them because it's not a priority. Saving the economy is more of a priority than protecting the healthcare workers. It's sad. They don't give a Damn about us.

So if hospitals can't get masks, how the hell will the regular person get a regular supply during a pandemic.

Masks are in short supply because demand is far outpacing existing inventory and existing production capacity.

Supply will increase as production is ramped up.

You don't need to make an incoherent moral argument when basic Econ 101 explains all of this.

 

[crash2500]

Masks are in short supply because demand is far outpacing existing inventory and existing production capacity.

Supply will increase as production is ramped up.

You don't need to make an incoherent moral argument when basic Econ 101 explains all of this.

Except if you knew what you were talking about, in addition to suppliers charging 10x normal costs, you'd know that if our president would use the defense production act we'd have plenty of supply of masks if the supply was actually the issue. It's not that hard to make a mask.

So either the powers that be don't want to spend the money, or they just don't give a Damn to do what it takes to increase the supply.

 

[deleted87051]

First this....

Slow Response to the Coronavirus Measured in Lost Opportunity (Published 2020)

If the administration had reacted to the ventilator shortage in February, a private sector effort starting now might have made lifesaving equipment in mid- to late April. Now it is unlikely to be before June.

www.nytimes.com

Now more delays because a billion is too much after blowing your $2trillion wad.....

After Considering $1 Billion Price Tag for Ventilators, White House Has Second Thoughts (Published 2020)

A deal with General Motors and Ventec Life Systems to produce tens of thousands of the critical lifesaving devices seemed imminent. Then the announcement was pulled back.

www.nytimes.com

Shouldn’t Pence our COVID leader be taking charge of this, coordinating the federal government response, directing resources where they need to go?

 

[Kevin Durant]

Bull trap, markets will bleed red the next few days.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

U.K. epidemiologist radically lowers his predicted coronavirus death toll

A British epidemiologist who earlier predicted the U.K. could suffer up to 500,000 coronavirus deaths has now testified the actual figure may be less than 20,000 and that the U.K. should have sufficient intensive care units to handle it.

www.washingtontimes.com

I really don't know who to believe, but I do believe the dooms day covid scenarios will not come true because incorrect assumptions were made about this virus. This downgrade of deaths in the UK is startling as we are in the middle of the largest science/socio/economic experiment in human history that is being constructed on the fly.

Not a conspiracy guy, but I can't blame the conspiracy guys that will come out linking the possibly overhyped Corona virus with the largest upward transfer of wealth in American history. Average Joe is getting $1200 while a rather small group will be splitting multiple who knows how many trillions.

Money is simply a medium of exchange. We don't all get richer by these giveaways. The pie is still the same size (smaller actually), the size of the slice got a lot larger for some and smaller for the majority. Blade is correct, this game has gone on for a while, pretty much since this whole debt driven boom started in the 80s, but I disagree with him in that each time we play this game the boom at the end gets exponentially more painful; basically a Madoff effect.

 

[Ezekiel2517]

U.K. epidemiologist radically lowers his predicted coronavirus death toll

A British epidemiologist who earlier predicted the U.K. could suffer up to 500,000 coronavirus deaths has now testified the actual figure may be less than 20,000 and that the U.K. should have sufficient intensive care units to handle it.

www.washingtontimes.com

I really don't know who to believe, but I do believe the dooms day covid scenarios will not come true because incorrect assumptions were made about this virus. This downgrade of deaths in the UK is startling as we are in the middle of the largest science/socio/economic experiment in human history that is being constructed on the fly.

Not a conspiracy guy, but I can't blame the conspiracy guys that will come out linking the possibly overhyped Corona virus with the largest upward transfer of wealth in American history. Average Joe is getting $1200 while a rather small group will be splitting multiple who knows how many trillions.

Money is simply a medium of exchange. We don't all get richer by these giveaways. The pie is still the same size (smaller actually), the size of the slice got a lot larger for some and smaller for the majority. Blade is correct, this game has gone on for a while, pretty much since this whole debt driven boom started in the 80s, but I disagree with him in that each time we play this game the boom at the end gets exponentially more painful; basically a Madoff effect.

That's not really what he said. He clarified those reports on twitter:

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Johnson lost his nerve and gained his senses. Now he’s begging people to stay home.

You're right. He folded up like a cheap chair haha.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

That's not really what he said. He clarified those reports on twitter:

Thank you for the update. It's hard to mark sense of the numbers when they constantly change, and just as important simply don't seem to make sense. We've all heard 5% or so go to ICUs, get intubated, and about 1% or so of the total die. This drives the flatten the curve movement to keep the ICUs open so the majority of those critical patients can get adequate treatment and do well.

The problem with that is anecdotally speaking with colleagues in the trenches and reading other reports, I'm seeing 70-85% of the intubated patients are dying (are others seeing differently?). That would seem to make it not nearly as successful to free up ICUs and ventilators, especially for those that have a lot of preexisting issues. They also are spending a long time on the vent so the survivors have a high chance of permanent lung damage, so how many will get out of these ICUs with good functionality?

My mom is quite elderly in a senior living facility in a covid growing city, and I'm leaning towards getting the family together for discussing do not intubate.

 

[Mad Jack]

see temporary disruption is by definition temporary. It doesn't matter if it is a week or a year. That's not to say it doesn't matter to those individual people, but the fundamentals of how the economy works won't change.

Did you miss the part about places going out of business, and those employees no longer being there? Millions of workers removed from the work force? Millions of mortgages, car payments, and loans defaulting? These things snowball. While all things are temporary, this is *definitely* more than enough to kick off a global recession.

 

[LineAndBerry]

That's not really what he said. He clarified those reports on twitter:

Ferguson predicted the end of the world and it's not happening and now he's making qualifiers which are impossible to prove.

 

[marr65]

What a load of crap. Ferguson predicted the end of the world and it's not happening and now he's making qualifiers which are impossible to prove. Ferguson has been wrong about everything. I've read his ridiculous books.

You are on a board with educated posters, care to expend on your rhetoric? What makes him load of crap? Why should we not listen to him? What qualifiers are impossible to prove? I’m just trying to learn, if you have insights please post.

 

[Mman]

Small businesses go under and can't recover.

why can't they recover? Nobody is getting evicted right now from anywhere because there is nobody else to fill a spot?

 

[Mman]

Coal mining, steel mills, manufacturing, etc.

temporary and will reopen. I mean except for coal maybe of which the decline has little to do with a virus.

 

[Mman]

Did you miss the part about places going out of business, and those employees no longer being there? Millions of workers removed from the work force? Millions of mortgages, car payments, and loans defaulting? These things snowball. While all things are temporary, this is *definitely* more than enough to kick off a global recession.

yes, a recession because workplaces and workers are being held back against their will and consumers are being prevented against their will from spending. But those things bounce back very quickly when forced restrictions are removed.

To suggest those businesses will not reopen and those employees will not be rehired absolutely requires that they both act against their own best interests. Unless of course you are suggesting consumers will not be out spending money. And honestly after being forced into their own homes for weeks and months I would find that very difficult to believe.

 

[Mman]

Maybe you should try eating elsewhere than McD's and get your oil changed elsewhere than JiffyLube...

honestly haven't been to either in probably 20 years, but those are the kind of places laying off workers right now and they will instantly have them back

 

[LineAndBerry]

You are on a board with educated posters, care to expend on your rhetoric? What makes him load of crap? Why should we not listen to him? What qualifiers are impossible to prove? I’m just trying to learn, if you have insights please post.

OK, I toned it down. He just seems to get almost all of his predictions wrong: For example, his "End of Hisory" thesis was really overwrought intellectual bloviation.

 

[coffeebythelake]

which ones?

Pretty sure McDonald's will be selling burgers again. I assume your neighborhood Jiffy Lube will still be changing oil. It is temporary.

Landlords still charge rent. People still need money to buy food and feed themselves. Calling it temporary means nothing when people are living paycheck to paycheck k

 

[Mad Jack]

yes, a recession because workplaces and workers are being held back against their will and consumers are being prevented against their will from spending. But those things bounce back very quickly when forced restrictions are removed.

To suggest those businesses will not reopen and those employees will not be rehired absolutely requires that they both act against their own best interests. Unless of course you are suggesting consumers will not be out spending money. And honestly after being forced into their own homes for weeks and months I would find that very difficult to believe.

There is a very strong chance that forced closures will cycle, period. Just going about business as usual is a horrifically bad policy from an epidemiological perspective. The market is not more important than lives, period

 

[Mman]

Landlords still charge rent. People still need money to buy food and feed themselves. Calling it temporary means nothing when people are living paycheck to paycheck k

we all agree it is a disaster right now. My point is when the disaster is over, people will go back to work and they will be spending money. The point of the stimulus is to bridge to that time.

 

[Mman]

There is a very strong chance that forced closures will cycle, period. Just going about business as usual is a horrifically bad policy from an epidemiological perspective. The market is not more important than lives, period

seems a bit early to project the next 5-10 years of epidemiology for a virus.

 

[OTCAwesome]

no hate. I’m envious. You have knowledge no one else does. Post your positions and $ amounts prior to market open and we will track in real time. If after 2 weeks you’re a soothsayer like you say you are then I’ll follow along and give you 5% of everything I make.

Got into SOXS and SDOW yesterday, going to follow my stop losses at open. Going to get some SOXL shortly after open with the hope there is a bump once they pass the stimulus bill. In a market like this, it's all educated gambling, but so far I'm beating the house.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

yes, a recession because workplaces and workers are being held back against their will and consumers are being prevented against their will from spending. But those things bounce back very quickly when forced restrictions are removed.

To suggest those businesses will not reopen and those employees will not be rehired absolutely requires that they both act against their own best interests. Unless of course you are suggesting consumers will not be out spending money. And honestly after being forced into their own homes for weeks and months I would find that very difficult to believe.

Don't underestimate the government's ability to hinder a recovery by incentivizing people not to work. The faster way to an economic recovery is to provide no more than a minimal safety net, ie food and necessities, not a huge hammock to keep up their same level of lifestyle.

 

[coffeebythelake]

we all agree it is a disaster right now. My point is when the disaster is over, people will go back to work and they will be spending money. The point of the stimulus is to bridge to that time.

The same can be said of basically every other recession in history. You think people didnt want to work during the great depression? Or in 2008?Dude.

 

[Mman]

The same can be said of basically every other recession in history. You think people didnt want to work during the great depression? Or in 2008?Dude.

if you can't understand the absolute fundamental differences between a virus forcing people (and businesses) to hide in their houses and something like the Great Depression or the Financial implosion in 2008 I am not sure where to even begin.

 

[deleted171991]

‘The Other Option Is Death’: New York Starts Sharing of Ventilators (Published 2020)

To keep coronavirus patients breathing, hospitals are pioneering a little-tested method.

www.nytimes.com

 

[deleted171991]

Next outbreak in 2-3 weeks:

'Foolishness and Foolery': Churches, Stores Reopen As Governor Overrides Mayors’ COVID-19 Orders' - Mississippi Free Press

Roadside mannequins are inviting residents of Moss Point, Miss., to resume shopping at a local clothing store, restaurants are returning their dine-in services, and churches are re-opening their doors for services. Mayor Mario King described the burgeoning renewal in commerce and social life...

www.mississippifreepress.com

 

[Mikkel]

Except if you knew what you were talking about, in addition to suppliers charging 10x normal costs, you'd know that if our president would use the defense production act we'd have plenty of supply of masks if the supply was actually the issue. It's not that hard to make a mask.

So either the powers that be don't want to spend the money, or they just don't give a Damn to do what it takes to increase the supply.

Distributors are charging more because of supply and demand.

Because of the increase in the equilibrium price, suppliers will be incentivized to manufacture more. Thus, they will be increasing overall supply, and net effect decreasing the equilibrium price.

Economics 101 vs Communism 101... please educate yourself before you continue to make a fool of yourself.

 

[deleted171991]

The Best Books about Financial Panics - The Irrelevant Investor

The best books that I've read about financial panics.

theirrelevantinvestor.com

 

[deleted171991]

Except if you knew what you were talking about, in addition to suppliers charging 10x normal costs, you'd know that if our president would use the defense production act we'd have plenty of supply of masks if the supply was actually the issue. It's not that hard to make a mask.

So either the powers that be don't want to spend the money, or they just don't give a Damn to do what it takes to increase the supply.

You are right.

The demand may be almost endless, because it's worldwide. Other things that are in demand aren't necessarily that profitable, especially if one considers the fixed costs of a completely new product (e.g. car factory making ventilators).

Btw, the powers are corrupt. There is a LOT of lobbying (read Money) in the WH not to use the Defense Production Act. It's all just PR.

 

[deleted171991]

if you can't understand the absolute fundamental differences between a virus forcing people (and businesses) to hide in their houses and something like the Great Depression or the Financial implosion in 2008 I am not sure where to even begin.

The longer this lasts, the higher the psychological and financial repercussions. People who experienced the Great Depression in the 1930s became supersavers for life. At least short-term, a lot more Americans will save money for future black swans.

 

[deleted126335]

The longer this lasts, the higher the psychological and financial repercussions. People who experienced the Great Depression in the 1930s became supersavers for life. At least short-term, a lot more Americans will save money for future black swans.

Yup. My father was homeless and hungry multiple times during the depression. Affected him for life.

 

[crash2500]

Distributors are charging more because of supply and demand.

Because of the increase in the equilibrium price, suppliers will be incentivized to manufacture more. Thus, they will be increasing overall supply, and net effect decreasing the equilibrium price.

Economics 101 vs Communism 101... please educate yourself before you continue to make a fool of yourself.

Wow thanks for teaching me about supply and demand. Don't know what I would do without you.

The point is no matter the cost it's miniscule for the federal government yet they don't seem to feel the need to pay the price to buy them, *****.

But you obviously miss the point because all you can fixate on is your obvious right wing agenda.

 

[parcus]

if you can't understand the absolute fundamental differences between a virus forcing people (and businesses) to hide in their houses and something like the Great Depression or the Financial implosion in 2008 I am not sure where to even begin.

This has been a depression in the making for several years now, if not decades. The economy was terrible before this virus started, you were just too high on the stock market coolaid to realize it. This is easily proven by the fact that all the companies are already broke the first month of the crisis! What took the fed 9 months to do in 2009 they did in 2 WEEKS! The people are broke. to top it off, everyone is getting bailed out by a broke government. Again, this all took just a few weeks to develop.

But yes, you are right, people who think things are just going back to normal are delusional. Society will change a lot now that there is a deadly virus out there that can be easily transmitted by close contacts. A big restructuring of the economy will be necessary.

 

[coffeebythelake]

This has been a depression in the making for several years now, if not decades. The economy was terrible before this virus started, you were just too high on the stock market coolaid to realize it. This is easily proven by the fact that all the companies are already broke the first month of the crisis! What took the fed 9 months to do in 2009 they did in 2 WEEKS! The people are broke. to top it off, everyone is getting bailed out by a broke government. Again, this all took just a few weeks to develop.

But yes, you are right, people who think things are just going back to normal are delusional. Society will change a lot now that there is a deadly virus out there that can be easily transmitted by close contacts. A big restructuring of the economy will be necessary.

Are they really broke? When you pull all the profits for stock buybacks and ceo bonuses is that surprising? This is poor planning on the part of these massive multibillion dollar corporations. When you know you can get a bailout because you are too big to fail, it creates a ratcheting effect

 

[Mikkel]

Wow thanks for teaching me about supply and demand. Don't know what I would do without you.

The point is no matter the cost it's miniscule for the federal government yet they don't seem to feel the need to pay the price to buy them, *****.

But you obviously miss the point because all you can fixate on is your obvious right wing agenda.

You're welcome, you definitely needed the help in understanding basic econ 101, I'm glad I was able to help you.

But you're wrong about procurement, masks are being bought and given to hospitals that need them via FEMA.

So you really don't have any point at all.

 

[coffeebythelake]

if you can't understand the absolute fundamental differences between a virus forcing people (and businesses) to hide in their houses and something like the Great Depression or the Financial implosion in 2008 I am not sure where to even begin.

Yeah the difference now is that people are afraid of dying. Not from starvation necessarily, but on a ventilator in an ICU somewhere. Right now we have idiots going to the park enmasse and defying orders to self isolate. Trump thinks we will be business as usual by Easter!! As the shock of infected and dead truly shows, people will be afraid to even step out their doors.

 

[BLADEMDA]

AlphaOne Capital Partners founding partner Dan Niles spoke about where the market is headed from here on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday.
Niles said stocks’ rally this week was a classic bear market rally and that the market will soon retest its lows or create new lows.
AlphaOneCapital’s fund, which is now positive for the year, has added back short-positions, expecting stocks will go down again.


Be patient. We should re-test 2350 and maybe 2200/2150. Some think we could still drop to 2000. I'm a buyer aggressively at 2200.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Got into SOXS and SDOW yesterday, going to follow my stop losses at open. Going to get some SOXL shortly after open with the hope there is a bump once they pass the stimulus bill. In a market like this, it's all educated gambling, but so far I'm beating the house.

Careful here. The House almost always wins. I think the market is expensive for where we are at in terms of Covid 19. I am optimistic about a July/August stock market recovery but we have a long way to go until then.

 

[crash2500]

You're welcome, you definitely needed the help in understanding basic econ 101, I'm glad I was able to help you.

But you're wrong about procurement, masks are being bought and given to hospitals that need them via FEMA.

So you really don't have any point at all.

Right....

Yet the whole country is still being instructed to reuse masks.

Your infantile arguments are not worth my time.

 

[BLADEMDA]

• “If the economic shutdown goes beyond April into the third quarter, I would be less optimistic,” longtime investor Leon Cooperman told CNBC on Friday.
• “I think it’s gone as far as it should go,” the Omega Advisors founder said of the market drop.
• “The market is in the zone of fair valuation,” he added, and investors should stay “very defensive” until more is known about the trajectory of the coronavirus in the U.S.

Cooperman also thinks we will re-test the lows or very near it of 2200. Once get get to 2350 the professionals will start buying some stocks because that is within 5% of the anticipated low re-test of 2200. We may not even hold 2200 as 2150 is a better line of support.

 

[BLADEMDA]

• Stocks have bounced hard, and the major indexes have now made up more than half their losses.
• But technical analysts say the market will have to successfully retest the lows in order for the market to have bottomed.
• The test could come as corporate earnings season unfolds in mid-April, and as fresh economic data reveals how hard the shutdowns of business and other activity have hit the economy.

The stock market just experienced a bounce for the record books, but more bad news will test it

Major stock indexes have made back more than half their losses this week, but analysts say the bottom may not be in.

www.cnbc.com

 

[BLADEMDA]

You don't need to get the exact bottom to make money. If you are a long term investor then buying equities below an S and P of 2300 is a great entry point. But, that's 10% lower than yesterday's close and the market could easily drop even further when it retests 2200 in a week or two.

 

[BLADEMDA]

 

[Mikkel]

Right....

Yet the whole country is still being instructed to reuse masks.

Your infantile arguments are not worth my time.

Hospitals are stretching their existing inventory through prolonged use and reuse until manufacturers are able to ramp up supply to meet the massively increased demand (perhaps 100-1000x typical levels on a rolling basis).

This next part is more advanced economics, hopefully I can explain it simply enough. Factories that are not designed for making masks will need to be retooled to make masks, and this is a process that takes months to years depending on what the original product is, ie stamped paper goods takes far less time and resources to convert to paper mask production compared to a stamped metal fabricating factory making the switch.

 

[Mman]

The longer this lasts, the higher the psychological and financial repercussions. People who experienced the Great Depression in the 1930s became supersavers for life. At least short-term, a lot more Americans will save money for future black swans.

thank goodness this is not the Great Depression then

 

[Mikkel]

Hospitals are stretching their existing inventory through prolonged use and reuse until manufacturers are able to ramp up supply to meet the massively increased demand (perhaps 100-1000x typical levels on a rolling basis).

This next part is more advanced economics, hopefully I can explain it simply enough. Factories that are not designed for making masks will need to be retooled to make masks, and this is a process that takes months to years depending on what the original product is, ie stamped paper goods takes far less time and resources to convert to paper mask production compared to a stamped metal fabricating factory making the switch.

@crash2500 To add, due to outsourcing, most mask production happens outside the USA in places like China. Because we don't have significant domestic production, we need government policy to encourage production of necessary goods in the United States, which is something that Donald Trump campaigned on and has been working towards, via executive order, legislation, and trade negotiation. Reversing the outsourcing trend takes years to decades to accomplish.

 

[Mad Jack]

seems a bit early to project the next 5-10 years of epidemiology for a virus.

18 months, not 5-10 years. Cutting of a large percentage of economic output for that long of a period of time will be devastating to companies without cash reserves, which is most companies these days. It's been a few weeks and Cheesecake Factory, which employs tens of thousands, already can't pay their rent nationwide. Hundreds of thousands of small businesses are in similar situations

 

[deleted87051]

You're welcome, you definitely needed the help in understanding basic econ 101, I'm glad I was able to help you.

But you're wrong about procurement, masks are being bought and given to hospitals that need them via FEMA.

So you really don't have any point at all.

Where are these mythical FEMA masks?

 

[coffeebythelake]

Where are these mythical FEMA masks?

In a warehouse somewhere
Or money in some persons pocket
Dont know which is worse

 

[Mman]

18 months, not 5-10 years. Cutting of a large percentage of economic output for that long of a period of time will be devastating to companies without cash reserves, which is most companies these days. It's been a few weeks and Cheesecake Factory, which employs tens of thousands, already can't pay their rent nationwide. Hundreds of thousands of small businesses are in similar situations

what happens right now if they can't pay rent? Do you think they will be evicted by someone that has literally nobody else that can move in and do anything?

not paying rent during a normal time would get you evicted because someone else will take your spot. That is not happening.