There is a lot of big “if’s” built into your maths.
First of all, let’s expand on the realities of the potential income. In dentistry, incomes are not constant from decade to decade. It’s typically in 3 phases; the learning curve income, the peak of your powers income, and the slowing down income. The “average” between the 3 stages in ortho is probably $300-400k PRE-TAX. or $200-300k POST-TAX if you file jointly/married. That’s $17-25k/month take home on average for an orthodontist’s career, today! Remember, it’s an average, some years they would make more (peak years), some years less (beginning and the end of the career). Now that we’ve established what to expect in income, let’s look at the next thing... the debt.
The 600-800k debt in 2022 (which we all agree will be higher for future doctors). Under a 25 years repayment plan (the longest repayment plan), the monthly repayment is about 6-8k a month POST-TAX. If a doctor wants to pay it back sooner, great!... we know the average income over career is 17-25k/month POST-TAX, so the 6-8k debt repayment is about 40-50% of the average income. Pay more debt, less for you and your family. It’s definitely doable.
Now ask yourself this... you worked VERY hard to become an orthodontist to get good grades (deep stress and sweat) and UNPAID residency, took out TONS of debt, busted your butt at work (we all know real world is no joke when you are in the grind)... and you can’t even enjoy it financially when it’s all said and done. Half of your average paycheck goes towards student loans for a VERY long time. Even if you work harder and pay off the debt sooner, you would sacrifice your most energetic and enjoyable years of life to focus on paying debt off instead of saving more. It gives the meaning of “enjoying the fruits of your labor” a whole different meaning. When you get to your late 40’a and early 50’s, you would finally enjoy yourself. That’s just wrong.
Its odd to me how someone would justify a debt that keeps rising can be negated with an inelastic average income. There are only a set number of patients an orthodontist can see a day. So much the insurances and patients can pay. Our body can only handle so much effort over a career. But with debt, if it’s is only growing, all bets are off.