Class of 2021 job market insights

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I had a very similar thought back in January of this year.

All these RNs are doing online NP work, but they're not even functional RNs. NP will be the new RN

Pretty much every 1 in 2 ICU RNs I work with are in NP school. And they all want to be ICU NPs... There are a few I personally know that have continued working as RNs after becoming NPs because my area is pretty saturated.

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Pretty much every 1 in 2 ICU RNs I work with are in NP school. And they all want to be ICU NPs... There are a few I personally know that have continued working as RNs after becoming NPs because my area is pretty saturated.

Its bad.
Those in my neck of the woods want to do derm or something cosmetic because Florida.

We have a solid "No NPs" policy at my shop.
 
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All these NPs are only driving down their salaries. The decrease in patient volume has destroyed mid level hours in my area - just as much as docs. Right now nurses are making more than NP in my area because of reduced hours.
 
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Pretty much every 1 in 2 ICU RNs I work with are in NP school. And they all want to be ICU NPs... There are a few I personally know that have continued working as RNs after becoming NPs because my area is pretty saturated.

During my residency we had few ICU RNs in NP school. They used to frequently challenge the intensivist recommendation because they don't agree with it. They think their half baked knowledge and nursing experience is better than someone who finished medschool, residency and fellowship.

Just as an ICU RN they are very pompous. They are very malignant to floor nurses and interns. Can't imagine how over the board these will act if they are hired.
 
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New grad and got completely furloughed, then terminated in May (asked if I had any other options, when I signed my contract last yr). Unexpected change in plans, longer than anticipated gap (not something I wanted, just what happened with sudden change in plans). No physician from the group ever contacted me (it wasn't a CMG). Similar situations (drop in shifts, dates getting pushed back) happened to multiple people I know. The jig is up.
 
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One thing I'm curious about is all the FM/IM docs working in EM right now. I'm witnessing for the first time in my city that EDs that traditionally would have never stipulated ABEM only requirements d/t not enough of them in the area, are now starting to do that...and having success in hiring them. With all the influx of new ABEM grads, do you guys think that will immediately drive down salaries/threaten job security or do you think all the IM/FM docs with experience will get pushed out first to more rural and rural locations until there's nothing left? I would have never thought that would happen in my lifetime but I'm starting to wonder.
 
Certainly frustrating and I feel for you. Not all of this is the traditional market for EPs. COVID-19 resulted in significantly decreased volumes for everyone resulting in shifts reduced/cut, compensation decreases and hiring freezes. We were planning to hire 2-4 new physicians this year primarily due to consistently increasing volumes and growth. Once COVID-19 hit we experienced a 50% volume drop like many and put a hold on hiring. I expect volumes to come back and more hiring to return. It may just not significantly happen until next Spring. New grads this year are going to be hurting the most. The sky isn’t completely falling though and job opportunities will bounce back. I know residency expansion and mid level proliferation has everyone concerned, but right now COVID-19 has created a bigger temporary impact on hiring. Hang in there!
I keep hearing this, regarding volumes and all, and we have seen an increase in volumes where I just finished up-it isn't back to baseline though and not close, across the board and at any of the sites, including the urgent cares. I do wonder though if volumes will ever recover to 100% or more capacity tbh, and we have just seen a fundamental shift in thinking. In which case there's gonna be a lot of jobless new grads (like some specialities), or people going to fellowships much, much, sooner than anticipated. Only time will tell, but it could be sooner.
 
I think a big shift has happened and we will not get back to normal volumes for a long time. Prepare for lean years to come.
 
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The main problem is that there's a large number of patients who've decided to stop using the ER as their primary care provider because they're scared of catching the coronavirus. This isn't going to change until the virus goes away due either to a vaccine or herd immunity both of which could possibly take years. Its not what anyone wants to hear but there's currently no indication that volumes will return to normal anytime soon.
Hell in the worst hot spots like NYC most hospitals are still at 50% volumes and have cut as much as half their shifts.
 
The main problem is that there's a large number of patients who've decided to stop using the ER as their primary care provider because they're scared of catching the coronavirus. This isn't going to change until the virus goes away due either to a vaccine or herd immunity both of which could possibly take years. Its not what anyone wants to hear but there's currently no indication that volumes will return to normal anytime soon.
Hell in the worst hot spots like NYC most hospitals are still at 50% volumes and have cut as much as half their shifts.

I wish my volume went back to 50%.

We're back to about 80 percent of pre-covid volumes. Each week volume creeps back up a little bit.
 
I wish my volume went back to 50%.

We're back to about 80 percent of pre-covid volumes. Each week volume creeps back up a little bit.

Yeah, we're back at close to normal volumes at my hospital, but the staffing hasn't been changed back because the CMG is in search of more money.

1593044348941.png
 
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I had a very similar thought back in January of this year.

All these RNs are doing online NP work, but they're not even functional RNs. NP will be the new RN
At our ED I would say 50% either are in class or say they want to be a NP - but one of our best Rn's is the guy who "just went" to community college (no BSN) and often reminds everybody of that.. Considering I work in a field were our degree is overrated (a PharmD shouldn't be a doctorate - but so many healthcare professions feel the need to become "doctors") - I appreciate the value of real world experience over some fancy degree
 
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NPs have killed their profession following the way of pharmacists. Hang a 100K job, make it easy to get the degree esp online while you work a full time RN job. Who would not take that? If Med school could be done online while holding down a full time job, MDs would be killed too.

Everyone needs to step off a ledge. Many fields have the same cyclical paranoia, EM being no different. Lets take many of the subsurgical specialties out of the equation b/c most can't get a residency spot. Lets look at what many of us could go into.

I can't think of a field I would pick before EM.

Of all the 3 year field, who would not do EM again? Seriously? IM/Peds/FM is about it.

Anesthesia - Big NO. 4 yrs, possibly fellowship to work for a CMG with the same issues EM has?
OB - Big NO. Again, likely will work for a big OB group the way things are heading.
Gen Surg - 5 yrs? Good luck owning your own practice. Prob work for some big group/hospital
Rad - Anyone remember 20 yrs ago? 5 years plus likely fellowship. I would not. That is a 5-7 yr vs 3 yrs with just as much uncertainty. Rad is under the same insurance pressure and hospital pressures any EM
IM subspecialty - GI maybe? Cards is getting reamed too by insurance. CC - fellowship to do what? Take care of sick pts all the time?

Maybe I have rose colored glasses. I have been lucky to come out when rates were high and jobs plentiful. Now that EM is tight, I work mostly in my FSED making more than I could at a hospital ER seeing 1/3 the patients while not having to tow the hospital/CMG line.
 
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Within the NP profession, I suspect wages will go down in the long run with all the online degree mills and the overabundance of graduates from these programs. As has been alluded to earlier, every RN and their mom wants to become an NP now. NPs have been getting wrecked in terms of layoffs and furloughs secondary to COVID, probably hit harder than physicians in many areas.

That being said, when you compare physicians to NPs, there is no question that NPs have the upper leg than we do, for the simple reason that they are willing to work for less money. I can imagine a day when many NPs are clawing for 5 spots, but there will also be many physicians clawing for 1 spot. I don't envision a time when the pendulum swings the other way that people stop going into NP school, NP jobs are abundant and open, and physicians are now filling in those spots, for the simple reason that we typically demand a higher pay. But who knows, with the 90$/hr rates that physicians are accepting now to work in Denver, maybe we can be NPs too and get in on the action!
 
Are there really hospital based jobs in Denver for 90/hr?
If I’m desperate I would do 140/hr. After that im moving
 
Man, I don't know what to believe. I know it "feels" like we're getting an oversupply of EM docs but this was just released other day. What gives?

 
Man, I don't know what to believe. I know it "feels" like we're getting an oversupply of EM docs but this was just released other day. What gives?



Info from the report they got this from specifically related to EM


"From 2011 to 2016 indicates that over time, the proportion of ED visits where a patient is seen exclusively by a physician has been declining. 72% of ED patients were seen by a physician but not an APRN or PA, and 28% were seen by an APRN or PA (with many of these patients also seen by a physician). As a proxy for the degree to which APRNs and PAs and physicians overlap in the ED setting, we calculated the ratio of visits where an APRN or PA (and possibly a physician) saw the patient to visits where only a physician did: 2:5, or 39%. If we use it as a proxy for the degree to which APRNs and PAs offset demand for physicians across all specialty areas, the overall physician-demand projections are almost identical to physician demand under the APRN/PA High Scenario, at 834,000 physicians by 2033.



We modeled an 18% decline in emergency visits relative to the Status Quo demand projections, with a corresponding decrease in demand for emergency physicians. The modeled 18% decline starts with estimates by Truven Analytics that 71% of emergency visits by people with employer-sponsored health insurance are potentially avoidable (either by diverting the visit to an appropriate ambulatory setting or by having treated the medical condition that precipitated the visit). We assume this 71% estimate approximates potentially avoidable emergency visits for the Medicaid, Medicare, and uninsured populations. Not all potentially avoidable emergency visits can be prevented or diverted, and we modeled a 25% reduction in these visits. Thus, the 18% decline assumption reflects a 25% reduction of the 71% of potentially avoidable emergency visits. We assume each averted emergency visit would be replaced by an ambulatory visit to a physician office or outpatient or clinic setting, with ambulatory visits prorated across Primary Care and Medical Specialists (with about two-thirds of redirected visits being patients



The impact by 2033 of this scenario component is a 9,700-FTE decrease in demand for emergency physicians"
 
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Man, I don't know what to believe. I know it "feels" like we're getting an oversupply of EM docs but this was just released other day. What gives?


Oh please don't show this to AANP and AAPA, they will injected another bolus of fresh graduates. Midlevel frenzy is beyond control even right now.
 
Info from the report they got this from specifically related to EM


"From 2011 to 2016 indicates that over time, the proportion of ED visits where a patient is seen exclusively by a physician has been declining. 72% of ED patients were seen by a physician but not an APRN or PA, and 28% were seen by an APRN or PA (with many of these patients also seen by a physician). As a proxy for the degree to which APRNs and PAs and physicians overlap in the ED setting, we calculated the ratio of visits where an APRN or PA (and possibly a physician) saw the patient to visits where only a physician did: 2:5, or 39%. If we use it as a proxy for the degree to which APRNs and PAs offset demand for physicians across all specialty areas, the overall physician-demand projections are almost identical to physician demand under the APRN/PA High Scenario, at 834,000 physicians by 2033.



We modeled an 18% decline in emergency visits relative to the Status Quo demand projections, with a corresponding decrease in demand for emergency physicians. The modeled 18% decline starts with estimates by Truven Analytics that 71% of emergency visits by people with employer-sponsored health insurance are potentially avoidable (either by diverting the visit to an appropriate ambulatory setting or by having treated the medical condition that precipitated the visit). We assume this 71% estimate approximates potentially avoidable emergency visits for the Medicaid, Medicare, and uninsured populations. Not all potentially avoidable emergency visits can be prevented or diverted, and we modeled a 25% reduction in these visits. Thus, the 18% decline assumption reflects a 25% reduction of the 71% of potentially avoidable emergency visits. We assume each averted emergency visit would be replaced by an ambulatory visit to a physician office or outpatient or clinic setting, with ambulatory visits prorated across Primary Care and Medical Specialists (with about two-thirds of redirected visits being patients



The impact by 2033 of this scenario component is a 9,700-FTE decrease in demand for emergency physicians"
1593753499800.png
 
One thing I'm curious about is all the FM/IM docs working in EM right now. I'm witnessing for the first time in my city that EDs that traditionally would have never stipulated ABEM only requirements d/t not enough of them in the area, are now starting to do that...and having success in hiring them. With all the influx of new ABEM grads, do you guys think that will immediately drive down salaries/threaten job security or do you think all the IM/FM docs with experience will get pushed out first to more rural and rural locations until there's nothing left? I would have never thought that would happen in my lifetime but I'm starting to wonder.

Well, I decided to take a new job. It's with TH which I have a little experience with (PRN in the remote past) but not really... It's a bigger hospital with pretty much all subspecialties, echmo is also available, I can supposedly do a-lines in the ED, CO2 monitoring for all rooms. They have a dedicated Peds ER run by the pediatricians, so there's no peds in the Adult ED which although I'm 100% comfortable with peds, I certainly won't mind. Young crowd, lots of baby new grads and not many seasoned docs. Everyone is 100% ABEM though or BE. It sounds like it would be fun to do a little mentoring and I'm sure the young whipper snappers would keep me on my toes. Pay is about what I'm making now ~@267/hr avg for last year. I'll be giving up my AFMD stipend with Apollo (4K/mo) so it's actually a pay cut for me by about 48K/yr though due to hours being cut with COVID at my current gig, and longer hours at the new one...it turns out to be less than that. The AFMD stipend has really been what's kept me at my current job but the hospital got bought and a merger is inevitable which will most likely lead to a contract group change. I've been through these transitions before and it's always a cluster f**k. Nobody can tell you anything until 2 days before contract change and then you suddenly get a new contract, aren't credentialed anywhere else and are pressured to sign under duress. I swore I'd never go through that again, so here I am suddenly jumping ship after 6.5 yrs at this gig. Also, in my experience....during contract changes there's always a sig percentage of docs that decide to leave and I don't want to be in a position where I'm competing with several other docs for any available jobs in my city, especially with the current increasing supply of applicants these day. I figured I'd take a gamble and snag a good one early on while it's still available. I really hate change though.... I'll miss knowing all my consultants really well and knowing the system inside and out. Now I've got to gain respect from an entirely new hospital staff and learn a new system all over again. EMR is Epic. I've got some experience with it but it's been years....like at least 7 or 8. I've really grown accustomed to Cerner but I'm sure Epic will be fine. One perk is that the hospital is literally within jogging distance from my house. It's about 2.5 minutes up the road so at least there's that.
 
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For what it’s worth I’ve used both Cerner and Epic, and once you get used to Epic they’d have to drag you kicking and screaming to ever go back to using Cerner again. Best wishes with the new job!

Would echo this sentiment. Started off with medhost, then transitioned to Epic with Dragon Dictation. Can't imagine using another EMR now. And yeah, congrats on the new gig @Groove
 
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I work with both Cerner and Epic at both my hospitals. Cerner is not great but is doable for the most part. Epic is so damn big (at least the Kaiser platform) it's huge and there are 100 ways to do everything, and when there are 100 ways to do every command there is too much bloat. It's huge and needs to be streamlined.
 
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Nice depressing thread. I know it’s near impossible But man oh man. If you can be a partner in a sdg so much of this doesn’t matter. Keep the hospital happy, make more money, don’t worry about mlps and have some control and full transparency.
 
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Nice depressing thread. I know it’s near impossible But man oh man. If you can be a partner in a cmg so much of this doesn’t matter. Keep the hospital happy, make more money, don’t worry about mlps and have some control and full transparency.

You mean SDG not CMG, right?
 
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Volumes are approaching normal at my main residency site, way up from where they were in March/April. The negative correlation between COVID numbers and ER volumes seen earlier this year does not seem to exist anymore. The COVIDs, the traumas, and the fibromyalgias are all here together.
 
Volumes are approaching normal at my main residency site, way up from where they were in March/April. The negative correlation between COVID numbers and ER volumes seen earlier this year does not seem to exist anymore. The COVIDs, the traumas, and the fibromyalgias are all here together.

Yup, no one's afraid of covid anymore, especially not the narco seekers. Also, COVID reassurance should be an official diagnosis, given how many covid bounce backs that are totally stable and don't need to be admitted keep coming back.
 
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Yup, no one's afraid of covid anymore, especially not the narco seekers. Also, COVID reassurance should be an official diagnosis, given how many covid bounce backs that are totally stable and don't need to be admitted keep coming back.
Truth!

Total sea change from the spring. Then, it seemed like the general public anxiety was far out of proportion to the threat, but I was able to have reasonable conversations with the mildly affected patients (no treatment, just supportive care, keep an eye out for dyspnea, etc...). Now back to the old norm of people being pissed about waiting an extra 15 min for the xray of their bumped knee b/c we were intubating the patient next door and the mild covids being all "bUt WhY dO i fEEl so siCK DoCToR"

Well I guess the one constant is the young mothers bringing in their 2 year old w/ fever or sniffles overly freaked out. Some things never change.
 
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On EM as an off-service rotator.

Right before my rotation, they changed the night hours on one team.
Started off on the night team. Told to go home at 3AM because it was DEAD on two shifts.
Midway through, they eliminated this entire team for five out of seven days.
 
The sky is falling, the sky is falling. Same cry that has been going on in the Anesthesia forms for the last 20 years yet year after year you see salaries go up and no shortage of jobs (both in Anesthesia and EM). Now I remember why I stopped posting here, too many pessimists.

Oddly enough none of our recent graduates had difficulty findings jobs and those who weren't bound to a particular location said SDGs were available. One is doing 13 8/10-hour shifts a month and making $350k+. In the midst of the pandemic. We'll be fine.
 
NPs have killed their profession following the way of pharmacists. Hang a 100K job, make it easy to get the degree esp online while you work a full time RN job. Who would not take that? If Med school could be done online while holding down a full time job, MDs would be killed too.

Everyone needs to step off a ledge. Many fields have the same cyclical paranoia, EM being no different. Lets take many of the subsurgical specialties out of the equation b/c most can't get a residency spot. Lets look at what many of us could go into.

I can't think of a field I would pick before EM.

Of all the 3 year field, who would not do EM again? Seriously? IM/Peds/FM is about it.

Anesthesia - Big NO. 4 yrs, possibly fellowship to work for a CMG with the same issues EM has?
OB - Big NO. Again, likely will work for a big OB group the way things are heading.
Gen Surg - 5 yrs? Good luck owning your own practice. Prob work for some big group/hospital
Rad - Anyone remember 20 yrs ago? 5 years plus likely fellowship. I would not. That is a 5-7 yr vs 3 yrs with just as much uncertainty. Rad is under the same insurance pressure and hospital pressures any EM
IM subspecialty - GI maybe? Cards is getting reamed too by insurance. CC - fellowship to do what? Take care of sick pts all the time?

Maybe I have rose colored glasses. I have been lucky to come out when rates were high and jobs plentiful. Now that EM is tight, I work mostly in my FSED making more than I could at a hospital ER seeing 1/3 the patients while not having to tow the hospital/CMG line.


You forgot about psych man. The problem with psych for most people is that it's psych. Career wise it's objectively a solid option.
 
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One thing worth considering is that if there ever was a time to move to the middle of BFE to land a high paying job, now would be it. Given everything that's going on, a lot of us are essentially at 3 places - work, home, or the grocery store. Many of us are limiting contact with elderly family members. It's easy to live someplace where there's nothing to do or see, when you won't be doing much else either.
 
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The sky is falling, the sky is falling. Same cry that has been going on in the Anesthesia forms for the last 20 years yet year after year you see salaries go up and no shortage of jobs (both in Anesthesia and EM). Now I remember why I stopped posting here, too many pessimists.

Oddly enough none of our recent graduates had difficulty findings jobs and those who weren't bound to a particular location said SDGs were available. One is doing 13 8/10-hour shifts a month and making $350k+. In the midst of the pandemic. We'll be fine.

I agree that this is just plain ridiculous. If you are comparing to 5-10 yrs ago, yeah it is worse. But you could still find a job at 95% of places pre covid.

EM is not for everyone but I would be confident to say that if you polled EM docs, 99% would not risk randomly going into another field.
 
I agree that this is just plain ridiculous. If you are comparing to 5-10 yrs ago, yeah it is worse. But you could still find a job at 95% of places pre covid.

EM is not for everyone but I would be confident to say that if you polled EM docs, 99% would not risk randomly going into another field.

Are you actively actually looking or just guessing? Because this is just completely untrue.
 
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EM is not for everyone but I would be confident to say that if you polled EM docs, 99% would not risk randomly going into another field.
I wouldn't say I randomly went into another field, but I do know several EM docs actively looking for a way out. You're correct, it's not for everyone. For me, it's that emergency medicine does not equal emergency department medicine. It's a disconnect that became a deal-breaker for me.
 
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The sky is falling, the sky is falling. Same cry that has been going on in the Anesthesia forms for the last 20 years yet year after year you see salaries go up and no shortage of jobs (both in Anesthesia and EM). Now I remember why I stopped posting here, too many pessimists.

Oddly enough none of our recent graduates had difficulty findings jobs and those who weren't bound to a particular location said SDGs were available. One is doing 13 8/10-hour shifts a month and making $350k+. In the midst of the pandemic. We'll be fine.
Come on back when you look for a job and update us.
 
I'm already getting offers around $230-240/hr in cities that I would consider working in as a young single grad (not BFE)
One mans trash may be another mans treasure. I don’t know what part of the country you are in. Also 230-240 that’s decent. What’s the work environment. You gonna be a CMG lemming or life? or Is this is good long term job and you will be a partner making 300+/hr?

not all jobs are the same. Money is but one part of the equation. The big cities are plenty jammed up. ill Define bigger cities as places with an nfl team Green Bay excluded.
 
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If there ARE any recent grads out there in the Pennsylvania area who had their jobs furloughed with COVID, I'd love to hear from them. We've had two recent faculty get ED director jobs in the area and another retire. Not a huge deal in the short term we have the people to cover the shifts, but we'd rather not work overtime longterm, so if there is anyone out there interested in a job at a residency program in a more rural location, even in the short term, DM me and let me know and I can give you the details.
 
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One mans trash may be another mans treasure. I don’t know what part of the country you are in. Also 230-240 that’s decent. What’s the work environment. You gonna be a CMG lemming or life? or Is this is good long term job and you will be a partner making 300+/hr?

not all jobs are the same. Money is but one part of the equation. The big cities are plenty jammed up. ill Define bigger cities as places with an nfl team Green Bay excluded.

Any time I hear "Green Bay" and words like "exclude" it makes me happy
 
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Just how bad is the Arizona job market?
 
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Just how bad is the Arizona job market?
People taking a job with APP at the busiest ED in the phoenix area for $205/hr as an IC. Best paying job I know is fairly crappy and pays $225/hr plus benefits. If I was gonna go back that's what I would do. I know the St Joes group (Empower) has been advertising on FB as they took over some eds i think FSEDs.
 
People taking a job with APP at the busiest ED in the phoenix area for $205/hr as an IC. Best paying job I know is fairly crappy and pays $225/hr plus benefits. If I was gonna go back that's what I would do. I know the St Joes group (Empower) has been advertising on FB as they took over some eds i think FSEDs.

EMPOWER is only hiring for their FSEDs and the pay is under 200/hr from what I've heard.
 
People taking a job with APP at the busiest ED in the phoenix area for $205/hr as an IC. Best paying job I know is fairly crappy and pays $225/hr plus benefits. If I was gonna go back that's what I would do. I know the St Joes group (Empower) has been advertising on FB as they took over some eds i think FSEDs.

That's what you would do? Ughhhh

I have to travel, but you can still find gigs in the Midwest at $275-285 per hour. My friend has a unicorn gig paying $350/hr as a W2, but that's a 1/1,000 job.
 
That's what you would do? Ughhhh

I have to travel, but you can still find gigs in the Midwest at $275-285 per hour. My friend has a unicorn gig paying $350/hr as a W2, but that's a 1/1,000 job.
Locums never appealed to me. I look at the unpaid time with travel and it never made financial sense to me.

Curious where your friend is (what city or state) just curious. There are some good jobs around but they are becoming harder and harder to find. Phoenix went from a ton of SDGs to maybe 2 left.
 
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EMPOWER is only hiring for their FSEDs and the pay is under 200/hr from what I've heard.

This is true. At their main sites (St Joe’s and St Joe’s Westgate) the pay is all RVU and most docs averaged around $185-200/hr pre-COVID and I’m sure it dropped significantly due to low volume.
 
People taking a job with APP at the busiest ED in the phoenix area for $205/hr as an IC. Best paying job I know is fairly crappy and pays $225/hr plus benefits. If I was gonna go back that's what I would do. I know the St Joes group (Empower) has been advertising on FB as they took over some eds i think FSEDs.
Damn sucks. I am from Phoenix, love Phoenix but looks like it’s not the place for EM. Gonna have to do some thinking about future residency choices.
 
Damn sucks. I am from Phoenix, love Phoenix but looks like it’s not the place for EM. Gonna have to do some thinking about future residency choices.
Truly the nation is tough.. there arent a bunch of great options. The options are really hit or miss. Things also change but the one recent constant is the CMG takeover / purchase of SDGs. we can hope that groups will form and have the balls to take back the profession. I am not optimistic but I am hopeful.
 
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