Covid19 - clinical / epidemiological thread

Started by deleted59964
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Looking at the data from the ill-fated cruise ship, 705 positive results out of 3511 passengers so 20% - and that’s on the confines of a Petri dish that is a cruise ship. Extrapolating out to the US population would mean 66 million infected which is hopefully worst case given current social distancing measures and the fact we don’t all live on the same boat.

While I think current precautions are warranted - I remain cautiously optimistic.
People on a cruise vessel are relatively healthy, even if older. Not the most representative sample.

Plus ISOLATION works miracles. There's the PROOF.
 
That’s not remotely true.
Sorry, healthier. I meant compensated, as in ASA2- 3 vs the ASA 4, who will not go on a cruise (unless Royal-ly stupid, pun intended) and who will probably not survive Covid.

How many deaths did they have on those cruise ships?
 
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What are people doing about self-quarantine? This time of year I am almost guaranteed to have a minor sore throat or slight cough that lasts a day or so...especially with a toddler at home. At what point do I self-quarantine? Is a fever the threshold or should I be more cautious? If my toddler develops a cough or fever, do I self-quarantine as well?

We're being told to check our temp twice a day and everything above 100 we need to go home even if we feel fine.
They didn't really give us guidance on anything else, but if I were to start coughing and it's anything more than a tickle/clear my throat type cough then I'd stay home.
I've been sneezing 1-2x per day for the past couple of weeks so I think that's fine (not sure if it's allergies or what) as I feel completely normal and no fever.
 
I don't know enough about PCR (which is what I assume they're using to test?) But, what is the possibility and rate of false positives?

What is the relevance of a positive test in a situation like Donovan Mitchell who got tested because his teammate got diagnosed, he tested positive, and has subsequently had ZERO symptoms, 5 days after the test was performed (which I have seen longer incubation periods, so we'll see if this changes). Is this guy even shedding virus that can be passed to others?

When is this equivalent to the S. aureus on my skin?

Is it possible for the testing to be flawed and spit out a false positive?
 
I don't know enough about PCR (which is what I assume they're using to test?) But, what is the possibility and rate of false positives?

What is the relevance of a positive test in a situation like Donovan Mitchell who got tested because his teammate got diagnosed, he tested positive, and has subsequently had ZERO symptoms, 5 days after the test was performed (which I have seen longer incubation periods, so we'll see if this changes). Is this guy even shedding virus that can be passed to others?

When is this equivalent to the S. aureus on my skin?

Is it possible for the testing to be flawed and spit out a false positive?

Back in mid 2ks PCR for SARS had almost 100% specificity and 90% sensitivity. I expect it’s much the same now..
 
Are they able to check titers to evaluate for immunity or hx of infection?
 
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Yes I know that’s how the test works. I’m wondering if we have capability to check titers yet. That would have significant utility and implications particularly for health care workers taking care of patients.
I doubt they can, because I remember doctors being dumbfounded by patients who become positive again, after having been negative during convalescence.
 
I don't know enough about PCR (which is what I assume they're using to test?) But, what is the possibility and rate of false positives?

What is the relevance of a positive test in a situation like Donovan Mitchell who got tested because his teammate got diagnosed, he tested positive, and has subsequently had ZERO symptoms, 5 days after the test was performed (which I have seen longer incubation periods, so we'll see if this changes). Is this guy even shedding virus that can be passed to others?

When is this equivalent to the S. aureus on my skin?

Is it possible for the testing to be flawed and spit out a false positive?
I'd have to look up the source but specificity was 100% in a report I saw. Sensitivity was unclear.
 
The beginning. It’s incredible how we repeated the Chinese errors just 2-3 months later. “It’s no big deal. We have things under control.”

Look at Holland, the most intelligent European country by a wide margin ( in terms of functioning society) they're not contemplating a shut down and are trying to let the virus run it's course while protecting groups at risk.
 
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What does this mean?
I knew you would ask.
They have the money to pay for all pensions (one of the only country with Norway), have a centralized health care system, some of the worlds greatest and innovative companies, open minded (legalized marijuana) free speach etc... (the USA didn't come from nowhere).
They are closing schools and taking preventive measures but they won't be locking down.
 
Role of ACE2 receptor


I remember reading a recent study where ACEI/ARB had protective effects in sepsis in animals.

Here are some more goodies from the same source:

 
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The beginning. It’s incredible how we repeated the Chinese errors just 2-3 months later. “It’s no big deal. We have things under control.”


I draw very different conclusions from that article.

China has a POS enemy government that deliberately hid from the world how disastrous this virus is.

I'd like to see their economy crippled when this is all over.
 
I draw very different conclusions from that article.

China has a POS enemy government that deliberately hid from the world how disastrous this virus is.

I'd like to see their economy crippled when this is all over.

I agree with your first sentiment. Disagree with the second. Their pain is our pain.
 
I agree with your first sentiment. Disagree with the second. Their pain is our pain.

I won't be so condescending as to say that the Chinese deserve a better government than they have - governments often fit the character of the people they govern, and the Chinese appear to be more or less interested in fairly authoritarian govt.

But as things stand, China's ambitions and priorities are threats to the entire world. They just threatened to withhold delivery of abx to the US, for crying out loud, and their decision to keep Sars-CoV-2 under wraps for months has wreaked unimaginable global havoc.

Their power must be neutralized. I know that I'll be looking for "Made in China" and boycotting any products bearing that phrase.
 
You have no idea what you're talking about. It's not so easy to get rid of a totalitarian or autocratic government. The longer they have been in power, the harder.


Not scientific or empirical, but there are legs to the claim that the current system doesn't exactly have the Chinese gritting their teeth in rage.
 

Not scientific or empirical, but there are legs to the claim that the current system doesn't exactly have the Chinese gritting their teeth in rage.

That's a poor resource

Also can we get back to clinical discussions?
 


On March 13th, 2020, Himalaya Capital's founder, Li Lu, organized and hosted a panel of experts leading the fight against COVID-19. Critical insights were shared from the front line of China's fight against COVID-19, such as ICU lessons, the protocols put in place and the treatment methodologies and practices used to stem the spread of the virus.

Panel speakers were, in order;
Dr. Peng, the director of ICU of Wuhan University Zhongnan Hospital in Wuhan
Dr. Cao, the vice-president of China-Japan Friendship Hospital, author of China’s Guideline of Diagnosis and Treatment of COVID-19
Dr. Zhang, head of infectious disease at Fudan University Huashan Hospital in Shanghai
 
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Is anyone here in NYC? How are things looking there? There is talk about a naval hospital ship being dispatched to New York Harbor.
 
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