Are you seriously claiming that you're not personally biased against for-profit institutions after labeling CNUCOM a "canary in the coal mine"?
I was biased against for-profit institutions well before making that analogy. The history of for-profit education in America is teeming with predation. And there is nothing inherently wrong with biases, so long as they do not substantially cloud our judgement. I have been skeptical of CNU since I first heard of it, but I am prepared to change my mind if the evidence says otherwise.
Osminog said:
Also, if an experiment is "messy" and "imperfect" (which is an understatement when we're only talking about a single inaugural match list), then why not abstain from "generating interpretations"? Why not wait until better data come in?
The same reason that NASA doesn't wait until its Martian rovers die before analyzing the data. We have been waiting years for the first CNU match list, and now that it's finally out some of us would like to discuss it. All experiments involving human behavior are inherently messy and imperfect, but that should not stop us from trying to draw conclusions.
Osminog said:
Why not consider the fact that, in the osteopathic world, RVUCOM has become one of the most successful DO schools in terms of student outcomes? Sure, RVUCOM is a DO school so it's not a perfect example when discussing for-profit MDs, but its situation over the past decade offers us far more data than one inaugural match list from one for-profit allopathic institution.
It is indeed tempting to invoke RVU, but I have a couple of issues with that approach. Foremost, osteopathic accreditation is very different than allopathic accreditation, and some not-for-profit osteopathic schools already bear a strong resemblance to for-profit models: large classes, high tuition, few faculty, minimal clinical education infrastructure, etc. Much to COCA's chagrin, RVU ended up being not much of an outlier. But perhaps futher discussion of RVU, the Tiens, Medforth, etc. is best left for a different thread.
Osminog said:
Lastly, CNUCOM's match list isn't actually bad. It's not terribly different from the match lists of most other low-tier MD programs.
It is difficult for me to judge matches that aren't in my speciality, so I have to rely on two other markers: competitive specialty matches and prelim matches. There was one competitive speciality match: ENT, which isn't very telling. Again, if 6+ people matched into competitive specialities, the naysayers would have to eat some crow, but the actual outcome is ambiguous.
The prelim matches are more concerning. Bearing in mind the input from
@carpeomnious and the fact that we will likely not find out anything official about the SOAP, I count a total of eleven prelim matches. That's over 18% of the starting class, which is a rather high number.
My take is that this match list has few matches in highly competitive fields, some good matches in low to moderately competitive fields, and a relatively high proportion of prelim matches. For a class with an average MCAT of 32.2 and average Step 1 of 228, my opinion is that the school underperformed.
I hope you would agree that I am not being a jerk about this, it's just my take on the situation.