Lurking Beloww: Sea Monsters Sign Ups and Game Thread

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Also, this was the other axolotl picture I was considering.

axolotl2.PNG
 
OK, and this game basically supports why I don't like to use VCA of where people were on wolves that went down, because I used that to clear Skimble.

Was it great that is got me to focus less on AM and Pippy? Sure. And it did push me onto Stagg more. But the fact that I otherwise would have remained suspicious of Skimble were it not for VCA, just, grr. No more.
 
Crayola227 said:
OK, and this game basically supports why I don't like to use VCA of where people were on wolves that went down, because I used that to clear Skimble.

Was it great that is got me to focus less on AM and Pippy? Sure. And it did push me onto Stagg more. But the fact that I otherwise would have remained suspicious of Skimble were it not for VCA, just, grr. No more.
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Well, if you used it to clear her based on the SAR vote, that was fair, because she was still village then lol
 
My personal lessons from this game which people may not agree:

1) Post analysis and feels are better than you think they are.

2) D1 DOES contain clues - they may be clear as early as when they happen, or in hindsight. Villager and wolves alike should take what they do somewhat seriously as it sets the stage later for successful- or mis- lynches.

3) VCA can be useful but it is one tool. Never put anything past the wolves.

4) Bussing in any shape or form is possible.

5) Conversion is always possible. Reconsider your wolf/null/villager piles daily. This doesn't mean you have to get convert hunt fever.

6) Be very careful with "There's no way they're a wolf because...." statements. That is all.

7) Be very careful of PMs. Sharing and pocketing.

8) "Too village to be true" is actually a thing. I could write more on what that might look like, but won't for now.
 
Btw @Crayola227 I really didn't mean to insult you!! I felt like you were disconnected, and the last time I saw you wolf, you were also very busy, and I remember you being sad because you didn't have a ton of time. So, I oversimplified what I was seeing. Sorry about that :-/
 
Crayola227 said:
2) D1 DOES contain clues - they may be clear as early as when they happen, or in hindsight. Villager and wolves alike should take what they do somewhat seriously as it sets the stage later for successful- or mis- lynches.

3) VCA can be useful but it is one tool. Never put anything past the wolves.
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I also caught SAR based off her first post. I thought it was interesting that you also picked up on it.

I would have caught stagg on vote analysis, but I was converted and had to back track on that a little. I think converts change all the rules. I've caught plenty of wolves due to careful vote analysis.
 
PippyPony said:
Btw @Crayola227 I really didn't mean to insult you!! I felt like you were disconnected, and the last time I saw you wolf, you were also very busy, and I remember you being sad because you didn't have a ton of time. So, I oversimplified what I was seeing. Sorry about that :-/
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No worries, lol. Your reasoning all around was right on, just the part where I would not check my PMs first... I was worried you were a wolf and stretching things a bit...

and really, it is because of LIS and Rojo that I'm pretty on top of my PMs no matter how busy or checked out I am. Some days I've only looked at mod PM or wolf chat, not even the thread. Because I'm not going to miss what's there. That's one way to know if you have to get your butt on thread. Same with "mentions" in my alerts.
 
Skimble said:
I also caught SAR based off her first post. I thought it was interesting that you also picked up on it.

I would have caught stagg on vote analysis, but I was converted and had to back track on that a little. I think converts change all the rules. I've caught plenty of wolves due to careful vote analysis.
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Definitely, and realistically it's converts that I think do the most to make VCA an unreliable way to clear someone. Which isn't the same as catching a wolf with it (if that makes sense.... a wolfy voting history is a wolfy voting history, but a really solid one you can throw out the window if they are converted...)

Honestly I owe a lot to this game and @Animal Midwife the most for advancing what little VCA skills I am trying to develop. As much as I find it a PITA.
 
Skimble said:
So what you are saying is, I still haven’t ever been intentionally converted? :laugh: One day someone will want me! (Just not any time soon please!)
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I got you. Next time I wolf you're mine!

WildZoo said:
I think instead of having spectators and dead participate, they should have voted on the submissions 😀
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We still would have won. How can you not pick a manatee???

Crayola227 said:
5) Conversion is always possible. Reconsider your wolf/null/villager piles daily. This doesn't mean you have to get convert hunt fever.

6) Be very careful with "There's no way they're a wolf because...." statements. That is all.
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Two rules I learned very early in Colorado from Mel. Totally missed the convert clue and everyone said "no way Mel is a wolf, he's already been hard cleared!" Which I took to heart and shouldn't have because he was the convert and pocketed me ridiculously hard in PMs. So much so that I probably ended up costing village the game by convincing them SAR was logistically the only wolf option left.
 
SARdoghandler said:
I really love how everyone feels my first post was off. I formulated it before I checked my role pm. So it literally is exactly what I would write as a villager.

But then I'm always sketchy d1 so apparently it's just a thing I do haha :whistle:
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I thought it was fine hahahahaha
 
SARdoghandler said:
Elect pippy

Because she was the first self nom after allie and I'd feel bad voting for allie if it did turn out to be tie breaking haha
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SARdoghandler said:
I think I've played exactly one mayor game before, maybe. No clue on the etiquette and others seemed to be justifying so
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Firat day. Were they both before you knew you were wolf?

I can break down what in the tone raised my eyebrow. I feel good saying there are present in the tone legit wolfy elements, but if you didn't know you were wolf at the time, then no, it's not good evidence despite the fact that analyzing it and finding it wolfy is legit, I think.

SARdoghandler said:
As usual, I go to eat dinner and come back to a **** show.

I see your role reveal and raise you mine.

I am the hydra. When I die someone will be random rezzed. Sounds great, except it doesn't say what affiliation the rezz-e will come back as and the mods say that they cannot answer that question.

So I mean, I'm not the worst lynch because someone will come back. But if we can nab a wolf that's better.
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However, the above reaction to the lynch is what sealed it for me.

I think this maybe illustrates that more important than what makes you suspicious, is seeing how people respond to your suspicions later.

That was quite literally the only thing that got me suspecting Stagg.
 
Crayola227 said:
Firat day. Were they both before you knew you were wolf?

I can break down what in the tone raised my eyebrow. I feel good saying there are present in the tone legit wolfy elements, but if you didn't know you were wolf at the time, then no, it's not good evidence despite the fact that analyzing it and finding it wolfy is legit, I think.



However, the above reaction to the lynch is what sealed it for me.

I think this maybe illustrates that more important than what makes you suspicious, is seeing how people respond to your suspicions later.

That was quite literally the only thing that got me suspecting Stagg.
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First one was drafted before I knew I was a wolf, but posted after (no changes made though). Second post was after I knew I was a wolf and had participated in wolf chat. If you want to let me know what pinged you, I'd be forever grateful! I'm a terrible wolf but I'd like to be a less sketchy villager on d1s haha.

As for the last post, I pretty well knew I was going down, wolves were ok with it (Stagg decided to bus me on basically d1 haha) and it was a hail mary so I'm not surprised it reads wolfy af haha
 
The first one, could be said to be "overjustifying" and genny called you out on it. Yeah, you can't win because everything is either "overjustified" or "you didn't give a decent reason," but still, it's a criticism that *can* be made here.

You're choosing to vote Pippy over Allie despite the same behavior between the two, when it's questionable if you are indeed "saving" Allie from a possible role she doesn't want. So that could read like inconsistency for the purpose of buddying up/trying not to make enemies.

Inconsistency (and there's a special sort of villager inconsistency that doesn't count here) is the #1 sign of lycanthropy. To pull that and it seems to fit an agenda that is more interpersonal than wolf-hunting in nature, is a sure sinker.

The last bit, the "haha", punctuation-wise is quite literally tacked on, which gives it a feeling of being tacked on and not sincere, and *that* definitely can be a sign of lycanthropy.

I know it seems like BS to think that punctuation and such can get you lynched, but it can. Poor @SoFloGryffindor can attest to that!!!!! OTOH, wolves can be caught by a tone of insincerity so any sign of it is looked for. This is why I find smilies and other emotional expressions to be so troublesome. "**** we lynched the seer!" or 🙂 just opens you up to too much scrutiny.

The next one commits 2 sins in one: appeal to noobiness AND appeal to "everyone else is doing it." Both of which can be totally true, but almost always reads wolfy. The latter more than the former. Wolves are ALWAYS trying to blend in, so anything that basically flat out says "I'm trying to blend in," despite the fact villagers say/do this all the time, is going to bring up major feels.

It *also* has a feel of trailing off the last post had with "so." Both that and the "haha" are defensive notes to end your posts on. That doesn't mean you were defensive, but they can sound insincere/defensive and both never look good.

I can tackle the next one but it's its own discussion.

Keep in mind, these are just my thoughts on the subtleties of the emotional things that take place during WW, and my own personal thoughts. Everyone else is going to read all of this and have their own conclusions.
 
Crayola227 said:
The first one, could be said to be "overjustifying" and genny called you out on it. Yeah, you can't win because everything is either "overjustified" or "you didn't give a decent reason," but still, it's a criticism that *can* be made here.

You're choosing to vote Pippy over Allie despite the same behavior between the two, when it's questionable if you are indeed "saving" Allie from a possible role she doesn't want. So that could read like inconsistency for the purpose of buddying up/trying not to make enemies.

Inconsistency (and there's a special sort of villager inconsistency that doesn't count here) is the #1 sign of lycanthropy. To pull that and it seems to fit an agenda that is more interpersonal than wolf-hunting in nature, is a sure sinker.

The last bit, the "haha", punctuation-wise is quite literally tacked on, which gives it a feeling of being tacked on and not sincere, and *that* definitely can be a sign of lycanthropy.

I know it seems like BS to think that punctuation and such can get you lynched, but it can. Poor @SoFloGryffindor can attest to that!!!!! OTOH, wolves can be caught by a tone of insincerity so any sign of it is looked for. This is why I find smilies and other emotional expressions to be so troublesome. "**** we lynched the seer!" or 🙂 just opens you up to too much scrutiny.

The next one commits 2 sins in one: appeal to noobiness AND appeal to "everyone else is doing it." Both of which can be totally true, but almost always reads wolfy. The latter more than the former. Wolves are ALWAYS trying to blend in, so anything that basically flat out says "I'm trying to blend in," despite the fact villagers say/do this all the time, is going to bring up major feels.

It *also* has a feel of trailing off the last post had with "so." Both that and the "haha" are defensive notes to end your posts on. That doesn't mean you were defensive, but they can sound insincere/defensive and both never look good.

I can tackle the next one but it's its own discussion.

Keep in mind, these are just my thoughts on the subtleties of the emotional things that take place during WW, and my own personal thoughts. Everyone else is going to read all of this and have their own conclusions.
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Thanks! Super useful and something for me to think about. I do the "trying not to make enemies" and tacking things on to my sentences regularly (in my head it softens them or something) so it may not change, but at least I can do it a bit more thoughtfully. Thanks, Cray
 
Keep in mind you're not doing anything wrong, and any one of my posts could be analyzed and found exceedingly wolfy. That's just the nature of it. I'm always trying to think more and more about this kind of thing. It's probably like reading tea leaves in terms of accuracy but the point is to feel like it works, not that it actually does. 😵

WW is exceptionally well designed for confirmation bias, and the statistics of most games towards village wins (notice I say *most* games), also with its typical w:v ratio, makes it so it's relatively easy to go along feeling like an amazing/crappy wolf hunter just based on whatever you believe. And that's OK!

The way I see it, my WW theory is about as efficacious as coconut water for cancer, except that in WW, I can believe whatever I want and be happy about it, and it won't matter it doesn't really work because in WW when I die I'm not really dead, unlike coconut water for cancer. So ignorance can be bliss if you so wish it.
 
Stagg737 said:
Well you needed to TALK LOUDER that game. I was PM'ing you and you still didn't convince me to vote Mel instead of SAR!
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:slap: I told you guys not to lynch sporty and laid out why Mel was a good convert option that day.

Then you died. And I made the correct decision to look into your stuff on SAR more closely instead of relfex lynching her.

And then I kept my vote on cheezit the next day but nobody listened. And then I died. So. Not my fault 😛
 
WildZoo said:
And then that weird resurrection event happened and I forgot the rest of everything lol
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Yea, like I said. I take full responsibility for losing village that one. Although it was my first game ever and village kept listening to me for some reason. So I'm only going to take 95% responsibility for that one, lol.
 
Stagg737 said:
Yea, like I said. I take full responsibility for losing village that one. Although it was my first game ever and village kept listening to me for some reason. So I'm only going to take 95% responsibility for that one, lol.
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Ha, I forgot that was your first game. It's ok, you weren't even alive anymore at LyLo.

kcoughli said:
Hey I had a village reason for every person I targeted. That **** was intentional
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And you might have gotten away with it too, if you had just posted on thread instead of "revealing" to Skim 😉
 
WildZoo said:
Ha, I forgot that was your first game. It's ok, you weren't even alive anymore at LyLo.


And you might have gotten away with it too, if you had just posted on thread instead of "revealing" to Skim 😉
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Also wasn't lying about the rest. Was on the plane, actually didn't even have time to "reveal" to skim but she was in wolf chat at that point so she had the info. I still would have done the same as villager honestly. Revealing to one person who is sounding villager when you don't think you're going to be the top lynch suspect just made sense. Had no incentive to reveal to the entire thread, especially with a suspicious role/ability. Honestly I stand by most of my moves this game.
 
kcoughli said:
Also wasn't lying about the rest. Was on the plane, actually didn't even have time to "reveal" to skim but she was in wolf chat at that point so she had the info. I still would have done the same as villager honestly. Revealing to one person who is sounding villager when you don't think you're going to be the top lynch suspect just made sense. Had no incentive to reveal to the entire thread, especially with a suspicious role/ability. Honestly I stand by most of my moves this game.
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Revealing to one person never makes sense to me unless I have mod-given info that they're village lol Actually interesting there though, if I had thought through that more (questioning why you had time to reveal to skim and not say more on thread, or why you chose her over your other PM partner - not sure who that was), it could have put skim in a really tough spot. Alas, I didn't think about it, perhaps because she ended up bussing you.
 
WildZoo said:
Revealing to one person never makes sense to me unless I have mod-given info that they're village lol Actually interesting there though, if I had thought through that more (questioning why you had time to reveal to skim and not say more on thread, or why you chose her over your other PM partner - not sure who that was), it could have put skim in a really tough spot. Alas, I didn't think about it, perhaps because she ended up bussing you.
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My other PM partner was Stagg... Yes both were wolves at the end of the game so no pocketing villagers for meeeee. Also I would have picked skim over stagg anyway because honestly dont think I've played with stagg much before so would naturally chat with skim more.
 
I also really honestly didn't believe my vote would catch on. Literally the biggest justifications for it was Pippy calling out things I did that basically was mirroring her own actions. And you with "feels" which aren't anything anyone can defend against. I just assumed it would swing elsewhere.
 
kcoughli said:
My other PM partner was Stagg... Yes both were wolves at the end of the game so no pocketing villagers for meeeee. Also I would have picked skim over stagg anyway because honestly dont think I've played with stagg much before so would naturally chat with skim more.
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Oh god, that's hilarious :laugh:
 
kcoughli said:
I also really honestly didn't believe my vote would catch on. Literally the biggest justifications for it was Pippy calling out things I did that basically was mirroring her own actions. And you with "feels" which aren't anything anyone can defend against. I just assumed it would swing elsewhere.
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To be fair, it might have if your wolfy crew hadn't decided to push it. I think you only ended up with 4 votes.
I didn't really have much I could concretely point to until that whole thing went down, even though I wasn't budging from the vote. Even now I'm not sure what it was that set off my wolfdar, but that's usually how it goes when I actually find a wolf. Those cases that I have a bunch of solid analysis for tend to be wrong.
 
kcoughli said:
I also really honestly didn't believe my vote would catch on. Literally the biggest justifications for it was Pippy calling out things I did that basically was mirroring her own actions. And you with "feels" which aren't anything anyone can defend against. I just assumed it would swing elsewhere.
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Yeah maybe, but I maintain you were doing the same things, just sketchier 😛
 
WildZoo said:
Revealing to one person never makes sense to me unless I have mod-given info that they're village lol Actually interesting there though, if I had thought through that more (questioning why you had time to reveal to skim and not say more on thread, or why you chose her over your other PM partner - not sure who that was), it could have put skim in a really tough spot. Alas, I didn't think about it, perhaps because she ended up bussing you.
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I didn't follow the specifics of this. Interestingly enough I know there are gambits that people do involving PM'ing and reveals, but it seems the consensus is that they're tricky and can easily backfire. Next level maneuver.
 
can someone explain this magical process they are using called POE?

is it an actual technique I can learn, or is it just a general term for whatever people are using to clear/suspect people?

Is it like an umbrella term for any number of strategies, like one being the VCA this game, or something more specific?
 
Crayola227 said:
can someone explain this magical process they are using called POE?

is it an actual technique I can learn, or is it just a general term for whatever people are using to clear/suspect people?

Is it like an umbrella term for any number of strategies, like one being the VCA this game, or something more specific?
Click to expand...

It's just a matter of working to figure out who the villagers are rather than the wolves so you have a pool of non-cleared players to focus on.

Occasionally used on a higher level to figure out who might have a specific ability based on who can't have it.

There isn't one specific way to go about doing it though.
 
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