Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

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stillpremed said:
UNH needs to close multiple weeks over 298 for strength

I used to do this: “ let me buy a stock that’s down 30% because I’m getting it at a discount! If I buy a strong stock, I may buy the top and then the bear market will wipe me out.”

Now I do: “ let me buy a stock that has amazing strength because I know the market is ripping with a lot of momentum and I’m capitalizing on strength. A weak stock may suck up my capital for the next 3 to 12 months - by that time the bull market may be over.”
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UNH needs to close above 269 for multiple weeks else we gravitate towards 243 and if that fails then 225 and then 215
 
Losing position with ATYR. I was up significantly, maybe 20% and against my better judgement decided to not sell and to in fact hold the position. Then I doubled down. Then Shkreli used his social media to get people to short the stock and now I'm down 10% It's honestly something I would have done in my rookie days. I've got a stop loss that hasn't triggered but it was just such a dumb trade and I had so many other better potentials. Now I remember why I hate biotech. Greed brings out my stupid.
 
Groove said:
Losing position with ATYR. I was up significantly, maybe 20% and against my better judgement decided to not sell and to in fact hold the position. Then I doubled down. Then Shkreli used his social media to get people to short the stock and now I'm down 10% It's honestly something I would have done in my rookie days. I've got a stop loss that hasn't triggered but it was just such a dumb trade and I had so many other better potentials. Now I remember why I hate biotech. Greed brings out my stupid.
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Don't be too harsh on yourself.

Yesterday I woke up in Panama city beach while enjoying a vacation, looked at my brokerage account and saw that I was 78% up in SOFI (78k profit) after they announced their earning. The stock went down today after they announced they are selling more shares for 1.5 billion. It's impossible to time that market.
 
stillpremed said:
UNH needs to close above 269 for multiple weeks else we gravitate towards 243 and if that fails then 225 and then 215
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Why would it go down to 215. They have a historical PE (TTM) average of 22. Over the past 10 years the minimum has 15, the max was 37.

Right now TTM PE is 11.

There needs to be a major catalyst for it to go to 215...which would give it a PE of 8.

More realistically we should look at future earnings. They are estimating "at least" 16 EPS for this year. Already have first two quarters in. So if they hit the target of 16, then their current forward PE is 16. If they have an EPS of 18...then their PE is 14.

They historically have PE anywhere from 20 - 35.

People need a little bit of patience with this company (and other ones in the space). Its not going to 350 this month. As I've said before the only real substantive risks to keep an eye out for this company are 1) booking fraud i.e Enron style, 2) huge lawsuits from the government, and 3) a meaningful change in how all of health care is delivered in the US.

I don't think #1 exists.
The majority of #2 is already priced in. The way all these things work out too is if they are found guilty 4-5 years later, they will pay a fine of several billion dollars. The moment that is announced, the stock will go UP.
For #3, there is just a very low chance of anything major to occur with. There will be a hundred billion cut here and there, but we would need something like a single payer system to completely disrupt the health care industry.
 
I love playing options. Made me a millionaire at age 34. Bought these last week and sold 3 days ago. Just put 500k again in AMD and 400k in SMCI for November call options yesterday 7/30. Lets see how much they pay given the overnight movement.

Its kinda sad many of my colleagues who are physicians are very risk averse and rather be wage slaves for an extra 10 years. Can't be me in this bull market.

I never buy Service industry, Fast food, healthcare, pharma or biotech stocks. Technology, and AI stocks is where the growth is at. Follow the money. Its easy.

Good stocks to invest in: SMCI, AMD, NVIDIA, TSSI, TSM, META, META. Hood and SOFi were good but they ran up too much before earnings imo.
 

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thegenius said:
I generally agree with all the AAPL comments above.

Therefore, I bought 5x Sept 220c. 🤣

AAPL has a chart that is primed to go higher. Regardless of the fundamentals.
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Apple will remain flat or go down. Investors look to see if the company will innovate or have strong growth. Apple is stagnate at this point.
 
twospadz said:
I love playing options. Made me a millionaire at age 34. Bought these last week and sold 3 days ago. Just put 500k again in AMD and 400k in SMCI for November call options yesterday 7/30. Lets see how much they pay given the overnight movement.

Its kinda sad many of my colleagues who are physicians are very risk averse and rather be wage slaves for an extra 10 years. Can't be me in this bull market.

I never buy Service industry, Fast food, healthcare, pharma or biotech stocks. Technology, and AI stocks is where the growth is at. Follow the money. Its easy.

Good stocks to invest in: SMCI, AMD, NVIDIA, TSSI, TSM, META, META. Hood and SOFi were good but they ran up too much before earnings imo.
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I am risk averse; however, I wish I understood option trading. Would not mind putting aside 5-7% of my brokerage account just to trade options

Can't wait for that day when I don't have to work because I need the money.
 
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Splenda88 said:
I am risk averse; however, I wish I understood option trading. Would not sign putting aside 5-7% of my brokerage account just to trade options

Can't wait for that day when I don't have to work because I need the money.
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It’s relatively easy. Buy contracts that are a couple months out and call options on a stock with momentum and good fundamentals like a tech or semiconductor stock. Instead of a 5% gain from the stock, the contract option will go up by 40%. It can work the opposite way for a loss. However, just buy long dated contracts so it has time to swing in your favor (3 month to 1 year).
 
TooMuchResearch said:
How much pl did you buy? I also have an allocation. I had a lot of rklb but sold off and now have some rklb.
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I didn’t play open but bought GoPro call options then sold them the next day for 150% gain. Put 10k and went up to 24k.

It’s wild that I bought kohl options 1 month before the meme crazy for 20k. I got tired of waiting for the short squeeze. Would have been 1 million if I held smh
 

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twospadz said:
I didn’t play open but bought GoPro call options then sold them the next day for 150% gain. Put 10k and went up to 24k.

It’s wild that I bought kohl options 1 month before the meme crazy for 20k. I got tired of waiting for the short squeeze. Would have been 1 million if I held smh
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What's your YTD return doing options?
 
twospadz said:
It’s relatively easy. Buy contracts that are a couple months out and call options on a stock with momentum and good fundamentals like a tech or semiconductor stock. Instead of a 5% gain from the stock, the contract option will go up by 40%. It can work the opposite way for a loss. However, just buy long dated contracts so it has time to swing in your favor (3 month to 1 year).
Click to expand...

How are you determining position sizing? Are you doing calculations like break even point and watching Greeks and implied volatility or are you just going by feels? And what is your CAGR from options?

And if you’re heavy tech, were you getting killed earlier this year?
 
thegenius said:
Why would it go down to 215. They have a historical PE (TTM) average of 22. Over the past 10 years the minimum has 15, the max was 37.

Right now TTM PE is 11.

There needs to be a major catalyst for it to go to 215...which would give it a PE of 8.

More realistically we should look at future earnings. They are estimating "at least" 16 EPS for this year. Already have first two quarters in. So if they hit the target of 16, then their current forward PE is 16. If they have an EPS of 18...then their PE is 14.

They historically have PE anywhere from 20 - 35.

People need a little bit of patience with this company (and other ones in the space). Its not going to 350 this month. As I've said before the only real substantive risks to keep an eye out for this company are 1) booking fraud i.e Enron style, 2) huge lawsuits from the government, and 3) a meaningful change in how all of health care is delivered in the US.

I don't think #1 exists.
The majority of #2 is already priced in. The way all these things work out too is if they are found guilty 4-5 years later, they will pay a fine of several billion dollars. The moment that is announced, the stock will go UP.
For #3, there is just a very low chance of anything major to occur with. There will be a hundred billion cut here and there, but we would need something like a single payer system to completely disrupt the health care industry.
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This is going to be utterly controversial AND unbelievable as I used to be a FA guy 100 percent…. Until I realized that none of that mattered and that’s the biggest reason why I wasn’t making money. Fundamentals don’t matter much as long as there is no fraud and company’s not going bankrupt. The story is in the technical analysis. Hold 225 and we don’t go to 215.

It’s like saying “why did UNH go from 630 to 255 and why is it dropping 1-3 percent a day relentlessly even though it’s TTM PE at an all time low at 11 despite XYZ fundamentals?”

It’s charts are so dang bearish and it’s telling us all we need to know about where the stock is going which is down IMO
 
twospadz said:
I love playing options. Made me a millionaire at age 34. Bought these last week and sold 3 days ago. Just put 500k again in AMD and 400k in SMCI for November call options yesterday 7/30. Lets see how much they pay given the overnight movement.

Its kinda sad many of my colleagues who are physicians are very risk averse and rather be wage slaves for an extra 10 years. Can't be me in this bull market.

I never buy Service industry, Fast food, healthcare, pharma or biotech stocks. Technology, and AI stocks is where the growth is at. Follow the money. Its easy.

Good stocks to invest in: SMCI, AMD, NVIDIA, TSSI, TSM, META, META. Hood and SOFi were good but they ran up too much before earnings imo.
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Tremendous!!
 
Splenda88 said:
I am risk averse; however, I wish I understood option trading. Would not mind putting aside 5-7% of my brokerage account just to trade options

Can't wait for that day when I don't have to work because I need the money.
Click to expand...
50 percent NW into BTC (as long as you buy within 30% of the bottom and sell within 30% of the top things that we don’t know until we retrospectively look at it) adds an extra zero to your NW every four years

And if that’s too “risky” then the gains won’t be there, you will quickly figure it out once you dip into the BTC world if that’s for you or not.

We are near the cycle top not the bottom so November 2026 I think will be an excellent time for me to get back in after I sell my stocks Q4 2025
 
stillpremed said:
50 percent NW into BTC (as long as you buy within 30% of the bottom and sell within 30% of the top things that we don’t know until we retrospectively look at it) adds an extra zero to your NW every four years

And if that’s too “risky” then the gains won’t be there, you will quickly figure it out once you dip into the BTC world if that’s for you or not.

We are near the cycle top not the bottom so November 2026 I think will be an excellent time for me to get back in after I sell my stocks Q4 2025
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It's very risky to have that much into BTC if you have a high NW (>1M)
 
Splenda88 said:
It's very risky to have that much into BTC if you have a high NW (>1M)
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Been doing it since 2018 and sleep like a doll. To each his own, works great for me.

2017: 50 percent
2018/2019: 95 percent
2022/2023: 99 percent (sold some in 2025 to buy a house in cash)

I will continue this for 2026. To me, it’s risky to not own BTC.
 
stillpremed said:
50 percent NW into BTC (as long as you buy within 30% of the bottom and sell within 30% of the top things that we don’t know until we retrospectively look at it) adds an extra zero to your NW every four years

And if that’s too “risky” then the gains won’t be there, you will quickly figure it out once you dip into the BTC world if that’s for you or not.

We are near the cycle top not the bottom so November 2026 I think will be an excellent time for me to get back in after I sell my stocks Q4 2025
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I have never sold a single satoshi, and never will for the next 12 years. Stack sats, stay humble, stick to the plan.
 
Option fan bois, can you comment on AI answer to my question?

—-

Question: so which outperforms over 5 years or more: options trading or indexing in S&P 500?

Answer:
Over periods of 5 years or more, S&P 500 indexing has reliably outperformed most options trading strategies—especially those that attempt to generate long-term leverage or speculate on direction—when considering return, risk, and consistency.


Key context and evidence:

  • The S&P 500 index delivered an average annual return of about 13.6% (2019–2024) and roughly 10–11% annualized across various multi-year periods before inflation. This performance compounds reliably over long-term horizons.
  • Conservative option strategies (like covered calls and put-writing) may produce comparable or even slightly higher risk-adjusted returns versus the S&P 500, but with reduced volatility—these do not produce leveraged returns and mainly reduce risk or enhance income. Over 5+ years, they rarely beat the S&P 500 in absolute (total) returns and instead provide smoother return patterns.
  • Aggressive leveraged options trading(such as buying calls to mirror or amplify index returns) almost always underperforms indexing over 5+ years for retail investors. This is due to:
    • Option decay (theta), where calls/long-dated options lose value over time if the market does not move sharply up.
    • Transaction costs and imperfect execution.
    • Volatility drag: Although leveraged products may outperform during sustained bull runs, frequent rebalancing and compounding of volatility erode gains over multi-year horizons.
  • There is no academic evidence or industry study demonstrating that option trading strategies outperform the S&P 500 index on an absolute or risk-adjusted basis over long periods(5+ years) except in the context of income-focused, risk-reducing strategies—never for leveraged or speculative trading.
In conclusion: Indexing in the S&P 500 outperforms option trading strategies, especially leveraged options, over periods of 5 years or more for the vast majority of investors. Option strategies may reduce risk or match returns with less volatility but do not consistently beat indexing in total performance over long horizons.


No evidence exists of systematic outperformance by options trading compared to simple S&P 500 indexing over 5-year periods or longer.

—-

If that is the case, why engage in options with all the headwinds: more time spent managing the trades, option fees, theta decay, higher taxes for those with realized gains, tax complexity (e.g. trying to meet safe harbor).
 
AD04 said:
Option fan bois, can you comment on AI answer to my question?
Click to expand...

Let me start.

The way you asked this question tells me everything about how you don't understand the question you asked, and likely have an extremely rudimentary understanding of the options.

Options aren't a "stock" to invest in, and there are an INFINITE amount of ways to use options to make money in any given market, using any given underlying, at any given time.

Your question is like asking "which one is better, chinese food or japanese food?"
 
HemorrhagicShock said:
Let me start.

The way you asked this question tells me everything about how you don't understand the question you asked, and likely have an extremely rudimentary understanding of the options.

Options aren't a "stock" to invest in, and there are an INFINITE amount of ways to use options to make money in any given market, using any given underlying, at any given time.

Your question is like asking "which one is better, chinese food or japanese food?"
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I have made clear multiple times in this thread that I do NOT understand options at all. Hence, I don't even try to dabble into that world.

I don't even know how to put an option order. I don't even activate that 'option' in my Fidelity.
 
Splenda88 said:
I have made clear multiple times in this thread that I do NOT understand options at all. Hence, I don't even try to dabble into that world.

I don't even know how to put an option order. I don't even activate that 'option' in my Fidelity.
Click to expand...

You don't have to; it's not required knowledge by any means.

This is why the advice of "DCA into index ETFs" is the best approach for 99% of people who are interested in allocating to US equities.

I would never recommend options to anybody as a way to make money or invest more wisely or hedge positions or make income off a large stock portfolio etc etc. I think it's too hard and too complicated for most people.

However, I will 100% attack the idea that you can't beat the market with options. It's simply not true, many in this VERY THREAD are doing exactly that.
 
HemorrhagicShock said:
Let me start.

The way you asked this question tells me everything about how you don't understand the question you asked, and likely have an extremely rudimentary understanding of the options.

Options aren't a "stock" to invest in, and there are an INFINITE amount of ways to use options to make money in any given market, using any given underlying, at any given time.

Your question is like asking "which one is better, chinese food or japanese food?"
Click to expand...

So you didn’t address the headwinds for options trading. So explain to me in rudimentary terms why options given the headwinds? Maybe I know more than you think and maybe I’m outperforming you.

Do you think buying calls of NVDA and outperforming S&P 500 is from your options trading skills over stock picking skills?

What has been your after-tax CAGR with options and how does it compare to buy and hold of the same underlying asset
 
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