Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

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You must have a fancy lifestyle.

I am thinking 3M plus a paid off home would be more than enough for me.
If my underlying balance goes down, I will get paranoid and immediately return to work unless the number is 100x what I need

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If my underlying balance goes down, I will get paranoid and immediately return to work unless the number is 100x what I need

It's super important to have an airtight plan once you decide to disconnect (even temporarily) from clinical work

I really ran every single scenario I could before I pulled the trigger

Knowing my own personal psychology I wanted to make sure that I have the next two years worth of expenses in low vol assets and fixed income, while the rest is aggressively still invested (as I've mentioned earlier in the thread)
 
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It's super important to have an airtight plan once you decide to disconnect (even temporarily) from clinical work

I really ran every single scenario I could before I pulled the trigger

Knowing my own personal psychology I wanted to make sure that I have the next two years worth of expenses in low vol assets and fixed income, while the rest is aggressively still invested (as I've mentioned earlier in the thread)
You copied my plan. Lol
 
You will NEVER call it a day then.
I..know.
platoon_3.jpg
 
You copied my plan. Lol
I have a whole excel file with all the permutations on 8 different sheets

I have a tiered approach to how to keep a 2 year runway of expenses continuously saved up in those low vol/fixed-income assets, and so at every point over the foreseeable future the next two years will be "locked in" as long as I don't do something colossally stupid with my expenses.

What this allows me to do as well is look into other opportunities because I do like being a physician, using my skills, getting to know my patients, but it's abundantly clear the market doesn't value them much.

Urgent cares around me don't want to hire MDs. I figured I could do that maybe 1-2 days a week just for fun, but no dice. I've literally tried about 15 of them, including some with personal connections I have with PAs who've left my ED and now work in the environments.

I am honestly and almost disappointingly considering just starting a concierge practice doing the HRT, weight loss, whatever, and gradually building up a patient panel that way. Still, I've now met enough MDs who've tried this and failed in my area, that I think it's a non-viable solution either.

Oh well, I guess I'll go back to eating good food and playing video games.

What a waste of a degree!
 
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I’ve had a terrible 1 week.

Down 40k from all time highs.

Making me think of just going into sp500 and calling it a day 😂😂😂😂
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Yeah, but the entire market is down 5% this week. Everybody is hurting. Stick to your rules. The market and your accounts will recover. You know that though!
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Keeping a close eye on that 583 support level. If SPY closes below that today we might be in trouble. It's breaking out of existing channel and might be forming a new one. Next stop down is 574, then 567. VIX currently 22. Not a good day to make trades for me at least unless strong conviction.
 

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What a fickle market. Tests 573 and now back up to 588. I opened down 8K, now I'm up 16K with zero trades made, all within the first 70 mins. Keeping an eye on QUBT and have several alerts. I'm really not sold on it but I noticed Steven Cress released an article yesterday and apparently has jumped on board the QUBT train and no doubt the publicity may bring in new buyers. Still no real institutional involvement so it appears to be a big retail pump at the moment. Still though....developing bullish ichi on lower timeframes. If it shows more stability, I may dip my toes back in.
 
What a fickle market. Tests 573 and now back up to 588. I opened down 8K, now I'm up 16K with zero trades made, all within the first 70 mins. Keeping an eye on QUBT and have several alerts. I'm really not sold on it but I noticed Steven Cress released an article yesterday and apparently has jumped on board the QUBT train and no doubt the publicity may bring in new buyers. Still no real institutional involvement so it appears to be a big retail pump at the moment. Still though....developing bullish ichi on lower timeframes. If it shows more stability, I may dip my toes back in.
You have that kind of money in TSLA only. That is brave.
 
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MSTR

BTFD

View attachment 396492

LFG


(in case anybody is wondering about the trade, the ticker definitely bottomed out in premarket, showed strength going into open, PCE numbers looked good, BTC looked good, and thus I figured risk on. Used ODTE calls expiring today)
That’s a badass trade. Congrats! 🎈
 
That’s a badass trade. Congrats! 🎈

I think you, as an experienced trader, know the feeling

When the chart and the surrounding environment provide that rare A+ setup. The one that, previously, based on your trade journaling has a 90% chance of going your way.

Once you do this long enough, you realize that this is your rare opportunity to SIZE UP

Took me many years, and many losses, to learn to sit on my hands until these opportunities presented themselves.

Trade on brothers!
 
I think you, as an experienced trader, know the feeling

When the chart and the surrounding environment provide that rare A+ setup. The one that, previously, based on your trade journaling has a 90% chance of going your way.

Once you do this long enough, you realize that this is your rare opportunity to SIZE UP

Took me many years, and many losses, to learn to sit on my hands until these opportunities presented themselves.

Trade on brothers!
Just look out for silver, and frozen orange juice futures!!

(Those brothers that tried to corner the silver market around 1976 were the inspiration for the Duke brothers in Trading Places.)
 
Just look out for silver, and frozen orange juice futures!!

(Those brothers that tried to corner the silver market around 1976 were the inspiration for the Duke brothers in Trading Places.)

Haha very very familiar with that story and the Hunt brothers

There are so many key stories that every trader knows about
Burry's Big Short
Jim Simon's Medallion Fund
Livermore's Short on the 1929 downturn
George Soros in general
Peter Lynch's carrier

These are the titans I look up to and who I want to emulate on some small retail level
 
Just look out for silver, and frozen orange juice futures!!

(Those brothers that tried to corner the silver market around 1976 were the inspiration for the Duke brothers in Trading Places.)
Trading Places is a documentary. I had no idea. Merry New Year!
 
From here on, my investment will be in the Mag 7. I am hevily Weighted Tsla and plan on being 40+ Tesla then 60% mag 7. I currently have 500K in Tesla and will continue to buy on any dip. I hope to be able to do this in the next 2-3 months. I have sold puts to get more tesla but it keeps going up.

Tech will lead the way in the future and these are all the best of Breed. NVDA, Msft, Appl, Amz, Tesla, goog have huge moats that are almost impossible to penetrate. It is their playground and whoever wants to play in it will likely be crushed.

Stocks is only about 5% of my net worth so its not a big risk. I hope to get stocks up to 10% of my net worth eventually.
 
I have a TSLA with latest version FSD. I drive FSD 98% of the time in the city. They are close and if DJT regulations are loosened and people see how safe it is, then it will be game over.

Tsla is about 10 years ahead of everyone else on FSD then it will be robotics.
 
I have a TSLA with latest version FSD. I drive FSD 98% of the time in the city. They are close and if DJT regulations are loosened and people see how safe it is, then it will be game over.

Tsla is about 10 years ahead of everyone else on FSD then it will be robotics.

I use FSD almost everywhere now. They are 1-2 years away from being completely autonomous and having robo taxis.

Years and years ahead of the competition as far as fsd functionality.
 
Ok, so end of year portfolio performance for transparency. I don't see this changing too much since we only have a few more market days but will update it if it changes significantly. Altogether, pretty happy.

Screenshot 2024-12-21 at 12.34.16 PM.png


Outperformed all the major indexes at 44.6% Lessons learned:

Stay vigilant. I got very distracted for a few months during the middle of the year with moving and was not doing very much active trading and I let all my stops get way out of date so when the market dipped in August, I got severely punished for it. I started actively trading again not too far after that time and managed to make up for it but it hurt. No excuse for the flat portfolio performance from May to July versus the rise in the index because I was just not actively trading much during that time with all the moving. Mentally, I had taken money out to buy a house and knew this year would be expensive with the move and new house projects so I anticipated not being able to contribute much toward the portfolio. In fact, all my fed contributions to the SEP were from my non tax deferred brokerage earnings so in essence I didn't contribute anything out of my paycheck this year and I think I let that get me down mentally. It wasn't until Sept once I got settled into the new house that I got revved back up again. I anticipate being able to aggressively contribute again in 2025 and even more so after I get my old house sold.

I think I can further optimize my stop loss orders for 2025. I think my overall "system" is getting nice and polished and the familiarity with the types and styles of trades is getting very automatic and I find the familiarity makes sticking to the rules easier, even when the trades go against you because I know the system works and it doesn't mentally mess with my head if a trade didn't work out. I may try to do a little more day trading in 2025 though historically I'm not a great day trader. I'd like to get better though.

Anyway, here's hoping that all of us have successful trades in 2025!

Oh, took over wife's portfolio about 3 months ago and so far so good. Beating SPY at 11% I plan to treat it exactly like my own with almost identical trades so we'll see how 2025 looks once there's more performance history.

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That's awesome. Are you actively trading the retirement account or what's the main reason for the significant outperformance compared to the SPY? Heavy MAG7?
Yes and heavy on MAG 7.

We got 2 (myself and my spouse) retirement accounts. My account is up 50%+ and spouse 33%+. My spouse stop working mid 2018 and her 401k balance was less than 100k when she stopped working. Balance now ~237k.

Year to Date (my 401k)
1/1/2024 - 12/20/2024 : 52.45%
 
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I use FSD almost everywhere now. They are 1-2 years away from being completely autonomous and having robo taxis.

Years and years ahead of the competition as far as fsd functionality.
They’ve been 1 or 2 years away for a while now. I’ll believe it when I see it. I love Tesla as a tech company but not so much as an auto manufacturer.
 
Ok, so end of year portfolio performance for transparency. I don't see this changing too much since we only have a few more market days but will update it if it changes significantly. Altogether, pretty happy.

View attachment 396505

Outperformed all the major indexes at 44.6% Lessons learned:

Stay vigilant. I got very distracted for a few months during the middle of the year with moving and was not doing very much active trading and I let all my stops get way out of date so when the market dipped in August, I got severely punished for it. I started actively trading again not too far after that time and managed to make up for it but it hurt. No excuse for the flat portfolio performance from May to July versus the rise in the index because I was just not actively trading much during that time with all the moving. Mentally, I had taken money out to buy a house and knew this year would be expensive with the move and new house projects so I anticipated not being able to contribute much toward the portfolio. In fact, all my fed contributions to the SEP were from my non tax deferred brokerage earnings so in essence I didn't contribute anything out of my paycheck this year and I think I let that get me down mentally. It wasn't until Sept once I got settled into the new house that I got revved back up again. I anticipate being able to aggressively contribute again in 2025 and even more so after I get my old house sold.

I think I can further optimize my stop loss orders for 2025. I think my overall "system" is getting nice and polished and the familiarity with the types and styles of trades is getting very automatic and I find the familiarity makes sticking to the rules easier, even when the trades go against you because I know the system works and it doesn't mentally mess with my head if a trade didn't work out. I may try to do a little more day trading in 2025 though historically I'm not a great day trader. I'd like to get better though.

Anyway, here's hoping that all of us have successful trades in 2025!

Oh, took over wife's portfolio about 3 months ago and so far so good. Beating SPY at 11% I plan to treat it exactly like my own with almost identical trades so we'll see how 2025 looks once there's more performance history.

View attachment 396506
Ahhhhhh. In an investment group (of sorts) that I'm in, showing performance usually kills the market. Yes, we're superstitious. Yes, it works. Probably because showing a pnl big enough to show means market has gone up a lot.
 
Ok, so end of year portfolio performance for transparency. I don't see this changing too much since we only have a few more market days but will update it if it changes significantly. Altogether, pretty happy.

View attachment 396505

Outperformed all the major indexes at 44.6% Lessons learned:

Stay vigilant. I got very distracted for a few months during the middle of the year with moving and was not doing very much active trading and I let all my stops get way out of date so when the market dipped in August, I got severely punished for it. I started actively trading again not too far after that time and managed to make up for it but it hurt. No excuse for the flat portfolio performance from May to July versus the rise in the index because I was just not actively trading much during that time with all the moving. Mentally, I had taken money out to buy a house and knew this year would be expensive with the move and new house projects so I anticipated not being able to contribute much toward the portfolio. In fact, all my fed contributions to the SEP were from my non tax deferred brokerage earnings so in essence I didn't contribute anything out of my paycheck this year and I think I let that get me down mentally. It wasn't until Sept once I got settled into the new house that I got revved back up again. I anticipate being able to aggressively contribute again in 2025 and even more so after I get my old house sold.

I think I can further optimize my stop loss orders for 2025. I think my overall "system" is getting nice and polished and the familiarity with the types and styles of trades is getting very automatic and I find the familiarity makes sticking to the rules easier, even when the trades go against you because I know the system works and it doesn't mentally mess with my head if a trade didn't work out. I may try to do a little more day trading in 2025 though historically I'm not a great day trader. I'd like to get better though.

Anyway, here's hoping that all of us have successful trades in 2025!

Oh, took over wife's portfolio about 3 months ago and so far so good. Beating SPY at 11% I plan to treat it exactly like my own with almost identical trades so we'll see how 2025 looks once there's more performance history.

View attachment 396506

I apologize if you’ve answered this before already but how much time do you find you have to spend per day/week analyzing the market to make sure you’re making well informed decisions?

Second question is when you take a break as you mentioned above, how easy is it to get back into the swing of things? Is there a ramp up period once you get back into it?

Thanks! Really appreciate your posts.
 
The guy I mentioned other day on r/TradingEdge posted his "system" and I'm not sure whether I believe it or not. If it's to be believed, he claims an average CAGR of 70% and it's basically 3 portfolios. The largest does nothing but buy dips in the market each year, leveraged SPXL 3x. He then has a portfolio with nothing but big tech stocks like MAGS. He then has a very small one that he does swing trades. I pulled up MAGS and what's depressing is that I could have just dumped my entire portfolio into that this past year and doubled my performance. I've got to analyze his post, he basically posted a huge essay on it a day or 2 ago and I'm still not sure I believe it. He may be on to something though.
Screenshot 2024-12-22 at 9.49.37 AM.png
 
I apologize if you’ve answered this before already but how much time do you find you have to spend per day/week analyzing the market to make sure you’re making well informed decisions?

Second question is when you take a break as you mentioned above, how easy is it to get back into the swing of things? Is there a ramp up period once you get back into it?

Thanks! Really appreciate your posts.
Honestly, I'm pretty much always analyzing the market but it's kind of a hobby for me. If you mean analyzation required to make my trades, it might be something on the order of....1 hour per day or so with 2-3 hours on the weekend.

The ramp up time doesn't take long. The screeners are outputting potential buys almost every day but probably 30% of my potential stocks are from manual alerts that I do as I review the charts and in doing my own research and fundamental analysis. Once I make those alerts, they might not go off for weeks, so once I have enough of them built in TradingView, I can pretty much guarantee I will get steady alerts from week to week.
 
If you're curious, I have 46 active alerts in TV at the moment and probably over 4K inactive. I like to have 50+ active at any one time so any time it gets below 50, I make an effort to research some more and set new ones.
 
Screenshot 2024-12-22 at 10.17.51 AM.png

Here's an example. CCL shows up on my list. It's high on the quant list. Great fundamentals. Love the chart. Bullish sector. Big momentum. Big green cloud. Price far to the left of cloud. Kijun-sen pointing up (red line under the blue line) SSA/B pointing up (cloud lines). Price over SMA 50. SMA 50 over 150/200. Recent pull back drove the SRSI low and now that it found support and is reversing, there has been a K/D crossover that caused my screener to produce it on my daily list.

So, I immediately want some CCL. However, I don't really like the fact that there has been such a big, immediate reversal and this is sometimes the problem with K/D crossover alerts is that the price may have reversed so enthusiastically that it's way off from support, in this case about 8% which is just too much. (This is why I will not only use K/D crossover alerts but also will use just RSI alerts alone with no K/D so I can identify them early and check them every day and can eyeball a reversal before the K/D is actually getting generated and find a better entry, etc..). Anyway, so in this case I don't want to enter 8% away from my stop. So, I go on the shorter timeframes and set a new RSI alert on the 15M and 30M hoping that it will generate later that day as price retraces while the market is open. In this case, it generated a 15M alert before market close and I chose to let it run some more hoping to get an even better price. The 30M alert generated after market close and price is slightly below where I set the alert before. If it gaps up on Monday, then I've just lost the entry opportunity and I go on to the next one. If it's still a little lower than opening price on Friday, then I just calculate and if it's an acceptable distance from a stop loss and/or I want it bad enough, then I'll buy it.

Otherwise, I just go to another one on my list. My screeners generally produce about 1-8 stocks per day within the quant list and might generate up to 40 from the S&P, it just depends. The RSI K/D settings are as follows in TV:

Screenshot 2024-12-22 at 10.37.13 AM.png


It's worth noting that most of the time I'm not bothering with lower timeframes at all if the stop is tight. So, if I had noticed a stop around 5% or so, I would have simply bought CCL and not even really cared if the price retraced a little bit later that day since I'm more concerned about the medium term.
 
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The guy I mentioned other day on r/TradingEdge posted his "system" and I'm not sure whether I believe it or not. If it's to be believed, he claims an average CAGR of 70% and it's basically 3 portfolios. The largest does nothing but buy dips in the market each year, leveraged SPXL 3x. He then has a portfolio with nothing but big tech stocks like MAGS. He then has a very small one that he does swing trades. I pulled up MAGS and what's depressing is that I could have just dumped my entire portfolio into that this past year and doubled my performance. I've got to analyze his post, he basically posted a huge essay on it a day or 2 ago and I'm still not sure I believe it. He may be on to something though.
View attachment 396525
I think reddit summarized it for you.
Screenshot_20241222-132252.jpg
 
I think reddit summarized it for you.View attachment 396531

LOL, I read some of those. I actually pasted it in the new ChatGPT o1 and it summarized it a little better but was also critical. For me, it's a really tough system as most of your money is sitting in cash during bull runs which to me is just inherently counterintuitive. I think I'd go crazy if we had 4 months of bullish gains and I'm twiddling my thumbs waiting for a SPXL retracement over 15%.

The new o1 model is amazing. It actually gave me several areas to improve my own system and it's too much to go through in a day. I saved it and will come back and analyze when I have time but damn, I can't wait until this thing has real time market data.
 
Bought AAL, MAGS, TWLO, QTUM. QTUM is an ETF following the quantum computing space. I think it has legs for 2025. Here is my most aggressive portfolio. Definitely NOT reproducible every year.

View attachment 396589

Im going to look into qtum. Aal is such a cyclical play - gas prices go up, airlines get destroyed. Though i played a lot of jets when jets was sub $20
 
Current EOY portfolio:

ALK
AMZN
AAL
APP
EAT
CCL
CLS
YOU
DOCU
DXPE
EFXT
GDDY
KINS
LC
LX
META
NTGR
NCLH
PLTR
PYPL
PRIM
RCL
SYF
TPR
TARS
TZOO
VSCO
WFC
ZBRA

ETFS:

ENFR
QTUM
SPXL
SPMO
MAGS

Update: Closed ENFR, used the money to buy more MAGS.
 
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Im going to look into qtum. Aal is such a cyclical play - gas prices go up, airlines get destroyed. Though i played a lot of jets when jets was sub $20
Yeah, I thought of going back in on QUBT but it's just so volatile as well as RGTI, etc.. It reminds me of the early EV days when I was making bank on RIVN and LCID but waking up in the middle of the day during my night shifts panicking, drenched in sweat, hands shaking as I checked to see if price had whipsawed. I find when some of these new niche sectors come along with potential to fuel investor obsession, it's just impossible to guess which one is going to do well. I "suspect" that 2025 will have a quantum obsession even if it's short lived and although QTUM might not be as profitable, it's a safer play IMO.

Yeah, I used to be superstitious with all types of stocks. Airlines, biotech, Chinese stocks, etc.. Now, I just follow the chart. Airlines have been good to me this year unlike others. This was my year of planes and boats.
 
Yeah, I thought of going back in on QUBT but it's just so volatile as well as RGTI, etc.. It reminds me of the early EV days when I was making bank on RIVN and LCID but waking up in the middle of the day during my night shifts panicking, drenched in sweat, hands shaking as I checked to see if price had whipsawed. I find when some of these new niche sectors come along with potential to fuel investor obsession, it's just impossible to guess which one is going to do well. I "suspect" that 2025 will have a quantum obsession even if it's short lived and although QTUM might not be as profitable, it's a safer play IMO.

Yeah, I used to be superstitious with all types of stocks. Airlines, biotech, Chinese stocks, etc.. Now, I just follow the chart. Airlines have been good to me this year unlike others. This was my year of planes and boats.

I looked into ccl and rcl at pandemic lows.

Looking at stocks now just makes me think id be an excellent stock picker 🤣 there’s so many stocks where ive basically gone through a bottom when charts look like crap and as a fundamentals based investor that’s when I’m pulling off big positions - except as out of the money puts with risk mitigation for the likely event that the falling knife will keep falling before reversal.

As an avid cruiser whose been on 5 cruises already, i like RCL as a business better. But CCL is a better value based on where the stock is. RCL is my favorite cruise line lol.

Ive started pulling the trigger on increasing position size for leaps for ewz. I’ve sold 335 $17 contracts for 1 year from now and 285 $15 strike.

The whole etf is trading at a P/E ratio of 7.5 with a bunch of cash flow positive companies and basically an almost 9% dividend based on todays prices. It’s also reaching historic support levels of around covid lows.

But yeah…. Have a large enough position on ewz that should make me 38k alone in 1 year. Not bad for 150k of buying power that’s being used. 25% return in what i believe is a very very very unlikely event ($15 strike is a P/E ratio of under 5 average for the entire etf of 57 companies and a 13.3% dividends based on current $2/share annual dividend).

If it gets to $15 - i will likely buy 800k worth of ewz - enjoy a 13% dividend and then sell covered calls to squeeze out another 10-15%.

So best case - i make 25%, worst case i make 25% after buying the etf at $17 and $15 until the etf recovers.
 
What's funny is that I own these cruise line stocks and I've never set foot on a cruise ship in my life, lol. I have a fear of deep, open water and being locked on a ship at sea terrifies me. I won't even get in planes that travel over open oceans unless it's briefly on the way to Caribbean. I've never been to Europe. Hawaii and Europe are out of the question. They'd have to tranq me like BA Baracus on A-Team.
 
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