Reverse WW - Game Thread

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Official Day 4 Missy Elliot Lynch Tally
grebes (2) - Frosty, Miz
SAR (1) - grebes
FTF (1) - acan
Barks (2) - SAR, Dolphin
dubz (1) - Nav
allie (1) - dubz

8/13
lynch close in ~23 hrs
4f76ae98-c1dd-430b-93a4-0f858162f445-giphy-gif.268556
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acanthuroidei said:
> FTF's randlynching is pro-village.
> FTF didn't vote yesterday; people who aren't voting are likely village, because the only way wolves can win this game (as far as I can tell, and please correct me if I'm wrong) is influencing lynches, so I have a hard time believing wolves are passing up on voting.
> Wolves have been night-killing the runner up lynch candidate when they are village. A good strategy to test unknowns is to put people we're not sure of in the second place position and see what happens after the night cycle; obviously someone surviving isn't definitive proof they're a wolf, but it's definitely informative.
Click to expand...
then talk to me about the coop voters
who i originally thought were all village before they came under suspect with that pippy vote
very suspicious venn diagram
 
acanthuroidei said:
Statistics disagrees with you.

People voting for people they THINK are village is not a guaranteed result of villagers being lynched. Village voting error is what the wolves would need to happen to win this.

Voting for a mod = not voting for a wolf.
Click to expand...
uhh
you missed the point where you can skew the odds
in regular ww you can townlock one person and chances are you're right if the read is good enough
and that'll make all the difference in terms of who you can bounce reads off of and talk to

here that's still a thing you just need to go about it p ****in differently
 
acanthuroidei said:
Elaborate.
Click to expand...
only name is dolphin
mpm is dead
but dolphin voted both coop and pippy

the thing about wolves is they dont necessarily see the game the same way that village sees it
so for coop to be killed and have those 2 people voting them switch right over to a wolf makes me think that's one of those kills
need to read dolphin's posts
 
Dr. ForgotToFlush said:
only name is dolphin
mpm is dead
but dolphin voted both coop and pippy

the thing about wolves is they dont necessarily see the game the same way that village sees it
so for coop to be killed and have those 2 people voting them switch right over to a wolf makes me think that's one of those kills
need to read dolphin's posts
Click to expand...

Maybe. But I feel like it's easy to overinterpret significance of votes on earlier days, because let's be real, villagers are all fumbling around blindly at that point. Correct votes could be mostly luck, and incorrect could just be bad luck.

I have no significant thoughts on dolphin.
 
alright reread d2 and i have discovered the following
-pippy promised reads and just...never gave em
-there was a point where wagons were 3/3/3/3 so need to go back and look at that again
-some people followed pippy onto msp which is nothing short of weird (Self excluded)
might be a good look for those people
 
1 in: MJ
Take to endgame

1 minimum in:
frosty
dolphin
cubs
allieh
Keep alive as long as possible

SO 1 likely in:
SARdoghandler
acanthuroidei
Navilly
mizchiefmanaged
Barkley13
grebes4lyfe
WildZoo

im trying to math it rn but i think you can literally lynch all 4 in the second group and win
depends on how many wolves are actually in that group
but let's say 1

13 alive and after 4 lynches that takes you to
5 alive with two wolves alive
so this is the exact opposite of how i thought it would go and is completely non-ideal since there's probs a chance of more than 1?
maybe
so just ignore that completely

so the job for tonight is to
read all posts between those 4 in the second group as well as all of pippy's & mj's posts
and then see who can be aligned with each other
not find wolves, but rule out possible w/w worlds
because if you have a b c and e
and a cant be wolves with b c and e because of whatever spewy interactions you dig up
then either a is a wolf
or it's some combination of b c and e
meaning a maximum of 3 wolves

now returning to thing i said to ignore
if you have a maximum of 3 wolves and you flip 1
then youve either flipped someone you ruled out in worlds with everyone else
OR you flipped someone in the group of 3 and you cleared the one you ruled out instead
which means that looking into these associations among the pippy wagon
provides what's basically a safety net

now ahem
Ordinarily I'd do this myself and read all those posts since it's only 6 isos
but i dont like this site's iso feature :x
SO DOES ANYONE WANNA VOLUNTEER TO DO IT FOR ME so i dont have to

so with that
you do this world building thing, and then you decide who is more village than who
where the actual mafia reads come into play
seeing that they most likely will since i cant rig a group nor can i guarantee only 1 wolf (people were voting pippy for ****all)

so yes
group 2 needs to be sorted per associations and then tone
maybe you find 2 villagers in that group, maybe you find 1
BUT YOU DONT PRESS YOUR LUCK
you put all the focus into the third group since if there's 2 wolves in the pippy voters, the last group has to be all town, or mj is town
you decide which is more likely
 
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and if you realize something
you can turbo lynch in the third group which ive been saying for ****ing ever
and pretty safely not hit more than one wolf
even if you hit a wolf then
you still securely win the game knowing that mj is pretty much always a wolf here and there's one among the pippy voters
 
@Dr. ForgotToFlush I might be reading wrong because I haven't finished my coffee yet, but to recap you are saying lynching within the third group is safer than lynching within the second group? But looking for interactions between those in the second group is also a good idea to parse out which players can't be wolves for later?


Anyway if you want those ISO's, I think I already interesting points for all in group 2 except cubs. So I am happy to look into him now while I have a few moments. My interpretation is allie/pip wolfing together is pretty unlikely, while dolphin/pip and/or frosty/pip feels like a real possibility (especially the latter imo). Not sure yet if dolphin/frosty works
 
We don't know how many wolves there are, do we? Typical numbers would make me think 4 but not sure if this game would have "typical" numbers. In any case I'll work with 4 until we see evidence otherwise.

So wolf teams I'm evaluating -
A: Pip/MJ/frosty/dolphin
B: Pip/MJ/frosty/barks
C: Pip/MJ/barks/grebes
D: Pip/MJ/barks/cubs

That's just for fun though and because I can't resist that kind of analysis, even though . I think we're pretty safe lynching allie, probably safe lynching SAR and I'm just paranoid about voting/agreeing with two of my wolf reads. Miz and Nav I feel a little less safe about but statistics (and in Nav's case, not getting too trapped by WIFOM fallacies) say they're probably alright. I'm a little weirded out by Flushy and roid suddenly contributing more than random lynches o_O

grebes4lyfe said:
I am sure that roid is a wolf
Click to expand...
How/Why?
 
Why do you have 3 teams with barks, 2 with frosty, but then one with your others. What interactions are drawing you that way.

Also, today will be another... day. Will try to get my 5 posts in and vote before deadline, 10 pm best time zone?
 
Navilly said:
Why do you have 3 teams with barks, 2 with frosty, but then one with your others. What interactions are drawing you that way.

Also, today will be another... day. Will try to get my 5 posts in and vote before deadline, 10 pm best time zone?
Click to expand...
Just top of my head ones I wanted to look at based on likelihood in my mind of those individuals being wolves and what I could remember of their interactions. The whole point was to look at specifics later since my brain can only hold so much! I have 3 for barks because I don't have a reason to think she can't be wolfing with the other options and she's higher on my wolf list than dolphin and cubs. Cubs being a wolf would be dependent on barks being one in my mind, if she's not then the only thing I've got against him iirc is that he voted for pip.
 
cubsrule4e said:
Lynch Dubildzoo, was considering FTF until that whole page of word vomit. Acanth seems pretty wolfy and I can see a wolfy grebes as well. Dolphin village read and would vote there today too.
Click to expand...
That "word vomit" looks like a solid village win plan to me, but I can see why a wolf would be trying to discredit it.

Tell me more about my "wolfiness." It keeps getting thrown around, but nobody has provided any supporting evidence.
 
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cubsrule4e said:
Lynch Dubildzoo, was considering FTF until that whole page of word vomit. Acanth seems pretty wolfy and I can see a wolfy grebes as well. Dolphin village read and would vote there today too.
Click to expand...
How do you feel about me?
 
cubsrule4e said:
Lynch Dubildzoo, was considering FTF until that whole page of word vomit. Acanth seems pretty wolfy and I can see a wolfy grebes as well. Dolphin village read and would vote there today too.
Click to expand...
Wow you’re the only person giving me a village read I’m gonna be in this game forever.

I was feeling more village on dubz until I saw her wolf pairing list thing.
 
WildZoo said:
How/Why?
Click to expand...

In addition to what I’ve said earlier about him:

This exchange grossed me out
acanthuroidei said:
> Wolves have been night-killing the runner up lynch candidate when they are village. A good strategy to test unknowns is to put people we're not sure of in the second place position and see what happens after the night cycle; obviously someone surviving isn't definitive proof they're a wolf, but it's definitely informative.
Click to expand...

Barkley13 said:

This is a good thought, except now that you’ve pointed it out I can see how the wolves may decide to change their tactics to add some confusion
Click to expand...

acanthuroidei said:
No ****, Sherlock. :pompous:
Click to expand...

Also, him speaking about villagers in the 3rd person here seems like a slip up to me

acanthuroidei said:
Maybe. But I feel like it's easy to overinterpret significance of votes on earlier days, because let's be real, villagers are all fumbling around blindly at that point. Correct votes could be mostly luck, and incorrect could just be bad luck.

I have no significant thoughts on dolphin.
Click to expand...

I am very confident in this read
 
dolphin106258 said:
Wow you’re the only person giving me a village read I’m gonna be in this game forever.

I was feeling more village on dubz until I saw her wolf pairing list thing.
Click to expand...

True...normally youd be really pissed about not being read village... but its also a reverse game... so again, from the very beginning, acting a little off, but not sure which way that pushes your affiliation, but right now im feeling more village.
 
acanthuroidei said:
That "word vomit" looks like a solid village win plan to me, but I can see why a wolf would be trying to discredit it.

Tell me more about my "wolfiness." It keeps getting thrown around, but nobody has provided any supporting evidence.
Click to expand...

Youve been out front this game getting in peoples faces. Definitely a different style of play from your original.
 
cubsrule4e said:
True...normally youd be really pissed about not being read village... but its also a reverse game... so again, from the very beginning, acting a little off, but not sure which way that pushes your affiliation, but right now im feeling more village.
Click to expand...
Yeah I get that. I mean I definitely understand the sketch I’ve attracted by going for Pip. But also I am just not loving this style of game so it’s making my play less than great. Which is fun.
 
WildZoo said:
We don't know how many wolves there are, do we? Typical numbers would make me think 4 but not sure if this game would have "typical" numbers. In any case I'll work with 4 until we see evidence otherwise.

So wolf teams I'm evaluating -
A: Pip/MJ/frosty/dolphin
B: Pip/MJ/frosty/barks
C: Pip/MJ/barks/grebes
D: Pip/MJ/barks/cubs

That's just for fun though and because I can't resist that kind of analysis, even though . I think we're pretty safe lynching allie, probably safe lynching SAR and I'm just paranoid about voting/agreeing with two of my wolf reads. Miz and Nav I feel a little less safe about but statistics (and in Nav's case, not getting too trapped by WIFOM fallacies) say they're probably alright. I'm a little weirded out by Flushy and roid suddenly contributing more than random lynches o_O


How/Why?
Click to expand...
What is it about Barks play that has them in three of your Wolfy scenarios?
 
dolphin106258 said:
What is it about Barks play that has them in three of your Wolfy scenarios?
Click to expand...
Interactions with pip. I'll expand more when I can but may not be until after lynch close tonight unfortunately

Speaking of which, not to be selfish or anything but I'd like to stick around as I head into radiology next (barf) and I'd like to have something to distract me from the awful for a little bit, if anyone is looking for reasons to break the tie one way or another lol
 
Final Day 4 Missy Elliot Lynch Tally
grebes (2) - Frosty, Miz
SAR (4) - grebes, Barks, acan, MJ
FTF () -
Barks (2) - SAR, Dolphin
dubz (2) - Nav, cubs
allie (1) - dubz

11/13
Missing: allie, FTF
4f76ae98-c1dd-430b-93a4-0f858162f445-giphy-gif.268556
 
Assuming this is a ww brag.

WildZoo said:
We don't know how many wolves there are, do we? Typical numbers would make me think 4 but not sure if this game would have "typical" numbers. In any case I'll work with 4 until we see evidence otherwise.

So wolf teams I'm evaluating -
A: Pip/MJ/frosty/dolphin
B: Pip/MJ/frosty/barks
C: Pip/MJ/barks/grebes
D: Pip/MJ/barks/cubs

That's just for fun though and because I can't resist that kind of analysis, even though . I think we're pretty safe lynching allie, probably safe lynching SAR and I'm just paranoid about voting/agreeing with two of my wolf reads. Miz and Nav I feel a little less safe about but statistics (and in Nav's case, not getting too trapped by WIFOM fallacies) say they're probably alright. I'm a little weirded out by Flushy and roid suddenly contributing more than random lynches o_O


How/Why?
Click to expand...


What made you feel like SAR was a safe place to lynch?
 
FrostySparrow said:
Assuming this is a ww brag.




What made you feel like SAR was a safe place to lynch?
Click to expand...

How dare you insult my dog by not being totally convinced she is howling like the watered down wolf she is?

(also how dare you not like the post for the lulz, I worked really hard to get it right :p )
 
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Dr. ForgotToFlush said:
1 in: MJ
Take to endgame

1 minimum in:
frosty
dolphin
cubs
allieh
Keep alive as long as possible

SO 1 likely in:
SARdoghandler
acanthuroidei
Navilly
mizchiefmanaged
Barkley13
grebes4lyfe
WildZoo

im trying to math it rn but i think you can literally lynch all 4 in the second group and win
depends on how many wolves are actually in that group
but let's say 1

13 alive and after 4 lynches that takes you to
5 alive with two wolves alive
so this is the exact opposite of how i thought it would go and is completely non-ideal since there's probs a chance of more than 1?
maybe
so just ignore that completely

so the job for tonight is to
read all posts between those 4 in the second group as well as all of pippy's & mj's posts
and then see who can be aligned with each other
not find wolves, but rule out possible w/w worlds
because if you have a b c and e
and a cant be wolves with b c and e because of whatever spewy interactions you dig up
then either a is a wolf
or it's some combination of b c and e
meaning a maximum of 3 wolves

now returning to thing i said to ignore
if you have a maximum of 3 wolves and you flip 1
then youve either flipped someone you ruled out in worlds with everyone else
OR you flipped someone in the group of 3 and you cleared the one you ruled out instead
which means that looking into these associations among the pippy wagon
provides what's basically a safety net

now ahem
Ordinarily I'd do this myself and read all those posts since it's only 6 isos
but i dont like this site's iso feature :x
SO DOES ANYONE WANNA VOLUNTEER TO DO IT FOR ME so i dont have to

so with that
you do this world building thing, and then you decide who is more village than who
where the actual mafia reads come into play
seeing that they most likely will since i cant rig a group nor can i guarantee only 1 wolf (people were voting pippy for ****all)

so yes
group 2 needs to be sorted per associations and then tone
maybe you find 2 villagers in that group, maybe you find 1
BUT YOU DONT PRESS YOUR LUCK
you put all the focus into the third group since if there's 2 wolves in the pippy voters, the last group has to be all town, or mj is town
you decide which is more likely
Click to expand...

Super helpful, appreciate this breakdown of your math. I’m actually a fan of the math *shrug* and having it laid out like this is super convenient.
 
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SARdoghandler said:
How dare you insult my dog by not being totally convinced she is howling like the watered down wolf she is?

(also how dare you not like the post for the lulz, I worked really hard to get it right :p )
Click to expand...


Heart eyes given as your pupper is adorable and I give props for timing this nicely to get the picture at that moment and having it to post :rofl:
 
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