The ultimate COVID thread

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SaltyDog said:
Trump said he would get Mexico to pay for the wall.


On a serious note though, it’s interesting how this virus seems to really not like hot climates.
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Not sure about "really not". Think Australia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Indonesia. They have it, too.
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
With all due respect, there are significant inaccuracies in that. Technical Analysis is real because human behavior has hardly had enough time to evolve and change over the short history of the stock market. The patterns, trends lines, areas of support/resistance, inflection points, etc are incredibly repetitive because human behavior of fear and greed is repetitive. It doesn't mean you'll make money on TA because it is extremely complicated. You often see it after the fact, or you might have the point of significant inflection correct, but guess the inflection direction incorrectly, but without question it exists. If you don't have an extremely high math IQ and don't have experience looking at thousands and thousands and thousands of charts and trends, you are still entitled to your opinion but you should realize you simply aren't qualified to make that statement.
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Just stop. The list of brilliant and legendary investors that ridicule technical analysis is long and distinguished. I believe Buffett once said he realized it didn't work when he turned the chart upside down and got the same answer.

It is literally pseudoscience according to academics in the area. Suggesting people who don't understand it are just not intelligent enough or experienced enough is hilarious.
 
Mman said:
Just stop. The list of brilliant and legendary investors that ridicule technical analysis is long and distinguished. I believe Buffett once said he realized it didn't work when he turned the chart upside down and got the same answer.

It is literally pseudoscience according to academics in the area. Suggesting people who don't understand it are just not intelligent enough or experienced enough is hilarious.
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You don't understand patterns in coffee sediment either, do you? Dumb as a...
 
FFP said:
You don't understand patterns in coffee sediment either, do you? Dumb as a...
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FFP said:
Another huge failure of this administration: He Has 17,700 Bottles of Hand Sanitizer and Nowhere to Sell Them
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Just stop already with the blaming Trump for literally everything bad. We get it, you hate the guy. There is no need to keep spamming every thread with posts that contribute nothing to the discussion, and just serve to demonstrate your hatred for the guy.

Trying to blame Trump because some entrepeneur(s) tried to take advantage of the situation is absolutely bizzare.

Besides, you ignored the part where the existing, private enterprise system worked. A private business took steps to shut down the guy for trying to take advantage of the situation, and now he is looking at a financial loss. The private, free press reported on it as a warning to others that might try to do the same.
 
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periopdoc said:
Just STFU already about blaming literally everything bad on Trump. We get it, you hate the guy. There is no need to keep spamming every thread with posts that contribute nothing to the discussion, and just serve to demonstrate your, borderline deranged, hatred for the guy.

Trying to blame Trump because some entrepeneur(s) tried to take advantage of the situation is absolutely bizzare.
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Entrepreneurship is a generous word for that.

Criticizing someone for not being good at his or her job is something we should do. One of the functions of the Presidency is to project authority and leadership to ensure the safety of the citizens of the nation. The President is failing at that and defending him and his administration while it happens before our eyes is even more bizarre.
 
Who is defending Trump?

It's fine to criticize the president. It's an American tradition. But the literal spamming of threads with nothing but looking for, and in some cases manufacturing, reasons to blame Trump for something else is just clogging up the board.
 
Dipped in some VTI today with about 5% of my available funds Friday AM. Going to repeat here and there over next 4-6 weeks.
 
periopdoc said:
Who is defending Trump?

It's fine to criticize the president. It's an American tradition. But the literal spamming of threads with nothing but looking for, and in some cases manufacturing, reasons to blame Trump for something else is just clogging up the board.
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I was an internal medicine resident at a large urban medical center in the Northeast during H1N1. I’m not sure if the scope of this pandemic is comparable to that one, but comparisons have been made so it might be relevant. I remember the response to that being much more measured. We were prepared for it and there was no concern about the lack of testing. We did see a surge in our ICUs at the time, but we were ready for it. What I don’t remember is public panic. I don’t remember a run on toilet paper or hand sanitizer.

This time, the hospital I work at seems woefully unprepared. Friends of mine at large academic centers tell me the same thing. Now we are seeing panic buying of toilet paper and Clorox wipes. There is no guidance from leadership on how to respond. The lack of testing has been discussed ad nauseum.

Why the difference? Maybe I was just a 20-something during H1N1 that was more concerned with my social life to pay attention. Maybe the scope of this is just far greater than H1N1. However, part of me can’t help but wonder if the lack of national leadership is seriously hindering our response. While the president is not directly responsible for some loser price gouging people for toilet paper, he is partially responsible the economic conditions that made it possible.
 
It would just be nice to not have FFP blame Trump for everything in every thread for eternity. That's all he's saying.
 
periopdoc said:
Just stop already with the blaming Trump for literally everything bad. We get it, you hate the guy. There is no need to keep spamming every thread with posts that contribute nothing to the discussion, and just serve to demonstrate your hatred for the guy.

Trying to blame Trump because some entrepeneur(s) tried to take advantage of the situation is absolutely bizzare.

Besides, you ignored the part where the existing, private enterprise system worked. A private business took steps to shut down the guy for trying to take advantage of the situation, and now he is looking at a financial loss. The private, free press reported on it as a warning to others that might try to do the same.
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I get it. You're a fan, I am not. That doesn't change the FACT that this crisis is grossly mismanaged, and we will see both its economic and human effects.

In any emergency situation, punishing speculators and locking in prices is basic national emergency stuff, one would say common sense. It has nothing to do with the free market. In times of crisis, the nation should come together as one, helping each other, not trying to exploit one another.

Again, this is not about you liking Trump, or me not. I will be more than happy if you post links that show how we are finally doing the right things (e.g. closing down all businesses, establishing curfews etc.). I am looking forward to it.
 
Shimmy8 said:
It would just be nice to not have FFP blame Trump for everything in every thread for eternity. That's all he's saying.
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You should read "Extreme Ownership: How US Navy Seals Lead and Win" by Jocko Willink (a decorated retired SEAL team leader). You would learn that true leaders always take responsibility. That agrees with my notion of leadership. A weak leader like Trump always blames others. I have seen it again and again in my native country, and many weak (non-)democracies.

"The buck stops here" is a famous saying by an American... president.
 
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GravelRider said:
I suppose he could take the Trump approach and blame Obama for everything.
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Exactly. Trump refuses to take responsibility for anything. All he does is whine and blame others.
 
BLADEMDA said:
So, FFP and Doze are correct. This will be a huge "2008 type" event which will likely take at least 1, if not 2 years, for the markets to recover. I've cancelled my pending orders but have spent half my dry powder already. I liquidated a bond fund and CD in order to raise more cash. I now have a nice stash of dry powder once the market bottoms. I'm going to actually wait for the bottom which will be an S and P of 2150. The pundits on TV are all doom and gloom but are positive we will retest 2350 in the next 1-7 days. 1/2 of them think we will fall to an S and P 500 of 2150. So, I'm going to wait this out until we approach 2200. I do think 2350 is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point.

This is a true Bear market with a recession. FYI, some of my stocks are back to 2009-2010 levels so this is a real blood bath. Many good companies are down 50-60% from their highs already.

This lesson, March 2020, has taught me that I definitely do not want more than 55% equity exposure going into my retirement years. I still have time to recover completely (my time horizon is 3-5 years) from this Bear market but I'll need to re-balance aggressively out of equities once the Bull returns to Wallstreet.

As for FFP's comment on my feeling the pain I can assure him that every asset class I own is down from the highs except GOLD. Only Gold has truly held up in this bear market. My return from gold over the past 5-7 years is small but positive. That is not true for some other asset classes by the time this Bear market hits the bottom.

I still stand by my posts that the next few weeks is a fantastic investment opportunity for those with a 3+ year time horizon. Perhaps, the S and P 500 retraces all the way back to 1850 making this the third worst bear market of all time.
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With the government stepping in, you think we are close to the bottom or is more coming?
 
Arch Guillotti said:
Exactly. Trump refuses to take responsibility for anything. All he does is whine and blame others.
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You guys are correct. Trump genetically engineered this virus in the trump tower basement.

As of now, this virus has been a joke. I know it’s early but the hype has yet to match the fallout. I know we are early, time will tell.

All I will say is this, when a state declares corona a “emergency” with two confirmed cases and zero deaths, we are being a little over the top imo
 
I think trumps number one goal is a strong economy. He didn’t want to jump the gun and spook the world unless absolutely necessary. Clearly he’s back tracked.

The liberal media will turn this political, bc let’s face it, they come after him on every matter.

Personally I don’t think this is worth crashing the world economy. Then again, I don’t want us to turn out like Italy.
 
marr65 said:
Who is to say that he didn’t? He is a stable genius, don’t mock our Supreme Leader! Trump playing 4D chess on all you fools!
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I will be more than happy if proven a fool. Although some people confuse luck with genius. Most people who get far in life are more lucky than geniuses (see NN Taleb).
 
Wkrdoc said:
Then again, I don’t want us to turn out like Italy.
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Forgive my ignorance, but has this been a disaster throughout the whole of Italy, or has it remained localized to northern Italy (where it has clearly been tragic).
 
Wkrdoc said:
I think trumps number one goal is a strong economy. He didn’t want to jump the gun and spook the world unless absolutely necessary. Clearly he’s back tracked.

The liberal media will turn this political, bc let’s face it, they come after him on every matter.

Personally I don’t think this is worth crashing the world economy. Then again, I don’t want us to turn out like Italy.
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The economy does matter. But a good leader would understand his (scientific) limits and listen to expert advisors (not Faux News). A bad decision can cost thousands of lives. He doesn't project the level of understanding he should have at this point.

It's not easy being president, nobody said it was. Damned if you do, damned if you don't; everybody is an expert and a Monday morning quarterback.
 
SaltyDog said:
Forgive my ignorance, but has this been a disaster throughout the whole of Italy, or has it remained localized to northern Italy (where it has clearly been tragic).
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Mostly in the north, does 1260 deaths qualify as tragic disaster? For some it will, for me it doesn't.
 
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dhb said:
Mostly in the north, does 1260 deaths qualify as tragic disaster? For some it will, for me it doesn't.
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Only if you realize that they probably had 5-10 times that number hospitalized in just a few days (80% mild, 20% hospital-level, 10% ICU, 3% die, if I remember the Chinese numbers correctly).

So they've probably had 3-4,000 ICU patients in a very short time, most of them in a relatively small area.
 
FFP said:
The economy does matter. But a good leader would understand his (scientific) limits and listen to expert advisors (not Faux News). A bad decision can cost thousands of lives. He doesn't project the level of understanding he should have at this point.

It's not easy being president, nobody said it was. Damned if you do, damned if you don't; everybody is an expert and a Monday morning quarterback.
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Exactly, nobody really knows what the impact here is going to be.

Imo this hysteria has done nothing but ruin everyone’s retirement and give the media something to pimp.

Viruses happen, people die, sad reality of civilization. It’s been happening to since the inception of humanity.
 
FFP said:
Only if you realize that they probably had 5-10 times that number hospitalized in just a few days (80% mild, 20% hospital-level, 10% ICU, 3% die, if I remember the Chinese numbers correctly).
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Well that's what i've said previously; on an individual level, when your resourses are overwhelmed it must be horrible but epidemiologically it's not that bad.
 
Wkrdoc said:
Exactly, nobody really knows what the impact here is going to be.

Imo this hysteria has done nothing but ruin everyone’s retirement and give the media something to pimp.

Viruses happen, people die, sad reality of civilization. It’s been happening to since the inception of humanity.
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You're wrong (and I try to be conservative with this impolite expression). This could have been Spanish flu level, had it not been for the fact that we are 100 years later (with all its benefits).

It's pure/easy math: any virus than grows exponentially and kills 3% of infected is trouble. We got lucky with the swine flu (H1N1, now part of the yearly flu season), we may get lucky with this one, too.

That doesn't change the fact that we will have been LUCKY, not GOOD. One day, that will end, if we're not careful; and that's why civilized nations keep pandemic experts/preparation in their budgets, the way we keep a military. It's not a question of IF, it's a question of WHEN.
 
FFP said:
This could have been Spanish flu level
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IDK about that. It appears that the majority of severe cases are in those with a decent chance of dying in the next 12mo anyways.

COVID-19 mortality rate for octogenarians =10-15%

All cause mortality for octogenarians = 8-18%
 
FFP said:
You're wrong. This could have been Spanish flu level, had it not been for the fact that we are 100 years later (with all its benefits).

It's pure/easy math: any virus than grows exponentially and kills 3% of infected is trouble. We got lucky with the swine flu (H1N1, now part of the yearly flu season), we may get lucky with this one, too.

That doesn't change the fact that we will have been LUCKY, not GOOD. One day, that will end, if we're not careful; and that's why civilized nations keep pandemic experts/preparation in their budgets, the way we keep a military.
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Well we are much better than in 1918.
I have no doubt this virus is at the same level of potential harm as the spanish flu but our knowledge and means to prevent it's spread are much greater.
 
caligas said:
www.cnn.com

Here's what could really sink the global economy: $19 trillion in risky corporate debt

Companies have spent the years since the global financial crisis binging on debt. Now, as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to push the world into recession, the bill could come due — exacerbating damage to the economy and feeding a meltdown in financial markets.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
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FFP said:
You're wrong (and I try to be conservative with this impolite expression). This could have been Spanish flu level, had it not been for the fact that we are 100 years later (with all its benefits).

It's pure/easy math: any virus than grows exponentially and kills 3% of infected is trouble. We got lucky with the swine flu (H1N1, now part of the yearly flu season), we may get lucky with this one, too.

That doesn't change the fact that we will have been LUCKY, not GOOD. One day, that will end, if we're not careful; and that's why civilized nations keep pandemic experts/preparation in their budgets, the way we keep a military. It's not a question of IF, it's a question of WHEN.
[/
caligas said:
www.cnn.com

Here's what could really sink the global economy: $19 trillion in risky corporate debt

Companies have spent the years since the global financial crisis binging on debt. Now, as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to push the world into recession, the bill could come due — exacerbating damage to the economy and feeding a meltdown in financial markets.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
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Scariest part for me is a chain reaction, which has happened with the oil industry

Wars aren’t fought with tanks and troops these days, they’re fought economically
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Scariest part for me is a chain reaction, which has happened with the oil industry

Wars aren’t fought with tanks and troops these days, they’re fought economically
 
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Wkrdoc said:
Scariest part for me is a chain reaction, which has happened with the oil industry

Wars aren’t fought with tanks and troops these days, they’re fought economically
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Even with the best of intentions, any major event can have a domino effect. That's why I keep saying that I wouldn't rush into the stock market until it hits much lower numbers (i.e. margin of safety).
 
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Scariest part for me is that I'm seeing people in this thread, just today, still thinking this thing is not that bad and we're overacting.
 
caligas said:
www.cnn.com

Here's what could really sink the global economy: $19 trillion in risky corporate debt

Companies have spent the years since the global financial crisis binging on debt. Now, as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to push the world into recession, the bill could come due — exacerbating damage to the economy and feeding a meltdown in financial markets.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
Click to expand...

If I remember right during the last recession, case load dropped drastically. A bunch of my colleagues during the 2008/2009 recession saw decline in their work load and their paycheck. If 2020 brings about another recession and covid19 not going away, there will be a double whammy of people not having insurances and old people not wanting to get their knees fixed. How will hospitals and physicians survive this, I’m not sure.
 
Mman said:
Just stop. The list of brilliant and legendary investors that ridicule technical analysis is long and distinguished. I believe Buffett once said he realized it didn't work when he turned the chart upside down and got the same answer.

It is literally pseudoscience according to academics in the area. Suggesting people who don't understand it are just not intelligent enough or experienced enough is hilarious.
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In other words, if you don't understand it it must not be true. Curious, do you consult Warren Buffett when you start a difficult case? By following your logic a world renown expert on fundamentals of a company and long term investing must also be an expert in completely unrelated topics. You do know all the "experts" were wrong and we have a round globe, right?

I'm not saying all those garbage equations and formulas can be plugged into every chart and give you mostly correct answers. It won't. But if you're saying trendlines, testing the breakout, filling the gap, dead cat bounces etc etc etc are all hokus pokus then it would be impossible for me to convince big ego doctors they simply are wrong. There are situations that absolutely scream what the company and stock price will be doing. Technical Analysis and more what I look at, specific chart patterns and movement, is by nature a very addictive field. Being able to patiently wait out that perfect chart killing without feeling the need to bet on every single other movement you see I'd guess probably takes down many of the very few traders that actually do have a feel for it, the ones not just plugging in a bunch of mindless TA formulas from a video, in the same way addictive gambling takes down all gamblers.

Do you really think it's coincidence that a stock just cruising along suddenly begins diving over a few days for absolutely no known reason, no news, no market turmoil, no acute technical correcting, nothing? Are you actually shocked when that company after a week or two of this announce something horrible? The chart was screaming this to you all week or so. Insiders have been making moves on information you don't have and it shows in the chart. There are infinite number of situations where the chart of past is telling you the future, but your ego will never allow it, so that's fine. I have no need to convince you just as long as you aren't cutting my head off for telling you the world actually is round.
 
Wkrdoc said:
Exactly, nobody really knows what the impact here is going to be.

Imo this hysteria has done nothing but ruin everyone’s retirement and give the media something to pimp.

Viruses happen, people die, sad reality of civilization. It’s been happening to since the inception of humanity.
Click to expand...

From a historical perspective, true.

From a 21st-century perspective, with the unconscious assumption that if we get really sick, we'll at least have access to pressors, a vent, abx, imaging, etc., it's very frightening.

Important to remember that while we humans might be the most intelligent of all natural powers, we are no match for the mighty forces of nature.
 
marr65 said:
If I remember right during the last recession, case load dropped drastically. A bunch of my colleagues during the 2008/2009 recession saw decline in their work load and their paycheck. If 2020 brings about another recession and covid19 not going away, there will be a double whammy of people not having insurances and old people not wanting to get their knees fixed. How will hospitals and physicians survive this, I’m not sure.
Click to expand...


That was not my experience in 2008/9. If there was a blip, I didn’t notice it. This will be worse.
 
marr65 said:
If I remember right during the last recession, case load dropped drastically. A bunch of my colleagues during the 2008/2009 recession saw decline in their work load and their paycheck. If 2020 brings about another recession and covid19 not going away, there will be a double whammy of people not having insurances and old people not wanting to get their knees fixed. How will hospitals and physicians survive this, I’m not sure.
Click to expand...
What a tragedy! People actually thinking twice before getting some semi-useless elective procedure? Shocker!
 
Interesting play yesterday evening.

Trump put a halt to interest on student loans held by the federal government.
I’d say that’s a generous move from the old man.
Thank you, President.

Ok, the Trump derangement syndrome can now recommence.
 
Spikebd said:
Interesting play yesterday evening.

Trump put a halt to interest on student loans held by the federal government.
I’d say that’s a generous move from the old man.
Thank you, President.

Ok, the Trump derangement syndrome can now recommence.
Click to expand...

His executive order won't actually change your monthly payment. You still have to pay in full but it goes entirely toward principal. That's nice, but it doesn't really help if youre unable to actually make the full payment. Fyi, dems were requesting temporary payment freeze or partial forgiveness.
 
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