The ultimate COVID thread

[BLADEMDA]

Of the 874 confirmed cases in Australia, 7 have died from COVID-19. More than 115,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.

This graph shows the number of confirmed cases by notification date. Interpret the most recently reported new cases shown in the graph with caution as there can be delays in reporting.


View text description and larger image of 'New and cumulative COVID-19 cases in Australia by notification date' graphic
To date, most confirmed cases are considered to have been acquired overseas although a large proportion are still under investigation to understand the source of infection.

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[BLADEMDA]

There is no new science in this. It's all very well known, at least for a month now.

It may be new for republicans... Please stop watching Faux News.

My point is the data is showing death rates in modern nations/first world of less than 1 percent.

 

[Mad Jack]

Where do you get those numbers from? The virus has been around for 4 months and has only caused 10k deaths..
This sounds like the Ebola thread where random numbers were thrown around discointing any evidence...

Ps: how easy it is to dump on the chinese? They probably missed the initial flare that could of made a big difference but all reports point to them controlling the outbreak

I follow this obsessively. The Imperial College predicts 2.2 million deaths with current control measures. One analysis used their data and extrapolated what would happen if our system became overwhelmed in a manner similar to Wuhan, which had the highest death rates due to individuals going untreated, and predicted 5.7 million total dead in that scenario

 

[deleted171991]

My point is the data is showing death rates in modern nations/first world of less than 1 percent.

Irrelevant, my dear Watson. 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million. And that's if our systems don't become overwhelmed by waves of patients. In which case it may be 10.

The solution is testing, testing, testing, paranoid tracking of cases and social isolation. Then we need to figure out how to properly test for immunity (the current Ig tests are unreliable for that), and let those people out to work. Then a vaccine (1 year from now, optimistically).

 

[Mad Jack]

My point is the data is showing death rates in modern nations/first world of less than 1 percent.

It takes between three and four weeks after initial infection to die of COVID. It's a very slow killer, so we won't see the true death rates for about a month

 

[Mad Jack]

Irrelevant, my dear Watson. 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million. And that's if our systems don't become overwhelmed by waves of patients. In which case it may be 10.

Even at 60% infected, one percent dead you're looking at just shy of 2 million dead.

 

[pgg]

Is this when China becomes the new world superpower? It probably already has been for years

Yeah, a "superpower" with a reach limited to a couple hundred miles from their border. Throwing some money at Africa. Building artificial islands in the South China Sea so they could compete with the likes of powerhouses like Vietnam. So intimidated by South Korea that they put up with Best Korea's shenanigans. Unable to bring Hong Kong and Taiwan to heel. C'mon.

China was ****ed before COVID-19. They're not somehow magically less ****ed now.

Superpower? Just ... no.

 

[deleted171991]

Yeah, a "superpower" with a reach limited to a couple hundred miles from their border. Throwing some money at Africa. Building artificial islands in the South China Sea so they could compete with the likes of powerhouses like Vietnam. So intimidated by South Korea that they put up with Best Korea's shenanigans. Unable to bring Hong Kong and Taiwan to heel. C'mon.

China was ****ed before COVID-19. They're not somehow magically less ****ed now.

Superpower? Just ... no.

They may not be a superpower yet, but we may become a "has been power" if this doesn't get under control.

The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order

China is maneuvering for international leadership during the coronavirus crisis as the United States falters.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[Postictal Raiden]

When you don't flatten the curve, you end up with excess people dying from lack of care. That excess for this virus would be an additional 2-3% on top of the 2-3% it's already taking out, and is why Wuhan had a death rate of around 5.7%, more than double the rest of the country

Exactly. That's what many people are forgetting. The ripple effect. When hospitals/ICU's reach max capacity, how are we gonna care for other non-COVID critical patients. From my own prospective I can tell you that our NeuroICU is already full to its capacity with stroke/status epilepticus/MG exacerbation/GBS/etc. I don't know what will happen to such patients when beds become filled with COVID-related cases.

 

[deleted171991]

Exactly. That's what many people are forgetting. The ripple effect. When hospitals/ICU's reach max capacity, how are we gonna care for other non-COVID critical patients. From my own prospective I can tell you that our NeuroICU is already full to its capacity with stroke/status epilepticus/MG exacerbation/GBS/etc. I don't know what will happen to such patients when beds become filled with COVID-related cases.

Naturally, they will select.

The irony is that the worst hit will be the dense blue states on the Coasts, hence the splendid WH quasi-indiference to anything but PR.

Opinion | Call Trump’s News Conferences What They Are: Propaganda (Published 2020)

Then contrast them with the leadership shown by Andrew Cuomo, Justin Trudeau and Angela Merkel.

www.nytimes.com

 

[tennessee2244]

Naturally, they will select.

The irony is that the worst hit will be the dense blue states on the Coasts, hence the splendid WH quasi-indiference to anything but PR. The only one who keeps impressing is Pence.

Your incredible hatred towards the President is laughable.

 

[deleted171991]

DOJ seeks new emergency powers amid coronavirus pandemic

One of the requests to Congress would allow the department to petition a judge to indefinitely detain someone during an emergency.

www.politico.com

Exclusive: Rich Russians Are Hoarding Ventilators to Protect Themselves Against the Coronavirus - The Moscow Times

The family is one of Russia’s richest.

www.themoscowtimes.com

I bet rich Americans have been doing the same.

 

[nimbus]

Iceland is Doing Science — ~50% of People with COVID-19 Not Showing Symptoms, ~50% Have Very Moderate Cold Symptoms [UPDATED]

Science: do it. Iceland has decided to jump right into proper scientific methodology in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than "panic now and evaluate later." The country, which has followed similar social distancing strategies as other European nations, has been conducting a random...

cleantechnica.com

Importantly, approximately half of the people who tested positive for COVID-19 are non-symptomatic, according to Gudnason as reported by BuzzFeed. The other half is mostly showing “very moderate cold-like symptoms.”

Is that supposed to be good news or bad news?

 

[deleted171991]

Is that supposed to be good news or bad news?

Depending on whether your eyeglasses are colored pink red or blue.

 

[chocomorsel]

Your incredible hatred towards the President is laughable.

Do you really think this president loves you or cares an ounce about you? Or is capable of loving anyone other than himself and whatever gives him power and money? Plenty of people hate him and his narcissistic ways.

 

[deleted171991]

Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus, in one chart

Italy tried to stem its outbreak, belatedly. We’re on a similar course.

www.vox.com

"What’s scary about Italy’s experience is that Italy wasn’t exactly passive in its response to the virus. The country did act, quarantining a dozen towns in northern regions on February 23, urging the public to engage in social distancing, and ordering the closure of all schools nationwide on March 4.

But case numbers kept growing. On March 8, Italy locked down the north of the country, and on March 9 it extended the lockdown to the whole country. Now, it looks like these extreme efforts might have slowed the rate of growth of cases. On March 15, there were 3,590 new cases. On March 16, 3,233. On the 17th, 3,526. And on the 18th, 4,207. That’s not exponential growth, suggesting the lockdown really did help — but those still aren’t good numbers, especially when Italy’s hospitals are already overwhelmed.

"Italy has been devastated by the virus because the action it took was just a little too moderate, a little too restrained, and a little too slow. The country took measures that were substantial and costly but nonetheless insufficient to actually bring the epidemic to a halt. (This was the message hammered home in a recent project where Italians sent video messages to themselves 10 days ago.)"

And another quote from the same article:

"Each of those positive tests, then, reflects an infection up to two weeks ago. The situation has already worsened for the two weeks or so since those new cases were infected. For much of that time, those 1,000 people have been out and about in the world, potentially infecting others. In a population not taking strong social distancing measures, it is estimated that on average they will have infected two or three others. Some of those newly infected will themselves have started infecting others.

Italy took strong measures. Its mistake was not that it didn’t react at all — it’s that it kept being a little bit behind the ball. Each measure was appropriate to the situation the Italians observed. But the real situation was always much worse. So things kept worsening until they pulled out all the stops with a countrywide lockdown.

“It will always seem that the best way to address [the virus] would be to be doing something that looks like it might be an overreaction,” Fauci said. “It isn’t an overreaction. It’s reaction we feel is commensurate [with what] is actually going on in reality.”

To break away from Italy’s trajectory, we have to respond with stronger measures than Italy. We have to respond in ways that feel like an overreaction. In the past few days, we’ve seen the first US steps that are stronger than Italy’s responses at a similar point in the outbreak — steps like the Bay Area’s shelter-in-place order, the follow-up extending it to all of California, New York’s similar order Friday, and state orders shutting down restaurants and bars. That’s what it will take to give ourselves a chance at a different curve."

 

[Mman]

What companies or sectors are you liking at these prices

I picked up some MGM at 7.00. While they certainly won't get bailed out, I can't imagine why this temporary setback would chop like 80% off their market cap. Banking stocks are looking mighty cheap. I also bought back some HEI for $55 that I had previously sold in the $130s 6 months ago.

I also look at some of the options prices as kinda crazy. Berkshire B currently going for $170 a share which is way off recent highs of $229 a month ago. You can sell puts for April 17 for 140 at $2.84 or 145 at $4.10. That means someone will pay me $284 for a single 100 share contract at $140 strike in 4 weeks or $410 at $145 strike. The odds Berkshire drops another 21% from here in the next 4 weeks seems pretty remote and if it did drop more than that it would seem to be a screaming bargain since they have so much cash laying around Buffett will just start rebuying shares before it could fall more.

Apple is $228 a share and their Apr 17 puts are $2.20 at 150 strike and $1.68 at 140 strike. It would be hard to see Apple falling down to $150 or $140 a share and yet someone will pay you $2.20 a share to insure the risk it doesn't fall less than that in the next 4 weeks. But even if it did fall that much, is anyone telling me they wouldn't buy apple for $150 a share????

 

[deleted171991]

The odds Berkshire drops another 21% from here in the next 4 weeks seems pretty remote

Wanna bet? Less than 4 weeks. That's how "remote" it is. This is far from over. There is no blood in the street yet, no panicked selling from Main Street. It's all institutional.

The moment NYC becomes overwhelmed and the images are broadcast, that's when it will begin. At some point, they will either close the NYSE or it will be a bloodbath. BRK won't be an exception. It's the opposite of "a rising tide lifts all boats".

BRK.B will drop under 140, possibly even under 100-120 before this is over. I still have some bought for 60s during the last recession.

 

[MoMoGesiologist]

Do you really think this president loves you or cares an ounce about you? Or is capable of loving anyone other than himself and whatever gives him power and money? Plenty of people hate him and his narcissistic ways.

Why did my post get lumped in with that?

 

[anbuitachi]

Wanna bet? Less than 4 weeks. That's how "remote" it is. This is far from over. There is no blood in the street yet, no panicked selling from Main Street. It's all institutional.

The moment NYC becomes overwhelmed and the images are broadcast, that's when it will begin. At some point, they will either close the NYSE or it will be a bloodbath. BRK won't be an exception. It's the opposite of "a rising tide lifts all boats".

BRK.B will drop under 140, possibly even under 100-120 before this is over. I still have some bought for 60s during the last recession.

i think what will happen is trump will say screw it, no more quarantine, just let this play out. and stock will rise.

 

[chocomorsel]

Why did my post get lumped in with that?

An error. I must have meant to reply to you at one point, and forgot and then it showed up as my computer saved it. Who were you telling to go away anyway? May have been the same person. I am too lazy to look thru these 21 pages.

 

[BIGphysician]

I rode out my personal investment account till about 23K on the dow then got out. As far as 401Ks havent touched then, however, really strongly considering selling to USD and just keeping it in there, I can see this getting a lot worse. I've been learning options trading and putting some "puts" in which makes you able to make money when the market goes down.

 

[Mman]

Wanna bet? Less than 4 weeks. That's how "remote" it is. This is far from over. There is no blood in the street yet, no panicked selling from Main Street. It's all institutional.

The moment NYC becomes overwhelmed and the images are broadcast, that's when it will begin. At some point, they will either close the NYSE or it will be a bloodbath. BRK won't be an exception. It's the opposite of "a rising tide lifts all boats".

BRK.B will drop under 140, possibly even under 100-120 before this is over. I still have some bought for 60s during the last recession.

you can bet on it via options trades via your broker. The thing with Berkshire is that Buffett is the one doing the buying with repurchases from all the cash he has laying around if it drops too much. It's already below what he considers intrinsic value based on his previous repurchases.

 

[deleted171991]

you can bet on it via options trades via your broker. The thing with Berkshire is that Buffett is the one doing the buying with repurchases from all the cash he has laying around if it drops too much. It's already below what he considers intrinsic value based on his previous repurchases.

Thought about that, too, but he won't waste his cash when he has better investments than BRK.

 

[BLADEMDA]

My Predictions:

1. Immunoglobulin treatment available by June. This will decrease the ICU admissions by 50% or more. Death rates will plummet.
2. Antiviral therapy- This is a longer shot but likely 1-2 antivirals will show some effectiveness against Wuhan Virus
3. Combine 1 and 2 leads to a death rate under 15,000 for the USA by the Fall
4. Vaccine will be ready for phase 2 testing by late Fall. By December/Jan a viable vaccine will be in production.
5. By April 01, 2021 the S and P 500 will be back to 2800 and the crisis will have ended.

I know many of you think the world has ended. This is how it felt in December of 2008 when the entire country was in melt down mode. December 2008 wasn't the "low" and neither is the current s and p of 2300. The stock market will go lower probably in the 1800-2000 range. I predict for those that buy near the low profits will be in the 50% range by April 2021.

 

[crash2500]

Why do you think an immunoglobulin treatment will be available by June? Seems like you're just thinking of scenarios that you would like to see happen. Aka you sound a lot like our president currently

 

[BLADEMDA]

Drugmaker Takeda Sees Speedy Approval of Coronavirus Treatment

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. said its blood plasma-derived therapy against coronavirus currently in development has the potential to be among the first approved treatments for the deadly pathogen.

www.bloomberg.com

Drugs from antibodies of Covid-19 survivors – DW – 03/19/2020

Aside from a Covid-19 vaccine, antibodies from recovered patients could provide a short-term "passive immunization" to the disease. A German immunologist saved thousands of lives with the method 100 years ago.

www.dw.com

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

that is not true

It is true. Time will answer that one.

 

[crash2500]

Drugmaker Takeda Sees Speedy Approval of Coronavirus Treatment

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. said its blood plasma-derived therapy against coronavirus currently in development has the potential to be among the first approved treatments for the deadly pathogen.

www.bloomberg.com

Drugs from antibodies of Covid-19 survivors – DW – 03/19/2020

Aside from a Covid-19 vaccine, antibodies from recovered patients could provide a short-term "passive immunization" to the disease. A German immunologist saved thousands of lives with the method 100 years ago.

www.dw.com

Here is a quote from the article you linked...

'We don’t have to demonstrate safety, we just have to agree with the regulatory agencies on how to demonstrate that the titer of antibody present in the final product is sufficient to be effective against the disease,” Kim told Bloomberg in a phone interview. She said the response from the FDA and European Medicines Agency would be key to the timing for approval, which could be as early as in nine months.'

9 months....

 

[BLADEMDA]

Why are Korea’s Covid-19 death rates so low? - Asia Times

South Korea has the dubious distinction of suffering the second-highest number of Covid-19 infections after China – but can also boast the lowest

asiatimes.com

While, 7,478 cases were confirmed in South Korea by the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) on Monday, only 51 have died.

That is a mortality rate of 0.68%

 

[Mman]

Thought about that, too, but he won't waste his cash when he has better investments than BRK.

in which case he'd be propping up each individual share of BRK even more than just straight rebuying. Either way it is quite unlikely to drop significantly farther. I mean the book value of the firm last quarter was more than it's share price right now and something like $65B in cash is still $65B in cash no matter how much the share price falls. Just snipping out the cash from calculations, the value of the rest of the business has been devalued from $495B to $350B with this recent crash, or 30% down. To get to $140 a share it would value everything else at $275B. And that doesn't even mention that quite a few other things included in book value cannot realistically drop as fast as the share price either.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Here is a quote from the article you linked...

'We don’t have to demonstrate safety, we just have to agree with the regulatory agencies on how to demonstrate that the titer of antibody present in the final product is sufficient to be effective against the disease,” Kim told Bloomberg in a phone interview. She said the response from the FDA and European Medicines Agency would be key to the timing for approval, which could be as early as in nine months.'

9 months....

The "approval" is based on how bad the disease is in the USA. If the ICUs get over-loaded the FDA will approve that treatment the next day.

 

[Mman]

Time will answer that one.

I mean sure, the entire field of economics could be wrong and you and some random loser on Zero Hedge could be right. As you said, time will tell.

 

[deleted171991]

The "approval" is based on how bad the disease is in the USA. If the ICUs get over-loaded the FDA will approve that treatment the next day.

Only if the supreme leader orders it. Not based on science.

Good doctors don't treat patients based on the politics of the day.

 

[crash2500]

The "approval" is based on how bad the disease is in the USA. If the ICUs get over-loaded the FDA will approve that treatment the next day.

Sure, you couple be right. But you're just guessing and there's no basis in facts.

DJT, is that you?!

 

[BLADEMDA]

Even at 60% infected, one percent dead you're looking at just shy of 2 million dead.

Incorrect. If we use that 30% of the population becomes infected with Covid 19 and a 0.68% mortality rate the data comes out to 612,000 deaths. That is fewer deaths than in 1918 (the USA's population was about 103 million) when approximately 675,000 Americans died

 

[crash2500]

Incorrect. If we use that 30% of the population becomes infected wth Covid 19 and a 0.68% mortality rate the data comes out to 612,000 deaths. That is fewer deaths than in 1918 (the USA's population) when approximately 675,000 Ameicans died

Again, your numbers are based on nothing!

 

[BLADEMDA]

Again, your numbers are based on nothing!

A modeling study by researchers at Imperial College London, posted online on 16 March, concluded that even a mitigated epidemic would still overwhelm health care systems and cause at least 250,000 deaths in the United Kingdom and more than 1.1 million in the United States. Suppressing the virus by combining all available measures, including school closings and social distancing of the entire population, is the “only viable strategy at the current time,” the team wrote.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Again, your numbers are based on nothing!

Not true. My numbers are based on the facts not hysteria. On a % basis of the population more Americans died from the Spanish flu of 1918 than will die from the Wuhan Virus.

The experts have concluded that even with all of measures in place there will still be deaths from the Wuhan Virus. I am using a 0.68% mortality number which may be a bit on the high side for the USA.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Here is a quote from the article you linked...

'We don’t have to demonstrate safety, we just have to agree with the regulatory agencies on how to demonstrate that the titer of antibody present in the final product is sufficient to be effective against the disease,” Kim told Bloomberg in a phone interview. She said the response from the FDA and European Medicines Agency would be key to the timing for approval, which could be as early as in nine months.'

9 months....

Donald Trump wants to get re-elected and he will personally get this treatment approved if needed. The economy must turn around by September or he is finished.

 

[deleted171991]

Donald Trump wants to get re-elected and he will personally get this treatment approved if needed. The economy must turn around by September or he is finished.

There is a huge difference between the right PR and the right thing. He lacks the empathy (and his followers the IQ) to understand the difference.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

My Predictions:

1. Immunoglobulin treatment available by June. This will decrease the ICU admissions by 50% or more. Death rates will plummet.
2. Antiviral therapy- This is a longer shot but likely 1-2 antivirals will show some effectiveness against Wuhan Virus
3. Combine 1 and 2 leads to a death rate under 15,000 for the USA by the Fall
4. Vaccine will be ready for phase 2 testing by late Fall. By December/Jan a viable vaccine will be in production.
5. By April 01, 2021 the S and P 500 will be back to 2800 and the crisis will have ended.

I know many of you think the world has ended. This is how it felt in December of 2008 when the entire country was in melt down mode. December 2008 wasn't the "low" and neither is the current s and p of 2300. The stock market will go lower probably in the 1800-2000 range. I predict for those that buy near the low profits will be in the 50% range by April 2021.

We are a lot worse off than 2008 in the respect that the government bandade container is extremely low or empty. It won't be as easy to kick the can down the road this time. For all this talk that we have the strongest economy in history, facts don't really back that up. What in hell is a Consumer Economy? We borrow money at all levels, more and more, and then we buy stuff. Just because every idiot in TV says that's good, you don't have to believe them. If we balanced budgets and let markets determine interest rates this facade economy would crumble tomorrow. That doesn't sound strong to me. We may kick the can again like 08, but it will be much more difficult everytime.

 

[tennessee2244]

Do you really think this president loves you or cares an ounce about you? Or is capable of loving anyone other than himself and whatever gives him power and money? Plenty of people hate him and his narcissistic ways.

Plenty of people hated Andrew Jackson too. Sometimes the haters and losers just can't stand themselves.

 

[Mad Jack]

Incorrect. If we use that 30% of the population becomes infected with Covid 19 and a 0.68% mortality rate the data comes out to 612,000 deaths. That is fewer deaths than in 1918 (the USA's population was about 103 million) when approximately 675,000 Americans died

Almost every reliable epidemiological estimate has it at 60-75% maximum penetration. 30% is wishful thinking. And 1% is the lower threshold I've seen from reputable epidemiologists. 1.1 million is our best estimate with full waves of quarantine mitigation that lock down the country 2/3 of the time for up to 18 months. That won't happen, no way in hell.

 

[Mman]

Almost every reliable epidemiological estimate has it at 60-75% maximum penetration. 30% is wishful thinking. And 1% is the lower threshold I've seen from reputable epidemiologists. 1.1 million is our best estimate with full waves of quarantine mitigation that lock down the country 2/3 of the time for up to 18 months. That won't happen, no way in hell.

The thing that nobody can model is what happens to healthcare overall if the system gets overwhelmed. We simply don't know what will happen to things like mortality from cancer, heart disease, trauma, etc. if health systems are too overwhelmed to treat the patients under current standards of care. A lot of smart people are making wild ass guesses as to what will happen so we should take anything with a large grain of salt.

 

[Mad Jack]

The thing that nobody can model is what happens to healthcare overall if the system gets overwhelmed. We simply don't know what will happen to things like mortality from cancer, heart disease, trauma, etc. if health systems are too overwhelmed to treat the patients under current standards of care. A lot of smart people are making wild ass guesses as to what will happen so we should take anything with a large grain of salt.

We do though, it happened in Wuhan.

 

[Mman]

We do though, it happened in Wuhan.

I would not extrapolate much of anything about China to the US.

 

[Mad Jack]

I would not extrapolate much of anything about China to the US.

Their health care system hasn't as backwards as most Americans would imagine. Look to Italy, then

 

[Mman]

Their health care system hasn't as backwards as most Americans would imagine. Look to Italy, then

we can look at all sorts of things. The simple point, though, is that we just don't know what will happen if we have 50,000,000 or 100,000,000 cases. Nobody knows. There is nothing from any other country that can even approximate that. I mean Italy and China have like a combined 140,000 cases.

 

[BLADEMDA]

This stock is going up 30% or more next week: DHR

Anyone who bought it last week ahead of the big news today will make a lot of money.

FDA grants 'emergency use' coronavirus test that can deliver results in 45 minutes

Cepheid has received emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration to use its rapid molecular test for point-of-care patients that can detect coronavirus in 45 minutes. This is the first coronavirus that can be conducted entirely at the point of care for patients and deliver...

www.cnbc.com