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deleted171991
That's God's punishment for Asians everywhere, for voting Democrat in the US.We are not different from Japan, Korea, and China where it is already happening.
Pray, and you may be spared!
That's God's punishment for Asians everywhere, for voting Democrat in the US.We are not different from Japan, Korea, and China where it is already happening.
We're very different from China.We are not different from Japan, Korea, and China where it is already happening.
We're very different from China.
Japan and Korea are thoroughly modern countries though. If everything goes to hell there, hold on to your ass, going to be a wild ride.
That may be true, but there will be far more fear when this actually comes here, which it will.Pure fear. That’s why the market is crashing
It already has. Look at South Korea. They can't control this thing at all. Or Italy.We're very different from China.
Japan and Korea are thoroughly modern countries though. If everything goes to hell there, hold on to your ass, going to be a wild ride.
Mild in terms of mortality, sure. But 20% of pts in one study require hospitalization and 5% require critical care. Those are huge numbers.This is crazy. Covid-19 is very mild compared to SARS. With warmer weather, relatively less dense population, and good healthcare access in the States, its impact on economy should be transient. However, the panic can be very disruptive.
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I just don’t see the need for hysteria, but if you want to join in saying the sky is falling...
My prediction for 6mo from now:
“Corona what? Oh, you mean that virus thingy?”
Nah I reckon anyone who gets it will remember
Shouldn't a soon to be or recent retiree have adjusted his asset allocation to substantially reduce exposure to equities? (Unless the size of the portfolio was so large, and his need so modest, that his "retirement" funds were less for retirement and more for a long term wealth transfer to descendants, legacy, philanthropy, etc. Which is itself not a problem at all as that investment horizon is decades away.)
Don't you agree that the market know everything we know about COVID19 at this point? Every prognostication or expectation voiced in this thread, as of today, is priced into the market, as of today.
If people feel compelled to "do something" and actually do something, their asset allocation was not appropriate for them a month ago. Anyone adding money to the market now is timing the market, and we know (we know!) that over the long term that market timing is a losing strategy. Those funds they're plowing in now to take advantage of this correction should have been invested a month or a year ago when they first became available, at whatever ratio of equity/non-equity that their asset allocation called for.
We've been talking about the possibility that an extended period of subpar equity and fixed income returns could be upon us for a full decade now.
There is nothing for me to do here except to keep adding money to my accounts, same as every other month, same % to equity and same % to non-equity. Perhaps rebalance if things get too far away from the desired AA.
They still get 2 weeks in quarantineOver 80% of cases are mild.
Problem with this virus is that the mortality rate seems to hit that sweet spot between the flu, which has such a low overall mortality rate that we barely think about it, and something like MERS with a 30% mortality rate that meant it was hard to be out in public while you were infectious. You were simply too sick to spread it
I think the key is to watch the 15 to 40 year old bracket, and figure out what the mortality ratio is in these patients.
A 3 percent mortality ratio isn't bad for the economy, if the victims are primarily non-productive youth and the aged. However, if this turns into a 1918 H1N1 type of virus, with a big spike in young, productive individuals, the economy could take a real hit.
My take on the stock market reaction is that it was heavily stressed to the upside, and the algos, and dark pools, were primed for any excuse to take it down. It was inevitable that there was going to be a "correction" before the election, there just needed to be a trigger to start the cascade of taking out everybody's stops.
Even if there is a bigger drop ahead, this is a phenomenal buying opportunity. I've been 100 percent cash for a month or more, and I started buying back in before the Friday close.
This may be my last active trading event, as I finally caught up to where I needed to be, and I'm ready to move on to other things.
Good luck to all, and enjoy the buying opportunity that is here. Keep some dry powder, and of the market tanks again next week, buy more. That's what I will be doing. And I won't be stopping out on these buys. They will be long-term, buy and hold, purchases. Something I haven't done for 5 or 6 years now.
I've been 100 percent cash for a month or more
A 3 percent mortality ratio isn't bad for the economy, if the victims are primarily non-productive youth and the aged. However, if this turns into a 1918 H1N1 type of virus, with a big spike in young, productive individuals, the economy could take a real hit.
The mortality rate doesn't determine the hit that the economy takes. Supply chain disruption, businesses closing, schools closing, workers staying home, etc all are more important a single number.
QE. Interest rate cuts. China will do the same. The world will be awash with fiat currency and by summer that will boost the economies. Yes, we will see 2, maybe even 3 quarters of zero economic growth or even negative numbers but the market will look forward once a vaccine is announced. This will be a huge rally to end all rallies with so much stimulus behind it.
Either Covid 19 takes down the economy, unlikely, or we recover like every other time with a huge spike in the markets.
The 10 year bond market is at HISTORIC lows. This means stocks are worth much more today vs low yielding bonds. But, we need to get the economy moving again to spark that rally. Only a vaccine or effective anti-viral treatment ends this fear and spurs the markets to new, all time highs by the time Bernie gets the nomination.
Let history be your guide. Every single time we get these panics they are buying opportunities. I have no idea if the market will drop another 10-15% from here but you should be BUYING on these crashes not selling.
Optimistic, much?QE. Interest rate cuts. China will do the same. The world will be awash with fiat currency and by summer that will boost the economies. Yes, we will see 2, maybe even 3 quarters of zero economic growth or even negative numbers but the market will look forward once a vaccine is announced. This will be a huge rally to end all rallies with so much stimulus behind it.
Either Covid 19 takes down the economy, unlikely, or we recover like every other time with a huge spike in the markets.
The 10 year bond market is at HISTORIC lows. This means stocks are worth much more today vs low yielding bonds. But, we need to get the economy moving again to spark that rally. Only a vaccine or effective anti-viral treatment ends this fear and spurs the markets to new, all time highs by the time Bernie gets the nomination.
Let history be your guide. Every single time we get these panics they are buying opportunities. I have no idea if the market will drop another 10-15% from here but you should be BUYING on these crashes not selling.
Really - your 5yo daughter dies, and you stay productive ?Supply chains don't get disrupted because 5-year-old and 80-year-old people are dying. They get disrupted when productive people start dying in significant numbers.
My modeling is using a overall 10% mortality rate, in the hardest hit countries, but closer to 3% in the productive age group. These are countries where labor is cheap, and workers are replaceable. If the 3% number ticks up, that's when we can expect disruptions that will be harder to recover from.
Which is why I said, it's not the overall mortality that I care about. It's not particularly important. If we see a mortality distribution like we did in 1918, then watch out.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It got awfully quiet in here awfully fast.
Luckily children fared very well so far. I have a three year old and have been very concerned if I get infected.Really - your 5yo daughter dies, and you stay productive ?
Watch what Tim Cook had to say about Apple's supply chain. His data, out of China, suggests the government has successfully put a damper on this thing, and they aren't seeing continued logarithmic growth.
Apple has little reason to lie, unless the situation in China is absolutely catastrophic. You can bet Apple was buying stock back, hand over fist, on this dip.
very sorry to hear.My father killed my grandmother, my mother, and himself, or they were all killed in a home invasion, depending on which Sheriff Officer you believe, and I was back full time, in the OR, within 2 weeks.
Supply chains don't get disrupted because 5-year-old and 80-year-old people are dying. They get disrupted when productive people start dying in significant numbers.
Supply chains have ALREADY been disrupted. It's cities being placed on lockdown and people not going to work.Supply chains don't get disrupted because 5-year-old and 80-year-old people are dying. They get disrupted when productive people start dying in significant numbers.
My modeling is using a overall 10% mortality rate, in the hardest hit countries, but closer to 3% in the productive age group. These are countries where labor is cheap, and workers are replaceable. If the 3% number ticks up, that's when we can expect disruptions that will be harder to recover from.
Which is why I said, it's not the overall mortality that I care about. It's not particularly important. If we see a mortality distribution like we did in 1918, then watch out.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Supply chains have ALREADY been disrupted. It's cities being placed on lockdown and people not going to work.
With that being said, you say that unless this looks like the 1918 flu, you're not worried. Well guess what, the mortality rate of that was 2-3% and the rate here is 2%
We should still be sinking cruise shipsRight now, I think the 3% overall mortality, in places like China and Iran, is probably reasonable.
No one actually knows how bad or not bad this is. We are all making projections based on the heavily filtered data coming out of China. Right now, I think the 3% overall mortality, in places like China and Iran, is probably reasonable. China will downplay their rate, while Iran will try to make it sound worse than it really is.
On what planet do you think that wide spread will make economic disruption less? The quarantine isn't going to go away once it's spread. It'll accelerate to prevent even more cases.The number of people who have been tested is low because of a lack of testing kits. Nobody really knows the true number of people infected (denominator) so nobody can know the case fatality rate. If anything, that rate is lower than the numbers being thrown around now. The good news is that the majority of cases are mild.
The bad news is that the large number of mild cases makes it more difficult to contain. Asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people will unknowingly spread it. It will spread faster and it is less likely to burn itself out quickly like Ebola. Once it has spread widely, the quarantine and containment efforts may decline making economic disruption less.
This!!!! Covid19 is a perfect virus to destroy an entire economy in just a few weeks. The Chinese realized that with a high hospitalization rate, they don’t have the healthcare resources to deal with it so they resorted to mass quarantine. Hospitals were built literally overnight and doctors from other cities were brought in. Short term pain for long term gain. I think the flu only has a 1% hospitalization rate, covid19 is 14-20%. A high infectivity rate with a high hospitalization rate, US hospitals gonna be in a world of pain. I hope this doesn’t hold true because no one will leave their house. I hope people can weather being out of a job for a couple of months or longer.On what planet do you think that wide spread will make economic disruption less? The quarantine isn't going to go away once it's spread. It'll accelerate to prevent even more cases.
I hope this doesn’t hold true because no one will leave their house.
Did iran test all possible cases? or just these very sick who went to hospital?well the best evidence we have is that Iran has 593 cases and 43 deaths - which gives a mortality rate of 7.25% - who knows if its inflated, but it stands to reason the mortality rate is higher among poor people with significant comorbid disease, where smoking is prevalent, and healthcare is rudimentary.