The ultimate COVID thread

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nimbus said:
We are not different from Japan, Korea, and China where it is already happening.
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We're very different from China.

Japan and Korea are thoroughly modern countries though. If everything goes to hell there, hold on to your ass, going to be a wild ride.
 
pgg said:
We're very different from China.

Japan and Korea are thoroughly modern countries though. If everything goes to hell there, hold on to your ass, going to be a wild ride.
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Japan just closed all their schools in an effort to “preserve” the summer Olympics. Disney closed all their parks in Asia.

Even if the disease is mild in most cases, the economic impact is already severe and likely to get worse.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
Pure fear. That’s why the market is crashing
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That may be true, but there will be far more fear when this actually comes here, which it will.

And from an economic perspective, i think you're wrong. How much money do a group of citizens quarantined in their homes spend? How much do they produce for the economy? What happens when they don't show up at their manufacturing job. This has an immense potential for at least temporary financial interruption.
 
pgg said:
We're very different from China.

Japan and Korea are thoroughly modern countries though. If everything goes to hell there, hold on to your ass, going to be a wild ride.
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It already has. Look at South Korea. They can't control this thing at all. Or Italy.
 
South Korea and Japan are already blowing up. My mom is coming back to Japan next month, and we are very anxious about her health.
 
This is crazy. Covid-19 is very mild compared to SARS. With warmer weather, relatively less dense population, and good healthcare access in the States, its impact on economy should be transient. However, the panic can be very disruptive.
 
narcotics999 said:
This is crazy. Covid-19 is very mild compared to SARS. With warmer weather, relatively less dense population, and good healthcare access in the States, its impact on economy should be transient. However, the panic can be very disruptive.
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Mild in terms of mortality, sure. But 20% of pts in one study require hospitalization and 5% require critical care. Those are huge numbers.

But this is far more contagious, and it can't be easily screened for as SARS was. The febrile part of this seems to come later in disease course, unlike SARS, which makes it much harder to detect unless your swabbing everyone.

The number of cases of this dwarfs SARS.

And the US had plenty of high density population centers. The warm weather aspect is totally unknown. It's a guess based on SARS, only.
 
AdmiralChz said:
View attachment 297026
I just don’t see the need for hysteria, but if you want to join in saying the sky is falling...
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www.bmj.com

Coronavirus: covid-19 has killed more people than SARS and MERS combined, despite lower case fatality rate

The novel coronavirus that has so far spread from China to 26 countries around the world does not seem to be as “deadly as other coronaviruses including SARS and MERS,” the World Health Organization has said. At a briefing on 17 February WHO’s director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said...
www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
 
pgg said:
Shouldn't a soon to be or recent retiree have adjusted his asset allocation to substantially reduce exposure to equities? (Unless the size of the portfolio was so large, and his need so modest, that his "retirement" funds were less for retirement and more for a long term wealth transfer to descendants, legacy, philanthropy, etc. Which is itself not a problem at all as that investment horizon is decades away.)

Don't you agree that the market know everything we know about COVID19 at this point? Every prognostication or expectation voiced in this thread, as of today, is priced into the market, as of today.

If people feel compelled to "do something" and actually do something, their asset allocation was not appropriate for them a month ago. Anyone adding money to the market now is timing the market, and we know (we know!) that over the long term that market timing is a losing strategy. Those funds they're plowing in now to take advantage of this correction should have been invested a month or a year ago when they first became available, at whatever ratio of equity/non-equity that their asset allocation called for.

We've been talking about the possibility that an extended period of subpar equity and fixed income returns could be upon us for a full decade now.

There is nothing for me to do here except to keep adding money to my accounts, same as every other month, same % to equity and same % to non-equity. Perhaps rebalance if things get too far away from the desired AA.
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I agree with everything that you said. I was thinking about two of my 60+ year old partners who have high equity allocations one of whom just recently adjusted his equity percentage up. FOMO. I joked to my wife this was the Rockefeller shoe shine boy moment.

I haven't been doing much of anything. I did hit a band on international small today and added $$ to that position. Also bought my annual allotment of Series I savings bonds this month.
 
Problem with this virus is that the mortality rate seems to hit that sweet spot between the flu, which has such a low overall mortality rate that we barely think about it, and something like MERS with a 30% mortality rate that meant it was hard to be out in public while you were infectious. You were simply too sick to spread it

I think the key is to watch the 15 to 40 year old bracket, and figure out what the mortality ratio is in these patients.

A 3 percent mortality ratio isn't bad for the economy, if the victims are primarily non-productive youth and the aged. However, if this turns into a 1918 H1N1 type of virus, with a big spike in young, productive individuals, the economy could take a real hit.

My take on the stock market reaction is that it was heavily stressed to the upside, and the algos, and dark pools, were primed for any excuse to take it down. It was inevitable that there was going to be a "correction" before the election, there just needed to be a trigger to start the cascade of taking out everybody's stops.

Even if there is a bigger drop ahead, this is a phenomenal buying opportunity. I've been 100 percent cash for a month or more, and I started buying back in before the Friday close.

This may be my last active trading event, as I finally caught up to where I needed to be, and I'm ready to move on to other things.

Good luck to all, and enjoy the buying opportunity that is here. Keep some dry powder, and of the market tanks again next week, buy more. That's what I will be doing. And I won't be stopping out on these buys. They will be long-term, buy and hold, purchases. Something I haven't done for 5 or 6 years now.
 
periopdoc said:
Problem with this virus is that the mortality rate seems to hit that sweet spot between the flu, which has such a low overall mortality rate that we barely think about it, and something like MERS with a 30% mortality rate that meant it was hard to be out in public while you were infectious. You were simply too sick to spread it

I think the key is to watch the 15 to 40 year old bracket, and figure out what the mortality ratio is in these patients.

A 3 percent mortality ratio isn't bad for the economy, if the victims are primarily non-productive youth and the aged. However, if this turns into a 1918 H1N1 type of virus, with a big spike in young, productive individuals, the economy could take a real hit.

My take on the stock market reaction is that it was heavily stressed to the upside, and the algos, and dark pools, were primed for any excuse to take it down. It was inevitable that there was going to be a "correction" before the election, there just needed to be a trigger to start the cascade of taking out everybody's stops.

Even if there is a bigger drop ahead, this is a phenomenal buying opportunity. I've been 100 percent cash for a month or more, and I started buying back in before the Friday close.

This may be my last active trading event, as I finally caught up to where I needed to be, and I'm ready to move on to other things.

Good luck to all, and enjoy the buying opportunity that is here. Keep some dry powder, and of the market tanks again next week, buy more. That's what I will be doing. And I won't be stopping out on these buys. They will be long-term, buy and hold, purchases. Something I haven't done for 5 or 6 years now.
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I agree with most of what you’re saying, one thing to consider though is that a lot of the components and materials used to manufacture products in developed nations come from poor countries. Mortality rates where health care services are rudimentary will be much higher ... it’s about 10% in Iran at the moment.
 
periopdoc said:
A 3 percent mortality ratio isn't bad for the economy, if the victims are primarily non-productive youth and the aged. However, if this turns into a 1918 H1N1 type of virus, with a big spike in young, productive individuals, the economy could take a real hit.
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The mortality rate doesn't determine the hit that the economy takes. Supply chain disruption, businesses closing, schools closing, workers staying home, etc all are more important a single number.
 
Arch Guillotti said:
The mortality rate doesn't determine the hit that the economy takes. Supply chain disruption, businesses closing, schools closing, workers staying home, etc all are more important a single number.
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QE. Interest rate cuts. China will do the same. The world will be awash with fiat currency and by summer that will boost the economies. Yes, we will see 2, maybe even 3 quarters of zero economic growth or even negative numbers but the market will look forward once a vaccine is announced. This will be a huge rally to end all rallies with so much stimulus behind it.

Either Covid 19 takes down the economy, unlikely, or we recover like every other time with a huge spike in the markets.

The 10 year bond market is at HISTORIC lows. This means stocks are worth much more today vs low yielding bonds. But, we need to get the economy moving again to spark that rally. Only a vaccine or effective anti-viral treatment ends this fear and spurs the markets to new, all time highs by the time Bernie gets the nomination.

Let history be your guide. Every single time we get these panics they are buying opportunities. I have no idea if the market will drop another 10-15% from here but you should be BUYING on these crashes not selling.
 
BLADEMDA said:
QE. Interest rate cuts. China will do the same. The world will be awash with fiat currency and by summer that will boost the economies. Yes, we will see 2, maybe even 3 quarters of zero economic growth or even negative numbers but the market will look forward once a vaccine is announced. This will be a huge rally to end all rallies with so much stimulus behind it.

Either Covid 19 takes down the economy, unlikely, or we recover like every other time with a huge spike in the markets.

The 10 year bond market is at HISTORIC lows. This means stocks are worth much more today vs low yielding bonds. But, we need to get the economy moving again to spark that rally. Only a vaccine or effective anti-viral treatment ends this fear and spurs the markets to new, all time highs by the time Bernie gets the nomination.

Let history be your guide. Every single time we get these panics they are buying opportunities. I have no idea if the market will drop another 10-15% from here but you should be BUYING on these crashes not selling.
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Blade. All of that means nothing to me. What means something to me is if supply chains are significantly disrupted, OR's start limiting cases, employees start staying home to keep their kids because schools are closed, my revenue drops, etc.
 
BLADEMDA said:
QE. Interest rate cuts. China will do the same. The world will be awash with fiat currency and by summer that will boost the economies. Yes, we will see 2, maybe even 3 quarters of zero economic growth or even negative numbers but the market will look forward once a vaccine is announced. This will be a huge rally to end all rallies with so much stimulus behind it.

Either Covid 19 takes down the economy, unlikely, or we recover like every other time with a huge spike in the markets.

The 10 year bond market is at HISTORIC lows. This means stocks are worth much more today vs low yielding bonds. But, we need to get the economy moving again to spark that rally. Only a vaccine or effective anti-viral treatment ends this fear and spurs the markets to new, all time highs by the time Bernie gets the nomination.

Let history be your guide. Every single time we get these panics they are buying opportunities. I have no idea if the market will drop another 10-15% from here but you should be BUYING on these crashes not selling.
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Optimistic, much?

What happens if the vaccine is still 12-18 months away, as the actual scientists (ie: not the White House) are saying?

And QE and interest rate cuts are great stimulus in a low inflation environment. What makes you so sure that's what we'll be in? Do you think products on store shelves will become cheaper if the supply chain breaks down and the shelves are bare? Or is inflation going to rise as people can't find things? You want to add free money to that environment? Good luck with that!

I don't think things are going to pan out the way you'd hope they would.
 
Supply chains don't get disrupted because 5-year-old and 80-year-old people are dying. They get disrupted when productive people start dying in significant numbers.

My modeling is using a overall 10% mortality rate, in the hardest hit countries, but closer to 3% in the productive age group. These are countries where labor is cheap, and workers are replaceable. If the 3% number ticks up, that's when we can expect disruptions that will be harder to recover from.

Which is why I said, it's not the overall mortality that I care about. It's not particularly important. If we see a mortality distribution like we did in 1918, then watch out.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
Watch what Tim Cook had to say about Apple's supply chain. His data, out of China, suggests the government has successfully put a damper on this thing, and they aren't seeing continued logarithmic growth.

Apple has little reason to lie, unless the situation in China is absolutely catastrophic. You can bet Apple was buying stock back, hand over fist, on this dip.
 
periopdoc said:
Supply chains don't get disrupted because 5-year-old and 80-year-old people are dying. They get disrupted when productive people start dying in significant numbers.

My modeling is using a overall 10% mortality rate, in the hardest hit countries, but closer to 3% in the productive age group. These are countries where labor is cheap, and workers are replaceable. If the 3% number ticks up, that's when we can expect disruptions that will be harder to recover from.

Which is why I said, it's not the overall mortality that I care about. It's not particularly important. If we see a mortality distribution like we did in 1918, then watch out.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Really - your 5yo daughter dies, and you stay productive ?
 
My father killed my grandmother, my mother, and himself, or they were all killed in a home invasion, depending on which Sheriff Officer you believe, and I was back full time, in the OR, within 2 weeks.

My nephew was thrown from a horse, and died, when he was about that age. His parents were back to work, full time, within a month.

And this is in a 1st world country, where taking time off to grieve is understandable to most employers, and FMLA is reasonably ubiquitous.

In China, how long do you think the average factory worker gets off to grieve the loss of a child? As soon as quarantine is over, he is back at work.
 
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To be fair, I've had 11 years to get used to it. It happened in January of my CA-3 year, and it took me 7 or 8 years before I could speak openly and bluntly about it like I do now.

I also had at least nine personal friends die in a variety of climbing, skiing, and flying accidents, before I started medical school.

I've heard it all by now, including the CRNA who, in response to my question of how her day was going, thoughtlessly put a finger gun to her head, and pulled the trigger, less than a month after I returned to the OR.

One learns to deal.

But I do understand that life goes on after death, in a way that many people don't. Getting back to work is very healthy and beneficial after a loss. It helped me immensely to get back into the day to day grind of residency, even though they offered additional time off
 
periopdoc said:
Watch what Tim Cook had to say about Apple's supply chain. His data, out of China, suggests the government has successfully put a damper on this thing, and they aren't seeing continued logarithmic growth.

Apple has little reason to lie, unless the situation in China is absolutely catastrophic. You can bet Apple was buying stock back, hand over fist, on this dip.
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California and Washington state just reported probable community transmission of Covid19. It’s about to go logarithmic here. If the data holds on hospitalization rate, hospitals around the US will be swamped. Are we going to mass quarantine like China or the Italian or will we be like Japan/Korea. Either way, I am seeing the stock market dropping like a rock. I hope that I will still have my health and my job in the coming months to buy more stocks. Better yet if VP Pence can pray our way out of this ordeal.
 
America doesn't need mass quarantine to keep the hospitalization and mortality rate below the level of China and Iran.

I'm reasonably confident that the number of cases will go logarithmic here, but I'm not at all convinced that we will see our health systems overwhelmed.

I do hear that it is going to be really bad in Maui next month, specifically from the 17th to the 28th. I would highly recommend everyone avoid visiting this island over those 2 weeks. Pass it along.
 
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periopdoc said:
My father killed my grandmother, my mother, and himself, or they were all killed in a home invasion, depending on which Sheriff Officer you believe, and I was back full time, in the OR, within 2 weeks.
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very sorry to hear.
 
periopdoc said:
Supply chains don't get disrupted because 5-year-old and 80-year-old people are dying. They get disrupted when productive people start dying in significant numbers.
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They also get disrupted when governments impose quarantines or travel restrictions, and close airports and seaports.
 
periopdoc said:
Supply chains don't get disrupted because 5-year-old and 80-year-old people are dying. They get disrupted when productive people start dying in significant numbers.

My modeling is using a overall 10% mortality rate, in the hardest hit countries, but closer to 3% in the productive age group. These are countries where labor is cheap, and workers are replaceable. If the 3% number ticks up, that's when we can expect disruptions that will be harder to recover from.

Which is why I said, it's not the overall mortality that I care about. It's not particularly important. If we see a mortality distribution like we did in 1918, then watch out.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Supply chains have ALREADY been disrupted. It's cities being placed on lockdown and people not going to work.

With that being said, you say that unless this looks like the 1918 flu, you're not worried. Well guess what, the mortality rate of that was 2-3% and the rate here is 2%. And no, it's not just old people dying here. Yes, age is a risk factor, but there are plenty of prime working age people who have died from this so far.

And I know you all think you know everything, but if you want an experts perspective on this, I highly recommend you listen to this podcast for 20 minutes: The Coronavirus Isn't Going Away - Deep Background with Noah Feldman
 
facted said:
Supply chains have ALREADY been disrupted. It's cities being placed on lockdown and people not going to work.

With that being said, you say that unless this looks like the 1918 flu, you're not worried. Well guess what, the mortality rate of that was 2-3% and the rate here is 2%
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The reason for bringing up the 1918 flu has little to do with the overall mortality rate. It has to do with the age distribution. If the age distribution of the COV-19 mortality rate starts to look like that of the 1918 flu, then I'll get nervous about worldwide economic effects. If the mortality rate of a virus is 10%, but it only kills those older than 80 or younger than 1, then it isn't going to have a significant impact on productivity. It will have a small impact, just like the flu.

The biggest shortages we are seeing right now have more to do with hoarding than supply chain disruption. Yes there is disruption, and yes it will have some ripple effects, but for the point of this thread, the question is how bad will it get? Is it time to rebuy the market, or should we wait.

No one actually knows how bad or not bad this is. We are all making projections based on the heavily filtered data coming out of China. Right now, I think the 3% overall mortality, in places like China and Iran, is probably reasonable. China will downplay their rate, while Iran will try to make it sound worse than it really is.

Until we have good data, we have to rely on reading between the lines when people, like Tim Cook, who have extensive networks within China, speak. My takeaway is that the disruption has more to do with quarantine than actual death of productive workers.
 
The number of people who have been tested is low because of a lack of testing kits. Nobody really knows the true number of people infected (denominator) so nobody can know the case fatality rate. If anything, that rate is lower than the numbers being thrown around now. The good news is that the majority of cases are mild.

The bad news is that the large number of mild cases makes it more difficult to contain. Asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people will unknowingly spread it. It will spread faster and it is less likely to burn itself out quickly like Ebola. Once it has spread widely, the quarantine and containment efforts may decline making economic disruption less.
 
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periopdoc said:
No one actually knows how bad or not bad this is. We are all making projections based on the heavily filtered data coming out of China. Right now, I think the 3% overall mortality, in places like China and Iran, is probably reasonable. China will downplay their rate, while Iran will try to make it sound worse than it really is.
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well the best evidence we have is that Iran has 593 cases and 43 deaths - which gives a mortality rate of 7.25% - who knows if its inflated, but it stands to reason the mortality rate is higher among poor people with significant comorbid disease, where smoking is prevalent, and healthcare is rudimentary.
 
nimbus said:
The number of people who have been tested is low because of a lack of testing kits. Nobody really knows the true number of people infected (denominator) so nobody can know the case fatality rate. If anything, that rate is lower than the numbers being thrown around now. The good news is that the majority of cases are mild.

The bad news is that the large number of mild cases makes it more difficult to contain. Asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people will unknowingly spread it. It will spread faster and it is less likely to burn itself out quickly like Ebola. Once it has spread widely, the quarantine and containment efforts may decline making economic disruption less.
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On what planet do you think that wide spread will make economic disruption less? The quarantine isn't going to go away once it's spread. It'll accelerate to prevent even more cases.
 
facted said:
On what planet do you think that wide spread will make economic disruption less? The quarantine isn't going to go away once it's spread. It'll accelerate to prevent even more cases.
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This!!!! Covid19 is a perfect virus to destroy an entire economy in just a few weeks. The Chinese realized that with a high hospitalization rate, they don’t have the healthcare resources to deal with it so they resorted to mass quarantine. Hospitals were built literally overnight and doctors from other cities were brought in. Short term pain for long term gain. I think the flu only has a 1% hospitalization rate, covid19 is 14-20%. A high infectivity rate with a high hospitalization rate, US hospitals gonna be in a world of pain. I hope this doesn’t hold true because no one will leave their house. I hope people can weather being out of a job for a couple of months or longer.
 
JobsFan said:
well the best evidence we have is that Iran has 593 cases and 43 deaths - which gives a mortality rate of 7.25% - who knows if its inflated, but it stands to reason the mortality rate is higher among poor people with significant comorbid disease, where smoking is prevalent, and healthcare is rudimentary.
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Did iran test all possible cases? or just these very sick who went to hospital?
 
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