The ultimate COVID thread

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All estimates or predictions are just guesses. Leon Cooperman, Billionaire, said on CNBC that projected earning of the S and P 500 were about 150-160 with a P/E multiple of 17-18 (because of QE, zero percent interst rates, trillions of stimulus) so he came up with 2550.



I am aware of where they come from, asking the question to make the point that they are meaningless in terms of providing actionable information.
 
Trump says the US will halt funding to the World Health Organization. He already wanted to cut the budget the US provides in half, but I guess he just said screw it lets get rid of it all. That doesn't bode well for economics around the world either :/

 
Trump says the US will halt funding to the World Health Organization. He already wanted to cut the budget the US provides in half, but I guess he just said screw it lets get rid of it all. That doesn't bode well for economics around the world either :/


The WHO has billions of dollars in funding to be the experts in disease outbreak. Shouldn’t they bear some responsibility? Digging up feeble warnings they may have suggested at earlier dates doesn’t change the fact that they weren’t effective when they needed to be.


For health emergencies, we:

  • prepare for emergencies by identifying, mitigating and managing risks
  • prevent emergencies and support development of tools necessary during outbreaks
  • detect and respond to acute health emergencies
  • support delivery of essential health services in fragile settings.
 
Trump says the US will halt funding to the World Health Organization. He already wanted to cut the budget the US provides in half, but I guess he just said screw it lets get rid of it all. That doesn't bode well for economics around the world either :/

There is Sleepy Joe and then there is Demented Don.
 
The WHO has billions of dollars in funding to be the experts in disease outbreak. Shouldn’t they bear some responsibility? Digging up feeble warnings they may have suggested at earlier dates doesn’t change the fact that they weren’t effective when they needed to be.


For health emergencies, we:

  • prepare for emergencies by identifying, mitigating and managing risks
  • prevent emergencies and support development of tools necessary during outbreaks
  • detect and respond to acute health emergencies
  • support delivery of essential health services in fragile settings.

C3C2D025-C5D3-42EE-9902-3683D730A343.jpeg
 
The WHO has billions of dollars in funding to be the experts in disease outbreak. Shouldn’t they bear some responsibility? Digging up feeble warnings they may have suggested at earlier dates doesn’t change the fact that they weren’t effective when they needed to be.


For health emergencies, we:

  • prepare for emergencies by identifying, mitigating and managing risks
  • prevent emergencies and support development of tools necessary during outbreaks
  • detect and respond to acute health emergencies
  • support delivery of essential health services in fragile settings.

I said nothing about them not bearing some responsibility.
Just like the cdc bears some responsibility.
And some governors and mayors bear some responsibility.
Etc.
I don't think the correct solution to that in the middle of a pandemic is to halt ALL funding to groups/organizations/states that didn't do everything perfectly.
Trump says none of this is his fault, so he's just going to remove funding from everyone for everything? That's logical.
Doesn't seem great for the economy or health of this country.
 
I said nothing about them not bearing some responsibility.
Just like the cdc bears some responsibility.
And some governors and mayors bear some responsibility.
Etc.
I don't think the correct solution to that in the middle of a pandemic is to halt ALL funding to groups/organizations/states that didn't do everything perfectly.
Trump says none of this is his fault, so he's just going to remove funding from everyone for everything? That's logical.
Doesn't seem great for the economy or health of this country.

Wasn’t meant to be an attack at you. I just don’t see the value added from the billions in funding to the WHO. It appears every government, federal and local, is largely winging it.
 
Wasn’t meant to be an attack at you. I just don’t see the value added from the billions in funding to the WHO. It appears every government, federal and local, is largely winging it.

Ok. Maybe you have no direct experience with what the WHO does, so I assume that's why you don't see the value?
I'm sure you're busy like the rest of us, but maybe a little bit of research in the future can help you understand that the value the WHO has around the world including in the US and within the economy and health and wellness of people.
I'll give you credit since you're not the president of the US to not understand what they do, but the President certainly should understand why cutting the WHO budget by approximately 15% in the midst of a pandemic is likely not a good idea. One day he's taking guidance from them and the next he's cutting funding, it's rather horrific.

Also, no, not everyone is just winging it. For example, in Chile they've done a decent job at testing and they've been quarantining neighborhoods as needed. They've been tracing as well. I obviously don't know all the details and I'm sure there are mistakes there like everywhere else, but it doesn't seem like they are winging it.
 
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All estimates or predictions are just guesses. Leon Cooperman, Billionaire, said on CNBC that projected earning of the S and P 500 were about 150-160 with a P/E multiple of 17-18 (because of QE, zero percent interst rates, trillions of stimulus) so he came up with 2550.


These projections are rarely correct, so it's still an educated estimate at best.
 


“Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.“
 


“Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.“

Literally zero chance the public goes along w this. I doubt we’re able to do what we’re doing now for another month.
 
These projections are all hyperbole and hot air. 5or6 weeks ago everyone was saying it was no big thing, yet now everyone has a crystal ball. No one has a clue how this thing is going to develop.
 
WHO didn’t do everything wo flaws but, correct me if I’m wrong, didn’t the WHO start warning the world back in January to start preparing for this possible emergency? They then proceeded to provide countries throughout the world w a quality, reliable test. A test the US rejected. What happened next is that the countries that took this seriously, prepared, and tested like crazy came out of this in good shape. The US, on the other hand...
 
WHO didn’t do everything wo flaws but, correct me if I’m wrong, didn’t the WHO start warning the world back in January to start preparing for this possible emergency? They then proceeded to provide countries throughout the world w a quality, reliable test. A test the US rejected. What happened next is that the countries that took this seriously, prepared, and tested like crazy came out of this in good shape. The US, on the other hand...

Mid-January, they were parroting the “no human-to-human” transmission line. At the end of January, they praised China’s handling of the thing and pushed back against the China travel ban.

The US made its fair of mistakes as well from the top to bottom and across multiple decades, and yes, that includes Trump and Co. I seriously don’t understand people advocating for larger government when the entire response has been bungled the entire way by the government.

The CDC rejecting their test is weird. Think Fauci or Byrx would’ve rejected that test? Does anyone know the feasibility of having any sort of POC testing available on a national level? I’ve seen a few article mention South Korea being able to do it, but it took them the better part of a decade to get to that point. I have to imagine that even if we had/have the test developed, it would take months to build the machines and manufacture the reagents—I assume like so many of our meds, we import these as well?

It would be nice if anyone could give us some actual plan information about how we’re supposed to end this.
 
It would be nice if anyone could give us some actual plan information about how we’re supposed to end this.

I mean it would be nice, but literally no-one on the planet has a clue. Everyone is just bungling along included yours truly!

Anyone who says different is either stupid or a liar
 
The US made its fair of mistakes as well from the top to bottom and across multiple decades, and yes, that includes Trump and Co. I seriously don’t understand people advocating for larger government when the entire response has been bungled the entire way by the government.


The only body able to address this pandemic in a coherent way is the government. That’s who took charge and didn’t bungle it in South Korea, HK, Singapore. Private industry cannot handle this problem. What is your alternative proposal? Sign over governing authority to Bill Gates?
 
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$10T total of monopoly money being injected into the economy to save us?! wtf. we, our children and our children's children are screwed. I'd rather take my chances with the virus.

Yes, sendate democrats are also trying to introduce a new bill, Hero fund that gives 25k to essential workers... (5k if you make >200k). Essential workers include millions of people so if this actually happens, we are looking at another big spending, and probably inflation coming our way
 
Literally zero chance the public goes along w this. I doubt we’re able to do what we’re doing now for another month.

I think the article is saying we need to be cautious, but not necessarily advocating for 2 years of quarantine. I think hospitals will need to demonstrate some surge capacity going forward and will not be able to operate at 90% bed capacity as they did before this. It’ll be interesting to see how that trickles down to the ORs.
 
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$10T total of monopoly money being injected into the economy to save us?! wtf. we, our children and our children's children are screwed. I'd rather take my chances with the virus.
Totally agree. Talk of lockdown into 2022 with a completely insane Government and Fed could make the virus and bodies in the street look like literally a picnic.

Someone will get stuck with the tab, that's a guarantee, and it's been made clear it won't be the people holding the debt, but rather people watching savings and wealth evaporate, sucked dry as new fake money pays off bad debt and bad government. Scary is there are so many fancy Ivy League grads on Wall Street and elsewhere that honestly have no clue what a mathematical sham has been taking place.

It would be nice to have the luxury to stay home and mitigate and live off of the saved wealth of the nation. We really don't have that luxury. These numbers thrown around scare the beejesus out of me.
 
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Mid-January, they were parroting the “no human-to-human” transmission line. At the end of January, they praised China’s handling of the thing and pushed back against the China travel ban.

The US made its fair of mistakes as well from the top to bottom and across multiple decades, and yes, that includes Trump and Co. I seriously don’t understand people advocating for larger government when the entire response has been bungled the entire way by the government.

The CDC rejecting their test is weird. Think Fauci or Byrx would’ve rejected that test? Does anyone know the feasibility of having any sort of POC testing available on a national level? I’ve seen a few article mention South Korea being able to do it, but it took them the better part of a decade to get to that point. I have to imagine that even if we had/have the test developed, it would take months to build the machines and manufacture the reagents—I assume like so many of our meds, we import these as well?

It would be nice if anyone could give us some actual plan information about how we’re supposed to end this.
Not entirely accurate and missing significant details re: WHO timeline. I saw someone post a detailed timeline of events on a reddit thread () and I'm sharing much of it here:

31 Dec 2019

China reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

1 January 2020

WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

4 January 2020

WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province.

5 January 2020

WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

10 January 2020

WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries.

Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers.

12 January 2020

China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19.

13 January 2020

Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.

14 January 2020

WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens.

20-21 January 2020

WHO experts from its China and Western Pacific regional offices conducted a brief field visit to Wuhan.

22 January 2020

WHO mission to China issued a statement saying that there was evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan but more investigation was needed to understand the full extent of transmission.

22- 23 January 2020

The WHO Director- General convened an Emergency Committee (EC) under the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) to assess whether the outbreak constituted a public health emergency of international concern. The independent members from around the world could not reach a consensus based on the evidence available at the time. They asked to be reconvened within 10 days after receiving more information.

28 January 2020

A senior WHO delegation led by the Director-General travelled to Beijing to meet China’s leadership, learn more about China’s response, and to offer any technical assistance.

While in Beijing, Dr. Tedros agreed with Chinese government leaders that an international team of leading scientists would travel to China on a mission to better understand the context, the overall response, and exchange information and experience.

30 January 2020

The WHO Director-General reconvened the Emergency Committee (EC). This was earlier than the 10-day period and only two days after the first reports of limited human-to-human transmission were reported outside China. This time, the EC reached consensus and advised the Director-General that the outbreak constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The Director-General accepted the recommendation and declared the novel coronavirus outbreak (2019-nCoV) a PHEIC. This is the 6th time WHO has declared a PHEIC since the International Health Regulations (IHR) came into force in 2005.

3 February 2020

WHO releases the international community's Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan to help protect states with weaker health systems.

11-12 February 2020

WHO convened a Research and Innovation Forum on COVID-19, attended by more than 400 experts and funders from around the world, which included presentations by George Gao, Director General of China CDC, and Zunyou Wu, China CDC's chief epidemiologist.

16-24 February 2020

The WHO-China Joint mission, which included experts from Canada, Germany, Japan, Nigeria, Republic of Korea, Russia, Singapore and the US (CDC, NIH) spent time in Beijing and also travelled to Wuhan and two other cities. They spoke with health officials, scientists and health workers in health facilities (maintaining physical distancing). The report of the joint mission can be found here: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Additional key points:
-The Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan the WHO released on Feb 3 stated the following:
"National public health emergency management mechanisms should be activated with engagement of relevant ministries such as health, education, travel and tourism, public works, environment, social protection, and agriculture, to provide coordinated management of COVID-19 preparedness and response."

The US declared a state of emergency on March 12.

-On Feb 25, WHO released its Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019. On that date, the US had 53 COVID cases and none of the following recommendations were carried out by the US.

For countries with imported cases and/or outbreaks of COVID-19

  1. Immediately activate the highest level of national Response Management protocols to ensure the all-of-government and all-of-society approach needed to contain COVID-19 with non-pharmaceutical public health measures;
  2. Prioritize active, exhaustive case finding and immediate testing and isolation, painstaking contact tracing and rigorous quarantine of close contacts;
  3. Fully educate the general public on the seriousness of COVID-19 and their role in preventing its spread;
  4. Immediately expand surveillance to detect COVID-19 transmission chains, by testing all patients with atypical pneumonias, conducting screening in some patients with upper respiratory illnesses and/or recent COVID-19 exposure, and adding testing for the COVID-19 virus to existing surveillance systems (e.g. systems for influenza-like-illness and SARI); and
  5. Conduct multi-sector scenario planning and simulations for the deployment of even more stringent measures to interrupt transmission chains as needed (e.g. the suspension of large-scale gatherings and the closure of schools and workplaces).
For uninfected countries

  1. Prepare to immediately activate the highest level of emergency response mechanisms to trigger the all-of-government and all-of society approach that is essential for early containment of a COVID-19 outbreak;
  2. Rapidly test national preparedness plans in light of new knowledge on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures against COVID-19; incorporate rapid detection, large scale case isolation and respiratory support capacities, and rigorous
  3. contact tracing and management in national COVID-19 readiness and response plans and capacities;
  4. Immediately enhance surveillance for COVID-19 as rapid detection is crucial to containing spread; consider testing all patients with atypical pneumonia for the COVID-19 virus, and adding testing for the virus to existing influenza surveillance systems;
  5. Begin now to enforce rigorous application of infection prevention and control measures in all healthcare facilities, especially in emergency departments and outpatient clinics, as this is where COVID-19 will enter the health system; and
  6. Rapidly assess the general population’s understanding of COVID-19, adjust national health promotion materials and activities accordingly, and engage clinical champions to communicate with the media.
So according to the above, it seems like the WHO did make quite a few recommendations in response to a quickly escalating crisis throughout a substantial time frame and the countries that actually followed them performed well. Meanwhile, should we count number of days during January-March our President spent at the golf course or holding rallies?
 
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I am still #teamsweden. Their success would be great for all countries. Don't be confused. It's not a do nothing approach. It's a we won't lie to you, ie you'll probably get the virus anyway, but we'll try to protect the sick and elderly and not send the economic strength of the country back to the stone ages. Unless they are running significantly behind on death tallies (quite possible), Sweden Corona deaths look to have fallen off a cliff for about the last 4 days or so.

 
I am still #teamsweden. Their success would be great for all countries. Don't be confused. It's not a do nothing approach. It's a we won't lie to you, ie you'll probably get the virus anyway, but we'll try to protect the sick and elderly and not send the economic strength of the country back to the stone ages. Unless they are running significantly behind on death tallies (quite possible), Sweden Corona deaths look to have fallen off a cliff for about the last 4 days or so.



It’s back up over 100. But they seem no worse than other countries. I’m watching with interest to see how things play out there.

One thing I don’t understand is how you can let Covid run it’s course and still protect the sick and the elderly. We’ve seen how it ravages nursing homes. How and where do you protect them? Or do we just sacrifice them (and the occasional 35yo) for the “greater good”? It seems like an impossible task.
 
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Not entirely accurate and missing significant details re: WHO timeline. I saw someone post a detailed timeline of events on a reddit thread () and I'm sharing much of it here:

31 Dec 2019

China reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

1 January 2020

WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

4 January 2020

WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province.

5 January 2020

WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

10 January 2020

WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries.

Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers.

12 January 2020

China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19.

13 January 2020

Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.

14 January 2020

WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens.

20-21 January 2020

WHO experts from its China and Western Pacific regional offices conducted a brief field visit to Wuhan.

22 January 2020

WHO mission to China issued a statement saying that there was evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan but more investigation was needed to understand the full extent of transmission.

22- 23 January 2020

The WHO Director- General convened an Emergency Committee (EC) under the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) to assess whether the outbreak constituted a public health emergency of international concern. The independent members from around the world could not reach a consensus based on the evidence available at the time. They asked to be reconvened within 10 days after receiving more information.

28 January 2020

A senior WHO delegation led by the Director-General travelled to Beijing to meet China’s leadership, learn more about China’s response, and to offer any technical assistance.

While in Beijing, Dr. Tedros agreed with Chinese government leaders that an international team of leading scientists would travel to China on a mission to better understand the context, the overall response, and exchange information and experience.

30 January 2020

The WHO Director-General reconvened the Emergency Committee (EC). This was earlier than the 10-day period and only two days after the first reports of limited human-to-human transmission were reported outside China. This time, the EC reached consensus and advised the Director-General that the outbreak constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The Director-General accepted the recommendation and declared the novel coronavirus outbreak (2019-nCoV) a PHEIC. This is the 6th time WHO has declared a PHEIC since the International Health Regulations (IHR) came into force in 2005.

3 February 2020

WHO releases the international community's Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan to help protect states with weaker health systems.

11-12 February 2020

WHO convened a Research and Innovation Forum on COVID-19, attended by more than 400 experts and funders from around the world, which included presentations by George Gao, Director General of China CDC, and Zunyou Wu, China CDC's chief epidemiologist.

16-24 February 2020

The WHO-China Joint mission, which included experts from Canada, Germany, Japan, Nigeria, Republic of Korea, Russia, Singapore and the US (CDC, NIH) spent time in Beijing and also travelled to Wuhan and two other cities. They spoke with health officials, scientists and health workers in health facilities (maintaining physical distancing). The report of the joint mission can be found here: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Additional key points:
-The Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan the WHO released on Feb 3 stated the following:
"National public health emergency management mechanisms should be activated with engagement of relevant ministries such as health, education, travel and tourism, public works, environment, social protection, and agriculture, to provide coordinated management of COVID-19 preparedness and response."

The US declared a state of emergency on March 12.

-On Feb 25, WHO released its Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019. On that date, the US had 53 COVID cases and none of the following recommendations were carried out by the US.

For countries with imported cases and/or outbreaks of COVID-19

  1. Immediately activate the highest level of national Response Management protocols to ensure the all-of-government and all-of-society approach needed to contain COVID-19 with non-pharmaceutical public health measures;
  2. Prioritize active, exhaustive case finding and immediate testing and isolation, painstaking contact tracing and rigorous quarantine of close contacts;
  3. Fully educate the general public on the seriousness of COVID-19 and their role in preventing its spread;
  4. Immediately expand surveillance to detect COVID-19 transmission chains, by testing all patients with atypical pneumonias, conducting screening in some patients with upper respiratory illnesses and/or recent COVID-19 exposure, and adding testing for the COVID-19 virus to existing surveillance systems (e.g. systems for influenza-like-illness and SARI); and
  5. Conduct multi-sector scenario planning and simulations for the deployment of even more stringent measures to interrupt transmission chains as needed (e.g. the suspension of large-scale gatherings and the closure of schools and workplaces).
For uninfected countries

  1. Prepare to immediately activate the highest level of emergency response mechanisms to trigger the all-of-government and all-of society approach that is essential for early containment of a COVID-19 outbreak;
  2. Rapidly test national preparedness plans in light of new knowledge on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures against COVID-19; incorporate rapid detection, large scale case isolation and respiratory support capacities, and rigorous
  3. contact tracing and management in national COVID-19 readiness and response plans and capacities;
  4. Immediately enhance surveillance for COVID-19 as rapid detection is crucial to containing spread; consider testing all patients with atypical pneumonia for the COVID-19 virus, and adding testing for the virus to existing influenza surveillance systems;
  5. Begin now to enforce rigorous application of infection prevention and control measures in all healthcare facilities, especially in emergency departments and outpatient clinics, as this is where COVID-19 will enter the health system; and
  6. Rapidly assess the general population’s understanding of COVID-19, adjust national health promotion materials and activities accordingly, and engage clinical champions to communicate with the media.
So according to the above, it seems like the WHO did make quite a few recommendations in response to a quickly escalating crisis throughout a substantial time frame and the countries that actually followed them performed well. Meanwhile, should we count number of days during January-March our President spent at the golf course or holding rallies?



That’s a good timeline. Thanks for sharing. I think it should be noted for completeness sake, per the reddit timeline, WHO noted evidence of limited human to human spread on January 28th and on January 30th they reached consensus that this was a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

January 31, Trump initiated a travel ban from China and 14 day quarantines for US citizens from China. At this time there were only 259 deaths in China, 7 known cases in the US, and only 1 case in Italy. This action was against the recommendation of the WHO. Clearly the move was not enough to stop the spread, but to Trumps credit, this is objectively an early response given the information available at the time.

We were trying to develop rapid testing in February. The tests didn’t work well enough and there are reports of Bureaucratic hold ups from the FDA. Obviously this did not and still has not come to fruition. I still don’t really get how some countries have tests and some don’t. This seems like a global failure of scientific sharing of critical information. I have no idea what the fix is.


 
jan 31 travel ban was a step in the right direction.
unfortunately it wasn't followed by further travel bans and efforts at social distancing in anything like a timely manner.
The USA squandered an opportunity
 
Sigh.... I know this. Maybe the estimates aren't accurate? Like the estimates for the first quarter back in Dec? All I'm sayin.

well sure, but you implied that you knew something the market didn't by saying that Q2 and Q3 estimates were not being considered. You don't. I don't. The market is mostly efficient most of the time. The only advantage we have as individual small investors is we can choose to invest on a different timeline than the schizo short term craziness that the big players are forced to deal with.
 
well sure, but you implied that you knew something the market didn't by saying that Q2 and Q3 estimates were not being considered. You don't. I don't. The market is mostly efficient most of the time. The only advantage we have as individual small investors is we can choose to invest on a different timeline than the schizo short term craziness that the big players are forced to deal with.
I said nothing like that. When I said I didnt think the earnings were baked in to current valuations,I read it as the earning estimates being used aren't accurate because we dont yet completely understand the effects of shutting down our economy. I think the market is over valued, hence my comment about the double dip. Sorry if I was inelegant in my post.
 
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I said nothing like that. When I said I didnt think the earnings were baked in to current valuations,I read it as the earning estimates being used aren't accurate because we dont yet completely understand the effects of shutting down our economy. I think the market is over valued, hence my comment about the double dip. Sorry if I was inelegant in my post.

not yet understanding the effects of shutting down our economy does not mean the market is overvalued or undervalued, it could be either (since you know we don't understand it)
 
I am still #teamsweden. Their success would be great for all countries. Don't be confused. It's not a do nothing approach. It's a we won't lie to you, ie you'll probably get the virus anyway, but we'll try to protect the sick and elderly and not send the economic strength of the country back to the stone ages. Unless they are running significantly behind on death tallies (quite possible), Sweden Corona deaths look to have fallen off a cliff for about the last 4 days or so.


It'd be hard to extrapolate Sweden data to many countries, including the US. I believe Sweden is overall significantly healthier than the US (certainly less DM II, HTN, and morbid obesity). Even if they escape largely unscathed it simply proves what we already know - we are very unhealthy as a country.
 
It'd be hard to extrapolate Sweden data to many countries, including the US. I believe Sweden is overall significantly healthier than the US (certainly less DM II, HTN, and morbid obesity). Even if they escape largely unscathed it simply proves what we already know - we are very unhealthy as a country.
In the only metric I sort of trust for comparison, deaths/million population is about 50% higher in Sweden than the USA. So there is that...
About 25% of their deaths were in the last 2 days.
 
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“But Bob Kocher, a partner at Venrock focused on healthcare investments, said that private equity funds that took out a lot of debt are going to feel pressure to cut costs, and may try to sell practices back to doctors at a loss.“
 
“But Bob Kocher, a partner at Venrock focused on healthcare investments, said that private equity funds that took out a lot of debt are going to feel pressure to cut costs, and may try to sell practices back to doctors at a loss.“

After the finance guys with their physician and CRNA "consultants" have tried and failed... Have doctors write a big check in this environment...
:roflcopter:

I wrote this five years ago. Never thought #3 would come back.

 
We have topped out on the S and P 500. Reality has set in. That means We will begin to drop towards an S and P of 2550 then 2400. We could possibly re-test the lows of 2200.

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I expected the drop to be much worse. My personal spending went down a lot more than that. “There’s nothing to do no where to go, I wanna be sedated.”

my expenditure went up. many grocery stores around me are CLOSED. the ones that are open have drastically increased prices. im ordering food dailly which is about 30$ a day for 2 meals. Plus many people stocked up on food and items and drove up sales in costco/walmart/target. i suspect april may be worse
 
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a lot will depend on what actions fed takes...

And as bad as these reports are, April’s data will likely be worse. All in all, the 10-year Treasury yield is slipping again to roughly 0.66%, and the price of crude oil is back below $20. Economists are settling on a roughly -40% annualized drop for second-quarter GDP. “Equity bulls begin to wonder if it’s time to press the pause button on the rally,” Art Cashin mused this morning. “It might be.”
 
All the fed can do is print money that winds up in financial assets.

This Congress has a choice but prefers to give the money to big and small businesses ostensibly so that they can keep their employees.

Personally, I would like to see the corporations not bailed out. Have lots of organized bankruptcies like the auto companies. Wipe out the stock holders and convert the debt to equity.

Give money directly to the bottom 90% or so of citizens in the form of a monthly stipend till the crisis passes.
 
I expected the drop to be much worse. My personal spending went down a lot more than that. “There’s nothing to do, no where to go. I wanna be sedated.”



 
All the fed can do is print money that winds up in financial assets.

This Congress has a choice but prefers to give the money to big and small businesses ostensibly so that they can keep their employees.

Personally, I would like to see the corporations not bailed out. Have lots of organized bankruptcies like the auto companies. Wipe out the stock holders and convert the debt to equity.

Give money directly to the bottom 90% or so of citizens in the form of a monthly stipend till the crisis passes.

well that is what unemployment checks are for.

but i definitely agree id rather have these companies do bankruptcy
 
well that is what unemployment checks are for.
Wrong. Individual stimulus checks exist for the main reason of electoral advertising to the poor and uneducated. Panem et circuses, signed Donald J Trump (aka their "godfather"). And the fact that no institution (e.g. the FEC) questions this suggests a huge rot in our democracy.

 
my expenditure went up. many grocery stores around me are CLOSED. the ones that are open have drastically increased prices. im ordering food dailly which is about 30$ a day for 2 meals. Plus many people stocked up on food and items and drove up sales in costco/walmart/target. i suspect april may be worse
Eat less. It's good for ya.
 
All the fed can do is print money that winds up in financial assets.

This Congress has a choice but prefers to give the money to big and small businesses ostensibly so that they can keep their employees.

Personally, I would like to see the corporations not bailed out. Have lots of organized bankruptcies like the auto companies. Wipe out the stock holders and convert the debt to equity.

Give money directly to the bottom 90% or so of citizens in the form of a monthly stipend till the crisis passes.

This is exactly what should have happened. The stimulus should have been nothing but a UBI type payment to individuals instead of corporate bailouts. Businesses should be allowed to fail. Cataclysms should be a time of great entrepreneurship in the market. Instead we send checks to stockholders who are watching Netflix.

The problem is, individuals don’t have lobbyists. Congress has not had to answer to the people for decades now. They answer to the campaign financiers.
 
This is exactly what should have happened. The stimulus should have been nothing but a UBI type payment to individuals instead of corporate bailouts. Businesses should be allowed to fail. Cataclysms should be a time of great entrepreneurship in the market. Instead we send checks to stockholders who are watching Netflix.

The problem is, individuals don’t have lobbyists. Congress has not had to answer to the people for decades now. They answer to the campaign financiers.
This is another proof that human beings are so rotten and selfish at the core they can **** up even the best things (e.g. free market economy, democracy, you name it).

:=|:-): to Jordan Peterson.
 
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