I’m not sure we’re going to know for a several more months or even a year who comes out ahead. None of our models account for a second wave, which will come. At some point we have to get back to work. Indefinitely printing money doesn’t work. Massive unemployment will have its own consequences.
I know the whole contact tracing and testing is supposed to be the answer, but it seems that even that could be in doubt. Gottlieb posted an article today about how people are most infectious before they ever show symptoms. How do you contact trace people with a 10-14 day asymptomatic period through which they’re shedding virus? You’re talking about 1 person potentially infecting hundreds of people before they show so a fever. To complicate things more, the nasal swab PCRs are terrible screening tests with sensitivities at best at 80% but as low as 60%—assuming the specimen is gathered correctly. So you’re going to either use antibody testing(which makes no sense for contact tracing), pray for a better screening test, or base everything on clinical symptoms.
It’s also worth mentioning there’s literally no standard definition as to what classifies as a COVID death. Germany wasn’t counting deaths as COVID if patients had significant underlying disease, which we know is probably the highest risk factor for death anyway. The Netherlands are doing somewhat similar tallying, while Sweden has a much more liberal classification to what is COVID. This obviously is going to cause significant differences in death rates that’s going to confound the data. I honestly think we open w sort of hybrid of what we’re doing now and Sweden’s model and tell old and at risk populations to stay home or accept the risk
Two studies from last week also showed a tremendous lowering of the death rate. Netherlands apparently believes ~3% of its population has antibodies, lowering their death rate from 11% to 0.6% and 0.1% for everyone 44 y/o and below. Stanford is coming out with similar stats in Santa Clara where estimated cases are 50-85% higher than reported, which drags down the death rate as well.