The ultimate COVID thread

[Impromptu]

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The Federal goalposts to reach before entering the first phase are:
1. Symptoms: A downward trajectory of influenza like illnesses within a 14 day period and a downward trajectory of covid like syndromic cases within 14 days.
2. Cases: Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14 day period and a downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14 day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3. Hosptials: Treat all patients without crisis care, and robust testing program in place for at risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing.

Many states have met those Federal goalposts and can move into the first phase of reopening.

 

[vector2]

The Federal goalposts to reach before entering the first phase are:
1. Symptoms: A downward trajectory of influenza like illnesses within a 14 day period and a downward trajectory of covid like syndromic cases within 14 days.
2. Cases: Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14 day period and a downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14 day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3. Hosptials: Treat all patients without crisis care, and robust testing program in place for at risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing.

Many states have met those Federal goalposts and can move into the first phase of reopening.

“The states with a general downward trajectory in daily cases include Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia and Wyoming. “

And yet 40 states have made moves towards reopening, most without robust testing or a plan on what do if the numbers spike hard. No, experts are not always correct, but presumably there is some epidemiological evidence based on prior pandemics which the CDC federal guidelines are based upon. Instead, states are bowing solely to economic and political pressure while the science takes a backseat.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I think a lot of people forgot the point of the lockdown was to flatten the curve. They just don't want any more deaths from covid 19.

I think some want to flatten the economy because
1) They don't like Trump
2) They don't like capitalism
3) They like big government control

 

[Lawpy]

Ok quick question: why not scale up the production of covid tests and test every one regularly, while isolating anyone infected?

If the current tests are bad, subsidize research to make better ones and then scale up the production drastically. By doing so, you can also significantly reduce the fears.

Seems a far better alternative than just tanking the economy with bad lockdowns.

 

[Lawpy]

I think some want to flatten the economy because
1) They don't like Trump
2) They don't like capitalism
3) They like big government control

Lol i'm just trying to reconcile liking big government control and slamming Trump as a dictator for using the powers his predecessors gave him but that's a topic for another day

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

The CDC guideline called for merely 14 days of declining cases before phased reopening. As of now, only about a dozen states have even bent the curve, meanwhile 40 states are making a push to open. I honestly don’t know where the “governors or some other people want indefinite lockdowns leading to widespread economic destruction and hopelessness and suicides etc etc” false narrative strawman is coming from.

I don't think the same requirement of a 14 day decline can be used universally when you have a state like NY with a quarter of the national cases and a third of the national deaths, but then also have numerous states presently with very little active disease.

 

[deleted171991]

Not a good sign when actual physicians have the same depth of understanding of this issue as Trump lol. That they are just as dumbfounded and clueless as he is as far as a plan. Imagine being an MD and trusting Trump's intellect over the guidance of the country's top public health officials, scientific experts, and economists. Jesus christ. By the way, many places are reopening and as they do, without adequate testing, providing the perfect ground that nCoV needs to swell and swell and swell.

A good number of physicians voted for Trump in 2016. Heck, some even defend him here big time. Their intellect is like Trump's intellect (except the latter has the excuse of dementia). Tell me with whom you associate, and I'll tell you who you are.

 

[deleted171991]

I think some want to flatten the economy because
1) They don't like Trump
2) They don't like capitalism
3) They like big government control

I think a lot of people don't want to flatten the economy, because the economy is us. We just want to flatten the curve, because anybody above that curve will also be us.

Nobody in their right patriotic mind can like Trump, and what he's doing to the (banana) republic. But one doesn't kill the patient to get rid of the cancer.

 

[Lawpy]

I think a lot of people don't want to flatten the economy, because the economy is us. We just want to flatten the curve, because anybody above that curve will also be us.

Nobody in their right patriotic mind can like Trump, and what he's doing to the (banana) republic. But one doesn't kill the patient to get rid of the cancer.

There have been a lot of deep problems in the country that set the stage for Trump presidency. But that's a topic for another day.

I just think lockdowns aren't helping and the best way is to scale up testing and isolate everyone who's infected.

 

[deleted171991]

There have been a lot of deep problems in the country that set the stage for Trump presidency. But that's a topic for another day.

I just think lockdowns aren't helping and the best way is to scale up testing and isolate everyone who's infected.

I completely agree. Trump didn't just appear from nothing. But, again, one doesn't kill the patient to get rid of the cancer. Trump is the wrong treatment, and he's killing us all (except for his cronies).

 

[Lawpy]

I completely agree. Trump didn't just appear from nothing. But, again, one doesn't kill the patient to get rid of the cancer. Trump is the wrong treatment, and he's killing us all (except for his cronies).

Idk. He did a lot of dumb things like not taking the virus seriously, openly pushing for hydroxychloroquine and sarcastically suggesting people to inject bleach to cure covid. But i think he's just doing something to avoid tanking the economy.

Like i mean Trump saying stupid stuff was known years before becoming president so can we really be surprised that Trump continues to do stupid things as president? It's the deep situational problems that led him to become elected.

I don't know why a lot of doctors are following Trump's suggestions but that's a major problem. Just like publication bias and the systematic elimination and exclusion of negative studies and trials that has been occurring for decades. Even now people are willing to favor a study that shows a drug having slight beneficial effect for covid 19 while ignoring several negative studies illustrating no effect.

I think Trump saying and doing dumb things isn't surprising but these deep problems need to be repaired. That's really where a lot of my frustration lies (and also my frustration to economic forecasts and bad foundational flaws in the field)

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I’m not gonna go down the rabbit hole on this one. I’m a doctor not a lawyer. But.....

But.... You're going to go down the rabbit hole anyway haha. It's ok, a lot of others have.

I think everyone feels your emotions and agrees something small ended in horrible unnecessary tragedy. But there is nothing clear cut about the legal outcome at this point. Arbery wasn't directly shot for trespassing, possibly burglary, or jogging where not wanted. He ended up shot after making an attack on a guy carrying a loaded shotgun.

Lots of evidence will come out and lots of lawyers will battle, so I don't see how we can already determine if there was or wasn't a legal right to attempt a citizen's arrest (and while carrying a loaded shotgun). Though I agree I wish they left it alone after calling the police, there simply isn't any clarification of the citizen's arrest law requiring the felony be a bank robbery or gun to someone's head.

 

[Ezekiel2517]

The economy doesn't get better just bc you reopen. I thought ppl knew that by now. States don't seem to understand this concept. The economy only comes back when ppl get back to spending and businesses are hiring. None of that happens to any significant degree if a pandemic is not under control. By reopening without an adequate test/trace/isolate plan in place, nCoV will simply have more outbreaks and exploding case counts and death tolls. It will be even more uncontrolled and the economy will tank even worse. So, w/o a plan in place or containment measures, what states are effectively doing by reopening is trading minimal beneficial economic impact for a higher R0.

 

[Lawpy]

The economy doesn't get better just bc you reopen. I thought ppl knew that by now. States don't seem to understand this concept. The economy only comes back when ppl get back to spending and businesses are hiring. None of that happens to any significant degree if a pandemic is not under control. By reopening without an adequate test/trace/isolate plan in place, nCoV will simply have more outbreaks and exploding case counts and death tolls. It will be even more uncontrolled and the economy will tank even worse. So, w/o a plan in place or containment measures, what states are effectively doing by reopening is trading minimal beneficial economic impact for a higher R0.

I think the lockdowns and economic disaster would've easily been avoided if we actually scaled up testing and isolated anyone infected in December onwards. Fears of the virus would be drastically minimized and Trump would have had soaring approval ratings like several other leaders who took the virus seriously. No need for a lockdown unless it's cracking down a cluster region

 

[Lawpy]

And no it's not hindsight bias for me because i've been pushing for this for months. Sadly, I'm not a politician, much less a governor or president so i can't do anything.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Entering that construction site was not a felony. There was no breaking and entering, as that requires breaking a seal, such as a door or window. This was an open construction site, so no seal was broken. There was no felony. Georgia citizens arrest requires the people performing the arrest to witness the crime. They did not. They thought they had seen him previously. There was probably racism involved. This will likely be prosecuted as a felony murder.

The lack of arrest is also concerning. I do not think the suspension of grand juries due to Coronavirus was enough grounds to not arrest, as they could arrest without a grand jury. I do not think the lack of arrest was necessarily racism, but rather cronyism, which is something that should be rooted out, too.

I'm not a lawyer, and you definitely aren't one lol. So many inaccuracies of what you state is GA law, but not worth going into.

I'm fascinated by the discussion but I'm surprised by the blinders. It's so difficult for many to say, I don't know. The vast majority everywhere are either absolutely certain he was jogging ("Can't even go for a damn jog"), curious about a house ("I just looked in a house this weekend"), and KKK "Bubba" shot him for being black, OR, certain that Arbery clearly has been stealing from the neighborhood for a while now and was back to case or steal more.

Does everyone realize the snippet of video is a tiny fraction of the total video? So much evidence has not been shown. We might see many home security videos supporting Arbery as he frequently jogs by in cargo pants on other days, or we might see a construction site video of him shoving a table saw in his back pocket (hyperbole).

Addendum to a previous post for stating incorrect information. The first interpretation of video said Arbery walked up the street and sprinted in the house. Now I'm seeing he walked up the street and walked into the house; ie less suspicious. I suspect jogger is unlikely, casing is likely, just curious about homes is still possible. I don't understand how people who have never met any of these 3 and have seen so little of this case are absolutely certain what happened.

 

[Southpaw]

Addendum to a previous post for stating incorrect information. The first interpretation of video said Arbery walked up the street and sprinted in the house. Now I'm seeing he walked up the street and walked into the house; ie less suspicious. I suspect jogger is unlikely, casing is likely, just curious about homes is still possible. I don't understand how people who have never met either of these 2 and have seen so little of this case are absolutely certain what happened.

The country seems to be highly interested in what Arbery was doing. I hope we find out the whole truth. However, not enough people are asking the following:

1) why did two white guys show up to what wasn't even a shouting match with loaded weapons?
2) why did one of them raise their loaded weapon at Arbery, and why was another on higher ground with a handgun?
3) he was walking/jogging in broad daylight and lived close. He wasn't hard to find and he wasn't hiding. He'd be easy for the police to find and question. Why not let the police do their job?
4) why did the white men remain free until the video was released?

Put another way - we keep asking questions about what the black guy did to deserve such a grossly over exaggerated response. But why aren't we asking questions about the McMichaels? Their background? Their intent? Their criminal history? What were they doing 2-3 minutes before the video started? What was their mindset? Unless it comes out that Arbery had just left he McMichael's house where he killed someone inside, I honestly don't care much about what the rest of the video shows. I mean, I guess I do, but I highly doubt it'll matter much to how the scenario played out and the end result. In my opinion so many people just can't wrap their minds around the fact that they're looking at this situation completely backwards and asking the wrong questions. Just my opinion.

I'm a white male. I walk in my neighborhood daily. I often stop at construction sites. I'm interested. I don't walk inside. No one shows up with shotguns. No one calls the police. No one dies. No one remains free for months until video of my murder is released.

Do you know how you'd respond if someone raised what one can safely assume is a loaded weapon at you? I have no clue. It's never happened to me. But I hope in that situation my mind would quickly, in milliseconds, conclude the following:

'Holy ****, it's broad daylight and this guy has a loaded weapon pointing at me. What the **** is this ******* trying to do exactly? I'm unarmed. I'm in the middle of a public road. I have nowhere to run. I have nowhere to hide. No one is showing up to help me. I must fight!'

Any sort of alternative I don't think I could settle with myself. We will see how this all turns out. But right now people are looking at this wrong and asking the wrong questions.

Oh yeah, citizen's arrest in this scenario is complete and total bull****.

 

[Monty Python]

The economy doesn't get better just bc you reopen. I thought ppl knew that by now. States don't seem to understand this concept. The economy only comes back when ppl get back to spending and businesses are hiring. None of that happens to any significant degree if a pandemic is not under control. By reopening without an adequate test/trace/isolate plan in place, nCoV will simply have more outbreaks and exploding case counts and death tolls. It will be even more uncontrolled and the economy will tank even worse. So, w/o a plan in place or containment measures, what states are effectively doing by reopening is trading minimal beneficial economic impact for a higher R0.

At least six restaurant owners in my city have been on the local evening news recently, being interviewed for their re-opening plans. My state will allow nonessential businesses to reopen in the immediate future, but must limit the number of patrons inside to a small specified xx % of full capacity. None of the restaurants are opening. They’ve done the math; at that small xx% of capacity they won’t even take in sufficient revenue to cover overhead operating expenses, much less make any profit. Some of these family-owned storefront restaurants have thin operating margins, and that’s with a normal/full business volume. So their waitstaff and other employees remain without paychecks, bulk food deliveries remain unordered, sales tax revenue for government operations isn’t generated, and the ripple effects expand outward. What approach is the best trade off; I do not know? Sweden’s? China’s?

 

[dannyboy1]

At least six restaurant owners in my city have been on the local evening news recently, being interviewed for their re-opening plans. My state will allow nonessential businesses to reopen in the immediate future, but must limit the number of patrons inside to a small specified xx % of full capacity. None of the restaurants are opening. They’ve done the math; at that small xx% of capacity they won’t even take in sufficient revenue to cover overhead operating expenses, much less make any profit. Some of these family-owned storefront restaurants have thin operating margins, and that’s with a normal/full business volume. So their waitstaff and other employees remain without paychecks, bulk food deliveries remain unordered, sales tax revenue for government operations isn’t generated, and the ripple effects expand outward. What approach is the best trade off; I do not know? Sweden’s? China’s?

How about this crazy idea. Open up everything at full capacity and let the consumer decide for himself how risky it is. People can vote with their feet and make their own personal decisions. We could call it........freedom.

 

[d9sccr]

I think the lockdowns and economic disaster would've easily been avoided if we actually scaled up testing and isolated anyone infected in December onwards. Fears of the virus would be drastically minimized and Trump would have had soaring approval ratings like several other leaders who took the virus seriously. No need for a lockdown unless it's cracking down a cluster region

From those that want to continue these lockdowns despite the vast majority of health care systems coming nowhere close to capacity, test and trace is the fallback answer as to why we can’t open. My question is to what extent? There’s the Harvard study saying we need 30 million tests/day. I’ve seen others say 50 million and others around 1 million tests/day. There’s no consensus that I can find regarding where we need to be. While the 30 or 50 million would be nice, sheer cost of that is prohibitive. At current cost, you’re looking at $1 trillion for just tests every month. I’m sure tests would get cheaper in that quantity, but how much so? Maybe $1 trillion can get us through 3 or 4 months of testing. I don’t think that’s any more reasonable.

Are these testing models taking into consideration the inherent flaws of the tests? With the horrible sensitivities of these tests, you’re looking at needing to test everyone 3 times to confidently ensure a real negative patient. You can say “develop a better test” as easily as I can “develop a vaccine/cure”. Neither are plans. I doubt that every company would be putting out poor tests if it was easy to make highly sensitive ones. Over the next several months, I’m sure we’ll see better tests, but we have 20% unemployment now. I suspect that’s bound to get worse after the PPP reqs have been met unless the economy roars back (unlikely).

The ability to contact trace is the other big one people are throwing out there. S Korea keeps coming up. How many people are aware that when you test positive you’re removed from your home? There’s literally no chance that flies here. Most of the Asian countries are also using tech to assist contact tracing. I think there’s very little chance that flies here either. If this disease was super deadly akin to Ebola, MAYBE we’d be more likely to give up civil liberties, but that’s not the case. Without technology, for something that’s so covertly infectious and has the ability to live on surfaces for extended periods of time coupled with terrible tests, I think it’s fairly certain to say contact tracing is nearly impossible at this time.

As has been mentioned several times, there’s a very real chance we never develop an effective vaccine. Beyond preventing the overwhelming of hospitals, there’s not much else we can do at this point. It’s time to triage the economic damage while maintaining social distancing and enacting new stay at home orders when hotspots inevitably surface. For healthy people under 35 y/o, nearly everything you do outside your house carries more inherent risk than covid. Come fall, we’re going to want some immunity in the population to help hospital systems out.

And Trump is never going to have soaring high approval ratings in this divisive of a country. Theres a substantial portion of the population that will hate everything he does, just like with Obama. There’s very little difference between what he said and what Cuomo has said. Because this clearly has to be said, Trump didn’t handle parts of this well. I also don’t think there’s a substantial difference between how many if any others would’ve handled a lot of the pandemic. There’s also no state that handled this worse than NY who appears to have seeded the rest of the country. The media coverage has been vastly different and therefore a giant ratings gap. TO BE CLEAR, neither deserve soaring high approval ratings as they both have serious failings through this thing.

 

[Mman]

How about this crazy idea. Open up everything at full capacity and let the consumer decide for himself how risky it is. People can vote with their feet and make their own personal decisions. We could call it........freedom.

so would you have been in favor of doing absolutely nothing at all in the first place? Let consumers fly in from Italy and China and Spain and not quarantine? Let people gather in large stadiums? Keep everything open? Let the consumers decide for themselves?

Because honestly that would have been a better idea in March than it would be now. Back then we probably had a few thousand people infected. Now we have a few million infected. Letting the consumer go wild is a far riskier proposition right now.

Personally I think there should be staged rollback of restrictions, different in each locality as determined by local disease burden and resources, and those places should be ready to go right back to full lockdown if it starts to flare again.

 

[dannyboy1]

so would you have been in favor of doing absolutely nothing at all in the first place? Let consumers fly in from Italy and China and Spain and not quarantine? Let people gather in large stadiums? Keep everything open? Let the consumers decide for themselves?

Yup. Why can’t people decide for themselves? There is a contagious illness going around which has the potential to be lethal. If you are worried about it stay home, put plastic sheeting over the windows and tinfoil around the doorway if it pleases you. If I go to a restaurant or ballpark how does that affect someone who is “self isolating “?

 

[Mman]

Yup. Why can’t people decide for themselves? There is a contagious illness going around which has the potential to be lethal. If you are worried about it stay home, put plastic sheeting over the windows and tinfoil around the doorway if it pleases you. If I go to a restaurant or ballpark how does that affect someone who is “self isolating “?

did you miss the whole part about hospitals getting overwhelmed and people dying from other things that are normally treatable? You go to the ballpark and get in a MVC on the way home and die because the hospital has no capability to take care of you. Yes there are hospitals in this country that have been overwhelmed in spite of all the insane measures we have taken as a country. There are hundreds of other hospitals that have held on and not been overwhelmed because of all of this that would have otherwise not been able to handle it.

I feel like this fits in....

 

[DrZzZz]

Yup. Why can’t people decide for themselves? There is a contagious illness going around which has the potential to be lethal. If you are worried about it stay home, put plastic sheeting over the windows and tinfoil around the doorway if it pleases you. If I go to a restaurant or ballpark how does that affect someone who is “self isolating “?

So assuming that the majority of businesses had stayed open in your scenario, you're also assuming everyone has the financial capability to quit their job if they choose to self isolate. And as Mman pointed out, you're also just accepting that a ton of extra people will die from otherwise treatable conditions as hospitals across the country would undoubtedly turn into mini-NYCs and Italys. I agree that at this stage, not every locale in the country deserves a one-size-fits-all plan, but claiming we should have never isolated and quarantined... I don't even know how to respond to that level of irresponsibility.

 

[chocomorsel]

Yup. Why can’t people decide for themselves? There is a contagious illness going around which has the potential to be lethal. If you are worried about it stay home, put plastic sheeting over the windows and tinfoil around the doorway if it pleases you. If I go to a restaurant or ballpark how does that affect someone who is “self isolating “?

Because the vast majority of people in this country have the IQ of a celery.

And then they will end up at your hospital telling you to do “everything” and “please don’t let me die” while all the while they have been pigging out at Cicis all you can eat pizza and Golden Coral since they had their baby teeth come in with a BMI of 46, aged 36. And they were the ones protesting in their pickup trucks to reopen without masks and waited in line around the corner when Cicis and Golden Coral was reopening at 10am on Monday morning to go pig out with the rest of the morbidly obese.

So yeah, please tube me and save me even though I have been making stupid decisions about my health since I had baby teeth and don’t forget my insulin drip!

 

[dannyboy1]

So assuming that the majority of businesses had stayed open in your scenario, you're also assuming everyone has the financial capability to quit their job if they choose to self isolate. And as Mman pointed out, you're also just accepting that a ton of extra people will die from otherwise treatable conditions as hospitals across the country would undoubtedly turn into mini-NYCs and Italys. I agree that at this stage, not every locale in the country deserves a one-size-fits-all plan, but claiming we should have never isolated and quarantined... I don't even know how to respond to that level of irresponsibility.

The economic situation is forcing us to open up regardless. If it’s OK to open in mid May it was ok to open up in mid March. Nothing substantial has changed on the ground except for the fact that more people will be wearing masks and the weather is nicer.

 

[chocomorsel]

The economic situation is forcing us to open up regardless. If it’s OK to open in mid May it was ok to open up in mid March. Nothing substantial has changed on the ground except for the fact that more people will be wearing masks and the weather is nicer.

Man, I thought you were in the hard hit East Coast.
You can honestly say that after working in an overwhelmed system?
I can honestly agree with Trump that people were dying who’ve never died before and many because of the overwhelmed system.

 

[chocomorsel]

I can’t even imagine the number of unjustified homicides or unjustified arrests or unjustified police shooting acquittals that have resulted solely from subjective perception like this. You really think a nosy black guy in the Deep South in a white neighborhood might not run for any other reason than he must’ve done something criminal?

Seriously. I just saw a guy who was looking around. What kind of body language did he have?
Anyway, I gave up. @pgg is like a dog with a bone.
And like @Southpaw said, people automatically want to assume the black guy did something bad to lead to that severe a confrontation and keep bringing up his past criminal record as proof he was up to something.
So sad.

 

[dannyboy1]

Because the vast majority of people in this country have the IQ of a celery.

And then they will end up at your hospital telling you to do “everything” and “please don’t let me die” while all the while they have been pigging out at Cicis all you can eat pizza and Golden Coral since they had their baby teeth come in with a BMI of 46, aged 36. And they were the ones protesting in their pickup trucks to reopen without masks and waited in line around the corner when Cicis and Golden Coral was reopening at 10am on Monday morning to go pig out with the rest of the morbidly obese.

So yeah, please tube me and save me even though I have been making stupid decisions about my health since I had baby teeth and don’t forget my insulin drip!

Man, I thought you were in the hard hit East Coast.
You can honestly say that after working in an overwhelmed system?
I can honestly agree with Trump that people were dying who’ve never died before and many because of the overwhelmed system.

Do you have a solution? Mass unemployment is unsustainable. Guess what, it will come for us as well with a vastly declined case volume and a large number of the cases we do have on Medicaid because they lost their job. Something tells me when people on this board are filling out their unemployment forms their opinions will change drastically....

 

[chocomorsel]

Do you have a solution? Mass unemployment is unsustainable. Guess what, it will come for us as well with a vastly declined case volume and a large number of the cases we do have on Medicaid because they lost their job. Something tells me when people on this board are filling out their unemployment forms their opinions will change drastically....

Well, the slow methodical reopening while trying to prevent mass congestion seems like a much better solution than the free for all and let the chips fall where they may plan you are suggesting.

 

[pjl]

How about this crazy idea. Open up everything at full capacity and let the consumer decide for himself how risky it is. People can vote with their feet and make their own personal decisions. We could call it........freedom.

Google News

Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.

news.google.com

 

[vector2]

Do you have a solution? Mass unemployment is unsustainable. Guess what, it will come for us as well with a vastly declined case volume and a large number of the cases we do have on Medicaid because they lost their job. Something tells me when people on this board are filling out their unemployment forms their opinions will change drastically....

I'll just keep repeating it like a hundred times just in case it might sink in for everyone who doesn't get it (it probably won't).

The CDC guidelines called for 14 days of declining cases along with a couple other reasonably achievable goals. The "indefinite closing" strawman you're railing against has been advocated by essentially no one in power.

 

[deleted171991]

The economy doesn't get better just bc you reopen. I thought ppl knew that by now. States don't seem to understand this concept. The economy only comes back when ppl get back to spending and businesses are hiring. None of that happens to any significant degree if a pandemic is not under control. By reopening without an adequate test/trace/isolate plan in place, nCoV will simply have more outbreaks and exploding case counts and death tolls. It will be even more uncontrolled and the economy will tank even worse. So, w/o a plan in place or containment measures, what states are effectively doing by reopening is trading minimal beneficial economic impact for a higher R0.

My answer is not to Ezekiel2517, it's mostly to the very stable geniuses who thumbed down his intelligent post.

(Mass) Psychology is essential when talking about macroeconomics. That's also why people spend less in a recession (not just because they have less money). People who were children during the Great Recession of the 1930s were traumatized by it for life, to the level that they were savers not spenders till they died, regardless how big their bank accounts were. The current pandemic will also have long-term psychological consequences.

Thinking that reopening will just make everything go back to normal is beyond wishful. It's stupid and reckless, like Trump. Humans don't function like that. They will be very cautious for a good amount of time, like coming out of the bunker after a nuclear attack. There is still a war out there; it's not over. One can see it very well in Germany, where reopening has tripled their low case numbers, alarming the population, and the government is now making steps back.

Mark my words: the greatest hit to the stock market did not come when all this started. It's still to come, when investors realize that consumers will not go back to their old habits, and that the GDP lost 20-30% for possibly years to come.

 

[vector2]

I'm praying this pediatric syndrome is a sporadic aberration and not a sentinel event like when turmp said "The 15 cases within a couple days is going to be down to close to zero"

 

[chocomorsel]

Guess Germany is not doing anything so special anymore compared to six or eight weeks ago when they were the least hit in Europe with less than 1% death rate and everyone was asking why they were so different including me.

 

[dannyboy1]

My answer is not to Ezekiel2517, it's mostly to the very stable geniuses who thumbed down his intelligent post.

(Mass) Psychology is essential when talking about macroeconomics. That's also why people spend less in a recession (not just because they have less money). People who were children during the Great Recession of the 1930s were traumatized by it for life, to the level that they were savers not spenders till they died, regardless how big their bank accounts were. The current pandemic will also have long-term psychological consequences.

Thinking that reopening will just make everything go back to normal is beyond wishful. It's stupid and reckless, like Trump. Humans don't function like that. They will be very cautious for a good amount of time, like coming out of the bunker after a nuclear attack. There is still a war out there; it's not over. One can see it very well in Germany, where reopening has tripled their low case numbers, alarming the population, and the government is now making steps back.

Mark my words: the greatest hit to the stock market did not come when all this started. It's still to come, when investors realize that consumers will not go back to their old habits, and that the GDP lost 20-30% for possibly years to come.

Agree with this. I did not buy the first dip and am waiting for the real crash

 

[deleted171991]

I'm praying this pediatric syndrome is a sporadic aberration and not a sentinel event like when turmp said "The 15 cases within a couple days is going to be down to close to zero"

There is no smoke without fire. This Kawasaki-like syndrome is most likely related to some Covid mutation.

 

[vector2]

Because the vast majority of people in this country have the IQ of a celery.

 

[deleted171991]

Let me bring up again IQ, which is basically a measurement of intelligence by speed of association and pattern recognition (which has been outlawed in the US for employment reasons, basically because the *****s in the majority were afraid they would be unmasked).

Average IQ is about 100-105. Standard deviation is about 15. The army does not hire anybody under 85 (if I remember correctly), because they are so dumb they are dangerous with a weapon in hand. That's one standard deviation under the mean, i.e. 0.5* (100%-68%) = 16% of the population. So 1 in 6 is a ***** for military purposes, as dumb as a rock.

How do the rest of 34% under 100 fare? Well, it's not so good. Even the 100 IQ person is relatively dumb, as in good luck teaching them calculus, or any advanced mathematics. These are not logical beings. They are like some old slow counting machine, not like a modern CPU. To them, if A=B, B=C, C=D, and so on till Z, A will NEVER equal Z. They get lost. It's not that it will take them long time to get to A=Z, it's that they will never get there. Hence they HATE Math. Their power of association is weak, their pattern recognition is weak, their ability of deriving new thoughts by (correct) association is very low. They are the sheep, not the inventors or innovators. If their IQ is high enough, they become great at BS-ing, as a compensatory mechanism, especially when working among high IQ people.

So don't be surprised that there are *****s doing *****ic things and thinking everywhere. The average human is dumb and hateful. Do you still want that red pill?

 

[deleted87051]

Let me bring up again IQ, which is basically a measurement of intelligence by speed of association and pattern recognition (which has been outlawed in the US for employment reasons, basically because the *****s in the majority were afraid they would be unmasked).

Average IQ is about 100-105. Standard deviation is about 15. The army does not hire anybody under 85 (if I remember correctly), because they are so dumb they are dangerous with a weapon in hand. That's one standard deviation under the mean, i.e. 0.5* (100%-68%) = 16% of the population. So one out of 6 is a ***** for military purposes, as dumb as a rock.

How do the rest of 34% under 100 fare? Well, it's not so good. Even the 100 IQ person is relatively dumb, as in good luck teaching them calculus, or any advanced mathematics. These are not logical beings. They are like some old slow counting machine, not like a modern CPU. To them, if A=B, B=C, C=D, and so on till Z, A will NEVER equal Z. They get lost. It's not that it will take them long time to get to A=Z, it's that they will never get there. Hence they HATE Math. Their power of association is weak, their pattern recognition is weak, their ability of deriving new thoughts by (correct) association is very low. They are the sheep, not the inventors or innovators. If their IQ is high enough, they become great at BS-ing, as a compensatory mechanism, especially when working among high IQ people.

So don't be surprised that there are *****s doing *****ic things and thinking everywhere. The average human is dumb and hateful. Do you still want that red pill?

There is benign dumb and malignant dumb. Social media has become a tool used to amplify the voice of the malignant dumb.

 

[deleted87051]

First graders back to school in China with social distancing headgear.

 

[deleted171991]

First graders back to school in China with social distancing headgear.

View attachment 306268

That headgear is pure genius, although it's incomplete.

 

[Spikebd]

Universal basic income and OnlyFans. The present and future method of subsistence for many US citizens in the post-COVID world.

 

[dannyboy1]

Let me bring up again IQ, which is basically a measurement of intelligence by speed of association and pattern recognition (which has been outlawed in the US for employment reasons, basically because the *****s in the majority were afraid they would be unmasked).

Average IQ is about 100-105. Standard deviation is about 15. The army does not hire anybody under 85 (if I remember correctly), because they are so dumb they are dangerous with a weapon in hand. That's one standard deviation under the mean, i.e. 0.5* (100%-68%) = 16% of the population. So 1 in 6 is a ***** for military purposes, as dumb as a rock.

How do the rest of 34% under 100 fare? Well, it's not so good. Even the 100 IQ person is relatively dumb, as in good luck teaching them calculus, or any advanced mathematics. These are not logical beings. They are like some old slow counting machine, not like a modern CPU. To them, if A=B, B=C, C=D, and so on till Z, A will NEVER equal Z. They get lost. It's not that it will take them long time to get to A=Z, it's that they will never get there. Hence they HATE Math. Their power of association is weak, their pattern recognition is weak, their ability of deriving new thoughts by (correct) association is very low. They are the sheep, not the inventors or innovators. If their IQ is high enough, they become great at BS-ing, as a compensatory mechanism, especially when working among high IQ people.

This sounds like me. That’s why anesthesia was perfect. Pulse ox high=good
Pulse ox low= bad
Fix it if low.

 

[deleted171991]

There is benign dumb and malignant dumb. Social media has become a tool used to amplify the voice of the malignant dumb.

Most benign dumb will become malignant, when pressured, e.g.. in a crisis. Hence the scapegoating of various minorities, the sheep-like behavior, the mass hysteria etc.

That's why we stress test everything and everybody, when we really want to unearth their limits. Most people with heart failure are asymptomatic at baseline. Most dumb people may seem downright innocent until one starts probing, and the monsters come out.

 

[deleted171991]

The Conspiracy Theorists Are Winning

America is losing its grip on Enlightenment values and reality itself.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[chocomorsel]

Those tweets are so hilarious! Thank you.

 

[chocomorsel]

First graders back to school in China with social distancing headgear.

View attachment 306268

Is this real?

 

[deleted171991]

Not a crony government:

Private jet company founded by Trump donor gets $27 million bailout

A private jet company founded by Trump donor Clay Lacy received nearly $27 million under the Treasury Department's aviation aid program.

www.cnbc.com

But, hey, let's try to look as if we worry about all those people who can't work for him for peanuts, because of the shutdown.

I am beginning to believe in the leftist idea that workers should automatically have a 10-20% participation to profit, by law.

 

[deleted171991]

Pentagon fires its point person for Defense Production Act

One reason for her ouster may have been due to challenges leveraging the Defense Production Act.

www.politico.com